GEMI
Gemini Space Station, Inc. Class A Common StockGemini Space Station, Inc. develops a crypto platform to buy, sell, and store crypto assets. The company's platform offers crypto assets, including bitcoin and ether; and services, such as derivatives exchange, staking services, an over-the-counter trading desk, institutional-grade custody, stablecoin, a U.S. credit card, and a Web3 studio for NFTs (non-fungible tokens). It serves individual retail users; and institutional investors, including asset managers, hedge funds, proprietary trading fir
2-Year Price History
Quarterly Financials & Projections
| Period | Rev | EBITDA | OpIn | NI | OCF | FCF | CapEx | Cash | Debt | Shares | ROIC | IntCov | EV/EBITDA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Est | 2028-Q1 | 58.0 | -34.8 | -- | -46.4 | -- | -17.4 | -1.5 | 99.6 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q4 | 53.0 | -39.8 | -- | -50.4 | -- | -20.1 | -1.1 | 117.0 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q3 | 56.0 | -44.8 | -- | -58.8 | -- | -22.4 | -1.1 | 137.1 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q2 | 52.0 | -49.4 | -- | -62.4 | -- | -25.0 | -1.0 | 159.5 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q1 | 50.0 | -55.0 | -- | -67.5 | -- | -27.5 | -1.0 | 184.5 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q4 | 45.0 | -58.5 | -- | -72.0 | -- | -31.5 | -0.7 | 212.0 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q3 | 48.0 | -69.6 | -- | -84.0 | -- | -36.0 | -0.7 | 243.5 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q2 | 42.0 | -75.6 | -- | -88.2 | -- | -39.9 | -0.6 | 279.5 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Act | 2026-Q1 | 39.4 | -93.9 | -105.1 | -109.0 | -54.4 | -54.6 | -0.1 | 319.4 | 18.8 | 116.6 | -43.1% | -12.4x | -- |
| Act | 2025-Q4 | 27.4 | -129.9 | -144.3 | -140.8 | -137.7 | -140.3 | -2.7 | 807.1 | 654.0 | 117.2 | -33.7% | -12.1x | -- |
| Act | 2025-Q3 | 50.6 | -130.2 | -120.8 | -159.5 | -61.7 | -80.0 | -3.0 | 1,164 | 1,045 | 23.9 | -21.4% | -5.7x | -- |
| Act | 2025-Q2 | 34.3 | -49.0 | -56.7 | -141.2 | 0.0 | -9.5 | -0.2 | 51.1 | 1,550 | 160.9 | -14.0% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2025-Q1 | 34.3 | -49.0 | -56.7 | -141.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.0 | 51.1 | 1,550 | 160.9 | -14.0% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2024-Q4 | 33.9 | -32.1 | -40.5 | -58.6 | -4.6 | -7.1 | -2.4 | 42.9 | 1,191 | 160.9 | -13.6% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2024-Q3 | 33.9 | -32.1 | -40.5 | -58.6 | -9.0 | -10.7 | -1.7 | 42.9 | 1,191 | 160.9 | -13.6% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2024-Q1 | 37.2 | -34.2 | -42.4 | -20.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.0 | 32.8 | 0.0 | 160.7 | -- | -- | -- |
Multiples vs the company's own history — cheap or rich relative to itself? Historical fiscal years, then TTM, then forward projections (E). Forward rows hold today's price against projected earnings, so the multiple compresses if the company grows into it.
| Year | Price | Rev Gr | EBITDA % | EBITDA | EV/EBITDA | EV/FCF | P/E | P/S |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 9.92 | — | -244.2% | -358 | n/m | n/m | n/m | 10.3× |
| TTM | 5.27 | +8.9% | -265.6% | -403 | 0.0× | 0.0× | 0.0× | 0.0× |
| 2027E | 5.27 | +39.1% | -0.9% | -2 | 0.0× | 0.0× | 0.0× | 0.0× |
EBITDA in reporting-currency $M. Historical multiples use year-end market cap (split-adjusted price history); TTM & forward years use today's.
AI Analysis
LLM Evaluations
GEMI is a deeply distressed crypto platform masquerading as a 'super app' transformation story. The company burns $50-140M per quarter in cash, has negative EBITDA margins exceeding -200%, relies on callable related-party debt that creates existential liquidity risk, and has seen its C-suite gutted. The 'Gemini 2.0' pivot to prediction markets and space infrastructure reads as desperation, not innovation. Executive compensation totaling 77% of revenue is egregious. With 32.8% short interest, a class action lawsuit, 75% stock decline from IPO, and only ~14 months of cash runway even after the founder bailout, the equity is a speculative option on crypto prices and management execution — both of which have been terrible. The related-party debt structure means equity could go to zero overnight if Winklevoss Capital calls its loans.
Latest Earnings Call
Transcript Summary
Gemini’s Q1 2026 results reflect a strategic pivot toward becoming a comprehensive 'markets super app.' Total revenue rose 42% year-over-year to $50.3 million, despite a 53% drop in spot trading volumes. This growth was fueled by the diversification into credit cards, OTC services, and prediction markets, with non-exchange services now comprising 49% of total revenue. To counter the 30% decline in Bitcoin's price since their IPO and a perceived equity undervaluation, Co-Founders Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss invested $100 million of their own capital into the firm. Key milestones this quarter include obtaining a DCO license from the CFTC, enabling the company to build in-house derivatives and futures clearing. Gemini also launched agentic trading APIs for AI-driven commerce. While the company reported a net loss of $109 million, management highlighted improved efficiency through a 30% workforce reduction and strong cross-sell metrics, with prediction market volumes growing 78% month-over-month. The company ended the quarter with strengthened liquidity and a clear roadmap to integrate commodities, weather contracts, and eventually equities into their regulated marketplace.
Valuation & Metrics
Market Stats
TTM Financial Snapshot
DCF Fair Value Estimate
Forward Outlook & Risk
Short Interest
Options
| Strike | Call Bid/Ask | Call OI | Put Bid/Ask | Put OI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $2.50 | $2.10/$3.60 | 122 | --/$0.10 | 1,916 |
| $5.00 | $0.80/$0.95 | 3,032 | $0.65/$0.75 | 1,013 |
| $7.50 | $0.20/$0.30 | 1,960 | $2.55/$2.70 | 433 |
| $10.00 | $0.05/$0.15 | 7,360 | $2.85/$5.60 | 282 |
| $12.50 | --/$0.10 | 2,796 | $6.70/$7.80 | 397 |
| $15.00 | --/$0.30 | 926 | $9.10/$10.20 | 882 |
| $17.50 | --/$2.10 | 341 | $11.10/$13.20 | 3 |
| $20.00 | --/$0.95 | 367 | $12.70/$15.90 | 1 |
Forward Projections & Estimates
Employees
Cash Runway
Institutional Ownership
Headline & net flow
In Q1 2026 so far (quarter still filing), institutions are net sellers — bought 10.1% of float, sold 15.5%. 3 filers moved >1% of shares (1 buying, 2 selling).
Ownership composition
Top holders
| Fund | $ value | Cost basis | Δ QoQ | Δ YoY | α life | Fund AUM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Creek Capital Management, LLC | $11.7M | $9.92 | +$0 | +$11.7M | -12.6% | $151M |
| MORGAN STANLEY | $5.2M | $14.01 | −$4.5M | +$5.2M | -0.3% | $1.65T |
| COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA | $3.2M | $9.92 | +$0 | +$3.2M | +0.8% | $231M |
| ParaFi Capital LP | $2.9M | $4.42 | +$2.9M | +$2.9M | -42.0% | $294M |
| VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLCPassive | $2.8M | $4.42 | +$2.8M | +$2.8M | — | $4.04T |
| BlackRock, Inc.Passive | $2.2M | $9.02 | +$352K | +$2.2M | -0.2% | $5.69T |
| GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLCPassive | $2.1M | $10.98 | −$54K | +$2.1M | +2.3% | $1.61T |
| UBS Group AG | $1.9M | $23.61 | +$108K | +$1.9M | -0.3% | $562.11B |
| MARSHALL WACE, LLP | $1.7M | $11.39 | +$1.4M | +$1.7M | +0.6% | $92.71B |
| SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLPMM | $1.4M | $17.71 | +$816K | +$1.4M | -0.6% | $77.14B |
| Alpine Global Management, LLC | $1.2M | $5.11 | +$1.2M | +$1.2M | +3.1% | $566M |
| VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLCPassive | $1.2M | $4.42 | +$1.2M | +$1.2M | — | $1.91T |
| Marex Group plc | $1.1M | $7.90 | +$388K | +$1.1M | -1.7% | $9.64B |
| LUMINUS MANAGEMENT LLC | $663K | $4.42 | +$663K | +$663K | -4.5% | $166M |
| JANE STREET GROUP, LLCMM | $474K | $23.96 | −$1.8M | +$474K | -0.1% | $92.10B |
| CITADEL ADVISORS LLC | $453K | $23.96 | −$535K | +$453K | -0.4% | $138.22B |
| BNP PARIBAS FINANCIAL MARKETS | $448K | $7.07 | +$232K | +$448K | -0.2% | $149.31B |
| CHARLES SCHWAB INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC | $436K | $9.88 | +$3K | +$436K | +0.7% | $645.81B |
| Cambridge Investment Research Advisors, Inc. | $436K | $10.19 | +$93K | +$436K | -0.4% | $38.49B |
| TUDOR INVESTMENT CORP ET AL | $430K | $4.42 | +$430K | +$430K | -0.3% | $17.85B |
Trading behavior
▸ Compare to holder-profile behavior (across all their stocks)
Biggest decreases this quarter
New buyers this quarter
Top-5 holders · 55.4%
Top Holders Over Time
5-year share-count history (top 10 holders by peak, incl. exited) + price
Analyst Coverage
| Quarter | Revenue | EBITDA | Net Inc | EPS | EPS Range | # Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q3 | 55M | -54M | -83M | $-0.71 | $-0.77 – $-0.66 | 2 |
| 2026 Q4 | 63M | -62M | -74M | $-0.63 | $-0.68 – $-0.59 | 1 |
| 2027 Q1 | 64M | -62M | -63M | $-0.54 | $-0.58 – $-0.51 | 1 |
| 2027 Q2 | 65M | -63M | -69M | $-0.59 | $-0.64 – $-0.55 | 1 |
| 2027 Q3 | 71M | -70M | -65M | $-0.56 | $-0.60 – $-0.52 | 1 |
| 2027 Q4 | 79M | -77M | -61M | $-0.52 | $-0.56 – $-0.49 | 1 |
| 2028 Q1 | 67M | -65M | 0M | $0.00 | $0.00 – $0.00 | 1 |
| 2028 Q2 | 71M | -69M | 0M | $0.00 | $0.00 – $0.00 | 1 |
| 2028 Q3 | 76M | -75M | 0M | $0.00 | $0.00 – $0.00 | 1 |
| 2028 Q4 | 85M | -83M | 0M | $0.00 | $0.00 – $0.00 | 1 |
Corporate
Executive Compensation (2024-2025)
Insider Trading (last 12mo)
| Date | Side | Insider | Title | Shares | Price | Dollars | Owned $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | SELL | Stojanovic Danijela | officer: Interim CFO | 11,700 | $5.05 | $59K | $918K |
Order Flow (FINRA, ~3w lag)
Revenue Breakdown
Revenue Segments
| Transaction Revenue | $24.1M | NEW |
| Service | $21.8M | NEW |
| Credit Card | $14.7M | NEW |
| Service, Other | $0.4M | NEW |
| Other Revenue | $0.1M | NEW |
| UNITED STATES | $45.2M | NEW |
| Non-US | $5.1M | NEW |
Filing Risk Analysis
Filing Risk Scores
Gemini Space Station, Inc.: A Leveraged Crypto House of Cards Built on Related Party Sand
Counter-Thesis
Counter-Thesis & Recent News
Gemini Space Station (GEMI) has faced a turbulent 2026, headlined by a major class action lawsuit (Methvin v. Gemini Space Station, Inc.) filed in March 2026 and a $100 million private placement in May 2026 from Winklevoss Capital. While the company recently reported a Q1 2026 revenue beat, it still posted a massive net loss of $108.98 million. This follows the abrupt February 2026 announcement of a 'Gemini 2.0' pivot, where the company shifted focus toward prediction markets and space infrastructure, while simultaneously cutting its workforce by 25% and exiting the U.K., E.U., and Australian markets (Market Chameleon, Simply Wall St).
The bear case centers on a complete breakdown of the original IPO thesis. Originally marketed as a high-growth crypto exchange, GEMI has retreated from core international markets and pivoted to unproven sectors like prediction markets and deep-space tourism. Financially, the company is burning cash at an unsustainable rate, with a pre-tax profit margin near -317% and negative free cash flow of $64.7 million in recent quarters. Major analysts have slashed price targets, with Citigroup maintaining a 'Sell' rating and a $4.00 target, citing deteriorating fundamentals and high execution risk (Business Wire, Timothy Sykes).
Several critical red flags have emerged in the last six months: 1) The sudden departure of the CFO, COO, and General Counsel in February 2026. 2) Allegations in securities litigation that IPO documents misled investors regarding the stability of the core business. 3) The stock has collapsed over 75% from its $28 IPO price. 4) Heavy dependence on 'story-driven' catalysts, such as deep-space propulsion news, to mask deep operational losses (MarketBeat, SueWallSt).
By exiting the U.K., E.U., and Australia, GEMI has ceded significant market share to established crypto rivals like Coinbase and Binance. Its pivot into 'prediction markets' places it in direct competition with specialized platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, where it lacks a first-mover advantage. Additionally, its 'Gemini 2.0' ambitions in space infrastructure face high-capital barriers and competition from more established aerospace entities (Simply Wall St, Barchart).
Sentiment is increasingly negative as the 'Gemini 2.0' pivot is viewed by many investors and users as a sign of desperation rather than innovation. The legal filings suggest an 'erased market confidence' in management's transparency, and the retreat from international markets has likely alienated its global user base. Traders characterize the stock as a 'high-risk speculative momentum name' where the crowd exits quickly at the first sign of weakness (StocksToTrade, Timothy Sykes).
Full Earnings Call Transcript
Full Earnings Call Transcript — Q1 • 2026-05-15
Operator: Good day. Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Gemini first quarter 2026 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would like to hand the conference over to Ryan Todd, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead. Ryan Todd: Good morning, and thank you for joining Gemini's first quarter 2026 earnings call. Joining me on the call today are Gemini's Co-Founders, Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, and our Interim CFO, Danijela Stojanovic. Yesterday, we released our first quarter 2026 financial results. During today's call, we may make forward-looking statements which may vary materially from actual results. Information concerning the risks and uncertainties is included in our SEC filings. Our discussion today will also include certain non-GAAP financial measures. We'll start today's call with prepared remarks and then take questions. With that, let me turn the call over to Cameron and Tyler. Cameron Winklevoss: Good morning. Thank you all for joining us. Since announcing Gemini 2.0, we have made meaningful progress towards building Gemini into a markets company. We started as a Bitcoin company, became a crypto company, and are now building the super app for the markets economy. This quarter, we grew revenue 42% and transaction revenue held steady year-over-year, even as trading volume declined more than 50% due to softness in the broader crypto market. We recognize where our share price sits. The price of Bitcoin is down roughly 30% since our IPO, and we are tied to that cycle. However, we do not believe the Gemini of today is 1/6 of the Gemini that IPO’d. We have launched a predictions marketplace and are building a foundation for crypto, predictions, credit card rewards, and soon, stocks. Because we believe the stock is significantly undervalued, we made a strategic investment of $100 million into Gemini via Winklevoss Capital at $14/share, funded in Bitcoin. Tyler Winklevoss: This quarter, Gemini achieved product and regulatory milestones that set us up for success. In April, we received a Derivatives Clearing Organization (DCO) license from the CFTC. This allows us to act as a clearinghouse for derivatives, event-based contracts, and down the road, futures and perpetual contracts. This follows our Designated Contract Market (DCM) license received in late 2025. Together, DCM plus DCO allow us to build an end-to-end marketplace in-house without third-party dependencies. This positions us for perpetual contracts, which we believe will be permitted in the U.S. soon. We also launched the first agentic trading tool on a regulated U.S. exchange, allowing AI agents like Claude and ChatGPT to connect to our API to place trades autonomously. We believe Gemini will one day have more machines as customers than humans. Danijela Stojanovic: Thank you. Revenue grew 42% year-over-year to $50.3 million, driven by the credit card, our OTC business, and our first full quarter from prediction markets. Services revenue and interest income now represents 49% of total revenue, up from 31% in Q1 of 2025. Total revenue was $50.3 million. Exchange revenue was $17.2 million, down 27% year-over-year, as spot trading volume declined 53% to $6.3 billion. OTC revenue was $6.3 million, and prediction markets contributed $0.4 million in their first full quarter. Monthly transacting users were 589,000, up 17% year-over-year. On the expense side, total operating expenses were $144.5 million, up 73% year-over-year. This includes $24.2 million of stock-based compensation and $6.5 million in severance from our 30% workforce reduction. Sales and marketing was $19.1 million. Net loss for the quarter was $109 million, an improvement of 27% year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA loss was $59.9 million. We ended the quarter with $215.6 million in liquidity, further bolstered by the $100 million founder investment. Ryan Todd: We will now take questions from our research analysts. Our first question comes from Adam Frisch at Evercore regarding the strategic rationale behind the $100 million investment. Cameron Winklevoss: Our belief is that Gemini stock is undervalued. We are disconnected from the underlying business. We have launched an entirely new predictions marketplace and acquired DCM and DCO licenses, which are trading north of $100 million each in the open market. We are being offensive and supporting future products, including equities. Ryan Todd: Next question is from James Yaro at Goldman Sachs on the status of the CLARITY Act. Cameron Winklevoss: It feels like we are getting closer to clarity, and we welcome a federal framework. If it stalls, we are already positioned in a very regulated posture and will continue building. Ryan Todd: Matt Coad at Truist asks about prediction markets cross-sell success. Cameron Winklevoss: We are encouraged that 3.4% of our user base has already placed a trade. Volume grew 78% month-over-month in April. We did approximately $30 million in notional last month and have already crossed $20 million so far this month. Half of that volume is crypto contracts, but we have added commodities like oil, gold, and silver. Ryan Todd: Dan Dolev from Mizuho asks about credit card performance and the higher provision for credit losses. Danijela Stojanovic: The portfolio is performing in line with expectations, with a 3.8% delinquency rate. The $8.6 million provision included a $4.1 million discrete fraud event which we believe is non-recurring. We have since strengthened our fraud controls. Pre-provision net revenue reached a new high of $3.8 million, up 150% year-over-year. Over half of our predictions traders are also Gemini cardholders. Ryan Todd: Michael Cyprys from Morgan Stanley asks about OTC and staking performance. Danijela Stojanovic: OTC performance was driven by a mix of market volatility and onboarding new institutional clients. Staking revenue was down 31% due to lower crypto asset prices and moderated network yields. However, we completed the migration to Staking 2.0, which enables auto-compounding and reduced redemption times from 50 days to eight days. Ryan Todd: John Todaro at Needham asks about prediction market categories. Cameron Winklevoss: Crypto contracts account for about 50%. Real-world commodities like oil and Brent are popular, and we’ve added weather contracts. We are just getting started and continue to ship improvements multiple times a week. Operator: This concludes today’s conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.