HCM
HUTCHMED (China) LimitedHUTCHMED (China) Limited discovers, develops, and commercializes targeted therapeutics and immunotherapies for cancer and immunological diseases in HongKong and internationally. It operates in Oncology/Immunology and Other Ventures segments. The company develops Savolitinib, an inhibitor for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), papillary and renal cell carcinoma, colorectal cancer (CRC), and gastric cancer (GC); and Fruquintinib, an inhibitor for CRC, breast cancer, GC, endometrial cancer (EMC),
2-Year Price History
Quarterly Financials & Projections
| Period | Rev | EBITDA | OpIn | NI | OCF | FCF | CapEx | Cash | Debt | Shares | ROIC | IntCov | EV/EBITDA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Est | 2027-Q2 | 158.0 | 1.6 | -- | -3.2 | -- | -15.8 | -4.0 | 1,201 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q1 | 148.0 | -3.0 | -- | -7.4 | -- | -22.2 | -3.7 | 1,217 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q4 | 160.0 | 0.0 | -- | -4.8 | -- | -12.8 | -4.0 | 1,239 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q3 | 145.0 | -4.4 | -- | -8.7 | -- | -20.3 | -3.6 | 1,252 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q2 | 140.0 | -7.0 | -- | -11.2 | -- | -22.4 | -3.9 | 1,272 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q1 | 130.0 | -10.4 | -- | -15.6 | -- | -28.6 | -3.9 | 1,294 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2025-Q4 | 145.0 | -2.9 | -- | -7.3 | -- | -17.4 | -3.6 | 1,323 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2025-Q3 | 135.0 | -6.8 | -- | -10.8 | -- | -24.3 | -4.1 | 1,340 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Act | 2025-Q2 | 138.8 | 1.3 | -1.8 | 227.5 | -36.5 | -41.1 | -4.6 | 1,365 | 126.3 | 174.5 | -0.9% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2025-Q1 | 138.8 | 1.3 | -1.8 | 227.5 | -36.5 | -41.1 | -4.6 | 1,366 | 100.7 | 174.5 | -0.9% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2024-Q4 | 162.3 | -5.1 | -8.1 | 6.0 | 20.2 | 16.3 | -3.9 | 836.1 | 89.8 | 174.6 | -11.6% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2024-Q3 | 162.3 | -5.1 | -8.1 | 6.0 | 20.2 | 16.3 | -3.9 | 838.8 | 89.8 | 174.6 | -11.5% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2024-Q2 | 152.8 | -10.6 | -13.8 | 12.9 | -19.9 | -25.0 | -5.1 | 803.5 | 88.6 | 174.5 | -20.9% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2024-Q1 | 152.8 | -10.6 | -13.8 | 12.9 | -19.9 | -25.0 | -5.1 | 803.5 | 88.6 | 174.5 | -20.6% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2023-Q4 | 152.6 | -44.4 | -46.6 | -33.9 | -3.6 | -7.7 | -4.1 | 886.3 | 86.1 | 170.5 | -72.5% | -- | 77.1x |
| Act | 2023-Q3 | 152.6 | -44.4 | -46.6 | -33.9 | -3.6 | -7.7 | -4.1 | 889.0 | 86.1 | 170.5 | -71.8% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2023-Q2 | 266.4 | 57.7 | 55.8 | 84.3 | 113.2 | 101.0 | -12.2 | 856.2 | 40.2 | 173.4 | 81.0% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2023-Q1 | 266.4 | 57.7 | 55.8 | 84.3 | 113.2 | 101.0 | -12.2 | 858.4 | 40.2 | 173.4 | 80.0% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q4 | 112.2 | -103.3 | -105.5 | -99.0 | -89.4 | -99.8 | -10.5 | 631.0 | 27.0 | 169.0 | -476.0% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q3 | 112.2 | -103.3 | -105.5 | -99.0 | -89.4 | -99.8 | -10.5 | 633.3 | 27.0 | 169.0 | -470.9% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q2 | 202.1 | -96.2 | -196.8 | -162.9 | -89.9 | -105.6 | -15.8 | 826.2 | 0.4 | 169.9 | -300.5% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q1 | 101.0 | -96.2 | -98.4 | -81.4 | -44.9 | -52.8 | -7.9 | 829.7 | 0.4 | 169.9 | -147.9% | -- | -- |
Multiples vs the company's own history — cheap or rich relative to itself? Historical fiscal years, then TTM, then forward projections (E). Forward rows hold today's price against projected earnings, so the multiple compresses if the company grows into it.
| Year | Price | Rev Gr | EBITDA % | EBITDA | EV/EBITDA | EV/FCF | P/E | P/S |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 14.78 | — | -75.7% | -399 | n/m | n/m | n/m | 2.7× |
| 2023 | 18.11 | +58.9% | 3.2% | 27 | 77.1× | 11.0× | 28.3× | 3.4× |
| 2024 | 14.41 | -24.8% | -5.0% | -31 | n/m | n/m | 126.4× | 7.6× |
| TTM | 11.45 | -1.4% | -1.2% | -7 | 0.0× | 0.0× | 0.0× | 0.0× |
| 2026E | 11.45 | -4.5% | -0.0% | -0 | 0.0× | 0.0× | 0.0× | 0.0× |
EBITDA in reporting-currency $M. Historical multiples use year-end market cap (split-adjusted price history); TTM & forward years use today's.
AI Analysis
LLM Evaluations
HUTCHMED is a loss-making Chinese oncology company whose recent reported profitability was entirely an artifact of a one-time $477M divestment gain. The core business is deteriorating: lead drugs ELUNATE and ORPATHYS face intensifying competition and NRDL pricing pressure in China, TAZVERIK has been withdrawn due to safety concerns, and sovleplenib's approval is delayed. While the $1.37B cash balance provides ample runway (5+ years at current burn), the company trades at $2.66B market cap — implying significant pipeline value that is increasingly difficult to justify given declining China revenues, an accelerating cash burn ($73M in H1 2025), and a regulatory/competitive environment that is getting worse, not better. The growing Takeda royalty stream from global fruquintinib is a genuine positive but insufficient to offset domestic headwinds. At ~4.4x P/S on declining revenue with negative EBITDA, the stock is priced for a turnaround that faces long odds.
Valuation & Metrics
Market Stats
TTM Financial Snapshot
DCF Fair Value Estimate
Forward Outlook & Risk
Short Interest
Options
| Strike | Call Bid/Ask | Call OI | Put Bid/Ask | Put OI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $2.50 | $7.00/$11.90 | 0 | --/$4.90 | 0 |
| $5.00 | $4.50/$9.40 | 0 | --/$4.90 | 0 |
| $7.50 | $2.05/$6.90 | 0 | --/$4.90 | 0 |
| $10.00 | --/$4.90 | 0 | --/$1.50 | 0 |
| $12.50 | --/$4.90 | 0 | --/$4.90 | 0 |
| $15.00 | --/$4.90 | 0 | $0.80/$5.50 | 0 |
| $17.50 | --/$4.90 | 0 | $3.10/$7.90 | 0 |
| $20.00 | --/$4.90 | 0 | $5.60/$10.50 | 0 |
Forward Projections & Estimates
Employees
Institutional Ownership
Headline & net flow
In Q1 2026 so far (quarter still filing), institutions are roughly balanced — bought 0.1% of float, sold 0.7%.
Ownership composition
Top holders
| Fund | $ value | Cost basis | Δ QoQ | Δ YoY | α life | Fund AUM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SCHRODER INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT GROUP | $22.1M | $12.36 | −$12.0M | −$20.4M | -0.2% | $121.82B |
| Allianz Asset Management GmbH | $12.5M | $11.65 | −$1.1M | −$2.5M | -0.2% | $86.14B |
| STATE STREET CORPPassive | $4.6M | $12.32 | −$246K | −$479K | -0.2% | $2.89T |
| AIA Group Ltd | $4.4M | $12.31 | −$362K | −$362K | +1.4% | $6.88B |
| M&G Plc | $3.8M | $17.18 | −$53K | −$48K | -0.8% | $18.83B |
| Amundi | $3.5M | $17.15 | +$133K | +$1.1M | -0.2% | $366.88B |
| RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC | $2.0M | $13.83 | −$42K | −$47K | +1.2% | $63.91B |
| BNP PARIBAS FINANCIAL MARKETS | $1.6M | $14.20 | +$1.1M | +$1.3M | -0.2% | $149.31B |
| Crossmark Global Holdings, Inc. | $1.3M | $15.85 | +$486K | +$906K | +0.3% | $6.77B |
| JANE STREET GROUP, LLCMM | $1.1M | $14.62 | −$471K | −$2.2M | -0.1% | $92.10B |
| Tidal Investments LLC | $1.0M | $14.96 | +$1.0M | +$1.0M | -0.2% | $32.04B |
| DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LPPassive | $837K | $14.07 | +$0 | +$837K | -0.4% | $480.92B |
| XY Capital Ltd | $724K | $14.77 | −$138K | −$969K | -0.8% | $91.3M |
| UBS Group AG | $670K | $15.39 | −$239K | −$2.6M | -0.3% | $562.11B |
| CITADEL ADVISORS LLC | $456K | $14.31 | +$71K | +$380K | -0.4% | $138.22B |
| MILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC | $419K | $13.04 | −$144K | −$1.2M | -0.5% | $127.40B |
| Janney Montgomery Scott LLC | $365K | $14.96 | +$365K | +$365K | -0.2% | $40.39B |
| GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLCPassive | $327K | $13.77 | +$0 | +$1K | +2.3% | $1.61T |
| Vanguard Personalized Indexing Management, LLCPassive | $306K | $14.52 | +$53K | +$117K | -0.3% | $10.19B |
| Vident Advisory, LLC | $265K | $16.85 | +$108K | −$30K | -2.3% | $11.74B |
Trading behavior
▸ Compare to holder-profile behavior (across all their stocks)
Biggest decreases this quarter
New buyers this quarter
Top-5 holders · 74.1%
Top Holders Over Time
5-year share-count history (top 10 holders by peak, incl. exited) + price
Analyst Coverage
| Quarter | Revenue | EBITDA | Net Inc | EPS | EPS Range | # Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 Q1 | 308M | -100M | -91M | $-0.52 | $-0.52 – $-0.52 | 1 |
| 2027 Q2 | 318M | -103M | -96M | $-0.55 | $-0.55 – $-0.55 | 1 |
| 2027 Q3 | 319M | -103M | -68M | $-0.39 | $-0.39 – $-0.39 | 1 |
| 2027 Q4 | 319M | -103M | 7M | $0.04 | $0.04 – $0.04 | 1 |
| 2028 Q1 | 330M | -107M | 254M | $1.46 | $1.46 – $1.46 | 1 |
| 2028 Q2 | 291M | -94M | 436M | $2.50 | $2.50 – $2.50 | 1 |
| 2028 Q3 | 309M | -100M | 18M | $0.10 | $0.10 – $0.10 | 1 |
| 2028 Q4 | 338M | -109M | -3M | $-0.01 | $-0.01 – $-0.01 | 1 |
| 2029 Q1 | 462M | -150M | 73M | $0.42 | $0.42 – $0.42 | 1 |
| 2029 Q2 | 462M | -150M | 24M | $0.14 | $0.14 – $0.14 | 1 |
Corporate
Order Flow (FINRA, ~3w lag)
Revenue Breakdown
Revenue Segments
| Collaboration Research And Development | $51.7M | NEW |
| Other Collaboration Licensing Revenue | $28.8M | NEW |
| Commercialization Services | $23.3M | NEW |
| Other Collaboration Royalties Revenue | $17.5M | NEW |
| Research And Development Services | $0.2M | NEW |
Filing Risk Analysis
Filing Risk Scores
HUTCHMED: One-Time Divestment Gain Masks Deteriorating Core Oncology Revenue
Counter-Thesis
Counter-Thesis & Recent News
In March 2026, HUTCHMED reported a massive earnings miss for the 2025 fiscal year, posting $0.01 EPS against analyst expectations of $2.50—a staggering $2.49 deficit. Revenue of $135.42M also fell short of the $290.50M consensus. Simultaneously, the company announced a voluntary withdrawal and product recall of TAZVERIK (tazemetostat) in China, Hong Kong, and Macau. This followed safety data from the SYMPHONY-1 trial indicating risks of secondary hematologic malignancies, leading to the discontinuation of all active tazemetostat clinical trials (March 2026).
The core bear case centers on a structural decline in profitability and deteriorating domestic market share. Earnings are forecast to decline at a rate of 51.5% per year over the next three years. Despite growth in global royalties through Takeda, the company’s internal China operations are struggling: ELUNATE sales in China fell from $115M in 2024 to $100.1M in 2025, a sign that competition is outstripping market growth. The company is increasingly reliant on lumpy, unpredictable milestone payments from partners like AstraZeneca and Takeda to mask underlying operational losses.
The $2.49 EPS miss suggests either a massive failure in internal guidance or a sudden evaporation of expected milestone income. The withdrawal of TAZVERIK due to safety risks raises questions about the long-term viability of other licensed-in assets. Furthermore, the company reported that the NDA review for sovleplenib in China was delayed due to NMPA stipulations for a 'lower impurity limit,' requiring further manufacturing validation and pushing potential revenue into late 2026.
HUTCHMED faces an 'intensifying competitive landscape' in its primary market. Its lead drug, ORPATHYS (savolitinib), saw revenue drop to $18.6M from $24.5M year-over-year due to the launch of multiple competing MET-inhibitors in China. In the colorectal cancer (CRC) space, although global sales are rising via Takeda, the domestic China market for ELUNATE is being squeezed by aggressive National Reimbursement Drug List (NRDL) price cuts and local competitors offering similar non-chemotherapy alternatives.
Sentiment among oncologists in China is likely to be negatively impacted by the TAZVERIK recall, which may lead to increased caution regarding HUTCHMED’s broader pipeline. Additionally, the broader 'Anti-Corruption' campaign in Chinese healthcare and the 'Volume-Based Procurement' (VoBP) schemes continue to pressure pharmaceutical sales reps and hospital procurement, potentially leading to lower prescription volumes for premium-priced innovative drugs.