Stocks/NEU

NEU

NewMarket Corporation
Basic Materials·Chemicals - Specialty
$773.58
$7.1B market cap
Claude Rating
6/10SLIGHT BUY
Revenue
$2.7B
Free Cash Flow
$483.7M
Rev Growth
-4.5%
FCF Margin
18.0%
P/FCF
14.7x
EV/FCF
16.7x
Fwd EV/EBITDA
11.8x
Fair Value
$720.00
Upside
-6.9%

NewMarket Corporation, through its subsidiaries, engages in the petroleum additives business. The company offers lubricant additives for use in various vehicle and industrial applications, including engine oils, transmission fluids, off-road powertrain and hydraulic systems, gear oils, hydraulic oils, turbine oils, and other applications where metal-to-metal moving parts are utilized; engine oil additives designed for passenger cars, motorcycles, on and off-road heavy duty commercial equipment,

2-Year Price History

$737.72+42.9%
$500$550$600$650$700$750$800volMay 24Sep 24Jan 25May 25Sep 25Jan 26May 26

Quarterly Financials & Projections

Quarterly Waterfall ($ M)
PeriodRevEBITDAOpInNIOCFFCFCapExCashDebtSharesROICIntCovEV/EBITDA
Est2028-Q1685.0181.5--116.5--102.8-24.01,030----------
Est2027-Q4660.0158.4--92.4--138.6-23.1927.3----------
Est2027-Q3690.0179.4--107.0--117.3-22.8788.7----------
Est2027-Q2700.0185.5--115.5--133.0-22.4671.4----------
Est2027-Q1675.0175.5--111.4--97.9-23.6538.4----------
Est2026-Q4650.0152.8--87.8--130.0-22.8440.5----------
Est2026-Q3680.0173.4--102.0--108.8-21.8310.5----------
Est2026-Q2695.0180.7--111.2--128.6-20.9201.7----------
Act2026-Q1669.7174.6143.2118.1124.099.7-24.473.21,0209.421.0%19.9x10.3x
Act2025-Q4635.4142.1110.081.3145.2117.2-28.077.6961.69.414.9%14.4x12.4x
Act2025-Q3690.3176.7130.7100.3142.4122.1-20.3102.5923.99.419.2%21.1x10.0x
Act2025-Q2698.5186.9143.2111.2161.1144.8-16.370.3918.49.422.2%17.4x7.9x
Act2025-Q1701.0203.6159.9126.0120.3107.3-13.0118.31,0659.524.5%19.0x7.4x
Act2024-Q4654.7178.0132.8110.7185.2170.6-14.677.51,0599.622.6%15.3x8.2x
Act2024-Q3725.0213.1169.5132.3116.6102.4-14.280.31,1589.627.2%15.1x8.5x
Act2024-Q2710.2188.2147.0111.6115.0100.0-15.087.61,2469.624.1%11.8x11.0x
Act2024-Q1696.7179.2140.8107.7102.889.3-13.6117.11,3559.622.7%11.4x10.3x
Act2023-Q4643.4132.1101.380.4171.6158.1-13.5111.9751.49.624.0%18.6x8.2x
Act2023-Q3667.2160.8132.4111.3142.8134.0-8.8102.6842.59.634.2%17.4x7.7x
Act2023-Q2685.1155.2124.299.6152.5138.4-14.1130.9978.49.629.6%15.1x7.8x
Act2023-Q1702.8156.2125.097.6109.998.0-11.970.11,0189.629.7%14.5x7.8x
Act2022-Q4682.6138.8109.590.592.776.9-15.868.71,0899.827.6%13.4x8.6x
Act2022-Q3696.1109.278.763.2-8.4-21.0-12.672.01,07210.020.2%13.1x--
Act2022-Q2723.6113.383.666.517.62.4-15.279.5977.810.121.8%16.0x--
Act2022-Q1662.6104.083.359.36.8-5.8-12.684.6910.310.323.9%11.1x--

AI Analysis

LLM Evaluations

Claude6/10SLIGHT BUYFV: $720.00

NewMarket is a high-quality, capital-light specialty chemicals compounder generating 25%+ ROIC and 17-18% FCF margins in a structurally oligopolistic market. The stock trades at ~13x TTM P/FCF and ~15x EV/FCF, a reasonable but not compelling valuation for a business with limited organic growth prospects. The core Petroleum Additives franchise benefits from deep customer integration and high switching costs, but faces a secular headwind from the EV transition that caps the long-term growth runway. The Specialty Materials segment (AMPAC + Calca) is a promising diversification play into defense/space, but at ~9% of revenue it's too small to move the needle near-term, and quarterly volatility makes it hard to underwrite. Aggressive buybacks (~2% annual share reduction) funded partly by debt are accretive but introduce balance sheet risk if the cycle worsens. Net-net, this is a solid hold — a well-run business at a fair price with limited upside catalyst and a long-duration secular risk in the background.

Catalyst Accelerating Specialty Materials profitability as AMPAC capacity expansion completes and Calca synergies materialize, potentially re-rating the multiple if this segment reaches 15-20% of operating profit. Also, stabilization/recovery in petroleum additives volumes would demonstrate the ICE demand plateau is further out than feared.
Risk Faster-than-expected decline in ICE vehicle lubricant demand as EV adoption accelerates globally, compressing the core Petroleum Additives revenue base that generates ~91% of sales and the vast majority of operating profit.
Trend
DETERIORATING
Mgmt
8/10
Quarter
4/10
Exp. Move
-3.0%

Latest Earnings Call

Transcript Summary

NewMarket Corporation's Q1 2026 results showed a slight decline in performance, with net income falling to $118 million from $126 million in Q1 2025. The Petroleum Additives segment experienced a 7% drop in shipments, resulting in $610 million in sales, driven by market softening and a strategic exit from low-margin business. Despite these volume losses and geopolitical pressures from the Middle East affecting logistics and raw material costs, operating margins remained stable. The Specialty Materials segment saw sales growth to $58 million following the Calca Solutions acquisition, but operating profit declined to $12 million due to shipment mix timing at AMPAC. NewMarket demonstrated a strong commitment to shareholder returns, distributing $154 million through dividends and buybacks, while maintaining a conservative 1.2x net debt-to-EBITDA ratio. Management remains focused on operational efficiency and long-term value, navigating a complex global environment through price adjustments and production rebalancing. The company anticipates continued volatility in its Specialty Materials segment but remains confident in its core technology-driven products and supply chain capabilities.

Valuation & Metrics

Market Stats

Price$773.58
Market Cap$7.1B
Enterprise Value$8.1B
P/S Ratio2.6x
P/FCF14.7x
EV/FCF16.7x
FCF Margin (TTM)18.0%
FCF Yield6.8%
Dividend Yield (TTM)--
Annual Dilution-0.7%
CurrencyUSD

TTM Financial Snapshot

Revenue$2.7B
Net Income$410.9M
Free Cash Flow$483.7M

Revenue Growth (YoY)-4.5%
EBITDA Margin25.3%
Net Margin15.3%
FCF Margin18.0%
CapEx % of Revenue3.3%
SBC % of Revenue0.0%
ROIC19.3%
WC Change % Rev19.4%
Interest Coverage18.0x

DCF Fair Value Estimate

$471.60
-39.0% upside
Fair Enterprise Value$5.4B
− Net Debt$947M
= Fair Equity$4.4B
Revenue Growth1.3% → 1.5%
FCF Margin18.0% → 17.0%
Discount Rate12.0%
Terminal EV/FCF14.0x

Forward Outlook & Risk

Short Interest

Short % of Float7.7%
Short Shares0.6M
Days to Cover4.3
Change (vs Prior)+10.3%
Short % Float History
7.70%+6.30pp
2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%04-3007-1509-1511-1401-1504-30

Options

Call IV (ATM)26%
Put IV (ATM)30%
ATM Spread1.1%
Call $OI (near money)$220K
Put $OI (near money)$72K
ATM ExpiryJuly 17, 2026 (56D)
ATM Strike$735.0
Major Expirations3
Near-money chain · July 17, 2026
StrikeCall Bid/AskCall OIPut Bid/AskPut OI
$720.00$38.00/$45.800$20.00/$28.100
$725.00$35.00/$42.900$22.00/$30.000
$730.00$32.00/$40.500$23.00/$32.300
$735.00$29.00/$37.300$26.00/$34.600
$740.00$26.00/$34.900$28.00/$37.000
$745.00$24.00/$32.700$31.00/$39.700
$750.00$21.00/$30.000$33.20/$42.000
$755.00$19.00/$27.600$36.00/$45.000
Snapshot: 2026-05-22

Forward Projections & Estimates

NTM Revenue Growth+0.2%
Forward FCF Margin17.2%
Forward EBITDA Margin25.3%
Forward P/FCF15.3x
Forward EV/FCF17.3x
Forward Int. Coverage18.7x
Model Risk Score4/10
Bankruptcy Odds1%
Est. Borrow Rate5.0%
Terminal EV/FCF14.0x
LT Growth1.5%
LT FCF Margin17.0%

Employees

Headcount2,060
Revenue / Employee$1,307,738
Gross Profit / Employee$408,862
2022: 500 → 2023: 2,000 → 2024: 2,060 → 2025: 2,050 (60% CAGR)

Institutional Ownership

Headline & net flow

NET SELLING

In Q1 2026 so far (quarter still filing), institutions are net sellers — bought 12.6% of float, sold 15.1%. 2 filers moved >1% of shares (1 buying, 1 selling).

Net flow · Q1 2026still filing
-2.5% of float (net)
Bought 12.6% · Sold 15.1%
381 filers reported (last quarter: 424)

Ownership composition

Active
33.7%(-0.2% YoY)
358 filers
hedge / family / endowment
Retail funds
Fidelity, Schwab, 401(k)
Passive
13.7%(-4.0% YoY)
6 filers
Vanguard, iShares, SPDR
Market makers
0.1%(-0.1% YoY)
7 filers
Citadel, Susquehanna
Insiders
1.6%
Form 4 — latest per insider
0%25%50%75%100%2022-062023-032023-122024-092025-062026-03
ActiveRetail fundsPassiveMarket makersRetail direct

Top holders

Fund$ valueCost basisΔ QoQΔ YoYα lifeFund AUM
BlackRock, Inc.Passive$459M$547.89+$36.3M+$23.7M-0.2%$5.69T
LONDON CO OF VIRGINIA$296M$458.66−$20.4M−$72.9M+0.6%$16.23B
LSV ASSET MANAGEMENT$171M$505.08−$929K+$39.3M+0.0%$46.40B
Boston Partners$161M$640.95+$161M+$161M+0.5%$95.40B
STATE STREET CORPPassive$150M$480.19+$1.7M−$7.2M-0.2%$2.89T
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LPPassive$125M$481.85+$7.8M+$12.7M-0.4%$480.92B
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLCPassive$118M$591.82+$5.8M+$34.9M+2.3%$1.61T
AMERICAN CENTURY COMPANIES INC$108M$594.52+$26.5M+$40.7M+0.3%$193.48B
CAISSE DE DEPOT ET PLACEMENT DU QUEBEC$85.9M$743.22+$11.5M+$76.0M-0.7%$62.43B
AQR CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC$75.1M$697.59−$5.5M+$42.2M-0.2%$218.19B
CHARLES SCHWAB INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC$65.9M$642.87+$4.5M+$12.8M+1.0%$645.81B
UBS Group AG$63.4M$599.25+$55.8M+$55.2M-0.3%$562.11B
MORGAN STANLEY$59.9M$527.96+$8.5M+$27.6M-0.3%$1.65T
MILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC$55.1M$549.77+$33.7M+$50.8M-0.5%$127.40B
NORTHERN TRUST CORPPassive$52.7M$489.71+$1.1M−$666K-0.2%$755.34B
Bank of New York Mellon Corp$48.9M$559.28−$6.8M−$8.9M+0.5%$543.21B
Invesco Ltd.$47.9M$522.62−$492K−$20.5M-0.2%$652.04B
PRICE T ROWE ASSOCIATES INC /MD/$45.0M$732.67+$1.8M+$42.1M-0.2%$864.93B
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO$35.2M$537.71+$1.2M−$141K-0.2%$1.47T
ARROWSTREET CAPITAL, LIMITED PARTNERSHIP$35.0M$640.95+$33.2M+$35.0M+0.1%$184.72B
Cost basis is a volume-weighted estimate from accumulation periods within our 13F history; holders who built their position before our window started will show a stale basis. % above the cost basis is the unrealized gain at the current price.

Trading behavior

Smart-money alpha (lifetime, %/qtr)NEUTRAL
Holders
+0.10%
avg per quarter
Holders (ex-self)
+0.09%
excl. this stock
Buyers (this Q)
+0.04%
130 buyers · $0.51B in
Sellers (this Q)
-0.19%
137 sellers · $0.90B out
alpha coverage: 100% of $ has a lifetime-alpha record
Holder behavior on this stocksource: stock
On big dips (−10%+)
-10.3%
how holders react when this stock falls
On quiet Qs
-2.4%
−10% to +10% baseline
On rallies (+10%+)
-14.8%
how they react when this stock rises
Holders' portfolio flow this Q
+5.4%
inflows — adds are organic
Sellers' portfolio flow this Q
+2.3%
Sellers grew AUM elsewhere — opinionated cut of this stock.
▸ Compare to holder-profile behavior (across all their stocks)
Holder dip (any stock)
-4.1%
Holder mid (any stock)
-1.9%
Holder rally (any stock)
-4.3%

Top Holders Over Time

5-year share-count history (top 10 holders by peak, incl. exited) + price

0668K1.3M2.0M2.7M$279$415$550$685$8212021-062022-062023-062024-062025-062026-03
hover the chart for per-quarter detailprice (right axis)
BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/50KLONDON CO OF VIRGINIA461KLSV ASSET MANAGEMENT266KBoston Partners251KAllspring Global Investments Holdings, LLC13KInvesco Ltd.75KAQR CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC118KAMERICAN CENTURY COMPANIES INC169KPacer Advisors, Inc.FIRST TRUST ADVISORS LP30K

Corporate

Executive Compensation (2023-2025)

Direct Pay$26.3M
Incentive & Other$26.0M
Total Compensation$52.2M
% of Revenue0.6%

Insider Trading (last 12mo)

Open-market only (Form 4 P-Purchase + S-Sale). Excludes grants, option exercises, tax withholding, gifts.
Officers & directors
Buys ($, 12mo)
$248K
1 txn · 1 insider · 400 sh
Sells ($, 12mo)
$0
0 txns · 0 insiders · 0 sh
Recent transactions
DateSideInsiderTitleSharesPriceDollarsOwned $
2026-02-24BUYXu Tingdirector400$619.21$248K$575K

Order Flow (FINRA, ~3w lag)

11.3%retail-4.0pp
25.4%dark+4.2pp
week of 2026-04-27
5%10%15%20%25%30%24-1125-0225-0525-0825-1126-0226-04retail (non-ATS)dark (ATS)
Off-exchange volume from FINRA. Retail = non-ATS (wholesaler PFOF + broker internalization). Dark = ATS (dark-pool crossing networks, institutional). Lit-exchange = remainder.

Revenue Breakdown

Revenue Segments

By Product (2026-Q1)
Petroleum Additives$609.8M-6%
Specialty Materials$58.1M+8%
Other Operating Segment$1.8M+5%
By Geography (2026-Q1)
UNITED STATES$257.4M-5%
Europe, Middle East, Africa, India$202.6M+1%
Asia Pacific$133.2M-10%
Other Foreign$76.5M-6%

Filing Risk Analysis

Filing Risk Scores

NewMarket Corporation: Debt-Fueled Buybacks and Pension Accounting Distortions Mask Operating Contraction

Overall Risk
3/10
Fraud
1/10
Dilution
1/10
Insolvency
2/10
Earnings Overstated
4/10
Hidden Liabilities
3/10
Legal
3/10
Audit Warnings
1/10
Hidden Upside
8/10
Contextually Acceptable
9/10

Counter-Thesis

Counter-Thesis & Recent News

📰 Recent News

NewMarket reported a year-over-year decline in Q1 2026 results (released April 22, 2026), with EPS falling to $12.62 from $13.26 in the prior year. Total net sales dropped 4.5% to $669.7 million, primarily driven by a 7% decline in shipment volumes in the core petroleum additives segment. Management cited persistent 'market softness' and strategic decisions to exit low-margin business as the primary drivers for the volume contraction (Source: MarketBeat, GuruFocus).

🐻 Bear Case

The bear case centers on a structural decline in the core petroleum additives business, which accounts for roughly 95% of total revenue. As the global automotive industry shifts toward electric vehicles (EVs), the long-term demand for internal combustion engine (ICE) lubricants and fuel additives faces an existential threat. Recent financials show a 'ceiling to earnings growth' with FY 2025 EPS of $44.44 trailing the $48.22 recorded in 2024, suggesting the company's multi-year growth story has peaked (Source: Simply Wall St, Seeking Alpha).

🚩 Red Flags

A key red flag is the recent rating downgrade from Weiss Ratings, which lowered NEU from 'Buy' to 'Hold' in April 2026. Additionally, the company is experiencing margin compression (slipping from 16.5% to 15.4% in late 2025) and higher unit costs resulting from lower production volumes at manufacturing plants. Net debt increased to $866.5 million as of March 31, 2026, up from $805.8 million at year-end 2025 (Source: MarketBeat, Business Wire).

⚔️ Competitive Threats

NEU faces intense pricing pressure from its primary customers—major oil companies and fuel blenders—who are increasingly cost-conscious. External pressures include the 'impact of tariffs' and shifting international trade relations, which management explicitly cited as a threat to profitability. Furthermore, the Specialty Materials segment, intended to be a growth engine, saw operating profit contract sharply in Q1 2026 due to an unfavorable product mix (Source: The Motley Fool, NewMarket 10-K).

💬 Customer Sentiment

While the company maintains high research-driven stickiness, sentiment is impacted by 'softness in the market' among its customer base. The company's strategic move to 'reduce low-margin business' indicates that NEU is being forced to walk away from certain customer segments where it can no longer compete profitably, reflecting a weakening hand in negotiations with large-scale buyers (Source: Intellectia AI, Seeking Alpha).

Full Earnings Call Transcript

Full Earnings Call Transcript — Q1 • 2026-04-23

Operator: Greetings. Welcome to the NewMarket Corporation Conference Call and Webcast to review First Quarter 2026 Financial Results. [Operator Instructions] Please note, this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the conference over to your host, Tim Fitzgerald, CFO at NewMarket. You may begin.
Timothy Fitzgerald: Thank you, and thanks to everyone for joining me this afternoon. As a reminder, some of the statements made during this conference call may be forward-looking. Relevant factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those forward-looking statements are contained in our earnings release and in our SEC filings, including our most recent Form 10-K. During this call, we will also discuss the non-GAAP financial measures included in our earnings release. The earnings release, which can be found on our website, includes a reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measures to the comparable GAAP financial measures. We filed our 10-Q for the first quarter of 2026 today and it contains significantly more details on the operations and performance of our company. Today, I will be referring to the data that was included in last night's press release. Net income for the first quarter of 2026 was $118 million or $12.62 per share compared to net income of $126 million or $13.26 per share for the first quarter of 2025. Petroleum Additives sales for the first quarter of 2026 were $610 million compared to $646 million for the same period in 2025. Petroleum Additives operating profit for the first quarter of 2026 was $135 million compared to operating profit of $142 million in 2025. The decrease in operating profit was mainly due to the decline in shipments of 7% due to softening in the market and our strategic decision to reduce low-margin business. However, we are encouraged by the increase in shipments we observed in the latter part of the first quarter of 2026. Despite the decline in shipments in the first quarter, our operating profit margin remained strong. We are very pleased with the performance of our Petroleum Additives business during the first quarter of 2026 and the work done by our team to operate within a rapidly changing environment due to the conflict in the Middle East. We have implemented price adjustments to account for the escalating cost of raw materials, utilities and logistics, and we have rebalanced our global production to make sure we are meeting customer demands in a dynamically evolving market. Despite these challenges, we remain committed to improving efficiency and managing operating costs. Our focus continues to be on investing in technology and our supply network to meet customer demands, enhancing our operational efficiency and improving our portfolio profitability. We report the financial results of our AMPAC business and our newly acquired Calca Solutions business in our Specialty Materials segment. Specialty Materials sales for the first quarter of 2026 were $58 million compared to $54 million for the same period in 2025. The increase in sales was mainly due to the inclusion of the Calca business, which was acquired on October 1, 2025, offset by a shift in shipment mix at AMPAC versus the first quarter of last year. Specialty Materials operating profit for the first quarter of 2026 was $12 million compared to $23 million for the first quarter of 2025. The decline in operating profit was mainly due to the change in quarterly shipment mix at AMPAC compared to last year. As previously stated, we will see substantial variation in quarterly results for the Specialty Materials segment on an ongoing basis due to the nature of the business. Our company generated solid cash flows throughout the first quarter, which allowed us to return $154 million to our shareholders through share repurchases of $126 million and dividends of $28 million. As of March 31, 2026, our net debt-to-EBITDA ratio was 1.2x. As we look ahead to 2026, we are committed to making decisions that promote long-term value for our shareholders and customers while staying focused on our long-term objectives. We believe that the core principles guiding our business, a long-term perspective, a safety-first culture, customer-focused solutions, technology-driven products and a world-class supply chain will continue to benefit all of our stakeholders. That concludes our planned comments. We are available for questions via e-mail or by phone. So please feel free to contact me directly. Thank you all again, and we will talk to you next quarter.
Operator: Thank you. This does conclude today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.