FutureFuel Corp., through its subsidiary, FutureFuel Chemical Company, manufactures and sells diversified chemical, bio-based fuel, and bio-based specialty chemical products in the United States. The company operates through two segments, Chemicals and Biofuels. The Chemicals segment provides various custom chemicals that are used in the agricultural chemical, coatings, chemical intermediates, industrial and consumer cleaning, oil and gas, and specialty polymers industries; and performance chemi
2-Year Price History
Quarterly Financials & Projections
| Period | Rev | EBITDA | OpIn | NI | OCF | FCF | CapEx | Cash | Debt | Shares | ROIC | IntCov | EV/EBITDA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Est | 2027-Q3 | 60.0 | 7.2 | -- | 4.2 | -- | 4.2 | -2.1 | 15.8 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q2 | 58.0 | 6.4 | -- | 3.5 | -- | 3.5 | -2.0 | 11.6 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q1 | 48.0 | 3.4 | -- | 1.2 | -- | -3.8 | -1.9 | 8.1 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q4 | 55.0 | 5.0 | -- | 2.2 | -- | 2.2 | -2.2 | 12.0 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q3 | 50.0 | 3.0 | -- | 0.8 | -- | 1.0 | -2.3 | 9.8 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q2 | 42.0 | 0.8 | -- | -0.8 | -- | -2.1 | -2.1 | 8.8 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q1 | 28.0 | -2.2 | -- | -4.2 | -- | -7.0 | -1.7 | 10.9 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Act | 2026-Q1 | 32.0 | -6.7 | -9.2 | -20.6 | -20.0 | -25.4 | -5.4 | 22.4 | 0.0 | 44.0 | -- | -229.6x | -- |
| Est | 2025-Q4 | 30.0 | -3.6 | -- | -5.4 | -- | -4.5 | -2.4 | 17.9 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Act | 2025-Q4 | 19.8 | -10.6 | -13.1 | -12.0 | -27.4 | -29.9 | -2.4 | 51.3 | 0.0 | 43.8 | -- | -- | -- |
| Act | 2025-Q3 | 22.7 | -6.8 | -9.7 | -9.3 | -1.1 | -6.5 | -5.3 | 85.6 | 0.0 | 43.8 | -- | -54.2x | -- |
| Act | 2025-Q2 | 35.7 | -7.9 | -11.9 | -10.4 | 5.2 | -0.3 | -5.5 | 95.2 | 0.0 | 43.8 | -- | -305.5x | -- |
| Act | 2025-Q1 | 17.5 | -15.3 | -18.8 | -17.6 | -5.4 | -9.4 | -4.0 | 97.1 | 0.0 | 43.8 | -- | -424.3x | 47.5x |
| Act | 2024-Q4 | 61.5 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 2.8 | -16.6 | -20.7 | -4.1 | 109.5 | 0.0 | 43.8 | 45.2% | 155.1x | 5.4x |
| Act | 2024-Q3 | 51.1 | 1.0 | -2.9 | -1.2 | 25.8 | 20.5 | -5.3 | 133.4 | 0.1 | 43.8 | -55.6% | 28.6x | 1.8x |
| Act | 2024-Q2 | 72.4 | 11.8 | 5.5 | 9.6 | 27.8 | 24.8 | -3.0 | 115.1 | 0.2 | 43.8 | 97.8% | 345.8x | 4.8x |
| Act | 2024-Q1 | 58.3 | 7.6 | 2.2 | 4.3 | -12.2 | -14.5 | -2.3 | 201.1 | 0.3 | 43.8 | 48.2% | 217.5x | 2.0x |
| Act | 2023-Q4 | 92.0 | 26.0 | 10.2 | 23.4 | 21.5 | 20.5 | -1.0 | 219.4 | 0.4 | 43.8 | 33.9% | 742.8x | 1.8x |
| Act | 2023-Q3 | 116.8 | 5.4 | 0.3 | 2.8 | 49.1 | 48.0 | -1.1 | 205.9 | 0.4 | 43.8 | 1.1% | 150.1x | 5.0x |
| Act | 2023-Q2 | 85.3 | -7.2 | -11.6 | -9.9 | -10.9 | -12.3 | -1.4 | 166.7 | 0.5 | 43.8 | -43.0% | -211.9x | 3.1x |
| Act | 2023-Q1 | 74.2 | 23.7 | 18.3 | 21.1 | -29.8 | -32.3 | -2.5 | 182.7 | 0.6 | 43.8 | 61.0% | 717.3x | 3.4x |
| Act | 2022-Q4 | 117.8 | 16.0 | 11.8 | 14.9 | 8.3 | 7.2 | -1.1 | 212.8 | 0.6 | 43.8 | 47.1% | 517.4x | 2.8x |
| Act | 2022-Q3 | 118.1 | 20.1 | 16.9 | 15.8 | 46.0 | 44.2 | -1.8 | 210.0 | 0.4 | 43.8 | 62.8% | 627.6x | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q2 | 117.8 | -1.3 | -1.5 | -3.1 | 8.7 | 7.8 | -0.9 | 168.6 | 0.5 | 43.8 | -4.8% | -39.5x | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q1 | 42.3 | -10.5 | -9.6 | -12.4 | -10.6 | -11.6 | -1.0 | 163.7 | 0.6 | 43.8 | -40.9% | -328.1x | -- |
Multiples vs the company's own history — cheap or rich relative to itself? Historical fiscal years, then TTM, then forward projections (E). Forward rows hold today's price against projected earnings, so the multiple compresses if the company grows into it.
| Year | Price | Rev Gr | EBITDA % | EBITDA | EV/EBITDA | EV/FCF | P/E | P/S |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 4.84 | — | 6.1% | 24 | 2.8× | 1.4× | 18.4× | 0.7× |
| 2023 | 3.73 | -7.0% | 13.0% | 48 | 1.8× | 3.6× | 8.2× | 0.8× |
| 2024 | 4.90 | -33.9% | 10.5% | 26 | 5.4× | 13.7× | 16.0× | 1.0× |
| 2025 | 3.15 | -60.6% | -42.5% | -41 | n/m | n/m | n/m | 1.8× |
| TTM | 4.14 | -45.6% | -29.1% | -32 | 0.0× | 0.0× | 0.0× | 0.0× |
| 2026E | 4.14 | +58.9% | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0× | 0.0× | n/m | 0.0× |
EBITDA in reporting-currency $M. Historical multiples use year-end market cap (split-adjusted price history); TTM & forward years use today's.
AI Analysis
LLM Evaluations
FutureFuel is a deeply challenged small-cap chemical/biofuels company in the midst of an operational crisis. Revenue has collapsed 55%+ YoY as the biofuels segment was idled due to unfavorable economics and regulatory uncertainty around 45Z credits. The chemicals segment is stable but subscale. While the company has a cash cushion (~$86M), it is burning through it rapidly, and the covenant amendment on its credit facility signals fragility. The stock trades at $4.57 (~$200M market cap) with $86M in cash, implying the market values the operating business at ~$115M EV — which seems generous for a business currently generating deeply negative EBITDA and FCF with no clear path to normalized earnings without favorable government policy. Bill-and-hold revenue recognition (33% of revenue) further reduces confidence in reported numbers. This is a value trap masquerading as an asset play.
Valuation & Metrics
Market Stats
TTM Financial Snapshot
DCF Fair Value Estimate
Forward Outlook & Risk
Short Interest
Options
| Strike | Call Bid/Ask | Call OI | Put Bid/Ask | Put OI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $2.50 | $1.30/$2.05 | 0 | --/$0.40 | 0 |
| $5.00 | $0.10/$0.75 | 31 | $0.80/$1.60 | 0 |
| $7.50 | --/$0.75 | 0 | $2.90/$4.10 | 0 |
Forward Projections & Estimates
Employees
Cash Runway
Institutional Ownership
Headline & net flow
In Q1 2026 so far (quarter still filing), institutions are net buyers — bought 8.5% of float, sold 5.9%. 1 filer moved >1% of shares (1 buying, 0 selling).
Ownership composition
Top holders
| Fund | $ value | Cost basis | Δ QoQ | Δ YoY | α life | Fund AUM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BlackRock, Inc.Passive | $7.1M | $5.26 | −$50K | −$396K | -0.2% | $5.69T |
| DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LPPassive | $6.5M | $4.47 | −$942K | −$2.2M | -0.4% | $480.92B |
| RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC | $6.1M | $4.11 | −$625K | −$1.6M | +1.2% | $63.91B |
| VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLCPassive | $4.5M | $3.85 | +$4.5M | +$4.5M | — | $4.04T |
| TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP | $3.2M | $4.11 | +$1.9M | +$2.2M | -0.9% | $117.03B |
| GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLCPassive | $2.6M | $4.35 | +$74K | −$783K | +2.3% | $1.61T |
| STATE STREET CORPPassive | $2.4M | $4.29 | +$3K | −$18K | -0.2% | $2.89T |
| AMERICAN CENTURY COMPANIES INC | $2.2M | $4.59 | −$718K | −$376K | +0.7% | $193.48B |
| BRIDGEWAY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC | $1.8M | $4.44 | +$39K | −$153K | -2.3% | $4.93B |
| CITADEL ADVISORS LLC | $1.5M | $4.02 | +$124K | +$1.5M | -0.4% | $138.22B |
| MARSHALL WACE, LLP | $1.5M | $4.23 | +$889K | +$1.2M | +0.6% | $92.71B |
| Empowered Funds, LLC | $1.2M | $4.74 | +$39K | +$234K | +0.2% | $15.64B |
| COMMONWEALTH EQUITY SERVICES, LLC | $1.2M | $4.53 | +$0 | −$103K | -0.3% | $71.14B |
| JANE STREET GROUP, LLCMM | $1.1M | $4.01 | +$765K | +$848K | -0.1% | $92.10B |
| MORGAN STANLEY | $1.1M | $4.29 | −$142K | +$49K | -0.3% | $1.65T |
| Hartree Partners, LP | $1.0M | $3.66 | +$0 | +$0 | +3.4% | $461M |
| NORTHERN TRUST CORPPassive | $814K | $4.31 | +$62K | −$62K | -0.2% | $755.34B |
| GSA CAPITAL PARTNERS LLP | $798K | $4.00 | −$341K | +$798K | -5.9% | $1.61B |
| Bank of New York Mellon Corp | $797K | $4.56 | +$106K | −$1.0M | -0.2% | $543.21B |
| SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLPMM | $772K | $4.14 | +$451K | +$586K | -0.6% | $77.14B |
Trading behavior
▸ Compare to holder-profile behavior (across all their stocks)
Biggest decreases this quarter
New buyers this quarter
Top-5 holders · 45.8%
Top Holders Over Time
5-year share-count history (top 10 holders by peak, incl. exited) + price
Analyst Coverage
| Quarter | Revenue | EBITDA | Net Inc | EPS | EPS Range | # Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 Q3 | 111M | 25M | 14M | $0.29 | $0.23 – $0.35 | 18 |
| 2014 Q1 | 100M | 15M | 7M | $0.20 | $0.16 – $0.24 | 15 |
| 2014 Q2 | 108M | 15M | 7M | $0.26 | $0.21 – $0.31 | 19 |
| 2014 Q3 | 103M | 22M | 11M | $0.26 | $0.21 – $0.31 | 16 |
| 2015 Q1 | 40M | 10M | 5M | $0.09 | $0.07 – $0.11 | 9 |
| 2015 Q2 | 232M | 10M | 5M | $0.28 | $0.22 – $0.33 | 10 |
| 2015 Q3 | 243M | 13M | 7M | $0.35 | $0.28 – $0.42 | 12 |
| 2016 Q1 | 33M | 7M | 7M | $0.11 | $0.09 – $0.13 | 13 |
| 2016 Q2 | 49M | 6M | 9M | $0.15 | $0.12 – $0.18 | 14 |
| 2016 Q3 | 57M | 9M | 10M | $0.19 | $0.15 – $0.23 | 12 |
Corporate
Insider Trading (last 12mo)
| Date | Side | Insider | Title | Shares | Price | Dollars | Owned $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-20 | BUY | Polet Roeland | officer: Chief Executive Officer | 15,000 | $3.20 | $48K | $80K |
Order Flow (FINRA, ~3w lag)
Revenue Breakdown
Revenue Segments
| Chemicals | $19.6M | +110% |
| Biofuels | $12.3M | +51% |
| UNITED STATES | $19.9M | NEW |
| Non-US | $0.3M | NEW |
Filing Risk Analysis
Filing Risk Scores
FutureFuel Corp.: Accounting Shifts and Bill-and-Hold Tactics Mask a Desperate Cash Burn
Counter-Thesis
Counter-Thesis & Recent News
In December 2025, FutureFuel declared a Q1 2026 dividend of $0.06/share and extended its $25 million share repurchase program through 2028, signaling confidence in capital stability despite operational headwinds. Operationally, the company completed a major specialty chemical production investment in Q3 2025, which began ramping up in Q4 2025 and is expected to contribute materially to revenue starting in Q1 2026. Additionally, management hinted at a potential restart of idled biodiesel production in late 2025/early 2026 as regulatory clarity regarding the IRA 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit improves (Sources: Stock Titan, GlobeNewswire).
The bear thesis centers on a massive 50-70% year-over-year revenue collapse caused by the temporary idling of the biofuels segment in mid-2025 due to unfavorable feedstock margins and regulatory uncertainty. Bears argue that the company is stuck in a 'trough' with negative EBITDA and net losses ($9.3M loss in Q3 2025) that may persist if the Clean Fuel Production Credit (45Z) does not provide sufficient subsidy clarity (Source: Seeking Alpha, Fintool).
Significant cash burn was evident in 2025, with cash reserves dropping from $109.5M at the end of 2024 to $85.6M by September 2025. The company also faces leadership transitions, including the transition of the CEO to Chairman and the resignation of veteran director Terrance Egger in late 2025, which can sometimes signal internal friction during a turnaround (Source: OTC Markets, Stock Titan).
FutureFuel faces intense scale competition in the biofuels space from giants like Chevron (Renewable Energy Group) and Green Plains, which benefit from superior economies of scale. In its chemicals segment, it competes with multi-billion dollar diversified players like Eastman Chemical and Huntsman Corporation, which may have better pricing power during cyclical downturns (Source: Seeking Alpha).
While the biofuel market remains stagnant, sentiment in the Chemicals segment is improving. Management reported a 'strong backlog of new projects' in late 2025 and noted that several chemical processes reached full capacity in Q3 to meet rising market demand. Contrarian technical analysts have recently upgraded the stock to a 'Strong Buy,' citing a bullish trend where the stock price has actually risen (+14% on certain updates) despite weak fundamental earnings, suggesting a 'climbing the wall of worry' sentiment among savvy buyers (Source: StockInvest.us, OTC Markets).