Stocks/HCI

HCI

HCI Group, Inc.
Financial Services·Insurance - Property & Casualty
$154.07
$2.0B market cap
Claude Rating
5/10HOLD
Revenue
$927.5M
Free Cash Flow
$432.9M
Rev Growth
+11.9%
FCF Margin
46.7%
P/FCF
4.5x
EV/FCF
2.4x
Fwd EV/EBITDA
2.2x
Fair Value
$138.00
Upside
-10.4%

HCI Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the property and casualty insurance, reinsurance, real estate, and information technology businesses in Florida. It provides residential insurance products, such as homeowners, fire, flood, and wind-only insurance to homeowners, condominium owners, and tenants for properties, as well as offers reinsurance programs. The company also owns and operates waterfront properties and retail shopping centers, and an office building, as well as co

2-Year Price History

$157.79+68.1%
$100$120$140$160$180$200volMay 24Sep 24Jan 25May 25Sep 25Jan 26May 26

Quarterly Financials & Projections

Quarterly Waterfall ($ M)
PeriodRevEBITDAOpInNIOCFFCFCapExCashDebtSharesROICIntCovEV/EBITDA
Est2028-Q1250.0100.0--62.5--80.0-2.51,611----------
Est2027-Q4265.0111.3--68.9--92.8-2.71,531----------
Est2027-Q3245.078.4--44.1--24.5-2.01,439----------
Est2027-Q2255.0117.3--74.0--76.5-2.61,414----------
Est2027-Q1245.0107.8--68.6--93.1-2.51,338----------
Est2026-Q4260.0124.8--78.0--104.0-2.61,245----------
Est2026-Q3240.091.2--52.8--36.0-1.91,141----------
Est2026-Q2248.0129.0--81.8--86.8-2.51,105----------
Act2026-Q1242.9118.6115.473.4149.0148.7-0.31,01867.712.936.3%128.4x1.8x
Act2025-Q4246.2147.4144.097.7110.8113.3-3.11,80731.912.949.8%146.0x0.8x
Act2025-Q3216.493.990.665.526.725.9-0.81,18572.812.938.9%92.2x1.8x
Act2025-Q2222.0102.794.466.2145.0145.0-0.51,30516.712.947.9%27.4x1.6x
Act2025-Q1217.1105.7100.369.7162.0160.3-1.71,266186.512.756.4%31.3x0.3x
Act2024-Q4161.411.35.92.674.773.6-1.11,054186.412.73.6%3.5x1.1x
Act2024-Q3175.219.714.15.7104.1103.2-1.0957.8232.310.57.3%5.8x0.8x
Act2024-Q2206.478.476.054.1-26.9-28.0-1.1675.3234.212.744.6%22.7x2.9x
Act2024-Q1206.481.677.447.6182.2181.2-1.0935.7286.712.644.1%25.9x1.1x
Act2023-Q4162.758.954.238.1153.4152.1-1.3770.5209.911.544.1%20.9x--
Act2023-Q3131.524.920.113.271.467.2-4.2742.7209.811.025.4%8.8x--
Act2023-Q2127.324.920.312.4-93.2-94.5-1.3737.0209.510.925.3%9.3x--
Act2023-Q1128.528.223.115.399.197.6-1.5826.8197.610.933.1%10.1x--
Act2022-Q4115.97.82.71.518.317.3-0.9500.2212.48.45.0%2.9x--
Act2022-Q3125.4-58.6-63.6-51.0-39.9-41.1-1.2716.3213.28.4-96.6%-20.8x--
Act2022-Q2125.4-8.1-11.6-10.0-35.7-38.1-2.4759.1213.59.0-14.6%-5.3x--
Act2022-Q1125.36.14.00.957.451.7-5.7719.763.09.86.7%10.2x--

AI Analysis

LLM Evaluations

Claude5/10HOLDFV: $138.00

HCI Group is a well-managed Florida P&C insurer that has delivered extraordinary results during a period of benign weather, legislative tailwinds, and abundant Citizens depopulation opportunities. The Exzeo IPO crystallized significant hidden value. However, at ~$154/share and ~$2B market cap, the stock is pricing in the continuation of near-perfect conditions. The core insurance business faces mounting competitive pressure from 17 new Florida entrants and rate cuts from incumbents, while the Citizens takeout pipeline is shrinking. Loss ratios at 17-20% are historically anomalous and will revert. The stock trades at a premium to pro-forma book value, and the single-state catastrophe concentration creates asymmetric downside. At current prices, the risk/reward is roughly balanced - this is a hold, not a buy.

Catalyst A major hurricane making landfall in HCI's coverage area would be the primary downside catalyst. Upside catalysts include successful expansion into California or other states, Exzeo share price appreciation flowing through to HCI's book value, or another benign hurricane season allowing continued earnings outperformance.
Risk Geographic concentration in Florida creates catastrophic binary risk - a single major hurricane could generate losses exceeding $500M, wiping out multiple years of earnings and potentially triggering reinsurer counterparty failures given 74.6% reinsurance recoverable concentration in just four entities.
Trend
STABLE
Mgmt
8/10
Quarter
8/10
Exp. Move
-2.0%

Latest Earnings Call

Transcript Summary

HCI Group reported a record-breaking Q1 2026, characterized by a pretax income of $115 million and a diluted EPS of $5.45. The company demonstrated strong underwriting discipline with a combined ratio of 57%, outperforming its target of 60%. Significant growth was seen in stockholder equity, which reached $1 billion, and book value, which sits at $85 per share (or $145 on a pro-forma basis including Exzeo). Management is aggressively returning capital to shareholders, having repurchased 239,000 shares under a new $80 million authorization. Operationally, the company expanded its reinsurance capacity by licensing Fortex Reinsurance in the Cayman Islands. All four insurance subsidiaries are now profitable from inception. CEO Paresh Patel highlighted that while the company is maintaining stability in its core Florida market, it is actively developing 2-3 new high-potential assets in the insurance value chain to replicate the success of Exzeo. Despite the upcoming hurricane season, management remains bullish, citing a softening reinsurance market and a fortress balance sheet that allows for quick execution on future M&A opportunities or market dislocations.

Valuation & Metrics

Market Stats

Price$154.07
Market Cap$2.0B
Enterprise Value$1.0B
P/S Ratio2.1x
P/FCF4.5x
EV/FCF2.4x
FCF Margin (TTM)46.7%
FCF Yield22.0%
Dividend Yield (TTM)--
Annual Dilution1.6%
CurrencyUSD

TTM Financial Snapshot

Revenue$927.5M
Net Income$302.7M
Free Cash Flow$432.9M

Revenue Growth (YoY)+11.9%
EBITDA Margin49.9%
Net Margin32.6%
FCF Margin46.7%
CapEx % of Revenue0.5%
SBC % of Revenue0.9%
ROIC43.2%
WC Change % Rev54.6%
Interest Coverage69.1x

DCF Fair Value Estimate

$257.47
+67.1% upside
Fair Enterprise Value$2.4B
− Net Debt$-950M
= Fair Equity$3.3B
Revenue Growth2.2% → 3.0%
FCF Margin46.7% → 20.0%
Discount Rate15.0%
Terminal EV/FCF10.0x

Forward Outlook & Risk

Short Interest

Short % of Float2.9%
Short Shares0.3M
Days to Cover1.4
Change (vs Prior)+10.3%
Short % Float History
2.90%-8.00pp
2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%04-3007-1509-1511-1401-1504-30

Options

Call IV (ATM)33%
Put IV (ATM)32%
ATM Spread1.8%
Call $OI (near money)$189K
Put $OI (near money)$135K
ATM ExpiryJuly 17, 2026 (56D)
ATM Strike$160.0
Major Expirations3
Near-money chain · July 17, 2026
StrikeCall Bid/AskCall OIPut Bid/AskPut OI
$140.00$19.00/$22.500$0.15/$3.600
$145.00$15.30/$18.300$2.35/$3.501
$150.00$11.90/$14.500$3.20/$5.400
$155.00$8.80/$11.300$4.80/$7.400
$160.00$6.20/$9.000$7.00/$9.800
$165.00$3.50/$7.700$9.50/$13.500
$170.00$2.90/$4.801$12.80/$16.800
$175.00$0.65/$4.700$16.60/$20.800
Snapshot: 2026-05-22

Forward Projections & Estimates

NTM Revenue Growth+7.1%
Forward FCF Margin32.2%
Forward EBITDA Margin45.6%
Forward P/FCF6.2x
Forward EV/FCF3.2x
Forward Int. Coverage114.0x
Model Risk Score7/10
Bankruptcy Odds5%
Est. Borrow Rate7.0%
Terminal EV/FCF10.0x
LT Growth3.0%
LT FCF Margin20.0%

Employees

Headcount552
Revenue / Employee$1,680,214
Gross Profit / Employee$1,118,005
2022: 578 → 2023: 547 → 2024: 552 → 2025: 594 (1% CAGR)

Institutional Ownership

Headline & net flow

NET BUYING

In Q1 2026 so far (quarter still filing), institutions are net buyers — bought 9.7% of float, sold 7.3%. 1 filer moved >1% of shares (0 buying, 1 selling).

Net flow · Q1 2026still filing
+2.4% of float (net)
Bought 9.7% · Sold 7.3%
280 filers reported (last quarter: 288)

Ownership composition

Active
43.9%(-5.2% YoY)
257 filers
hedge / family / endowment
Retail funds
Fidelity, Schwab, 401(k)
Passive
28.3%(+6.3% YoY)
11 filers
Vanguard, iShares, SPDR
Market makers
1.3%(+1.2% YoY)
6 filers
Citadel, Susquehanna
Insiders
0.3%
Form 4 — latest per insider
0%25%50%75%100%2022-062023-032023-122024-092025-062026-03
ActiveRetail fundsPassiveMarket makersRetail direct

Top holders

Fund$ valueCost basisΔ QoQΔ YoYα lifeFund AUM
BlackRock, Inc.Passive$254M$119.89−$22.0M+$25.2M-0.2%$5.69T
AMERICAN CENTURY COMPANIES INC$96.7M$142.36+$2.9M+$26.7M+0.3%$193.48B
Hood River Capital Management LLC$96.4M$68.98−$19.2M−$49.1M-1.1%$9.97B
Khrom Capital Management LLC$89.7M$101.67+$3.1M−$33.4M-2.8%$1.09B
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLCPassive$75.3M$154.61+$75.3M+$75.3M$46.99B
STATE STREET CORPPassive$61.6M$124.13+$2.1M+$14.3M-0.2%$2.89T
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LPPassive$54.9M$142.32+$5.6M+$8.0M-0.4%$480.92B
Freestone Grove Partners LP$53.1M$165.54+$10.6M+$26.7M+1.2%$13.77B
VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLCPassive$51.7M$154.61+$51.7M+$51.7M$27.29B
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLCPassive$46.6M$123.54+$4.4M+$11.5M+2.3%$1.61T
Qube Research & Technologies Ltd$37.4M$126.02+$12.9M+$15.0M+0.3%$70.36B
MORGAN STANLEY$31.2M$98.17+$4.0M+$3.1M-0.3%$1.65T
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC$20.1M$61.25−$3.4M−$2.5M-0.2%$760.93B
JANE STREET GROUP, LLCMM$18.3M$135.72+$16.9M+$17.8M-0.1%$92.10B
ARROWSTREET CAPITAL, LIMITED PARTNERSHIP$18.1M$153.93+$17.5M+$15.8M+0.1%$184.72B
NORTHERN TRUST CORPPassive$16.9M$125.08+$286K+$2.8M-0.2%$755.34B
Allspring Global Investments Holdings, LLC$16.7M$139.17−$1.7M+$3.6M-0.6%$59.61B
CHARLES SCHWAB INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC$15.5M$122.89−$19K+$3.6M+1.0%$645.81B
TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP$15.4M$105.82+$9.1M+$1.8M-0.7%$117.03B
JACOBS LEVY EQUITY MANAGEMENT, INC$15.3M$146.57−$4.1M+$14.8M+0.4%$23.79B
Cost basis is a volume-weighted estimate from accumulation periods within our 13F history; holders who built their position before our window started will show a stale basis. % above the cost basis is the unrealized gain at the current price.

Trading behavior

Smart-money alpha (lifetime, %/qtr)NEUTRAL
Holders
-0.28%
avg per quarter
Holders (ex-self)
-0.31%
excl. this stock
Buyers (this Q)
-0.18%
77 buyers · $0.23B in
Sellers (this Q)
-0.09%
96 sellers · $0.38B out
alpha coverage: 91% of $ has a lifetime-alpha record
Holder behavior on this stocksource: stock
On big dips (−10%+)
-13.6%
how holders react when this stock falls
On quiet Qs
-5.1%
−10% to +10% baseline
On rallies (+10%+)
-22.2%
how they react when this stock rises
Holders' portfolio flow this Q
+2.9%
inflows — adds are organic
Sellers' portfolio flow this Q
-1.2%
Sellers shed AUM broadly — partly forced.
▸ Compare to holder-profile behavior (across all their stocks)
Holder dip (any stock)
-3.3%
Holder mid (any stock)
-4.1%
Holder rally (any stock)
-6.8%

Top Holders Over Time

5-year share-count history (top 10 holders by peak, incl. exited) + price

0915K1.8M2.7M3.7M$37$75$114$153$1912021-062022-062023-062024-062025-062026-03
hover the chart for per-quarter detailprice (right axis)
Hood River Capital Management LLC624KKhrom Capital Management LLC580KAMERICAN CENTURY COMPANIES INC625KDRIEHAUS CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLCWELLINGTON MANAGEMENT GROUP LLPPark West Asset Management LLCFreestone Grove Partners LP343KWASATCH ADVISORS INCQube Research & Technologies Ltd242KMORGAN STANLEY202K

Corporate

Executive Compensation (2023-2025)

Direct Pay$66.8M
Incentive & Other$8.2M
Total Compensation$75.0M
% of Revenue3.2%

Order Flow (FINRA, ~3w lag)

15.4%retail+0.4pp
31.4%dark-0.7pp
week of 2026-04-13
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%24-1125-0225-0525-0825-1126-0226-04retail (non-ATS)dark (ATS)
Off-exchange volume from FINRA. Retail = non-ATS (wholesaler PFOF + broker internalization). Dark = ATS (dark-pool crossing networks, institutional). Lit-exchange = remainder.

Revenue Breakdown

Revenue Segments

By Product (2026-Q1)
Real Estate Operations$4.2M+48%

Filing Risk Analysis

Filing Risk Scores

HCI Group, Inc.: Complex Reciprocal Structures and Intercompany Asymmetry Mask Earnings Volatility

Overall Risk
4/10
Fraud
3/10
Dilution
4/10
Insolvency
2/10
Earnings Overstated
5/10
Hidden Liabilities
6/10
Legal
3/10
Audit Warnings
2/10
Hidden Upside
7/10
Contextually Acceptable
7/10

Counter-Thesis

Counter-Thesis & Recent News

📰 Recent News

HCI reported a sequential pullback in Q1 2026 earnings, with net income falling to $85 million from $108 million in Q4 2025. Additionally, Oppenheimer downgraded the stock to a 'Hold' rating in late 2025, signaling a shift in institutional sentiment. While the company authorized an $80 million share buyback, the market is increasingly focused on the sustainability of margins as Florida's insurance landscape stabilizes and competition intensifies (Investing.com, MarketScreener).

🐻 Bear Case

The core bear case centers on margin compression and growth exhaustion. HCI's recent outsized profits were driven by a 'perfect storm' of mild weather and a vacuum of competition in Florida. However, 17 new insurance carriers have entered the Florida market in the last 18 months, and legacy giants like State Farm are now filing for 8–11% rate reductions. This 'rate war' is expected to force HCI to lower premiums or lose market share. Furthermore, the company's reliance on 'takeouts' from Citizens Property Insurance—the primary driver of recent growth—is hitting a ceiling as the state's insurer of last resort successfully offloads its riskiest policies (Seeking Alpha, Investing.com).

🚩 Red Flags

Specific subsidiaries are showing early signs of distress; for instance, HCI’s condo-focused insurer (CORE) reported sharp drops in gross premiums earned for two consecutive quarters as of May 2026. Another major red flag is the stock's valuation, which many analysts now flag as overvalued, with fair value estimates sitting around $138—nearly 15% below recent trading prices. High geographic concentration remains a systemic risk, as any uptick in catastrophe frequency toward historical norms would wipe out the recent earnings gains seen during the 'benign' 2025 season (Simply Wall St, Insurance Journal).

⚔️ Competitive Threats

The Florida market is becoming hyper-competitive. Beyond the 17 new entrants, major carriers including State Farm, Florida Peninsula, and Patriot Select have filed for double-digit rate cuts. This pricing pressure, combined with Citizens Property Insurance's 76% decline in policy count, means the cheap growth once available through government takeouts is vanishing. HCI's technology subsidiary, Exzeo, also faces increasing competition from other InsurTech firms that are scaling more aggressively outside the Florida market (Investing.com, Matrix BCG).

💬 Customer Sentiment

Customer sentiment is marred by significant friction in claims processing. Recent BBB filings and Florida Department of Financial Services records show a surge in complaints against subsidiaries TypTap and Homeowners Choice. Policyholders frequently cite 'purposeful delays,' poor communication from adjusters, and the necessity of hiring public adjusters or attorneys to receive contractually obligated payouts. Sentiment is particularly negative regarding the perceived value of high premiums relative to the 'minimal' support provided during the claims investigation phase (BBB.org, fldfs.com).

Full Earnings Call Transcript

Full Earnings Call Transcript — Q1 • 2026-05-06

Operator: Good afternoon, and welcome to HCI Group's First Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. My name is Tom, and I will be your conference operator. [Operator Instructions] Before we begin today's call, I would like to remind everyone that this conference call is being recorded and will be available for replay through June 6, 2026, starting later today. The call is also being broadcast live via webcast and available via webcast replay until May 6, 2027, on the Investor Information section of HCI Group's website at www.hcigroup.com. I would now like to turn the call over to Nat Otis, HCI Investor Relations. Nat, please proceed.
Nathaniel Otis: Thank you, and good afternoon. Welcome to HCI Group's First Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. To access today's webcast, please visit the Investor Information section of our corporate website at www.hcigroup.com. Before we begin, I'd like to take the opportunity to remind our listeners that today's presentation and responses to questions may contain forward-looking statements made pursuant to the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Words such as anticipate, estimate, expect, intend, plan and project and other similar words and expressions are intended to signify forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future results and conditions, but rather are subject to various risks and uncertainties. Some of these risks and uncertainties are identified in the company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Should any risks or uncertainties develop into actual events, these developments could have materially adverse effects on the company's business, financial condition and results of operations. HCI Group disclaims all the obligations to update any forward-looking statements. Now with that, I'll turn the call over to Mark Harmsworth, Chief Financial Officer.
Mark Harmsworth: Thanks, Nat. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for taking the time to join us on our call today. This was another fantastic quarter. Pretax income grew by 15% from the same quarter last year to $115 million and diluted earnings per share were $5.45. This was the best first quarter ever for us as we continue to grow the top line, the bottom line and return on equity. Gross premiums earned grew by just over 8%, reflecting the full impact of the assumptions we completed in 2025. Total revenue grew by just over 12% as investment income and other income grew significantly. The increase in other income reflects revenue that Exzeo and Griston are generating, non-HCI business. The loss ratio this quarter was 20%, about the same as the first quarter last year, reflecting continued low claims and litigation frequency. We've been talking about the combined ratio for a while now. With where the business is, we are targeting a combined ratio of 60%, plus or minus 5%. For the full year 2025, the combined ratio was about 57%, and it was 57% again this quarter, illustrating the quality of our underwriting and our operating efficiencies. Let's turn to the balance sheet for a minute. With growing earnings and prudent capital management, the balance sheet continues to strengthen. Stockholder equity has doubled over just the last year to over $1 billion. We have just under $2 billion of cash and fixed-term securities. Book value per share is now almost $85 and the debt-to-cap ratio is only 6%. In addition to the strong consolidated balance sheet, the underwriters are stronger than ever. As I mentioned earlier, gross premiums are up by 8% or so, but total surplus has grown by 22% over the last year to well over $0.5 billion. The gross leverage ratio is now less than 2.5, leaving plenty of room for additional growth without the need for surplus -- for new capital, sorry, and gives us additional security if there's a storm. We also have significant surplus in Claddaugh, which gives us considerable flexibility in our upcoming reinsurance program. As you know, we announced a buyback plan in March, under which we were authorized to purchase up to $80 million of stock, and we have been actively buying back shares under that plan. As of the end of March, we had used $17.5 million of the authorization, buying back approximately 110,000 shares. Since the end of the first quarter, we have continued buying back shares. And at the end of April, we were up to a cumulative total of 239,000 shares purchased and have used about $37.5 million of the $80 million. In terms of holding company liquidity, we have just under $200 million of liquidity at the HCI level. This does not include the 75 million shares we own of Exzeo, which now trade publicly. Speaking of Exzeo, while our book value per share of almost $85 is impressive, I should mention that this does not include any unrealized gains on our ownership of Exzeo. If the fair value of Exzeo and our real estate portfolio were added, pro forma book value per share would be almost $145. This means that we are trading only about 10% above book value while generating record earnings and 35% after-tax return on equity. Wrapping up on the quarter, this has been another fantastic one for the company. 2025 was a record year for HCI and the first quarter of this year was even better. Revenue is growing, margins are expanding. We are generating record cash flows, have minimal debt and are generating superior returns on capital. And with that, I'll hand it over to Karin.
Karin Coleman: Thank you, Mark. We are very pleased with our start to 2026. We averaged more than $5.60 per share over the past 5 quarters and entered the second quarter with -- and we entered the second quarter with $1.3 billion in premiums in force spread across 4 carriers. It is important to point out that over half of our Citizens takeouts in 2025 were done by Tailrow, our second reciprocal exchange. Tailrow is now well positioned going forward with over $120 million of in-force premiums. All 4 of our carriers are now profitable inception to date, the last 2 having reached that milestone within a 12- to 15-month time span from inception. I bring this up to underscore our company philosophy. When we make strategic decisions, we take actions with purpose and precision. Execution is critical in our line of work. In other words, starting an insurance carrier is not that challenging. Establishing a carrier that is profitable and in a relatively short period of time is much more difficult and takes experience, skill as well as some finesse. With that in mind, I want to share that in the first quarter, we licensed a new reinsurance company, Fortex Reinsurance, domiciled in the Cayman Islands as a Class B insurer, making it our second reinsurance company and giving us even more flexibility to selectively retain risk and reduce the cost of third-party reinsurance. You may recall that our other reinsurer, Claddaugh is domiciled in Bermuda and has been very advantageous in our reinsurance placements. Speaking of reinsurance, HCI is in the final phase of the June 1 reinsurance placements. We won't announce any specific details until everything is finalized since current market conditions are continuing to improve. As Mark noted, we announced the $80 million share repurchase authorization on March 3 and immediately entered the market on the 4. We're not shy about our view that shares of HCI offer great value at the current price. Consistently high return on equity, strong earnings generation, a track record of value creation and our technology platform, Exzeo, are all compelling reasons for this confidence. In addition to earnings generation and value creation, HCI offers longer-term optionality as well. Historically, we have taken advantage of market dislocation, acting quickly to deploy capital when opportunities present themselves. There will be an inflection point for our industry. In the meantime, we'll continue to serve our policyholders well, deliver strong operating results, return value to shareholders and look for additional ways to drive long-term growth in a measurable way. With that, let me turn it over to Paresh Patel for some final thoughts.
Paresh Patel: Thanks, Karin. Mark and Karin just spent a few minutes talking about where the company is at this time. Let me recap. Premiums are growing. Reinsurance is moving in the right direction. The investment portfolio is making money. The loss ratio is stable. We are generating record earnings and the balance sheet is strong and getting stronger. This is allowing us to do 2 things at the same time. Buy back a portion of the company every month and still strengthen the balance sheet. And why are we doing this? Because we want to invest in a company at a terrific valuation, and this is a company that we know everything about. Simply put, we are investing in ourselves. At the current rate, we are buying back about 2% of the company every quarter. This means that every shareholder on this call will effectively own 2% more of the company at the end of every quarter than they did at the start. And we are doing this with only a portion of our earnings. With the rest of the earnings, we are further strengthening our balance sheet. This is planning for a better tomorrow because eventually an inflection point or an opportunity will come along. And when it does, we will have a very robust balance sheet that will allow us to execute quickly and with great ease. But what do we do until that opportunity or inflection point comes along? Mark outlined the value creation that Exzeo represents to the HCI shareholders. We grew Exzeo from about an idea -- from just an idea to a $1.5 billion current valuation. And what we're doing is we're working on the next thing. We are looking at 2 or 3 things that have the potential to be the next Exzeo-like asset. We have the resources to nurture these things to their full potential. Outcomes are not always certain, but given our track record, I am very excited about the possibilities. So that is what we are working on while we are waiting for the inflection point. And at the same time, we are acquiring valuable HCI shares. In summary, every day we come to work knowing our mission if things stay the same. We also know our mission and what we're going to do if conditions change. And finally, we are planting seeds for the long-term future. With that, I will turn it over for questions.
Operator: [Operator Instructions] And our first question will come from Matt Carletti from Citizens Capital.
Matthew Carletti: Either Paresh or Karin, I guess, maybe to start with a pretty simple one, which is just can you just update us on kind of how you see kind of the primary environment in Florida, not the reinsurance environment, but just kind of the primary environment for HCI and all its carriers?
Karin Coleman: Sure. For HCI, we see stability in our premiums as it relates to previous quarters, and we anticipate that stability will remain there going forward.
Matthew Carletti: Okay. Great. And then, Karin, you hit on starting a new reinsurer, which sounds like it's a captive kind of alongside kind of a new Claddaugh. I guess other than the domicile, why -- can you give us a little more color on why start a new reinsurer as opposed to just leveraging Claddaugh more?
Karin Coleman: Sure. So we have 4 carriers that we have, and we find that, that optionality really gives us an advantage through different market conditions. And so we feel that we have an opportunity to do something similar within the reinsurance space as well and maybe have some additional flexibility within those reinsurance carriers.
Matthew Carletti: Okay. Great. And then one last one, if I could, Paresh, you -- at the end of your comments there you kind of touched on looking at 2 or 3 possibly Exzeo-like opportunities. Can you give us any more color? In particular, I'm just curious, are they insurance related? Or obviously, HCI does more than just insurance, you've got real estate, you've got your hands in a few things. How should we think about it at a kind of 30,000-foot level?
Paresh Patel: Yes. Matt, we are leaving these conversations slightly vague because ideas come and go, but the things we're looking at are insurance related, but I don't mean like homeowners insurance in Florida. It's other lines of insurance and/or also other aspects of the insurance value chain. So it's quite a broad net we are casting because growth isn't all about just doing more of the same. It's also being able to do new things. So we are thinking about it in terms of what's going to be needed, what's going to be valuable a decade from now, yes.
Operator: Your next question is coming from Mark Hughes from Truist.
Mark Hughes: Mark, what was your combined ratio target? Someone sneezed just as you're giving the target. At least, [indiscernible] sound like reminding...
Mark Harmsworth: Yes, 60%, plus or minus 5%. And we were 57% in Q1, which was pretty much the same as it was in full year 2025.
Mark Hughes: And Karin, you talked about stable for HCI for, I think, premiums. Is that the entire stable of companies, the TypTap Homeowners Choice, et cetera? Or are you specifically referring to Homeowners Choice...?
Karin Coleman: I'm talking about the whole enterprise, yes.
Mark Hughes: Okay. And then with all that capital, are there opportunities these days for book rolls or M&A or is the industry just too profitable, nobody wants to transact when they're making decent profits?
Paresh Patel: Mark, I would characterize it in the comments Karin made about the inflection points. There will be an inflection point. In terms of those kinds of things, we are now coming up on hurricane season. Would you want to expand through an acquisition coming into that? This is assuming it was Florida-based kind of thing. But it's those kinds of items that also sort of play out here. There will be a time, there will be an opportunity, right? But you have to time it at the right moment. And let me answer it in a different way. We would like to do M&A the day after the storm as opposed to do an M&A the day before the storm. One creates a lot more headaches than the other one does, yes.
Mark Hughes: Yes. What is your posture around the reinsurance renewals? It sounds like you would be perhaps retaining more risk with the capital in Claddaugh and the Fortex. Is that a fair statement?
Paresh Patel: Yes. I think you'll see the nuances of all of this stuff when the reinsurance is placed.
Karin Coleman: Yes. We know the reinsurance market continues to softening. And so I don't know that we want to speculate on the final outcome at this point. But once we have that final -- we have the June 1 program finalized, we'll issue a press release most likely in a few weeks.
Mark Hughes: Okay. But I think you said it continues to soften. It sounds like you're saying here in recent weeks.
Karin Coleman: Yes. yes, that's why we're kind of in this position now.
Mark Hughes: Yes. I know Exzeo is going to have its own call. But as they execute, Mark, what does it do to the P&L, just the geography of the P&L, if they're going to be growing their business, what line items are going to be most affected here?
Mark Harmsworth: Well, the other income, a lot of their revenue will flow through -- on a consolidated basis will flow through that other income line. That's why I kind of highlighted that for this quarter. And of course, earnings and still 80%, 85% of that is flowing through to earnings per share. So -- but in terms of revenue as they grow, that other income line is the one that will really -- that's the one that you'll see go up. And it I think tripled quarter-over-quarter, and that's why I kind of pointed that out in my prepared remarks.
Mark Hughes: Okay. And so this is kind of the starting point, and it will presumably should go up from here as they execute.
Mark Harmsworth: Yes.
Operator: [Operator Instructions] our next question is coming from Michael Phillips from Oppenheimer.
Michael Phillips: Mark, I wanted to make sure I understand when you talk about the target combined ratio. The 57% this quarter, like you said, was kind of what you did in 2025. So when you say target, first off, you're referring to an accident year ex cat, correct?
Mark Harmsworth: Yes.
Michael Phillips: Okay. And also when you say target, are you thinking about kind of through a cycle longer term? Or are you referring to, hey, that's this year's target, maybe the next 18-month target? Or what kind of time frame do you mean when you say that?
Mark Harmsworth: Yes. I mean it's where we are now. I don't expect it to change significantly. I mean the thing that can move it a little bit is weather, obviously, right? But I think for us right now, that's a pretty good target for the next -- certainly for this year.
Michael Phillips: Okay. Okay. Good. That's what I meant. Just to be clear on my question. So no concerns on maybe pressure on that given where the rate environment is. There's lots of good things happening in Florida, but the rate environment is softening and so there's -- you don't foresee any pressure on that because of the rate environment?
Mark Harmsworth: Well, I think Karin talked about that. If you look at our average premium per policy at the end of Q1, you compare it to a year ago, it's pretty much flat. And as Karin -- across the book and as Karin suggested, we don't expect that to change considerably. So yes, I mean -- and obviously, we've taken that into account when we're talking about an estimated combined ratio. The big mover is the loss ratio.
Michael Phillips: Yes. Cool. And then maybe just last one, just changing gears. One of your new initiatives was the E&S company, the surplus lines company. Can you talk about that and kind of where you see that going in the near term? I think that just started pretty recently last quarter or so. So just any thoughts on where that is.
Paresh Patel: It continues making progress, right? One of the things we talked about using that for is maybe California or things of that nature. And California is a lovely place. Things continue to evolve over there. I think we just saw some headline the other day where 60 policyholders are suing their previous carriers for the losses in the California wildfires. All of these things sort of make you -- make sure that you do your homework and diligence before you step into that. So we're doing all those things, yes.
Michael Phillips: So is that 1 of the 2 or 3 things you refer to working on? Is that kind of in the past?
Paresh Patel: I don't think it is 1 of the 3 things we're talking about in the $1 billion category kind of thing. It's yet another something we're doing, just like Karin's new reinsurer of Fortex Re. It's just yet another something we're doing besides the $1 billion asset creation kind of things that we're talking about.
Operator: [Operator Instructions] And there are no questions in queue at this time. And this does conclude our question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the call back over to Paresh Patel, who has a few closing remarks.
Paresh Patel: Thank you. On behalf of the entire management team, I would like to thank our shareholders, employees, agents and most importantly, our policyholders for their continued support as we embark on the next phase of our growth. Thank you, and talk to you soon.
Operator: Thank you. This concludes today's call. You may now disconnect. Thank you once again for your participation. Have a wonderful day.