Stocks/KRO

KRO

Kronos Worldwide, Inc.
Basic Materials·Chemicals - Specialty
$7.19
$827M market cap
Claude Rating
3/10SELL
Revenue
$1.9B
Free Cash Flow
$25.2M
Rev Growth
+4.1%
FCF Margin
1.3%
P/FCF
32.8x
EV/FCF
56.4x
Fwd EV/EBITDA
11.5x
Fair Value
$4.00
Upside
-44.4%

Kronos Worldwide, Inc. produces and markets titanium dioxide pigments (TiO2) in Europe, North America, the Asia Pacific, and internationally. The company produces TiO2 in two crystalline forms, rutile and anatase to impart whiteness, brightness, opacity, and durability for various products, including paints, coatings, plastics, paper, fibers, and ceramics, as well as for various specialty products, such as inks, foods, and cosmetics. It also produces ilmenite, a raw material used directly as a f

2-Year Price History

$6.74-46.0%
$6.0$8.0$10$12volJun 24Oct 24Jan 25May 25Sep 25Jan 26May 26

Quarterly Financials & Projections

Quarterly Waterfall ($ M)
PeriodRevEBITDAOpInNIOCFFCFCapExCashDebtSharesROICIntCovEV/EBITDA
Est2027-Q3520.067.6--20.8--39.0-10.4100.4----------
Est2027-Q2510.058.7--15.3--30.6-10.261.4----------
Est2027-Q1480.043.2--2.4---38.4-9.630.8----------
Est2026-Q4460.032.2---6.9--27.6-11.569.2----------
Est2026-Q3500.047.5--5.0--27.5-10.041.6----------
Est2026-Q2490.039.2---2.5--19.6-7.414.1----------
Est2026-Q1460.025.3---13.8---55.2-6.9-5.5----------
Act2026-Q1509.834.618.0-4.8-51.3-61.5-10.228.2621.5115.08.7%2.4x--
Est2025-Q4430.012.9---23.7--21.5-10.849.7----------
Act2025-Q4418.3-56.8-65.3-82.893.683.4-10.237.0577.3115.0-36.1%-3.9x61.5x
Act2025-Q3456.90.6-19.2-37.0-7.9-17.4-9.527.7647.1115.0-9.7%0.0x11.4x
Act2025-Q2494.423.27.4-9.220.720.7-0.018.9610.6115.02.4%1.8x5.8x
Act2025-Q1489.852.238.418.1-102.4-102.4-0.020.5578.1115.016.0%4.5x5.8x
Act2024-Q4423.142.728.6-13.249.337.0-12.3106.7528.0115.010.8%3.5x7.0x
Act2024-Q3484.7128.438.971.828.319.2-9.194.8576.1115.013.1%10.9x8.4x
Act2024-Q2500.557.235.919.537.333.9-3.4133.8445.5115.019.2%5.8x19.6x
Act2024-Q1478.832.819.58.1-43.3-48.0-4.7120.7448.4115.011.1%3.6x42.8x
Act2023-Q4400.18.0-5.7-5.364.459.1-5.3194.7463.4115.0-2.4%1.9x--
Act2023-Q3396.9-11.6-25.3-20.417.79.5-8.2155.3443.9115.0-10.5%-2.7x--
Act2023-Q2443.24.8-6.7-8.233.215.7-17.5169.4454.3115.1-2.5%1.1x39.1x
Act2023-Q1426.3-3.9-18.3-15.2-109.8-126.2-16.4177.8455.3115.3-6.5%-0.9x12.8x
Act2022-Q4342.4-7.1-19.7-19.922.63.8-18.8327.8446.4115.4-7.7%-1.8x6.0x
Act2022-Q3459.640.430.821.09.8-4.1-13.9338.5412.2115.517.8%9.6x--
Act2022-Q2565.379.165.245.967.951.6-16.3371.2436.2115.528.1%18.4x--
Act2022-Q1562.994.683.357.5-18.6-32.8-14.2350.0466.3115.534.1%21.0x--
Historical Valuation

Multiples vs the company's own history — cheap or rich relative to itself? Historical fiscal years, then TTM, then forward projections (E). Forward rows hold today's price against projected earnings, so the multiple compresses if the company grows into it.

YearPriceRev GrEBITDA %EBITDAEV/EBITDAEV/FCFP/EP/S
20227.9210.7%2076.0×66.9×10.7×0.6×
20239.11-13.7%-0.2%-3n/mn/mn/m0.5×
20249.33+13.2%13.8%2617.0×43.6×16.4×0.8×
20254.38-1.5%1.0%1961.5×n/mn/m0.3×
TTM7.19-1.0%0.1%20.0×0.0×0.0×0.0×
2026E7.19+1.6%0.1%10.0×0.0×0.0×0.0×

EBITDA in reporting-currency $M. Historical multiples use year-end market cap (split-adjusted price history); TTM & forward years use today's.

AI Analysis

LLM Evaluations

Claude3/10SELLFV: $4.00

Kronos is a deeply cyclical commodity chemical company at trough earnings, but the bear case is far from exhausted. The company refinanced into 9.5% debt (from 3.75%), nearly tripling its interest burden just as margins collapsed. Plant utilization at ~80% means massive unabsorbed fixed costs. European operations face structural unprofitability with German tax asset write-downs signaling management pessimism. While Venator's exit is a genuine positive for industry supply, Chinese capacity expansion and export aggression offset much of this benefit. The Contran/Valhi control structure means minority shareholders have no governance leverage, and the bloated receivables/inventory suggest further working capital headwinds. Even in a recovery scenario, the higher cost of capital means mid-cycle earnings power is significantly lower than the prior cycle. With only 5.4 months cash runway, negative TTM FCF, and 8% short interest with 6+ days to cover, this is a name where the risk/reward skews negatively at current prices. Insider buying is modestly supportive but insufficient to offset structural concerns.

Catalyst Venator capacity closures tightening Western TiO2 supply could drive 5-10% price increases in H2 2026, boosting margins and potentially triggering a short squeeze given elevated short interest and days-to-cover. Destocking cycle ending in coatings/construction markets would support volume recovery.
Risk Liquidity crisis: with 5.4 months cash runway, negative FCF, 9.5% debt costs, and ~1.1x interest coverage, any further demand deterioration or working capital build could force an emergency capital raise or covenant breach, severely diluting or wiping out equity holders.
Trend
DETERIORATING
Mgmt
3/10
Quarter
2/10
Exp. Move
-8.0%

Valuation & Metrics

Market Stats

Price$7.19
Market Cap$827M
Enterprise Value$1.4B
P/S Ratio0.4x
P/FCF32.8x
EV/FCF56.4x
FCF Margin (TTM)1.3%
FCF Yield3.0%
Dividend Yield (TTM)3.5%
Annual Dilution0.0%
CurrencyUSD

TTM Financial Snapshot

Revenue$1.9B
Net Income$-133.8M
Free Cash Flow$25.2M

Revenue Growth (YoY)+4.1%
EBITDA Margin0.1%
Net Margin-7.1%
FCF Margin1.3%
CapEx % of Revenue1.6%
SBC % of Revenue0.0%
ROIC-8.7%
WC Change % Rev6.8%
Interest Coverage0.0x

DCF Fair Value Estimate

$0.36
-95.0% upside
Fair Enterprise Value$414M
− Net Debt$593M
= Fair Equity$41M
Revenue Growth4.8% → 2.0%
FCF Margin1.3% → 6.0%
Discount Rate16.0%
Terminal EV/FCF8.0x

Forward Outlook & Risk

Short Interest

Short % of Float8.4%
Short Shares1.8M
Days to Cover5.1
Change (vs Prior)+4.9%
Short % Float History
8.40%+3.60pp
4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%9.0%04-3007-1509-1511-1401-1504-30

Options

Call IV (ATM)--
Put IV (ATM)--
ATM Spread--
Call $OI (near money)$109K
Put $OI (near money)$17K
ATM ExpiryJuly 17, 2026 (56D)
ATM Strike$7.5
Major Expirations3
Near-money chain · July 17, 2026
StrikeCall Bid/AskCall OIPut Bid/AskPut OI
$2.50$3.70/$4.900--/$0.750
$5.00$1.55/$2.300--/$0.750
$7.50--/$0.754--/$1.401
$10.00--/$0.750$2.70/$3.900
$12.50--/$0.750$5.00/$6.500
Snapshot: 2026-05-22

Forward Projections & Estimates

NTM Revenue Growth+0.0%
Forward FCF Margin0.7%
Forward EBITDA Margin6.6%
Forward P/FCF61.7x
Forward EV/FCF106.0x
Forward Int. Coverage2.3x
Model Risk Score8/10
Bankruptcy Odds12%
Est. Borrow Rate10.5%
Terminal EV/FCF8.0x
LT Growth2.0%
LT FCF Margin6.0%

Employees

Headcount2,524
Revenue / Employee$744,612
Gross Profit / Employee$75,079
2022: 2,266 → 2023: 2,196 → 2024: 2,524 → 2025: 0

Institutional Ownership

Headline & net flow

NET BUYING

In Q1 2026 so far (quarter still filing), institutions are net buyers — bought 8.7% of float, sold 2.2%.

Net flow · Q1 2026still filing
+6.4% of float (net)
Bought 8.7% · Sold 2.2%
122 filers reported (last quarter: 118)

Ownership composition

Active
8.3%(-1.1% YoY)
103 filers
hedge / family / endowment
Retail funds
Fidelity, Schwab, 401(k)
Passive
6.2%(-2.0% YoY)
10 filers
Vanguard, iShares, SPDR
Market makers
0.3%(+0.2% YoY)
6 filers
Citadel, Susquehanna
Insiders
0.2%
Form 4 — latest per insider
0%25%50%75%100%2022-062023-032023-122024-092025-062026-03
ActiveRetail fundsPassiveMarket makersRetail direct

Top holders

Fund$ valueCost basisΔ QoQΔ YoYα lifeFund AUM
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LPPassive$20.5M$9.00−$286K−$824K-0.4%$480.92B
Boston Partners$19.6M$8.19+$164K+$9.3M+0.5%$95.40B
BlackRock, Inc.Passive$10.8M$11.69−$185K−$686K-0.2%$5.69T
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLCPassive$6.4M$6.57+$6.4M+$6.4M$4.04T
Bank of New York Mellon Corp$5.3M$6.72+$231K+$1.3M-0.2%$543.21B
Russell Investments Group, Ltd.$4.8M$9.49+$1.2M+$1.9M+1.5%$93.03B
RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC$3.8M$8.13−$585K−$1.2M+1.2%$63.91B
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLCPassive$3.7M$8.23+$134K+$302K+2.3%$1.61T
STATE STREET CORPPassive$3.3M$9.07+$9K−$405K-0.2%$2.89T
BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/$2.7M$7.47+$159K+$368K-0.1%$1.36T
MORGAN STANLEY$2.7M$11.56+$1.1M+$930K-0.3%$1.65T
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC$2.2M$8.02+$647K+$796K-0.2%$760.93B
AQR CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC$2.0M$7.24+$422K+$1.2M-0.2%$218.19B
LUMINUS MANAGEMENT LLC$1.8M$7.21−$1.1M−$1.8M-4.5%$166M
JACOBS LEVY EQUITY MANAGEMENT, INC$1.5M$11.30−$13K−$554K+0.4%$23.79B
BNP PARIBAS FINANCIAL MARKETS$1.4M$7.54+$325K+$1.0M-0.2%$149.31B
JANE STREET GROUP, LLCMM$1.3M$7.59+$243K+$1.2M-0.1%$92.10B
VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLCPassive$1.3M$6.57+$1.3M+$1.3M$1.91T
Monaco Asset Management SAM$1.2M$6.09+$935K+$1.2M+1.9%$315M
NORTHERN TRUST CORPPassive$1.2M$7.72+$95K−$152K-0.2%$755.34B
Cost basis is a volume-weighted estimate from accumulation periods within our 13F history; holders who built their position before our window started will show a stale basis. % above the cost basis is the unrealized gain at the current price.

Trading behavior

Smart-money alpha (lifetime, %/qtr)NEUTRAL
Holders
+0.18%
avg per quarter
Holders (ex-self)
+0.18%
excl. this stock
Buyers (this Q)
+0.34%
57 buyers · $0.03B in
Sellers (this Q)
+0.06%
44 sellers · $-0.00B out
alpha coverage: 93% of $ has a lifetime-alpha record
Holder behavior on this stocksource: stock
On big dips (−10%+)
+3.9%
how holders react when this stock falls
On quiet Qs
-8.0%
−10% to +10% baseline
On rallies (+10%+)
-25.4%
how they react when this stock rises
Holders' portfolio flow this Q
+1.9%
inflows — adds are organic
Sellers' portfolio flow this Q
+22.8%
Sellers grew AUM elsewhere — opinionated cut of this stock.
▸ Compare to holder-profile behavior (across all their stocks)
Holder dip (any stock)
-7.9%
Holder mid (any stock)
-5.0%
Holder rally (any stock)
-4.3%

Top Holders Over Time

5-year share-count history (top 10 holders by peak, incl. exited) + price

01.7M3.5M5.2M7.0M$4.38$7.03$9.68$12$152021-062022-062023-062024-062025-062026-03
hover the chart for per-quarter detailprice (right axis)
KEMPEN CAPITAL MANAGEMENT N.V.RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC579KBoston Partners3.0MBank of New York Mellon Corp805KAdvisors Asset Management, Inc.48KMirae Asset Global Investments Co., Ltd.VICTORY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT INCMORGAN STANLEY406KMILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC73KRussell Investments Group, Ltd.730K

Analyst Coverage

Analyst Coverage
Price Targets
Last Year (2 analysts)$5.50-2350.0%
Current Price$7.19
Analyst Ratings
1
4
2
Buy: 1Hold: 4Sell: 2Consensus: Hold
Consensus Estimates
QuarterRevenueEBITDANet IncEPSEPS Range# Analysts
2024 Q3570M42M29M$0.25$0.25 – $0.252
2024 Q4464M35M13M$0.11$0.11 – $0.112
2025 Q1467M35M20M$0.17$0.17 – $0.172
2025 Q2505M38M16M$0.14$0.13 – $0.142
2025 Q3473M35M-7M$-0.06$-0.06 – $-0.061
2025 Q4373M28M-28M$-0.24$-0.25 – $-0.241
2026 Q1524M39M-38M$-0.33$-0.33 – $-0.331
2026 Q2520M39M-5M$-0.04$-0.04 – $-0.041
2026 Q3513M38M8M$0.07$0.07 – $0.071
2026 Q4467M35M-3M$-0.03$-0.03 – $-0.031

Corporate

Executive Compensation (2023-2025)

Direct Pay$40.1M
Incentive & Other$0.0M
Total Compensation$40.1M
% of Revenue0.7%

Insider Trading (last 12mo)

Open-market only (Form 4 P-Purchase + S-Sale). Excludes grants, option exercises, tax withholding, gifts.
Officers & directors
Buys ($, 12mo)
$278K
7 txns · 7 insiders · 50,101 sh
Sells ($, 12mo)
$0
0 txns · 0 insiders · 0 sh
Recent transactions
DateSideInsiderTitleSharesPriceDollarsOwned $
2026-05-18BUYKramer Kevin Bdirector14,601$6.75$99K$300K
2025-08-15BUYMcCoy Kristin Bofficer: Executive VP, Global Tax2,000$6.05$12K$12K
2025-08-13BUYNACE ANDREW Bofficer: Executive Vice President3,000$5.83$18K$113K
2025-08-11BUYHanley Bryan A.officer: Senior VP and Treasurer2,500$4.90$12K$29K
2025-08-11BUYReichert Bart Wofficer: Vice President, Internal Audit20,000$4.96$99K$99K
2025-08-11BUYSamford Amy A.officer: Executive VP, Finance3,000$4.83$14K$24K
2025-08-11BUYSimmons Michael Shawndirector, officer: Vice Chairman of the Board5,000$4.87$24K$24K

Order Flow (FINRA, ~3w lag)

24.4%retail-2.0pp
13.0%dark-1.2pp
week of 2026-04-13
10%15%20%25%30%35%24-1125-0225-0525-0825-1126-0226-04retail (non-ATS)dark (ATS)
Off-exchange volume from FINRA. Retail = non-ATS (wholesaler PFOF + broker internalization). Dark = ATS (dark-pool crossing networks, institutional). Lit-exchange = remainder.

Filing Risk Analysis

Filing Risk Scores

Kronos Worldwide, Inc.: Negative Cash Flows and Ballooning Receivables Mask Sustained Insider Wealth Extraction

Overall Risk
8/10
Fraud
4/10
Dilution
2/10
Insolvency
7/10
Earnings Overstated
6/10
Hidden Liabilities
5/10
Legal
4/10
Audit Warnings
3/10
Hidden Upside
2/10
Contextually Acceptable
3/10

Counter-Thesis

Counter-Thesis & Recent News

📰 Recent News

In late 2025 and early 2026, Kronos reported significant quarterly losses ($37M in Q3 2025) and a dividend cut from $0.19 to $0.05. However, the company completed the 100% acquisition of the Louisiana Pigment Company (LPC) in July 2024, which provides full operational control over a major low-cost production site. Notably, global supply-side tightening began in late 2025 as competitor Venator filed for bankruptcy and closed facilities in Germany and Italy, potentially reducing global TiO2 capacity by over 130,000 tons annually and easing the glut that fueled the bear case (Sources: Seeking Alpha Jan 2026, Echemi Jan 2026).

🐻 Bear Case

The bear case centers on 'stressed cyclical' status: KRO is grappling with margin compression, high leverage (total debt rose to $626M by Q3 2025), and poor plant utilization (dropping from 93% to ~80% in late 2025). Bears argue that structural unprofitability in European operations—evidenced by valuation allowances in Belgium—and the collapse of 2026 EPS estimates from $1.13 to $0.07 make the stock a 'value trap' (Sources: DeepValue Feb 2026, GuruFocus March 2026).

🚩 Red Flags

Severe unabsorbed fixed production costs ($27M in Q3 2025 alone) due to low operating rates; a 1.09x interest coverage ratio indicating thin margins for error; and a 7.8% drop in Chinese TiO2 prices in 2025 that forced global price realization downward. The persistence of the $0.05 dividend despite negative earnings is viewed by some as an unsustainable drain on liquidity (Sources: Stock Titan, Seeking Alpha).

⚔️ Competitive Threats

Intense competition from Chinese suppliers who benefit from less stringent environmental regulations and a 3.6% capacity expansion in 2025. While Western markets are sluggish, Chinese exports are shifting toward international markets to offset domestic weakness. Furthermore, the industry is transitioning toward the chloride process; while KRO has these assets, Chemours' proprietary low-temperature chlorination tech provides a significant energy-cost advantage over standard processes (Sources: Mordor Intelligence, Echemi).

💬 Customer Sentiment

Sentiment is currently bifurcated: while European and export markets remain depressed due to 'general hesitancy' to build inventory, North American sales volumes actually increased in 2025, suggesting resilient underlying demand in US construction and automotive sectors. Analysts expect a 'slight price rise' after the Spring Festival in 2026 as customer destocking cycles finally bottom out, potentially providing a catalyst for a short squeeze if volume recovery surprises to the upside (Sources: Barchart, Metal.com Jan 2026).