MSBI
Midland States Bancorp, Inc.Midland States Bancorp, Inc. operates as a financial holding company for Midland States Bank that provides various banking products and services to individuals, businesses, municipalities, and other entities. It operates through Banking, Wealth Management, and Other segments. The company accepts various deposits, such as checking, savings, money market, and sweep accounts, as well as certificates of deposits. It also offers term loans to purchase capital equipment; lines of credit for working ca
2-Year Price History
Quarterly Financials & Projections
| Period | Rev | EBITDA | OpIn | NI | OCF | FCF | CapEx | Cash | Debt | Shares | ROIC | IntCov | EV/EBITDA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Est | 2027-Q4 | 105.0 | 25.7 | -- | 17.3 | -- | 17.3 | -1.3 | 1,564 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q3 | 104.0 | 25.0 | -- | 16.6 | -- | 16.6 | -1.3 | 1,547 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q2 | 102.0 | 23.5 | -- | 15.3 | -- | 14.8 | -1.2 | 1,530 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q1 | 100.0 | 22.5 | -- | 14.5 | -- | 13.0 | -1.2 | 1,515 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q4 | 101.0 | 22.2 | -- | 14.1 | -- | 15.2 | -1.3 | 1,502 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q3 | 100.0 | 21.5 | -- | 13.5 | -- | 14.0 | -1.3 | 1,487 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q2 | 98.0 | 19.6 | -- | 11.8 | -- | 9.8 | -1.4 | 1,473 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q1 | 96.0 | 17.3 | -- | 10.1 | -- | 11.5 | -1.4 | 1,463 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Act | 2026-Q1 | 108.1 | 24.1 | 24.1 | 18.5 | 17.0 | 16.4 | -0.6 | 1,452 | 418.5 | 21.3 | 15.3% | 0.8x | -- |
| Act | 2025-Q4 | 107.3 | -3.3 | -3.3 | -2.9 | -7.1 | -8.9 | -1.9 | 1,653 | 432.1 | 21.9 | -2.3% | -0.1x | -- |
| Act | 2025-Q3 | 115.5 | 14.2 | 11.3 | 7.6 | 80.0 | 78.6 | -1.4 | 1,313 | 546.8 | 21.9 | 4.7% | 0.4x | -- |
| Act | 2025-Q2 | 118.1 | 17.9 | 14.9 | 12.0 | 28.1 | 29.9 | -1.9 | 180.3 | 431.4 | 21.8 | 9.3% | 0.5x | -- |
| Act | 2025-Q1 | 115.0 | -134.7 | -137.8 | -141.0 | 24.7 | 22.9 | -1.9 | 1,208 | 616.0 | 22.1 | -78.9% | -3.3x | -- |
| Act | 2024-Q4 | 182.5 | 0.9 | -2.3 | -1.1 | 98.3 | 95.6 | -2.7 | 1,066 | 423.3 | 21.7 | -0.9% | 0.0x | -- |
| Act | 2024-Q3 | 137.6 | 28.2 | 25.0 | 20.4 | 33.2 | 31.1 | -2.1 | 1,333 | 521.6 | 21.7 | 9.5% | 0.6x | -- |
| Act | 2024-Q2 | 134.6 | 35.2 | 31.8 | 25.7 | 18.1 | 16.5 | -1.6 | 1,219 | 698.9 | 21.7 | 10.2% | 0.7x | 0.2x |
| Act | 2024-Q1 | 138.4 | 32.5 | 29.1 | 22.7 | 26.9 | 26.4 | -0.5 | 1,207 | 563.1 | 21.8 | 10.3% | 0.7x | -- |
| Act | 2023-Q4 | 117.5 | 23.9 | 20.5 | 14.1 | 87.4 | 85.7 | -1.7 | 1,050 | 604.4 | 21.8 | 6.0% | 0.5x | -- |
| Act | 2023-Q3 | 114.3 | 26.3 | 22.9 | 11.4 | 6.5 | 4.1 | -2.4 | 966.2 | 649.5 | 22.0 | 6.3% | 0.6x | 0.9x |
| Act | 2023-Q2 | 117.8 | 31.8 | 28.8 | 21.6 | 44.7 | 42.9 | -1.9 | 1,042 | 690.2 | 22.2 | 8.5% | 0.8x | 0.9x |
| Act | 2023-Q1 | 110.5 | 31.7 | 28.7 | 21.8 | 16.0 | 13.2 | -2.8 | 948.4 | 613.0 | 22.5 | 9.3% | 0.9x | 1.8x |
| Act | 2022-Q4 | 119.5 | 47.0 | 43.9 | 32.9 | 30.7 | 29.3 | -1.4 | 921.6 | 644.4 | 22.5 | 13.7% | 1.8x | 1.8x |
| Act | 2022-Q3 | 94.3 | 33.1 | 29.4 | 23.5 | 51.6 | 50.4 | -1.2 | 991.4 | 557.9 | 22.4 | 11.0% | 2.1x | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q2 | 83.6 | 32.9 | 29.2 | 21.9 | 115.4 | 114.9 | -0.5 | 1,025 | 492.0 | 22.4 | 12.7% | 4.2x | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q1 | 77.8 | 31.3 | 27.4 | 20.8 | 39.1 | 38.7 | -0.4 | 1,175 | 519.8 | 22.4 | 11.4% | 5.3x | -- |
Multiples vs the company's own history — cheap or rich relative to itself? Historical fiscal years, then TTM, then forward projections (E). Forward rows hold today's price against projected earnings, so the multiple compresses if the company grows into it.
| Year | Price | Rev Gr | EBITDA % | EBITDA | EV/EBITDA | EV/FCF | P/E | P/S |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22.03 | — | 38.5% | 144 | 1.8× | 1.1× | 5.4× | 1.4× |
| 2023 | 24.04 | +22.6% | 24.7% | 114 | — | — | 6.5× | 1.0× |
| 2024 | 22.41 | +28.9% | 16.3% | 97 | — | — | 6.9× | 0.8× |
| 2025 | 20.88 | -23.1% | -23.2% | -106 | — | — | n/m | 0.8× |
| TTM | 27.80 | -21.2% | 11.8% | 53 | — | — | 0.0× | 0.0× |
| 2026E | 27.80 | -12.0% | 0.2% | 1 | — | — | 0.0× | 0.0× |
| 2027E | 27.80 | +4.0% | 0.2% | 1 | — | — | 0.0× | 0.0× |
EBITDA in reporting-currency $M. Historical multiples use year-end market cap (split-adjusted price history); TTM & forward years use today's.
AI Analysis
LLM Evaluations
MSBI is a deep value turnaround play trading at ~0.8x tangible book value ($26/share) after a brutal FY2025 marked by a goodwill impairment and equipment finance portfolio exit. The core community bank is healthy with 6.5% annualized loan growth, record wealth management revenue, and an activist PE investor (Patriot Financial Partners) now on the board pushing for operational improvement. The $25M buyback at these levels is highly accretive. However, the 53.8% CRE concentration, elevated charge-offs, 126.7% dividend payout ratio (unsustainable on GAAP basis), and unfavorable near-term liability repricing create real risks. This is a show-me story where normalized earnings power of ~$2.00-2.20/share supports a price in the mid-$20s, but execution risk and credit quality uncertainty cap the upside multiple.
Valuation & Metrics
Market Stats
TTM Financial Snapshot
DCF Fair Value Estimate
Forward Outlook & Risk
Short Interest
Options
| Strike | Call Bid/Ask | Call OI | Put Bid/Ask | Put OI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $10.00 | $15.50/$20.00 | 0 | --/$0.95 | 0 |
| $12.50 | $13.00/$17.50 | 0 | --/$2.75 | 0 |
| $15.00 | $10.50/$15.00 | 0 | --/$0.95 | 0 |
| $17.50 | $8.70/$12.70 | 0 | --/$1.15 | 2 |
| $20.00 | $6.70/$10.50 | 0 | --/$2.75 | 1 |
| $22.50 | $3.10/$7.90 | 0 | --/$2.75 | 0 |
| $25.00 | $3.00/$3.70 | 46 | $0.15/$1.75 | 0 |
| $30.00 | --/$1.75 | 0 | $1.00/$4.00 | 3 |
Forward Projections & Estimates
Employees
Institutional Ownership
Headline & net flow
In Q1 2026 so far (quarter still filing), institutions are roughly balanced — bought 6.0% of float, sold 5.1%.
Ownership composition
Top holders
| Fund | $ value | Cost basis | Δ QoQ | Δ YoY | α life | Fund AUM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BlackRock, Inc.Passive | $63.7M | $20.23 | −$1.9M | −$2.4M | -0.2% | $5.69T |
| VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLCPassive | $20.1M | $22.31 | +$20.1M | +$20.1M | — | $4.04T |
| DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LPPassive | $19.9M | $20.62 | −$3.6M | −$8.4M | -0.4% | $480.92B |
| STATE STREET CORPPassive | $17.1M | $21.24 | +$1.9M | +$3.0M | -0.2% | $2.89T |
| Busey Trust CO | $16.9M | $23.13 | +$0 | +$0 | +0.0% | $3.68B |
| AMERICAN CENTURY COMPANIES INC | $13.1M | $19.92 | −$278K | +$1.6M | +0.7% | $193.48B |
| HOTCHKIS & WILEY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC | $12.1M | $20.09 | +$3.8M | +$5.3M | -0.1% | $31.89B |
| GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLCPassive | $11.9M | $18.86 | +$346K | −$934K | +2.3% | $1.61T |
| Patriot Financial Partners GP II, L.P. | $9.8M | $22.31 | +$9.8M | +$9.8M | +6.1% | $388M |
| AQR CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC | $8.8M | $17.90 | −$257K | +$99K | -0.2% | $218.19B |
| Rhino Investment Partners, Inc | $7.1M | $21.14 | +$1.3M | +$7.1M | -0.4% | $359M |
| LSV ASSET MANAGEMENT | $6.5M | $23.13 | −$129K | −$2.2M | +0.0% | $46.40B |
| GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC | $5.8M | $21.47 | +$1.9M | +$2.8M | -0.2% | $760.93B |
| ACADIAN ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | $5.7M | $20.27 | +$2.2M | +$2.8M | -0.5% | $70.48B |
| JACOBS LEVY EQUITY MANAGEMENT, INC | $5.4M | $20.19 | +$93K | +$3.0M | +0.4% | $23.79B |
| VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLCPassive | $5.1M | $22.31 | +$5.1M | +$5.1M | — | $1.91T |
| ARROWSTREET CAPITAL, LIMITED PARTNERSHIP | $4.4M | $20.28 | +$371K | +$2.2M | +0.1% | $184.72B |
| TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP | $3.9M | $19.14 | +$600K | +$2.6M | -0.9% | $117.03B |
| CHARLES SCHWAB INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC | $3.8M | $20.83 | −$130K | +$13K | +0.7% | $645.81B |
| NORTHERN TRUST CORPPassive | $3.4M | $21.28 | +$113K | −$822K | -0.2% | $755.34B |
Trading behavior
▸ Compare to holder-profile behavior (across all their stocks)
Biggest decreases this quarter
New buyers this quarter
Top-5 holders · 43.9%
Top Holders Over Time
5-year share-count history (top 10 holders by peak, incl. exited) + price
Analyst Coverage
| Quarter | Revenue | EBITDA | Net Inc | EPS | EPS Range | # Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q3 | 79M | 12M | 14M | $0.64 | $0.59 – $0.69 | 4 |
| 2025 Q4 | 74M | 12M | -0M | $-0.01 | $-0.01 – $-0.01 | 3 |
| 2026 Q1 | 76M | 12M | 13M | $0.61 | $0.58 – $0.63 | 4 |
| 2026 Q2 | 81M | 13M | 17M | $0.78 | $0.72 – $0.82 | 4 |
| 2026 Q3 | 81M | 13M | 17M | $0.80 | $0.79 – $0.81 | 3 |
| 2026 Q4 | 82M | 13M | 17M | $0.80 | $0.79 – $0.81 | 1 |
| 2027 Q1 | 80M | 13M | 16M | $0.74 | $0.74 – $0.75 | 1 |
| 2027 Q2 | 81M | 13M | 16M | $0.77 | $0.76 – $0.77 | 1 |
| 2027 Q3 | 83M | 13M | 17M | $0.81 | $0.80 – $0.82 | 1 |
| 2027 Q4 | 83M | 13M | 17M | $0.82 | $0.81 – $0.83 | 1 |
Corporate
Executive Compensation (2023-2025)
Insider Trading (last 12mo)
| Date | Side | Insider | Title | Shares | Price | Dollars | Owned $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-05 | BUY | Franklin Travis | director | 9,400 | $26.49 | $249K | $249K |
| 2026-01-28 | SELL | Mooney Kyle Owen | officer: SVP - Chief Operating Officer | 2,808 | $22.67 | $64K | $322K |
| 2025-12-03 | BUY | Bingham Richard Dean | director | 5,000 | $17.56 | $88K | $486K |
| 2025-12-03 | BUY | Casey Daniel Edward | officer: CROF | 5,000 | $17.89 | $89K | $505K |
| 2025-12-03 | BUY | Jameson Jeremy Andrew | officer: EVP - Chief Credit Officer | 5,598 | $17.69 | $99K | $1.12M |
| 2025-12-03 | BUY | Smith Jeffrey C. | director | 500 | $17.69 | $9K | $603K |
Order Flow (FINRA, ~3w lag)
Revenue Breakdown
Revenue Segments
| Asset Management | $13.6M | +102% |
| Interchange Revenues | $6.6M | +87% |
| Nonsufficient Fund Fees | $4.2M | +96% |
| Other Deposit Account | $2.7M | +96% |
| Investment Advisory, Management and Administrative Service | $1.1M | +106% |
| Other Wealth Management Revenue | $0.9M | +138% |
| Service, Other | $0.6M | +89% |
| Credit Card, Merchant Discount | $0.6M | +79% |
Filing Risk Analysis
Filing Risk Scores
Midland States Bancorp, Inc.: Aggressive Provisioning Masks Credit Deterioration
Counter-Thesis
Counter-Thesis & Recent News
In February 2026, private equity firm Patriot Financial Partners took a significant position and a board seat, signaling a 'smart money' turnaround bet. This followed an insider purchase by EVP Jeremy Jameson ($99k) in December 2025 and the authorization of a $25 million stock buyback program. Additionally, the bank completed the sale of its equipment finance portfolio in Q4 2025 to streamline operations and focus on core banking (Sources: Seeking Alpha, MarketBeat, Quiver Quantitative).
The bear thesis focuses on a massive 126.7% dividend payout ratio and a reported FY 2025 net loss of $124.3 million, leading to 'dividend trap' narratives. Short interest jumped 22% in February 2026 as bears bet on the bank's high 53.8% commercial real estate (CRE) exposure and a high net charge-off rate of 3.69% in the final quarter of 2025 (Sources: Simply Wall St, MarketBeat).
Asset quality is the primary concern, with 1 in 20 gross loans currently classified as 'special mention' or substandard. While the bank reported an adjusted EPS beat of $0.53, the GAAP loss was exacerbated by a $21.4 million loss on the disposal of the equipment finance unit and a lingering $154 million goodwill impairment from earlier in 2025 (Sources: Seeking Alpha, Sahm Capital).
MSBI faces a challenging repricing gap: 69% of its liabilities are set to reprice in early 2026 compared to only 31% of its assets, which could compress Net Interest Margins (NIM) if interest rates remain elevated. Furthermore, total deposits fell 6% recently as competition for liquidity among regional peers intensifies (Sources: Public.com, Seeking Alpha).
Despite corporate-level losses, customer-facing segments show resilience. The Wealth Management division reached record revenue of $8.3 million in Q4 2025 with an 8% year-over-year increase in Assets Under Management (AUM). Additionally, the core Community Bank segment reported 6.5% annualized loan growth, suggesting strong local brand loyalty and stable demand in its primary markets (Sources: Quiver Quantitative, Seeking Alpha).