Stocks/JAN

JAN

Janus Living, Inc.
Real Estate·REIT - Industrial
$26.77
$5.0B market cap
Claude Rating
1/10STRONG SHORT
Revenue
$224.8M
Free Cash Flow
$14.7M
Rev Growth
+9136.7%
FCF Margin
6.5%
P/FCF
341.0x
EV/FCF
270.4x
Fwd EV/EBITDA
--
Fair Value
$0.50
Upside
-98.1%

Janus Living, Inc. operates as a pure-play senior housing real estate investment trust. It owns communities across the United States that support residents with thoughtfully designed, highly amenitized environments. The company was founded in December 2025 and is headquartered in Denver, CO.

2-Year Price History

$26.76+13.4%
$23$24$25$26$27volMar 26Mar 26Apr 26Apr 26Apr 26Apr 26May 26May 26May 26May 26

Quarterly Financials & Projections

Quarterly Waterfall ($ M)
PeriodRevEBITDAOpInNIOCFFCFCapExCashDebtSharesROICIntCovEV/EBITDA
Est2027-Q24.0-4.4---6.8---3.6-0.01,013----------
Est2027-Q13.5-4.2---6.3---3.5-0.01,016----------
Est2026-Q46.0-3.9---6.6---3.0-0.01,020----------
Est2026-Q34.5-4.1---6.3---3.2-0.01,023----------
Est2026-Q25.5-4.1---7.2---3.0-0.01,026----------
Est2026-Q14.0-4.0---6.0---3.2-0.01,029----------
Act2026-Q1200.380.81.131.333.313.3-20.01,0380.0187.20.1%230.0x--
Est2025-Q47.0-3.5---6.3---2.8-0.01,032----------
Est2025-Q35.0-4.0---6.0---3.0-0.01,035----------
Act2025-Q26.4-5.5-5.5-9.11.51.5-0.09.622.218.6-42.0%-10.0x--
Act2025-Q15.5-2.2-2.2-2.9-1.5-1.5-0.010.813.70.2-21.6%-3.0x--
Act2024-Q412.5-1.5-1.918.71.41.4-0.07.212.511.2-12.5%-1.7x--
Act2024-Q22.2-2.8-2.90.60.10.1-0.05.810.58.4-19.5%----
Act2024-Q10.0-1.8-1.8-2.1-0.5-0.5-0.00.12.96.3-42.8%----
Act2023-Q40.0-1.4-1.8-14.2-0.4-0.4-0.00.00.75.0-37.3%----
Act2023-Q30.0-0.1-0.8-0.2-0.4-0.4-0.00.40.04.2-14.3%----
Act2023-Q20.00.8-1.10.1-0.1-0.1-0.00.20.03.7-20.6%2.2x--
Act2023-Q10.0-0.5-1.1-0.72.42.3-0.00.40.13.2-17.0%-1.0x--
Act2022-Q411.23.43.1-6.2-0.7-1.8-0.60.112.53.234.0%0.4x--
Act2022-Q38.6-1.5-1.8-2.1-3.9-4.6-0.00.912.33.2-35.1%-41.0x--
Act2022-Q210.5-0.8-1.310.7-0.6-1.4-0.81.27.13.5-28.2%----
Act2022-Q19.3-3.4-1.11.22.11.8-0.12.35.73.3-76.6%----
Historical Valuation

Multiples vs the company's own history — cheap or rich relative to itself? Historical fiscal years, then TTM, then forward projections (E). Forward rows hold today's price against projected earnings, so the multiple compresses if the company grows into it.

YearPriceRev GrEBITDA %EBITDAEV/EBITDAEV/FCFP/EP/S
2022-5.8%-2
2023-100.0%-1
TTM26.77+10262.8%31.9%720.0×0.0×0.0×0.0×
2026E26.77-91.1%-0.8%-0n/mn/mn/m0.0×

EBITDA in reporting-currency $M. Historical multiples use year-end market cap (split-adjusted price history); TTM & forward years use today's.

AI Analysis

LLM Evaluations

Claude1/10STRONG SHORTFV: $0.50

JAN is a deeply distressed micro-cap with a toxic capital structure featuring predatory 48% APR debt, going concern warnings, a 194% annual dilution rate, SEC fraud settlement history, and entrenched related-party governance issues involving the CEO's family. Revenue is tiny ($26M TTM), erratic, and from a thin-margin fintech business, while the biotech segment is dormant. The $208M market cap is divorced from any reasonable fundamental valuation - common equity is likely worth near zero given preferred stock priority, compounding debt obligations, and negative working capital. This is a textbook 'strong sell' with significant risk of total loss for common shareholders.

Catalyst The compounding 4% monthly (48% APR) interest on debentures past January 2025 creates an accelerating liquidity crisis. Any failure to refinance or raise capital will force dilutive conversions or bankruptcy. Upcoming earnings could expose further deterioration.
Risk To a short position: the company could announce a reverse merger, asset sale, or some transformative transaction that temporarily inflates the stock price despite fundamentally impaired economics. Illiquid micro-caps can squeeze violently.
Trend
DETERIORATING
Mgmt
2/10
Quarter
2/10
Exp. Move
-15.0%

Valuation & Metrics

Market Stats

Price$26.77
Market Cap$5.0B
Enterprise Value$4.0B
P/S Ratio22.3x
P/FCF341.0x
EV/FCF270.4x
FCF Margin (TTM)6.5%
FCF Yield0.3%
Dividend Yield (TTM)0.6%
Annual Dilution2127.8%
CurrencyUSD

TTM Financial Snapshot

Revenue$224.8M
Net Income$38.0M
Free Cash Flow$14.7M

Revenue Growth (YoY)+9136.7%
EBITDA Margin31.9%
Net Margin16.9%
FCF Margin6.5%
CapEx % of Revenue8.9%
SBC % of Revenue-0.2%
ROIC-19.0%
WC Change % Rev-47.1%
Interest Coverage28.6x

DCF Fair Value Estimate

$5.25
-80.4% upside
Fair Enterprise Value$-55M
− Net Debt$-1.0B
= Fair Equity$982M
Revenue Growth-16.3% → 1.0%
FCF Margin6.5% → -20.0%
Discount Rate18.0%
Terminal EV/FCF6.0x

Forward Outlook & Risk

Short Interest

Short % of Float5.8%
Short Shares2.3M
Days to Cover3.0
Change (vs Prior)+24.2%
Short % Float History
5.80%-2.80pp
5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%9.0%03-3104-1504-30

Forward Projections & Estimates

NTM Revenue Growth-90.4%
Forward FCF Margin-55.9%
Forward EBITDA Margin-72.7%
Forward P/FCF--
Forward EV/FCF--
Forward Int. Coverage-3.7x
Model Risk Score10/10
Bankruptcy Odds70%
Est. Borrow Rate48.0%
Terminal EV/FCF3.0x
LT Growth0.0%
LT FCF Margin-20.0%

Employees

Headcount5
Revenue / Employee$44,953,800
Gross Profit / Employee$-6,797,400

Institutional Ownership

Headline & net flow

NEUTRAL
Net flow · still filing
No float data — flow unavailable.

Ownership composition

Active
21.5%
99 filers
hedge / family / endowment
Retail funds
Fidelity, Schwab, 401(k)
Passive
3.0%
6 filers
Vanguard, iShares, SPDR
Market makers
0.6%
5 filers
Citadel, Susquehanna
Insiders
Form 4 — latest per insider
Not enough quarterly ownership history to chart yet.

Top holders

Fund$ valueCost basisΔ QoQΔ YoYα lifeFund AUM
MASSACHUSETTS FINANCIAL SERVICES CO /MA/$110M$23.57+$103M+$110M$297.48B
PRUDENTIAL FINANCIAL INC$78.2M$23.57+$78.2M+$78.2M$81.20B
Long Pond Capital, LP$77.5M$23.57+$77.5M+$77.5M$978M
BlackRock, Inc.Passive$70.3M$23.57+$70.3M+$70.3M$5.69T
DEUTSCHE BANK AG\$69.5M$23.57+$69.5M+$69.5M$302.17B
CENTERSQUARE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT LLC$46.7M$23.57+$46.7M+$46.7M$9.67B
CITADEL ADVISORS LLC$40.3M$23.57+$40.3M+$40.3M$138.22B
VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLCPassive$39.8M$23.57+$39.8M+$39.8M$1.91T
Invesco Ltd.$36.5M$23.57+$36.5M+$36.5M$652.04B
PRINCIPAL FINANCIAL GROUP INC$36.4M$23.57+$36.4M+$36.4M$186.29B
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLCPassive$36.2M$23.57+$36.2M+$36.2M$4.04T
Alyeska Investment Group, L.P.$34.2M$23.57+$34.2M+$34.2M$35.33B
Nuveen, LLC$33.6M$23.57+$33.6M+$33.6M$368.63B
JANUS HENDERSON GROUP PLC$32.0M$23.57+$32.1M+$32.0M$209.29B
Conversant Capital LLC$28.5M$23.57+$28.5M+$28.5M$725M
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO$25.5M$23.57+$26.3M+$25.5M$1.47T
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC$21.2M$23.57+$21.2M+$21.2M$760.93B
Holocene Advisors, LP$19.4M$23.57+$19.4M+$19.4M$41.28B
Ghisallo Capital Management LLC$17.7M$23.57+$17.7M+$17.7M$2.56B
Resolution Capital Ltd$15.9M$23.57+$15.9M+$15.9M$4.76B
Cost basis is a volume-weighted estimate from accumulation periods within our 13F history; holders who built their position before our window started will show a stale basis. % above the cost basis is the unrealized gain at the current price.

Trading behavior

Smart-money alpha (lifetime, %/qtr)BEARISH
Holders
-0.58%
avg per quarter
Holders (ex-self)
excl. this stock
Buyers (this Q)
-0.58%
110 buyers · $1.26B in
Sellers (this Q)
+0.00%
0 sellers · $0.00B out
alpha coverage: 94% of $ has a lifetime-alpha record
Holder behavior (holder profile)source: holder
On big dips (−10%+)
-5.6%
how holders react when this stock falls
On quiet Qs
-5.8%
−10% to +10% baseline
On rallies (+10%+)
-8.6%
how they react when this stock rises
Holders' portfolio flow this Q
+2.6%
inflows — adds are organic
Sellers' portfolio flow this Q
+0.0%
Sellers' overall flow ~ flat.

Top Holders Over Time

5-year share-count history (top 10 holders by peak, incl. exited) + price

Not enough holder history to plot.

Analyst Coverage

Analyst Coverage
Price Targets
Last Quarter (10 analysts)$27.80380.0%
Last Year (10 analysts)$27.80380.0%
Current Price$26.77
Analyst Ratings
2
Buy: 2Consensus: Buy
Consensus Estimates
QuarterRevenueEBITDANet IncEPSEPS Range# Analysts
2026 Q3235M48M19M$0.10$0.10 – $0.112
2026 Q4247M51M21M$0.11$0.10 – $0.121
2027 Q1269M55M14M$0.07$0.07 – $0.081
2027 Q2285M59M15M$0.08$0.07 – $0.081
2027 Q3295M60M14M$0.07$0.07 – $0.081
2027 Q4306M63M15M$0.08$0.08 – $0.091
2028 Q1339M69M0M$0.00$0.00 – $0.001
2028 Q2350M72M0M$0.00$0.00 – $0.001
2028 Q3360M74M0M$0.00$0.00 – $0.001
2028 Q4372M76M0M$0.00$0.00 – $0.001

Corporate

Insider Trading (last 12mo)

Open-market only (Form 4 P-Purchase + S-Sale). Excludes grants, option exercises, tax withholding, gifts.
Officers & directors
Buys ($, 12mo)
$3.74M
6 txns · 6 insiders · 187,000 sh
Sells ($, 12mo)
$0
0 txns · 0 insiders · 0 sh
Recent transactions
DateSideInsiderTitleSharesPriceDollarsOwned $
2026-03-23BUYArabia John Vdirector60,000$20.00$1.20M$1.35M
2026-03-23BUYBrinker Scott Mdirector, officer: PRESIDENT & CEO100,000$20.00$2.00M$2.00M
2026-03-23BUYHERMAN CHARLES J JRdirector5,500$20.00$110K$260K
2026-03-23BUYMiller Jeffrey Hofficer: CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER7,500$20.00$150K$150K
2026-03-23BUYOlsen Denisedirector500$20.00$10K$160K
2026-03-23BUYSandstrom Katherine Mdirector13,500$20.00$270K$420K

Order Flow (FINRA, ~3w lag)

25.3%retail
36.7%dark
week of 2026-04-13
0%10%20%30%40%26-0326-0326-0326-0426-04retail (non-ATS)dark (ATS)
Off-exchange volume from FINRA. Retail = non-ATS (wholesaler PFOF + broker internalization). Dark = ATS (dark-pool crossing networks, institutional). Lit-exchange = remainder.

Revenue Breakdown

Revenue Segments

By Product (2026-Q1)
Resident Fees and Services$200.3MNEW

Filing Risk Analysis

Filing Risk Scores

Janus Living, Inc.: A Carve-Out REIT with Non-Cash Earnings and Significant Parent Overhang

Overall Risk
6/10
Fraud
3/10
Dilution
8/10
Insolvency
2/10
Earnings Overstated
7/10
Hidden Liabilities
4/10
Legal
3/10
Audit Warnings
5/10
Hidden Upside
4/10
Contextually Acceptable
6/10

Counter-Thesis

Counter-Thesis & Recent News

📰 Recent News

Janus Living (JAN) went public in March 2026 with an $840 million IPO, but has quickly drawn skepticism. In April 2026, market analysts at Benzinga flagged JAN as one of the 'Top 2 Real Estate Stocks That May Collapse,' citing extreme technical overextension with a Relative Strength Index (RSI) above 70. Additionally, the company announced it will report Q1 2026 earnings on May 5, 2026, which is being viewed by bears as a potential negative catalyst for a downward re-rating if occupancy or margin growth misses expectations (MarketBeat, Benzinga).

🐻 Bear Case

The bear case centers on a 'demanding' valuation and poor income profile for a REIT. Trading at 25x adjusted FFO with a meager 2.4% dividend yield, JAN is priced at a premium that many analysts believe is unsustainable given the high-interest-rate environment. The portfolio is dangerously concentrated, with 70% of its communities located in just two states—Texas and Florida—leaving it highly exposed to regional economic downturns or regulatory shifts in those specific markets (Seeking Alpha). Furthermore, its RIDEA operating structure exposes the company to direct operational costs, unlike traditional triple-net lease models, making it more vulnerable to labor inflation.

🚩 Red Flags

Simply Wall St highlights a 'mediocre balance sheet with a questionable track record' and notes that shares are highly illiquid, which could exacerbate price drops during a sell-off. There is also a significant concern regarding the relationship with its parent company, Healthpeak Properties (DOC), which retains a majority stake and serves as the external manager, creating potential conflicts of interest regarding asset transfers and management fees. The company has less than three years of independent financial data, making long-term performance difficult to project.

⚔️ Competitive Threats

JAN faces intense competition from established healthcare REITs such as Sabra Health Care REIT (SBRA), CareTrust REIT (CTRE), and National Health Investors (NHI). Unlike these peers, which have diversified healthcare portfolios, JAN is a 'pure-play' senior housing operator, making it the most vulnerable in the sector to any shifts in Medicare/Medicaid policy or spikes in nursing labor costs. Additionally, the rise of value-based care (VBC) partnerships is pressuring traditional operators to increase capital expenditures to keep pace with clinical integration (NIC.org).

💬 Customer Sentiment

While resident-specific sentiment data is limited due to the company's recent formation, industry risk assessments for the JAN portfolio highlight ongoing concerns regarding 'reputation management' and 'regulatory survey risk.' In the broader senior living sector, customer sentiment is frequently impacted by staffing shortages and the rising cost of care, which JAN is directly exposed to under its RIDEA structure. Analysts have noted that any 'family complaints' or 'quality of care' issues would immediately impair the REIT's ability to maintain its 85% occupancy rate (RiskMap).