Stocks/GME

GME

GameStop Corp.
Consumer Cyclical·Specialty Retail
$21.18
$9.5B market cap
Claude Rating
3/10SELL
Revenue
$3.6B
Free Cash Flow
$597.3M
Rev Growth
-13.9%
FCF Margin
16.5%
P/FCF
15.9x
EV/FCF
8.1x
Fwd EV/EBITDA
24.4x
Fair Value
$14.00
Upside
-33.9%

GameStop Corp., a specialty retailer, provides games and entertainment products through its e-commerce properties and various stores in the United States, Canada, Australia, and Europe. The company sells new and pre-owned gaming platforms; accessories, such as controllers, gaming headsets, virtual reality products, and memory cards; new and pre-owned gaming software; and in-game digital currency, digital downloadable content, and full-game downloads. It also sells collectibles comprising license

2-Year Price History

$21.96-22.2%
$22$24$26$28$30$32volJun 24Oct 24Jan 25May 25Sep 25Jan 26May 26

Quarterly Financials & Projections

Quarterly Waterfall ($ M)
PeriodRevEBITDAOpInNIOCFFCFCapExCashDebtSharesROICIntCovEV/EBITDA
Est2027-Q3680.030.6--47.6--57.8-3.49,638----------
Est2027-Q2800.040.0--80.0--64.0-3.29,580----------
Est2027-Q1600.012.0--24.0--60.0-3.09,516----------
Est2026-Q41,05068.3--94.5--94.5-4.29,456----------
Est2026-Q3740.040.7--59.2--74.0-3.79,361----------
Est2026-Q2880.052.8--105.6--79.2-3.59,287----------
Est2026-Q1660.019.8--33.0--79.2-2.69,208----------
Est2025-Q41,15086.3--120.8--115.0-4.69,129----------
Act2025-Q41,104149.5144.9127.9193.6187.4-6.29,0144,362549.16.9%--19.8x
Act2025-Q3821.056.641.377.1111.3107.0-4.38,8304,392591.71.6%--32.8x
Act2025-Q2972.269.066.4168.6117.4113.3-4.18,6944,418546.52.9%--37.2x
Act2025-Q1732.430.3-10.844.8192.5189.6-2.96,3861,762497.9-0.8%--63.4x
Act2024-Q41,28386.979.8131.3162.3158.8-3.54,775410.7447.77.3%--416.9x
Act2024-Q3860.3-16.3-33.417.424.620.0-4.64,616463.5437.9-3.2%--387.0x
Act2024-Q2798.3-14.4-22.014.868.665.5-3.14,204533.5387.2-2.3%--197.9x
Act2024-Q1881.8-33.8-50.6-32.3-109.8-114.7-4.91,083588.7305.9-21.5%--84.8x
Act2023-Q41,79478.655.263.1-11.0-18.7-7.71,199602.8305.720.4%--169.7x
Act2023-Q31,078-3.4-14.7-3.119.111.1-8.01,210614.2305.3-6.2%--482.7x
Act2023-Q21,164-4.0-16.6-2.8-109.1-119.2-10.11,195635.2304.8-7.3%----
Act2023-Q11,237-44.7-58.4-50.5-102.7-111.8-9.11,310650.5304.5-25.3%----
Act2022-Q42,22660.646.248.2338.2326.6-11.61,391616.6304.517.8%----
Act2022-Q31,186-81.2-96.3-94.7177.3164.3-13.01,042574.5304.2-46.5%----
Act2022-Q21,136-90.0-107.8-108.7-103.4-123.9-20.5908.9602.4304.2-45.0%----
Act2022-Q11,378-136.6-153.7-157.9-303.9-314.7-10.81,035617.0303.6-56.5%-195.1x--
Historical Valuation

Multiples vs the company's own history — cheap or rich relative to itself? Historical fiscal years, then TTM, then forward projections (E). Forward rows hold today's price against projected earnings, so the multiple compresses if the company grows into it.

YearPriceRev GrEBITDA %EBITDAEV/EBITDAEV/FCFP/EP/S
202218.46-4.2%-247n/m132.8×n/m1.3×
202317.53-11.0%0.5%27154.8×n/m701.3×0.9×
202431.34-27.5%0.6%22234.2×40.5×73.2×2.5×
202520.08-5.0%8.4%30525.4×13.0×29.6×3.4×
TTM21.18-5.0%8.4%3050.0×0.0×0.0×0.0×
2026E21.18-8.3%0.1%20.0×0.0×0.0×0.0×

EBITDA in reporting-currency $M. Historical multiples use year-end market cap (split-adjusted price history); TTM & forward years use today's.

AI Analysis

LLM Evaluations

Claude3/10SELLFV: $14.00

GameStop is a secularly declining specialty retailer trading at a massive premium to intrinsic value, sustained by meme-stock sentiment and financial engineering rather than fundamental business strength. The core gaming retail business is losing 5-10% revenue annually as digital distribution cannibalizes physical software sales. Management has pivoted to becoming a quasi-investment fund — holding $8.8B in cash earning interest and $500M+ in Bitcoin — while issuing $3.75B in convertible debt that massively dilutes existing shareholders (35%+ annual dilution). The 'profitability' is largely an artifact of interest income on the cash hoard and aggressive cost-cutting, not business improvement. At ~$11B market cap for a business generating ~$3.8B in declining revenue with sub-7% EBITDA margins from operations, the stock trades at 3x sales — a massive premium for a shrinking retailer. The lack of earnings calls or guidance is a governance red flag. The warrant dividend at $32 strike and Ryan Cohen's share purchases provide near-term sentiment support, but the underlying business does not justify the valuation. This is a 'sell the rallies' story with limited fundamental support above $15.

Catalyst A sustained Bitcoin rally could temporarily inflate the balance sheet and sentiment; a new console cycle (PS6/next Xbox) could provide a temporary revenue boost in 2026-2027; warrant exercise could raise up to $1.9B in additional cash.
Risk Meme-stock dynamics and short squeeze potential can keep the stock elevated well above fundamental value for extended periods, making shorting extremely dangerous despite the overvaluation. The massive cash position also provides a floor that limits downside.
Trend
IMPROVING
Mgmt
4/10
Quarter
7/10
Exp. Move
+3.0%

Valuation & Metrics

Market Stats

Price$21.18
Market Cap$9.5B
Enterprise Value$4.9B
P/S Ratio2.6x
P/FCF15.9x
EV/FCF8.1x
FCF Margin (TTM)16.5%
FCF Yield6.3%
Dividend Yield (TTM)7.2%
Annual Dilution22.6%
CurrencyUSD

TTM Financial Snapshot

Revenue$3.6B
Net Income$418.4M
Free Cash Flow$597.3M

Revenue Growth (YoY)-13.9%
EBITDA Margin8.4%
Net Margin11.5%
FCF Margin16.5%
CapEx % of Revenue0.5%
SBC % of Revenue0.5%
ROIC2.7%
WC Change % Rev2.5%
Interest Coverage--

DCF Fair Value Estimate

$11.26
-46.8% upside
Fair Enterprise Value$1.5B
− Net Debt$-4.7B
= Fair Equity$6.2B
Revenue Growth-8.7% → 1.0%
FCF Margin16.5% → 6.0%
Discount Rate16.0%
Terminal EV/FCF6.0x

Forward Outlook & Risk

Short Interest

Short % of Float14.5%
Short Shares59.4M
Days to Cover8.5
Change (vs Prior)-4.1%
Short % Float History
14.50%+2.60pp
12.0%14.0%16.0%18.0%04-3007-1509-1511-1401-1504-30

Options

Call IV (ATM)48%
Put IV (ATM)49%
ATM Spread0.50%
Call $OI (near money)$40.7M
Put $OI (near money)$24.1M
ATM ExpiryJuly 17, 2026 (56D)
ATM Strike$22.0
Major Expirations6
Near-money chain · July 17, 2026
StrikeCall Bid/AskCall OIPut Bid/AskPut OI
$18.00$4.00/$4.70808$0.21/$0.36652
$19.00$3.10/$3.75654$0.30/$0.55765
$20.00$2.67/$2.904,055$0.66/$0.762,302
$21.00$2.07/$2.36539$1.03/$1.164,757
$22.00$1.65/$1.762,692$1.56/$1.701,761
$23.00$1.25/$1.404,019$2.10/$2.361,565
$24.00$1.00/$1.102,929$2.73/$3.101,056
$25.00$0.80/$0.8512,226$3.65/$3.903,094
Snapshot: 2026-05-22

Forward Projections & Estimates

NTM Revenue Growth-5.5%
Forward FCF Margin10.1%
Forward EBITDA Margin5.8%
Forward P/FCF27.4x
Forward EV/FCF14.0x
Forward Int. Coverage--
Model Risk Score8/10
Bankruptcy Odds0%
Est. Borrow Rate7.5%
Terminal EV/FCF6.0x
LT Growth-3.0%
LT FCF Margin6.0%

Employees

Headcount6,000
Revenue / Employee$604,983
Gross Profit / Employee$199,350
2023: 11,000 → 2024: 8,000 → 2025: 6,000 → 2026: 4,000 (-29% CAGR)

Institutional Ownership

Headline & net flow

NET BUYING

In Q1 2026 so far (quarter still filing), institutions are net buyers — bought 4.6% of float, sold 2.1%.

Net flow · Q1 2026still filing
+2.5% of float (net)
Bought 4.6% · Sold 2.1%
417 filers reported (last quarter: 406)

Ownership composition

Active
11.3%(+1.0% YoY)
338 filers
hedge / family / endowment
Retail funds
Fidelity, Schwab, 401(k)
Passive
23.3%(+1.5% YoY)
11 filers
Vanguard, iShares, SPDR
Market makers
0.7%(-0.9% YoY)
4 filers
Citadel, Susquehanna
Insiders
9.0%
Form 4 — latest per insider
0%25%50%75%100%2022-062023-032023-122024-092025-062026-03
ActiveRetail fundsPassiveMarket makersRetail direct

Top holders

Fund$ valueCost basisΔ QoQΔ YoYα lifeFund AUM
BlackRock, Inc.Passive$827M$23.56+$13.9M+$23.9M-0.2%$5.69T
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLCPassive$420M$23.04+$420M+$420M$4.04T
VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLCPassive$401M$23.04+$401M+$401M$1.91T
STATE STREET CORPPassive$291M$24.15+$4.0M+$3.8M-0.2%$2.89T
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLCPassive$175M$23.70+$5.5M+$13.8M+2.3%$1.61T
MARSHALL WACE, LLP$111M$23.77+$32.7M+$77.1M+0.6%$92.71B
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LPPassive$90.0M$22.59+$58.9M+$41.1M-0.4%$480.92B
CHARLES SCHWAB INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC$82.9M$22.97+$7.6M+$1.9M+0.7%$645.81B
Invesco Ltd.$78.7M$24.37−$6.0M+$63.5M-0.2%$652.04B
NORTHERN TRUST CORPPassive$76.6M$25.67+$3.8M+$3.2M-0.2%$755.34B
SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLPMM$71.4M$23.42−$10.1M−$84.0M-0.6%$77.14B
RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC$61.1M$24.04+$48.2M+$33.3M+1.2%$63.91B
VANGUARD FIDUCIARY TRUST COPassive$58.9M$23.04+$58.9M+$58.9M$395.83B
Bank of New York Mellon Corp$54.4M$24.66−$429K−$3.6M-0.2%$543.21B
MORGAN STANLEY$48.4M$23.89−$30.1M+$11.8M-0.3%$1.65T
VAN ECK ASSOCIATES CORP$46.0M$22.45−$18.7M+$280K+0.8%$133.17B
UBS Group AG$38.0M$28.20−$17.7M−$25.8M-0.3%$562.11B
Point72 Asset Management, L.P.$31.4M$22.26+$18.0M+$30.3M+0.9%$54.88B
Alyeska Investment Group, L.P.$30.7M$22.59−$18.3M−$30.1M-0.5%$35.33B
RHUMBLINE ADVISERS$24.9M$24.31+$284K+$255K+0.4%$116.90B
Cost basis is a volume-weighted estimate from accumulation periods within our 13F history; holders who built their position before our window started will show a stale basis. % above the cost basis is the unrealized gain at the current price.

Trading behavior

Smart-money alpha (lifetime, %/qtr)BULLISH
Holders
-0.06%
avg per quarter
Holders (ex-self)
-0.06%
excl. this stock
Buyers (this Q)
+0.42%
170 buyers · $1.40B in
Sellers (this Q)
-0.33%
103 sellers · $0.13B out
alpha coverage: 75% of $ has a lifetime-alpha record
Holder behavior on this stocksource: stock
On big dips (−10%+)
+22.9%
how holders react when this stock falls
On quiet Qs
-3.0%
−10% to +10% baseline
On rallies (+10%+)
-18.4%
how they react when this stock rises
Holders' portfolio flow this Q
+1.2%
inflows — adds are organic
Sellers' portfolio flow this Q
+11.5%
Sellers grew AUM elsewhere — opinionated cut of this stock.
▸ Compare to holder-profile behavior (across all their stocks)
Holder dip (any stock)
-5.6%
Holder mid (any stock)
-5.1%
Holder rally (any stock)
-5.8%

Top Holders Over Time

5-year share-count history (top 10 holders by peak, incl. exited) + price

08.0M16.0M23.9M31.9M$13$20$27$34$422021-062022-062023-062024-062025-062026-03
hover the chart for per-quarter detailprice (right axis)
MARSHALL WACE, LLP4.8MCHARLES SCHWAB INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC3.6MRENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC2.7MD. E. Shaw & Co., Inc.117KCITADEL ADVISORS LLC69KUBS Group AG1.6MInvesco Ltd.3.4MBank of New York Mellon Corp2.4MMORGAN STANLEY2.1MVAN ECK ASSOCIATES CORP2.0M

Analyst Coverage

Analyst Coverage
Analyst Ratings
6
20
10
Buy: 6Hold: 20Sell: 10Consensus: Hold
Consensus Estimates
QuarterRevenueEBITDANet IncEPSEPS Range# Analysts
2025 Q4987M1M110M$0.20$0.20 – $0.201
2026 Q11.5B2M203M$0.37$0.37 – $0.371
2026 Q2767M1M88M$0.16$0.16 – $0.161
2026 Q31.1B1M104M$0.19$0.19 – $0.191
2026 Q41.0B1M126M$0.23$0.23 – $0.231
2027 Q11.4B2M280M$0.51$0.51 – $0.511
2027 Q2550M1M33M$0.06$0.06 – $0.061
2027 Q3550M1M33M$0.06$0.06 – $0.061
2027 Q4550M1M27M$0.05$0.05 – $0.051
2028 Q1850M1M66M$0.12$0.12 – $0.121

Corporate

Executive Compensation (2018-2020)

Direct Pay$51.4M
Incentive & Other$15.5M
Total Compensation$66.9M
% of Revenue0.5%

Insider Trading (last 12mo)

Open-market only (Form 4 P-Purchase + S-Sale). Excludes grants, option exercises, tax withholding, gifts.
Officers & directors
Buys ($, 12mo)
$22.12M
6 txns · 4 insiders · 1,034,575 sh
Sells ($, 12mo)
$1.54M
13 txns · 2 insiders · 66,346 sh
Recent transactions
DateSideInsiderTitleSharesPriceDollarsOwned $
2026-04-13SELLRobinson Mark Haymondofficer: General Counsel and Secretary3,912$23.19$91K$2.67M
2026-04-01SELLRobinson Mark Haymondofficer: General Counsel and Secretary7,209$22.94$165K$2.25M
2026-04-01SELLMoore Daniel Williamofficer: PFO and PAO7,210$22.94$165K$2.32M
2026-01-23BUYCheng Lawrencedirector5,000$22.87$114K$2.01M
2026-01-21BUYAttal Alaindirector12,000$21.63$260K$12.90M
2026-01-21BUYCohen Ryandirector, officer: President, CEO and Chairman500,000$21.60$10.80M$828.35M
2026-01-20BUYAttal Alaindirector12,000$20.90$251K$12.22M
2026-01-20BUYCohen Ryandirector, officer: President, CEO and Chairman500,000$21.12$10.56M$799.25M
2026-01-12SELLRobinson Mark Haymondofficer: General Counsel and Secretary12,200$21.00$256K$2.21M
2026-01-02SELLRobinson Mark Haymondofficer: General Counsel and Secretary5,475$20.44$112K$2.40M
2026-01-02SELLMoore Daniel Williamofficer: PFO and PAO5,477$20.44$112K$2.21M
2025-10-02SELLMoore Daniel Williamofficer: PFO and PAO6,509$27.58$180K$3.11M
2025-10-02SELLRobinson Mark Haymondofficer: General Counsel and Secretary4,449$27.58$123K$3.10M
2025-09-02SELLMoore Daniel Williamofficer: PFO and PAO830$22.68$19K$2.70M
2025-07-24SELLRobinson Mark Haymondofficer: General Counsel and Secretary30$23.81$714$2.78M
2025-07-23SELLRobinson Mark Haymondofficer: General Counsel and Secretary11,055$24.18$267K$2.82M
2025-07-02SELLMoore Daniel Williamofficer: PFO and PAO721$23.95$17K$1.17M
2025-07-02SELLRobinson Mark Haymondofficer: General Counsel and Secretary1,269$23.95$30K$3.06M
2025-06-30BUYGrube Jamesdirector5,575$23.71$132K$698K

Order Flow (FINRA, ~3w lag)

40.8%retail+10.5pp
12.3%dark-0.3pp
week of 2026-04-27
10%20%30%40%50%60%24-1125-0225-0525-0825-1126-0226-04retail (non-ATS)dark (ATS)
Off-exchange volume from FINRA. Retail = non-ATS (wholesaler PFOF + broker internalization). Dark = ATS (dark-pool crossing networks, institutional). Lit-exchange = remainder.

Revenue Breakdown

Revenue Segments

By Product (2025-Q4)
New Video Game Hardware$535.6M-26%
Collectibles$365.0M+35%
Software$203.7M-29%
By Geography (2025-Q4)
Video Game Brands - United States$788.5M-8%
Video Game Brands - Australia$161.7M+9%
Video Game Brands - Europe$154.1M-21%
Video Game Brands - Canada$0.0M-100%

Filing Risk Analysis

Filing Risk Scores

GameStop Corp.: A Synthetic Investment Vehicle Masking Terminal Operational Decay

Overall Risk
6/10
Fraud
3/10
Dilution
9/10
Insolvency
2/10
Earnings Overstated
7/10
Hidden Liabilities
5/10
Legal
3/10
Audit Warnings
4/10
Hidden Upside
8/10
Contextually Acceptable
4/10

Counter-Thesis

Counter-Thesis & Recent News

📰 Recent News

In Q2 2025, GameStop reported a surprising 21.8% YoY revenue jump to $972.2M, driven by a 63% surge in collectibles and 31% in hardware. For Q3 2025 (reported Dec 2025), the company achieved a significant turnaround in profitability with an adjusted operating income of $52.1M. Additionally, management announced a special dividend of warrants to shareholders, allowing them to purchase more shares at $32, which could raise up to $1.9B. CEO Ryan Cohen recently increased his stake by 500,000 shares (April 2025), and the company now holds approximately 5,000 Bitcoins valued at over $528M as of late 2025 (Seeking Alpha, Retail Dive).

🐻 Bear Case

The core bear thesis centers on the structural decline of physical software sales as gaming shifts to digital-only platforms like Steam and the PlayStation Store. Despite overall profitability, net sales in the core software segment continue to face headwinds. Bears argue that the current valuation (Forward P/S around 3.0x) is significantly higher than historical averages and peer retail benchmarks, suggesting the stock is still trading on 'meme' sentiment rather than fundamental retail value (Investing.com, Capital.com).

🚩 Red Flags

A major concern for institutional investors is the 'black box' nature of management; GameStop famously does not hold earnings calls or provide forward-looking guidance. Furthermore, the company has a history of significant share dilution, having raised over $4B through ATM offerings in 2024 and 2025, which can cap upside potential for existing shareholders. The pivot into Bitcoin acquisitions adds a layer of non-operating volatility to the balance sheet (Barchart, Quiver Quantitative).

⚔️ Competitive Threats

GameStop faces existential competition from digital distribution giants and 'big box' retailers like Amazon and Walmart, who are aggressively expanding their own collectibles and trading card departments. The rise of subscription models (Xbox Game Pass) also reduces the need for consumers to visit physical stores for game discovery (Markets.com, Seeking Alpha).

💬 Customer Sentiment

Sentiment among the core retail base remains 'extremely bullish' on platforms like Stocktwits and Reddit. There is a high level of conviction in the 'collectibles pivot,' particularly with GameStop’s success in the graded trading card market (Pokemon and sports cards). This niche has fostered a renewed sense of community and store foot traffic that traditional gaming no longer provides. Institutional activity has also turned net-positive in recent quarters, with firms like Norges Bank and Citadel significantly increasing their positions in 2025 (Intellectia.AI, Quiver Quantitative).