Stocks/NAT

NAT

Nordic American Tankers Limited
Industrials·Marine Shipping
$5.15
$1.1B market cap
Claude Rating
3/10SELL
Revenue
$292.4M
Free Cash Flow
$-116.6M
Rev Growth
+15.4%
FCF Margin
-39.9%
P/FCF
--
EV/FCF
--
Fwd EV/EBITDA
11.9x
Fair Value
$3.25
Upside
-36.9%

Nordic American Tankers Limited, a tanker company, acquires and charters double-hull tankers in Bermuda and internationally. It operates a fleet of 24 Suezmax crude oil tankers. The company was formerly known as Nordic American Tanker Shipping Limited and changed its name to Nordic American Tankers Limited in June 2011. The company was incorporated in 1995 and is based in Hamilton, Bermuda.

2-Year Price History

$5.40+68.2%
$2.0$3.0$4.0$5.0$6.0volJun 24Oct 24Jan 25May 25Sep 25Jan 26May 26

Quarterly Financials & Projections

Quarterly Waterfall ($ M)
PeriodRevEBITDAOpInNIOCFFCFCapExCashDebtSharesROICIntCovEV/EBITDA
Est2027-Q468.017.7--0.3---3.4-10.263.6----------
Est2027-Q370.019.6--1.4--1.4-5.667.0----------
Est2027-Q275.024.8--5.3--3.8-7.565.6----------
Est2027-Q172.021.6--2.9---14.4-21.661.9----------
Est2026-Q478.026.5--6.2---11.7-19.576.3----------
Est2026-Q380.028.8--8.0--8.0-2.488.0----------
Est2026-Q288.037.0--14.1--19.4-1.880.0----------
Est2026-Q182.031.2--9.8--14.8-1.260.6----------
Act2025-Q485.934.620.411.715.414.7-0.845.9424.1211.816.4%3.7x10.3x
Act2025-Q375.022.46.8-2.83.93.9-0.067.6433.1211.85.2%2.3x9.9x
Act2025-Q266.723.40.4-0.91.4-134.0-135.494.5442.3211.80.3%2.5x8.6x
Act2025-Q164.824.91.44.3-0.9-1.1-0.3103.2340.5211.81.1%3.4x6.3x
Act2024-Q474.422.38.81.319.419.4-0.139.2269.7210.58.4%3.1x7.5x
Act2024-Q382.230.616.28.734.834.4-0.540.5277.8208.815.2%4.0x7.2x
Act2024-Q297.843.429.321.632.830.9-1.947.6286.2208.825.8%5.5x7.4x
Act2024-Q195.337.223.115.137.637.4-0.250.0293.7208.819.7%4.6x7.6x
Act2023-Q459.338.024.617.513.4-59.8-73.233.4301.6208.820.2%5.3x6.0x
Act2023-Q378.527.714.57.527.026.8-0.169.2255.2208.813.2%3.7x4.8x
Act2023-Q299.147.234.226.848.047.9-0.196.5279.7208.828.1%6.1x4.5x
Act2023-Q1121.467.754.746.951.150.9-0.256.6284.9208.843.9%8.4x5.0x
Act2022-Q471.156.838.136.040.535.4-5.259.6306.6208.830.0%7.1x8.9x
Act2022-Q3104.929.616.010.0-2.5-2.9-0.437.2332.7206.912.5%4.1x--
Act2022-Q274.914.21.8-4.0-5.3-77.6-72.335.6355.4201.01.4%2.5x--
Act2022-Q149.3-8.0-19.6-27.0-8.6-26.2-17.637.1302.3191.1-17.0%-1.3x--
Historical Valuation

Multiples vs the company's own history — cheap or rich relative to itself? Historical fiscal years, then TTM, then forward projections (E). Forward rows hold today's price against projected earnings, so the multiple compresses if the company grows into it.

YearPriceRev GrEBITDA %EBITDAEV/EBITDAEV/FCFP/EP/S
20222.0730.8%938.9×n/m38.2×1.9×
20233.24+19.4%50.4%1816.0×16.6×8.3×2.3×
20242.15-2.4%38.2%1347.5×8.2×16.4×2.2×
20253.34-16.4%36.0%10510.3×n/m57.8×2.4×
TTM5.15-16.4%36.0%1050.0×0.0×0.0×0.0×
2026E5.15+12.2%0.4%10.0×0.0×0.0×0.0×
2027E5.15-13.1%0.3%10.0×n/m0.0×0.0×

EBITDA in reporting-currency $M. Historical multiples use year-end market cap (split-adjusted price history); TTM & forward years use today's.

AI Analysis

LLM Evaluations

Claude3/10SELLFV: $3.25

NAT is a high-risk, cyclically-exposed Suezmax tanker operator trading at a significant premium to NAV (1.35x) and well above analyst targets ($3.00-$3.50). While current spot rates are elevated and Q4 2025 showed improvement, the company faces a confluence of negatives: an aging fleet that's competitively disadvantaged vs. Frontline/DHT, a dividend payout ratio >148% that is destroying the balance sheet, $433M in debt with rising interest burden (interest coverage just 2.9x TTM), and committed newbuild capex at cycle-peak valuations with 2028 deliveries that may arrive into a softer market. Historical serial dilution via ATM programs has expanded shares from 147M to 212M. The insider buying by the Hansson family provides some comfort, but governance concerns (board member asset payments, poison pill) and the structural capital allocation issues make this a below-average risk/reward. At $5.24, the market is pricing in sustained peak-cycle earnings that are unlikely to persist.

Catalyst Potential catalysts include: OPEC+ production increases driving higher tanker demand, escalation of sanctions enforcement reducing shadow fleet competition, or a strategic sale/merger at NAV premium. On the downside, a tanker rate downturn, newbuild delivery delays, or a dividend cut could trigger a sharp repricing.
Risk A meaningful decline in Suezmax spot rates from current elevated levels (~$40-55K/day) toward mid-cycle ($25-30K/day) would collapse earnings and force a dividend cut, likely triggering a 30-40% share price decline given the retail yield-chasing investor base.
Trend
IMPROVING
Mgmt
4/10
Quarter
7/10
Exp. Move
+3.0%

Valuation & Metrics

Market Stats

Price$5.15
Market Cap$1.1B
Enterprise Value$1.5B
P/S Ratio3.7x
P/FCF--
EV/FCF--
FCF Margin (TTM)-39.9%
FCF Yield-10.7%
Dividend Yield (TTM)9.1%
Annual Dilution0.6%
CurrencyUSD

TTM Financial Snapshot

Revenue$292.4M
Net Income$12.3M
Free Cash Flow$-116.6M

Revenue Growth (YoY)+15.4%
EBITDA Margin36.0%
Net Margin4.2%
FCF Margin-39.9%
CapEx % of Revenue46.7%
SBC % of Revenue0.0%
ROIC5.7%
WC Change % Rev-4.6%
Interest Coverage2.9x

DCF Fair Value Estimate

$-0.01
-100.2% upside
Fair Enterprise Value$-27M
− Net Debt$378M
= Fair Equity$-3M
Revenue Growth-13.1% → 1.0%
FCF Margin-39.9% → 12.0%
Discount Rate16.0%
Terminal EV/FCF7.0x

Forward Outlook & Risk

Short Interest

Short % of Float9.3%
Short Shares18.7M
Days to Cover3.9
Change (vs Prior)+75.3%
Short % Float History
9.30%+2.90pp
5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%9.0%04-3007-1509-1511-1401-1504-30

Options

Call IV (ATM)48%
Put IV (ATM)53%
ATM Spread2.8%
Call $OI (near money)$2.2M
Put $OI (near money)$281K
ATM ExpiryJuly 17, 2026 (56D)
ATM Strike$5.5
Major Expirations3
Near-money chain · July 17, 2026
StrikeCall Bid/AskCall OIPut Bid/AskPut OI
$3.00$2.05/$2.7012--/$0.2529
$3.50$1.80/$1.951,641--/$0.05317
$4.00$1.15/$1.5028--/$0.10173
$4.50$0.80/$1.25607$0.05/$0.25130
$5.00$0.40/$0.752,869$0.15/$0.401,170
$5.50$0.30/$0.45410$0.30/$0.65504
$6.00$0.15/$0.303,847$0.70/$1.0576
$7.00--/$0.103,767$1.50/$2.0022
Snapshot: 2026-05-22

Forward Projections & Estimates

NTM Revenue Growth+12.2%
Forward FCF Margin9.3%
Forward EBITDA Margin37.6%
Forward P/FCF35.9x
Forward EV/FCF48.3x
Forward Int. Coverage3.4x
Model Risk Score8/10
Bankruptcy Odds10%
Est. Borrow Rate8.5%
Terminal EV/FCF7.0x
LT Growth1.0%
LT FCF Margin12.0%

Employees

Headcount15
Revenue / Employee$19,494,667
Gross Profit / Employee$3,857,933
2022: 21 → 2023: 17 → 2024: 15 → 2025: 21 (0% CAGR)

Cash Runway

4.7months
CRITICAL

Institutional Ownership

Headline & net flow

NET BUYING

In Q1 2026 so far (quarter still filing), institutions are net buyers — bought 9.0% of float, sold 3.2%. 1 filer moved >1% of shares (1 buying, 0 selling).

Net flow · Q1 2026still filing
+5.8% of float (net)
Bought 9.0% · Sold 3.2%
137 filers reported (last quarter: 223)

Ownership composition

Active
34.7%(+24.6% YoY)
220 filers
hedge / family / endowment
Retail funds
Fidelity, Schwab, 401(k)
Passive
17.0%(+10.2% YoY)
9 filers
Vanguard, iShares, SPDR
Market makers
0.6%(+0.4% YoY)
7 filers
Citadel, Susquehanna
Insiders
5.3%
Form 4 — latest per insider
0%25%50%75%100%2022-062023-032023-122024-092025-062026-03
ActiveRetail fundsPassiveMarket makersRetail direct

Top holders

Fund$ valueCost basisΔ QoQΔ YoYα lifeFund AUM
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LPPassive$71.4M$2.83+$2.7M+$4.5M-0.4%$480.92B
BlackRock, Inc.Passive$70.4M$3.12+$587K+$1.1M-0.2%$5.69T
AMERIPRISE FINANCIAL INC$48.4M$3.83+$10.0M+$47.8M-0.1%$430.96B
MORGAN STANLEY$36.2M$2.51+$738K−$1.7M-0.3%$1.65T
CastleKnight Management LP$30.8M$2.94+$27K+$30.8M+1.2%$2.13B
Nuveen, LLC$29.2M$5.05+$26.6M+$21.7M+0.0%$368.63B
MIRAE ASSET GLOBAL ETFS HOLDINGS Ltd.$26.8M$2.80−$5.7M+$1.5M+1.7%$73.71B
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC$26.8M$2.82+$5.2M+$10.6M-0.2%$760.93B
STATE STREET CORPPassive$25.0M$2.44+$274K+$950K-0.2%$2.89T
AMERICAN CENTURY COMPANIES INC$23.7M$3.04−$10.6M+$2.3M+0.7%$193.48B
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLCPassive$14.9M$2.46+$254K−$11K+2.3%$1.61T
TUDOR INVESTMENT CORP ET AL$9.3M$3.35+$1.9M+$9.3M-0.3%$17.85B
VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLCPassive$9.1M$5.86+$9.1M+$9.1M$1.91T
BRIDGEWAY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC$9.1M$2.82+$390K+$4.2M-2.3%$4.93B
Philip James Wealth Mangement, LLC$7.7M$2.97+$3K+$294K-0.0%$870M
MILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC$7.4M$2.38−$6.4M−$1.3M-0.5%$127.40B
NORTHERN TRUST CORPPassive$6.8M$2.45+$257K−$972K-0.2%$755.34B
Simcoe Capital LLC$6.1M$3.38+$97K+$6.1M+4.4%$109M
Empowered Funds, LLC$5.6M$2.78+$390K+$4.3M+0.2%$15.64B
JANE STREET GROUP, LLCMM$5.2M$2.70+$91K+$2.7M-0.1%$92.10B
Cost basis is a volume-weighted estimate from accumulation periods within our 13F history; holders who built their position before our window started will show a stale basis. % above the cost basis is the unrealized gain at the current price.

Trading behavior

Smart-money alpha (lifetime, %/qtr)BEARISH
Holders
+0.20%
avg per quarter
Holders (ex-self)
+0.16%
excl. this stock
Buyers (this Q)
+0.04%
121 buyers · $0.27B in
Sellers (this Q)
+1.56%
79 sellers · $-0.01B out
alpha coverage: 98% of $ has a lifetime-alpha record
Holder behavior on this stocksource: stock
On big dips (−10%+)
+20.2%
how holders react when this stock falls
On quiet Qs
-13.7%
−10% to +10% baseline
On rallies (+10%+)
-20.4%
how they react when this stock rises
Holders' portfolio flow this Q
+3.1%
inflows — adds are organic
Sellers' portfolio flow this Q
+7.7%
Sellers grew AUM elsewhere — opinionated cut of this stock.
▸ Compare to holder-profile behavior (across all their stocks)
Holder dip (any stock)
-3.4%
Holder mid (any stock)
-2.9%
Holder rally (any stock)
-5.8%

Top Holders Over Time

5-year share-count history (top 10 holders by peak, incl. exited) + price

09.9M19.7M29.6M39.5M$1.39$2.51$3.63$4.74$5.862021-062022-062023-062024-062025-062026-03
hover the chart for per-quarter detailprice (right axis)
AMERIPRISE FINANCIAL INC8.3MMORGAN STANLEY6.2MGOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC4.6MCastleKnight Management LP5.3MNuveen, LLC5.0MMILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC1.3MMIRAE ASSET GLOBAL ETFS HOLDINGS Ltd.4.6MAMERICAN CENTURY COMPANIES INC4.0MMARSHALL WACE, LLP343KAllspring Global Investments Holdings, LLC

Analyst Coverage

Analyst Coverage
Price Targets
Last Year (1 analysts)$3.00-4170.0%
Current Price$5.15
Analyst Ratings
5
11
3
Buy: 5Hold: 11Sell: 3Consensus: Hold
Consensus Estimates
QuarterRevenueEBITDANet IncEPSEPS Range# Analysts
2027 Q3110M28M17M$0.08$0.08 – $0.081
2027 Q4114M29M17M$0.08$0.08 – $0.081
2028 Q1119M31M17M$0.08$0.08 – $0.081
2028 Q2123M32M18M$0.08$0.08 – $0.081
2028 Q3127M33M21M$0.10$0.10 – $0.101
2028 Q4132M34M21M$0.10$0.10 – $0.101
2029 Q1137M35M20M$0.10$0.10 – $0.101
2029 Q2142M37M21M$0.10$0.10 – $0.101
2029 Q3147M38M22M$0.10$0.10 – $0.101
2029 Q4152M39M23M$0.11$0.11 – $0.111

Corporate

Order Flow (FINRA, ~3w lag)

33.1%retail+3.5pp
20.3%dark+0.4pp
week of 2026-04-13
10%20%30%40%50%24-1125-0225-0525-0825-1126-0226-04retail (non-ATS)dark (ATS)
Off-exchange volume from FINRA. Retail = non-ATS (wholesaler PFOF + broker internalization). Dark = ATS (dark-pool crossing networks, institutional). Lit-exchange = remainder.

Revenue Breakdown

Revenue Segments

By Product (2022-Q4)
Spot Charter$196.6M+151%
Time Charter$18.5M+49%

Filing Risk Analysis

Filing Risk Scores

Nordic American Tankers: ATM Distribution Addict with Hidden Insider Perks

Overall Risk
7/10
Fraud
4/10
Dilution
9/10
Insolvency
6/10
Earnings Overstated
4/10
Hidden Liabilities
5/10
Legal
3/10
Audit Warnings
2/10
Hidden Upside
4/10
Contextually Acceptable
6/10

Counter-Thesis

Counter-Thesis & Recent News

📰 Recent News

NAT reported its strongest quarter of 2025 in Q4, with a net income of $11.7M and a significant 30.8% dividend hike to $0.17/share (its 114th consecutive payout). As of late Feb 2026, management revealed that ~66% of Q1 2026 spot days were booked at a high rate of $55,000/day, significantly above its $9,000/day operating cost. Additionally, the Hansson family (CEO/Vice-Chair) increased their stake to over 5% in early March 2026, signaling strong insider conviction.

🐻 Bear Case

The short thesis centers on NAT's aging fleet (average age ~13 years) and a dividend payout ratio that exceeds 100% of earnings, suggesting the yield is funded by the balance sheet rather than organic cash flow. Bears argue the stock trades at a 1.35x premium to NAV, whereas peers like DHT trade at more attractive valuations. Analysts at Jefferies and Evercore maintain 'Hold' ratings with price targets ($3.00-$3.50) well below recent highs of $5.40+.

🚩 Red Flags

Sustainability of the high dividend is a primary concern, with a reported payout ratio of 148.6% as of Q1 2026 and estimates suggesting it could hit 200%. The company is also acquiring newbuilds at record-high valuations with deliveries not expected until 2028, potentially missing the current market peak while increasing debt ($433M as of early 2026).

⚔️ Competitive Threats

NAT faces pressure from peers like Frontline (FRO) and DHT Holdings, which possess younger, more fuel-efficient fleets that command better operational performance. While NAT is renewing its fleet, its reliance on 'second-hand tonnage' and late-delivery newbuilds puts it at a disadvantage compared to competitors who have already modernized for the current high-rate environment.

💬 Customer Sentiment

Sentiment remains robust among top-tier clients; approximately 50% of NAT's fleet is chartered by major oil companies. Management highlights high 'vetting' performance scores from these majors as a key differentiator. The 'shadow fleet' crackdown is also driving these premium customers toward compliant, high-quality operators like NAT, securing fixed-rate contracts exceeding $50,000/day.