Stocks/KEN

KEN

Kenon Holdings Ltd.
Utilities·Independent Power Producers
--
$0M market cap
Claude Rating
4/10UNDERWEIGHT
Revenue
$871.9M
Free Cash Flow
$95.4M
Rev Growth
+43.1%
FCF Margin
10.9%
P/FCF
--
EV/FCF
2.0x
Fwd EV/EBITDA
0.6x
Fair Value
$52.00
Upside
--

Kenon Holdings Ltd., through its subsidiaries, operates as an owner, developer, and operator of power generation facilities in Israel, the United States, and internationally. It operates in four segments: OPC Israel, CPV Group, ZIM, and Quantum. The company engages in the generation and supply of electricity and energy; development, construction, and management of renewable energy and conventional natural gas-fired power plants; manufacture of automobiles; and provision of container liner shippi

2-Year Price History

$85.72+291.1%
$30$40$50$60$70$80$90volMay 24Sep 24Jan 25May 25Sep 25Jan 26May 26

Quarterly Financials & Projections

Quarterly Waterfall ($ M)
PeriodRevEBITDAOpInNIOCFFCFCapExCashDebtSharesROICIntCovEV/EBITDA
Est2027-Q4250.082.5--16.3--37.5-31.31,842----------
Est2027-Q3285.0105.5--21.4--48.5-34.21,805----------
Est2027-Q2225.065.3--7.9--20.3-28.11,756----------
Est2027-Q1205.063.6--10.3--26.7-27.71,736----------
Est2026-Q4240.076.8--14.4--33.6-31.21,709----------
Est2026-Q3275.0104.5--22.0--49.5-33.01,676----------
Est2026-Q2215.060.2--6.5--17.2-28.01,626----------
Est2026-Q1195.058.5--8.8--23.4-27.31,609----------
Act2025-Q4227.967.021.424.3102.852.4-49.41,5861,77952.23.1%68.7x7.7x
Act2025-Q3265.0128.034.025.0100.044.0-29.01,2611,37555.64.8%4.7x15.1x
Act2025-Q2196.045.0-2.05.019.0-27.0-25.01,0301,41550.0-0.5%2.1x12.1x
Act2025-Q1183.078.09.012.062.026.0-13.01,1191,25954.61.3%3.4x6.4x
Act2024-Q4159.3-88.6-5.5434.752.132.4-15.71,1581,28052.7-1.2%-21.9x6.3x
Act2024-Q3237.0138.037.043.0126.0-114.0-188.0773.01,53153.17.3%2.6x5.6x
Act2024-Q2181.0162.09.0112.017.0-82.0-68.0751.01,52052.62.2%5.2x23.0x
Act2024-Q1174.036.014.08.059.0-31.0-69.0870.01,55052.83.6%1.7x--
Act2023-Q4150.828.73.77.03.6-133.8-126.1912.61,59252.80.6%2.5x--
Act2023-Q3229.0-130.032.0-205.076.0-9.0-62.0885.01,43953.96.4%-5.7x--
Act2023-Q2165.01.0-6.0-30.0163.058.0-87.0869.01,43153.9-1.1%0.1x--
Act2023-Q1147.022.032.05.026.0-45.0-57.01,0651,32253.96.3%1.6x--
Act2022-Q4145.0-915.375.3-835.348.4-31.3-45.3925.91,20153.923.8%-26.6x--
Act2022-Q3163.0314.0299.0251.0163.091.0-60.0918.01,19354.057.7%26.2x--
Act2022-Q2121.0288.0273.0265.0542.0450.0-78.01,2001,20653.964.5%20.6x--
Act2022-Q1146.028.0685.0639.018.0-81.0-87.0718.01,26653.9130.1%2.3x--

AI Analysis

LLM Evaluations

Claude4/10UNDERWEIGHTFV: $52.00

Kenon is a complex, opaque holding company trading at a substantial premium to its fundamentals. The core asset—OPC Energy—is a decent Israeli power generator benefiting from rising electricity demand, but it carries heavy project-level debt ($3.1B+), faces FX translation risk (NIS/USD), and operates in a geopolitically volatile region. The stock trades at 66x trailing P/E and ~28x EV/FCF, pricing in growth that is far from assured given market liberalization headwinds, lumpy earnings, and a dividend policy that appears to exceed sustainable earnings. The Qoros arbitration ($300M) is likely unrecoverable, ZIM is at zero book value, and institutional holders are exiting. The 9.8% dividend yield looks attractive but is a classic value trap funded partly by asset liquidations rather than recurring cash flow. At current prices, risk/reward is poor—you're paying a growth premium for a business with shrinking earnings, high leverage, and concentrated geopolitical risk.

Catalyst A sharp correction in valuation multiple toward holdco-appropriate levels (20-30% discount to NAV), successful Qoros arbitration recovery (~$300M), or a major re-rating of OPC if Israeli data center demand materializes faster than expected.
Risk Subsidiary-level debt of $3.1B+ with project finance structures means a prolonged energy price downturn or geopolitical disruption to Israeli gas supply could trigger covenant violations and liquidity stress at OPC, with Kenon having limited ability to inject capital at the holdco level.
Trend
DETERIORATING
Mgmt
4/10
Quarter
4/10
Exp. Move
-8.0%

Valuation & Metrics

Market Stats

Price--
Market Cap$0M
Enterprise Value$194M
P/S Ratio0.0x
P/FCF--
EV/FCF2.0x
FCF Margin (TTM)10.9%
FCF Yield0.0%
Dividend Yield (TTM)--
Annual Dilution-1.1%
CurrencyUSD

TTM Financial Snapshot

Revenue$871.9M
Net Income$66.3M
Free Cash Flow$95.4M

Revenue Growth (YoY)+43.1%
EBITDA Margin36.5%
Net Margin7.6%
FCF Margin10.9%
CapEx % of Revenue13.4%
SBC % of Revenue5.0%
ROIC2.2%
WC Change % Rev-2.9%
Interest Coverage4.5x

Forward Outlook & Risk

Short Interest

Short % of Float0.4%
Short Shares0.1M
Days to Cover2.3
Change (vs Prior)+13.6%
Short % Float History
0.40%+0.20pp
0.1%0.2%0.3%0.4%04-3007-1509-1511-1401-1504-30

Options

Call IV (ATM)33%
Put IV (ATM)35%
ATM Spread4.8%
Call $OI (near money)$54K
Put $OI (near money)$18K
ATM ExpiryJuly 17, 2026 (56D)
ATM Strike$85.0
Major Expirations1
Near-money chain · July 17, 2026
StrikeCall Bid/AskCall OIPut Bid/AskPut OI
$70.00$14.40/$19.000$0.50/$1.8523
$75.00$10.10/$14.501$1.10/$2.5014
$80.00$6.10/$10.506$0.40/$4.904
$85.00$2.90/$7.0082$1.65/$6.400
$90.00$0.60/$5.004$4.00/$8.301
$95.00$0.05/$4.901$8.00/$12.300
$100.00$0.05/$4.801$12.50/$16.800
$105.00--/$4.801$17.00/$21.501
Snapshot: 2026-05-22

Forward Projections & Estimates

NTM Revenue Growth+6.1%
Forward FCF Margin13.4%
Forward EBITDA Margin32.4%
Forward P/FCF0.0x
Forward EV/FCF1.6x
Forward Int. Coverage3.3x
Model Risk Score7/10
Bankruptcy Odds8%
Est. Borrow Rate8.5%
Terminal EV/FCF10.0x
LT Growth3.0%
LT FCF Margin13.0%

Employees

Headcount344
Revenue / Employee$2,534,677
Gross Profit / Employee$426,808
2022: 150 → 2023: 325 → 2024: 344 → 2025: 354 (33% CAGR)

Institutional Ownership

Headline & net flow

NET BUYING

In Q1 2026 so far (quarter still filing), institutions are net buyers — bought 6.5% of float, sold 3.1%. 1 filer moved >1% of shares (1 buying, 0 selling).

Net flow · Q1 2026still filing
+3.5% of float (net)
Bought 6.5% · Sold 3.1%
44 filers reported (last quarter: 58)

Ownership composition

Active
10.1%(+6.8% YoY)
58 filers
hedge / family / endowment
Retail funds
Fidelity, Schwab, 401(k)
Passive
0.3%(-0.4% YoY)
2 filers
Vanguard, iShares, SPDR
Market makers
0.0%(+0.0% YoY)
2 filers
Citadel, Susquehanna
Insiders
Form 4 — latest per insider
0%25%50%75%100%2022-062023-032023-122024-092025-062026-03
ActiveRetail fundsPassiveMarket makersRetail direct

Top holders

Fund$ valueCost basisΔ QoQΔ YoYα lifeFund AUM
Clal Insurance Enterprises Holdings Ltd$330M$40.58+$48.6M+$81.1M-0.4%$16.53B
ARROWSTREET CAPITAL, LIMITED PARTNERSHIP$20.3M$35.20+$3.7M+$4.3M+0.1%$184.72B
Y.D. More Investments Ltd$17.3M$27.20−$62K+$970K+2.8%$2.52B
Altshuler Shaham Ltd$15.5M$22.44+$730K+$1.1M+0.4%$5.46B
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC$11.8M$28.82+$431K+$1.7M-0.2%$760.93B
BlackRock, Inc.Passive$10.3M$34.38+$1.1M+$1.8M-0.2%$5.69T
UBS Group AG$10.3M$43.21+$6.7M+$3.5M-0.3%$562.11B
CANADA PENSION PLAN INVESTMENT BOARD$5.2M$40.21+$0+$2.1M+0.6%$155.02B
LPL Financial LLC$4.2M$35.43−$3K+$1.5M-0.2%$372.65B
Invesco Ltd.$3.4M$37.37+$478K+$1.5M-0.2%$652.04B
Swiss National Bank$3.4M$39.42+$0+$13K-0.4%$173.67B
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO$2.5M$26.29+$944K−$1.8M-0.2%$1.47T
CITIGROUP INC$2.4M$21.15−$155K−$3.8M-0.3%$156.55B
STIFEL FINANCIAL CORP$2.4M$66.64+$50K+$2.4M-0.3%$108.17B
RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC$2.3M$35.90+$881K+$807K+1.2%$63.91B
Redhawk Wealth Advisors, Inc.$2.0M$30.67−$293K−$389K+0.0%$893M
Bridgewater Associates, LP$2.0M$76.45+$1.3M+$2.0M-0.1%$22.35B
Legal & General Group Plc$2.0M$49.99+$1.1M+$801K-0.1%$432.24B
Sowell Financial Services LLC$2.0M$46.47−$566K+$2.0M+0.1%$2.68B
THRIVENT FINANCIAL FOR LUTHERANS$1.6M$43.93−$713K+$1.6M-0.2%$51.55B
Cost basis is a volume-weighted estimate from accumulation periods within our 13F history; holders who built their position before our window started will show a stale basis. % above the cost basis is the unrealized gain at the current price.

Trading behavior

Smart-money alpha (lifetime, %/qtr)BEARISH
Holders
-0.18%
avg per quarter
Holders (ex-self)
-0.20%
excl. this stock
Buyers (this Q)
-0.33%
33 buyers · $0.14B in
Sellers (this Q)
+2.26%
15 sellers · $-0.00B out
alpha coverage: 100% of $ has a lifetime-alpha record
Holder behavior on this stocksource: stock
On big dips (−10%+)
+1.5%
how holders react when this stock falls
On quiet Qs
-5.1%
−10% to +10% baseline
On rallies (+10%+)
+10.6%
how they react when this stock rises
Holders' portfolio flow this Q
-2.7%
outflows — trims may be forced
Sellers' portfolio flow this Q
+4.1%
Sellers grew AUM elsewhere — opinionated cut of this stock.
▸ Compare to holder-profile behavior (across all their stocks)
Holder dip (any stock)
-6.1%
Holder mid (any stock)
-3.5%
Holder rally (any stock)
-8.3%

Top Holders Over Time

5-year share-count history (top 10 holders by peak, incl. exited) + price

01.6M3.3M4.9M6.5M$17$33$50$66$822021-062022-062023-062024-062025-062026-03
hover the chart for per-quarter detailprice (right axis)
Clal Insurance Enterprises Holdings Ltd4.0MAltshuler Shaham Ltd189KMEITAV INVESTMENT HOUSE LTD11KMIRAE ASSET GLOBAL ETFS HOLDINGS Ltd.ARROWSTREET CAPITAL, LIMITED PARTNERSHIP248KKranot Hishtalmut Le Morim Ve Gananot Havera Menahelet LTDY.D. More Investments Ltd211KGOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC143KUBS Group AG125KBank of New York Mellon Corp

Corporate

Order Flow (FINRA, ~3w lag)

30.1%retail+1.8pp
17.5%dark+0.8pp
week of 2026-04-13
0%10%20%30%40%50%24-1125-0225-0525-0825-1126-0226-04retail (non-ATS)dark (ATS)
Off-exchange volume from FINRA. Retail = non-ATS (wholesaler PFOF + broker internalization). Dark = ATS (dark-pool crossing networks, institutional). Lit-exchange = remainder.

Filing Risk Analysis

Filing Risk Scores

Kenon Holdings: A Volatile Holding Shell Masking Associate Decay and Aggressive Capital Returns

Overall Risk
7/10
Fraud
3/10
Dilution
4/10
Insolvency
5/10
Earnings Overstated
6/10
Hidden Liabilities
5/10
Legal
6/10
Audit Warnings
4/10
Hidden Upside
5/10
Contextually Acceptable
4/10

Counter-Thesis

Counter-Thesis & Recent News

📰 Recent News

In March 2026, Kenon reported a dramatic 94% year-over-year plummet in Q4 2025 net income attributable to common shareholders, despite a 43% rise in revenue. Its core subsidiary, OPC Energy, reported a comprehensive loss of NIS 469 million for 2025, primarily driven by a 12.5% USD/NIS exchange rate decline and foreign currency translation losses. Additionally, Kenon announced a $200 million interim dividend ($3.85/share) in April 2026, which critics argue is unsustainable given that the payout ratio currently exceeds the company's actual earnings (Simply Wall St, Quiver Quantitative, March/April 2026).

🐻 Bear Case

The primary bear case rests on a massive valuation disconnect; KEN trades at a trailing P/E of 66.1x, which is nearly 4x the Asian Renewable Energy industry average of 15.9x. Analysts at Seeking Alpha (Dec 2025) downgraded the stock to 'Hold,' noting that upside is fully priced in and current energy demand may be artificially inflated by an 'AI bubble' that could soon correct. Furthermore, earnings have shrunk by an average of 23.9% annually over the last five years, casting doubt on the company's ability to maintain its high-growth premium (Simply Wall St, Seeking Alpha).

🚩 Red Flags

Kenon faces significant leverage risks, with its subsidiary OPC Energy carrying $1.769 billion in debt and an additional $1.376 billion in associated project debt. A major concern is the difficulty in collecting a RMB 2.2 billion (~$300M) arbitration award against Shenzhen Baoneng related to the failed Qoros venture, which remains a 'frozen' asset with uncertain recovery. Additionally, several institutional investors, including Kingstone Capital and Altshuler Shaham, have recently exited or significantly reduced their positions (20-F Filing, Quiver Quantitative).

⚔️ Competitive Threats

The liberalization of the Israeli energy market is a looming threat, as it is expected to introduce new private competitors and potentially stabilize or lower energy tariffs that were previously expected to rise. Furthermore, ongoing Middle East geopolitical conflict poses a direct physical threat to OPC's infrastructure and gas supply chains, while the broader shift toward renewable energy in the US could pressure the margins of its conventional power generation projects if carbon regulations tighten (Seeking Alpha, 20-F Filing).

💬 Customer Sentiment

Investor sentiment is increasingly skeptical regarding 'earnings quality' as the company utilizes significant non-IFRS adjustments to mask net income declines. While income-seeking investors were initially buoyed by the April 2026 dividend, market commentary indicates growing fear that the dividend policy is being funded by asset liquidations (like the ZIM stake divestment) rather than recurring operational cash flow, making the current yield a potential 'value trap' (Simply Wall St, Perplexity Research).