Stocks/IESC

IESC

IES Holdings, Inc.
Industrials·Engineering & Construction
$678.35
$13.5B market cap
Claude Rating
4/10UNDERWEIGHT
Revenue
$3.6B
Free Cash Flow
$318.4M
Rev Growth
+16.8%
FCF Margin
8.8%
P/FCF
42.5x
EV/FCF
42.0x
Fwd EV/EBITDA
26.6x
Fair Value
$310.00
Upside
-54.3%

IES Holdings, Inc. designs and installs integrated electrical and technology systems, and provides infrastructure products and services in the United States. Its Commercial & Industrial segment offers electrical and mechanical design, construction, and maintenance services for office buildings, manufacturing facilities, data centers, chemical plants, refineries, wind farms, solar facilities, municipal infrastructures, and health care facilities. Its Communications segment designs, installs, and

2-Year Price History

$659.65+332.7%
$200$300$400$500$600volMay 24Sep 24Jan 25May 25Sep 25Jan 26May 26

Quarterly Financials & Projections

Quarterly Waterfall ($ M)
PeriodRevEBITDAOpInNIOCFFCFCapExCashDebtSharesROICIntCovEV/EBITDA
Est2028-Q1990.0120.8--87.1--19.8-37.6789.0----------
Est2027-Q41,040140.4--106.1--130.0-26.0769.2----------
Est2027-Q31,020134.6--100.0--76.5-30.6639.2----------
Est2027-Q2980.0125.4--91.1--39.2-34.3562.7----------
Est2027-Q1940.0117.5--84.6--23.5-37.6523.5----------
Est2026-Q4980.0135.2--102.9--127.4-24.5500.0----------
Est2026-Q3960.0129.6--96.0--76.8-28.8372.6----------
Est2026-Q2920.0117.8--87.4--32.2-32.2295.8----------
Act2026-Q2974.2128.4112.3110.0133.9102.1-31.8263.6107.420.234.2%85.6x19.1x
Act2026-Q1871.0116.697.791.476.029.4-46.6258.7131.620.235.2%372.4x17.0x
Act2025-Q4897.8121.4104.4101.8132.0112.0-20.0231.888.120.249.1%244.7x13.3x
Act2025-Q3890.2120.8111.977.292.074.8-17.2168.372.720.258.2%226.2x8.4x
Act2025-Q2834.092.792.770.724.87.9-17.088.351.720.255.9%348.5x11.3x
Act2025-Q1749.689.374.656.337.324.1-13.2112.041.120.352.2%172.3x10.7x
Act2024-Q4775.886.675.063.292.878.5-14.3135.862.420.559.6%618.4x7.9x
Act2024-Q3768.4100.290.262.182.965.4-17.544.938.720.579.3%253.7x7.9x
Act2024-Q2705.784.277.752.933.726.9-6.8106.038.220.574.8%207.3x5.9x
Act2024-Q1634.466.958.041.025.018.4-6.587.542.320.462.3%168.6x6.0x
Act2023-Q4649.063.053.237.857.350.9-6.475.861.620.463.5%158.3x6.0x
Act2023-Q3584.541.434.322.636.632.0-4.628.636.120.452.3%105.8x5.6x
Act2023-Q2568.940.231.621.645.741.8-4.015.150.920.447.1%40.9x5.5x
Act2023-Q1574.946.327.726.414.311.6-2.75.380.820.534.0%39.1x6.5x
Act2022-Q4617.432.625.016.234.131.4-2.724.9137.120.729.4%26.5x9.1x
Act2022-Q3567.321.815.69.5-14.9-19.9-5.017.1123.820.920.6%28.7x--
Act2022-Q2501.61.2-4.9-5.421.612.3-9.319.397.920.8-7.0%2.2x--
Act2022-Q1480.525.720.314.5-24.5-36.8-12.37.895.421.030.9%58.9x--

AI Analysis

LLM Evaluations

Claude4/10UNDERWEIGHTFV: $310.00

IES Holdings is an exceptionally well-run specialty contractor riding the data center/AI infrastructure megatrend, with margins at multi-year highs, zero debt, and a 47% ROIC. However, the stock at ~$442 is pricing in sustained 20%+ revenue growth and margin expansion that is unrealistic given competitive dynamics, residential weakness, and the inherent cyclicality of construction spending. At 39x TTM FCF, the market is capitalizing peak-cycle earnings at a premium multiple, creating significant downside risk if hyperscaler capex pauses or margins normalize. Massive insider selling ($118M+ by the Executive Chairman alone) corroborates that management views the stock as fully valued. The Tontine control structure and growing marketable securities portfolio add governance complexity. This is a great business at a stretched valuation — better entry points likely ahead.

Catalyst A pause or slowdown in hyperscaler data center capital spending would expose the cyclicality embedded in the Communications segment growth and trigger a de-rating. Alternatively, continued residential weakness or integration issues with Gulf Island Fabrication could weigh on near-term results.
Risk Sustained hyperscaler capex growth and successful execution of the Gulf Island acquisition could drive earnings above projections, pushing the stock higher despite current valuation concerns.
Trend
STABLE
Mgmt
7/10
Quarter
5/10
Exp. Move
-3.0%

Valuation & Metrics

Market Stats

Price$678.35
Market Cap$13.5B
Enterprise Value$13.4B
P/S Ratio3.7x
P/FCF42.5x
EV/FCF42.0x
FCF Margin (TTM)8.8%
FCF Yield2.4%
Dividend Yield (TTM)--
Annual Dilution-0.1%
CurrencyUSD

TTM Financial Snapshot

Revenue$3.6B
Net Income$380.5M
Free Cash Flow$318.4M

Revenue Growth (YoY)+16.8%
EBITDA Margin13.4%
Net Margin10.5%
FCF Margin8.8%
CapEx % of Revenue3.2%
SBC % of Revenue0.3%
ROIC44.2%
WC Change % Rev8.7%
Interest Coverage171.3x

DCF Fair Value Estimate

$178.69
-73.7% upside
Fair Enterprise Value$3.5B
− Net Debt$-156M
= Fair Equity$3.6B
Revenue Growth6.1% → 5.0%
FCF Margin8.8% → 8.0%
Discount Rate14.0%
Terminal EV/FCF16.0x

Forward Outlook & Risk

Short Interest

Short % of Float4.1%
Short Shares0.8M
Days to Cover3.4
Change (vs Prior)+7.8%
Short % Float History
4.10%+0.70pp
3.4%3.6%3.8%4.0%4.2%4.4%4.6%4.8%04-3007-1509-1511-1401-1504-30

Options

Call IV (ATM)64%
Put IV (ATM)64%
ATM Spread1.0%
Call $OI (near money)$3.6M
Put $OI (near money)$920K
ATM ExpiryJuly 17, 2026 (56D)
ATM Strike$660.0
Major Expirations5
Near-money chain · July 17, 2026
StrikeCall Bid/AskCall OIPut Bid/AskPut OI
$580.00$109.00/$116.0011$27.20/$32.9019
$600.00$96.60/$103.0011$34.30/$39.7019
$620.00$84.90/$91.0025$42.20/$48.2012
$640.00$74.40/$81.0020$50.50/$58.005
$660.00$64.40/$71.0033$60.30/$67.503
$680.00$55.00/$62.0045$71.10/$79.001
$700.00$47.10/$54.0041$83.10/$91.004
$720.00$38.50/$46.706$95.50/$103.800
Snapshot: 2026-05-22

Forward Projections & Estimates

NTM Revenue Growth+4.6%
Forward FCF Margin6.8%
Forward EBITDA Margin13.2%
Forward P/FCF52.0x
Forward EV/FCF51.4x
Forward Int. Coverage--
Model Risk Score6/10
Bankruptcy Odds0%
Est. Borrow Rate4.5%
Terminal EV/FCF16.0x
LT Growth5.0%
LT FCF Margin8.0%

Employees

Headcount9,423
Revenue / Employee$385,558
Gross Profit / Employee$98,834
2022: 8,078 → 2023: 8,427 → 2024: 9,485 → 2025: 10,283 (8% CAGR)

Institutional Ownership

Headline & net flow

NET BUYING

In Q1 2026 so far (quarter still filing), institutions are net buyers — bought 4.3% of float, sold 1.4%. 1 filer moved >1% of shares (1 buying, 0 selling).

Net flow · Q1 2026still filing
+2.9% of float (net)
Bought 4.3% · Sold 1.4%
367 filers reported (last quarter: 357)

Ownership composition

Active
60.8%(+40.1% YoY)
326 filers
hedge / family / endowment
Retail funds
Fidelity, Schwab, 401(k)
Passive
6.5%(+3.1% YoY)
6 filers
Vanguard, iShares, SPDR
Market makers
0.1%(+0.1% YoY)
6 filers
Citadel, Susquehanna
Insiders
60.7%
Form 4 — latest per insider
0%25%50%75%100%2022-062023-032023-122024-092025-062026-03
ActiveRetail fundsPassiveMarket makersRetail direct

Top holders

Fund$ valueCost basisΔ QoQΔ YoYα lifeFund AUM
GENDELL JEFFREY L$4.93B$40.20−$3.9M−$180M-1.4%$7.34B
FMR LLC$1.13B$199.04+$169M+$119M+0.3%$1.89T
BlackRock, Inc.Passive$338M$203.00−$6.3M−$21.3M-0.2%$5.69T
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LPPassive$218M$46.92+$420K−$88.3M-0.4%$480.92B
FIRST TRUST ADVISORS LP$166M$410.22+$47.8M+$151M-0.9%$139.72B
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLCPassive$141M$226.71+$10.1M+$20.9M+2.3%$1.61T
Pertento Partners LLP$110M$334.51+$10.4M+$110M-0.8%$942M
STATE STREET CORPPassive$98.9M$134.27+$781K+$4.8M-0.2%$2.89T
UBS Group AG$85.0M$356.30+$42.7M+$60.5M-0.3%$562.11B
MORGAN STANLEY$84.6M$155.35+$2.9M−$14.3M-0.3%$1.65T
FRANKLIN RESOURCES INC$78.7M$203.28+$5.3M+$17.8M-0.2%$403.03B
ARROWSTREET CAPITAL, LIMITED PARTNERSHIP$74.5M$194.87−$4.0M+$39.5M+0.1%$184.72B
THRIVENT FINANCIAL FOR LUTHERANS$72.7M$186.41+$5K−$43.2M-0.3%$51.55B
ROYCE & ASSOCIATES LP$71.0M$208.70−$10.6M−$13.9M-1.0%$10.09B
AltraVue Capital, LLC$61.8M$71.72−$6.1M−$13.2M+1.5%$1.16B
Parsifal Capital Management, LP$42.9M$394.60−$4.8M+$42.9M-0.7%$775M
CHARLES SCHWAB INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC$39.8M$225.30+$957K+$3.7M+1.0%$645.81B
RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC$39.2M$82.53−$7.2M−$32.4M+1.2%$63.91B
AMERICAN CENTURY COMPANIES INC$38.3M$212.69−$6.6M+$12.8M+0.3%$193.48B
Invesco Ltd.$37.0M$152.78−$6.7M+$6.7M-0.2%$652.04B
Cost basis is a volume-weighted estimate from accumulation periods within our 13F history; holders who built their position before our window started will show a stale basis. % above the cost basis is the unrealized gain at the current price.

Trading behavior

Smart-money alpha (lifetime, %/qtr)BEARISH
Holders
+5.32%
avg per quarter
Holders (ex-self)
-0.88%
excl. this stock
Buyers (this Q)
-0.04%
173 buyers · $0.81B in
Sellers (this Q)
+8.25%
114 sellers · $-0.97B out
alpha coverage: 100% of $ has a lifetime-alpha record
Holder behavior on this stocksource: stock
On big dips (−10%+)
-17.0%
how holders react when this stock falls
On quiet Qs
-6.5%
−10% to +10% baseline
On rallies (+10%+)
-3.4%
how they react when this stock rises
Holders' portfolio flow this Q
+4.5%
inflows — adds are organic
Sellers' portfolio flow this Q
+6.2%
Sellers grew AUM elsewhere — opinionated cut of this stock.
▸ Compare to holder-profile behavior (across all their stocks)
Holder dip (any stock)
+3.0%
Holder mid (any stock)
-1.7%
Holder rally (any stock)
-6.5%

Top Holders Over Time

5-year share-count history (top 10 holders by peak, incl. exited) + price

03.6M7.1M10.7M14.3M$28$140$252$364$4762021-062022-062023-062024-062025-062026-03
hover the chart for per-quarter detailprice (right axis)
GENDELL JEFFREY L10.3MFMR LLC2.4MFIRST TRUST ADVISORS LP349KPertento Partners LLP231KUBS Group AG178KMORGAN STANLEY178KFRANKLIN RESOURCES INC165KARROWSTREET CAPITAL, LIMITED PARTNERSHIP156KTHRIVENT FINANCIAL FOR LUTHERANS153KROYCE & ASSOCIATES LP149K

Related Stocks

Investors who own this also own

Stocks held by the same active managers as this one, ranked by score — how much more often these appear together than random chance (1× = baseline). Excludes index ETFs and market makers; minimum 3 shared holders.

TickerNameCo-holdersScore
COMPCompass, Inc.378.74×

Analyst Coverage

Analyst Coverage
Price Targets
Last Year (1 analysts)$458.00-3250.0%
Current Price$678.35

Corporate

Executive Compensation (2023-2025)

Direct Pay$44.7M
Incentive & Other$23.2M
Total Compensation$67.9M
% of Revenue0.7%

Insider Trading (last 12mo)

Open-market only (Form 4 P-Purchase + S-Sale). Excludes grants, option exercises, tax withholding, gifts.
Officers & directors
Buys ($, 12mo)
$0
0 txns · 0 insiders · 0 sh
Sells ($, 12mo)
$54.85M
26 txns · 8 insiders · 121,567 sh
Major holders (≥10% beneficial owners)
Buys ($, 12mo)
$0
0 txns · 0 insiders · 0 sh
Sells ($, 12mo)
$219.72M
23 txns · 1 insider · 477,237 sh
Recent transactions
DateSideInsiderTitleSharesPriceDollarsOwned $
2026-05-14SELLGENDELL JEFFREY L ET ALdirector, 10 percent owner, officer: Executive Chairman39,361$694.01$27.32M$7.28B
2026-05-13SELLGENDELL JEFFREY L ET ALdirector, 10 percent owner, officer: Executive Chairman15,000$692.71$10.39M$7.29B
2026-05-08SELLCleveland Todd Mdirector11,578$663.52$7.68M$43.67M
2026-05-08SELLGENDELL JEFFREY L ET ALdirector, 10 percent owner, officer: Executive Chairman7,052$674.25$4.75M$7.11B
2026-05-08SELLMcLauchlin Tracyofficer: SVP & CFO3,000$662.61$1.99M$41.43M
2026-05-07SELLGENDELL JEFFREY L ET ALdirector, 10 percent owner, officer: Executive Chairman1$677.47$677$7.15B
2026-05-06SELLCleveland Todd Mdirector922$681.55$628K$52.75M
2026-05-06SELLGENDELL JEFFREY L ET ALdirector, 10 percent owner, officer: Executive Chairman40,103$677.19$27.16M$7.14B
2026-05-05SELLSimmes Matthew Jofficer: President and CEO7,000$658.24$4.61M$56.99M
2026-03-04SELLCleveland Todd Mdirector1,425$500.84$714K$39.11M
2026-03-03SELLCleveland Todd Mdirector875$501.13$438K$39.85M
2026-03-02SELLCleveland Todd Mdirector200$513.54$103K$41.40M
2026-02-26SELLCleveland Todd Mdirector1,700$511.29$869K$41.32M
2026-02-25SELLCleveland Todd Mdirector3,119$511.81$1.60M$42.23M
2026-02-24SELLCleveland Todd Mdirector181$520.25$94K$44.55M
2026-02-18SELLSimmes Matthew Jofficer: President and CEO5,000$506.26$2.53M$47.37M
2026-02-17SELLGENDELL JEFFREY L ET ALdirector, 10 percent owner, officer: Executive Chairman320$520.43$167K$5.51B
2026-02-13SELLGENDELL JEFFREY L ET ALdirector, 10 percent owner, officer: Executive Chairman2,791$520.10$1.45M$5.51B
2026-02-12SELLGENDELL JEFFREY L ET ALdirector, 10 percent owner, officer: Executive Chairman5,048$529.50$2.67M$5.61B
2025-12-15SELLAllen Matthew Michaelofficer: Chief Technical Officer700$457.95$321K$503K

Order Flow (FINRA, ~3w lag)

18.4%retail-3.0pp
23.0%dark-1.6pp
week of 2026-04-13
10%20%30%40%24-1125-0225-0525-0825-1126-0226-04retail (non-ATS)dark (ATS)
Off-exchange volume from FINRA. Retail = non-ATS (wholesaler PFOF + broker internalization). Dark = ATS (dark-pool crossing networks, institutional). Lit-exchange = remainder.

Revenue Breakdown

Revenue Segments

By Product (2026-Q1)
Communications$351.9M+51%
Residential$284.0M-11%
Infrastructure Solutions$140.2M+30%
Commercial and Industrial$94.8M+7%
By Geography (2019-Q1)
Other Member$7.5MNEW

Filing Risk Analysis

Filing Risk Scores

IES Holdings: A Construction Firm Moonlighting as a Related-Party Hedge Fund

Overall Risk
4/10
Fraud
2/10
Dilution
3/10
Insolvency
1/10
Earnings Overstated
4/10
Hidden Liabilities
3/10
Legal
3/10
Audit Warnings
2/10
Hidden Upside
6/10
Contextually Acceptable
7/10

Counter-Thesis

Counter-Thesis & Recent News

📰 Recent News

IES Holdings (IESC) reported a significant Q1 fiscal 2026 earnings miss on January 30, 2026, with an adjusted EPS of $3.71 compared to the $3.94 consensus estimate. Despite a 16% year-over-year revenue increase to $871 million, the stock fell approximately 11.6% in early March 2026 as the market digested the earnings miss and persistent weakness in the company's Residential segment, which saw an 11% revenue decline to $284.1 million due to a softening housing market (Sources: Investing.com, MarketBeat).

🐻 Bear Case

The bear case centers on peak cyclicality and valuation disconnect. Analysts at Simply Wall St and Seeking Alpha note that IESC's net margins (9-10%) are likely at or near cyclical highs, with limited room for further expansion. Furthermore, DCF models suggest a fair value of approximately $262.39, while the stock has recently traded between $380 and $450, implying a 30-45% overvaluation. There is also a significant risk that any normalization or 'pause' in hyperscaler data center spending—currently IESC's primary growth engine—would lead to a sharp de-rating of the stock (Sources: Simply Wall St, Seeking Alpha).

🚩 Red Flags

Aggressive insider selling is the primary red flag. In the six months leading up to March 2026, IESC insiders executed 99 sales and 0 purchases. Executive Chairman Jeffrey Gendell sold approximately 277,064 shares for an estimated $117.8 million, while CEO Matthew Simmes and Director Todd Cleveland also reduced their stakes significantly. This lack of insider buying at current levels suggests leadership may believe the stock is fully valued (Source: Quiver Quantitative). Additionally, 'fails-to-deliver' data spikes in late 2025 indicate periodic liquidity or settlement stress (Source: Fintel).

⚔️ Competitive Threats

IESC faces intensifying competition in the high-stakes data center and infrastructure sectors, which may lead to margin compression as more players pivot to these lucrative markets. The company's recent acquisition of Gulf Island Fabrication introduces significant integration risk, particularly if the expected operational leverage fails to materialize in a cooling economic environment. Additionally, the continued 'softness' in the residential housing market serves as a structural headwind for its Residential segment (Source: Investing.com).

💬 Customer Sentiment

While specific end-user reviews are scarce, the 'customer sentiment' is reflected in the 11% revenue decline within the Residential segment, indicating a pullback in demand from homebuilders and residential developers. Market analysts have highlighted that IESC's performance is no longer 'fully meeting market expectations,' resulting in a sector rotation where institutional investors like JPMorgan and SG Capital have recently trimmed their positions (Sources: Intellectia AI, MarketBeat).