Stocks/FCFS

FCFS

FirstCash Holdings, Inc
Financial Services·Financial - Credit Services
$219.91
$9.6B market cap
Claude Rating
5/10HOLD
Revenue
$3.9B
Free Cash Flow
$502.6M
Rev Growth
+25.7%
FCF Margin
13.0%
P/FCF
19.2x
EV/FCF
24.1x
Fwd EV/EBITDA
10.2x
Fair Value
$185.00
Upside
-15.9%

FirstCash Holdings, Inc, together with its subsidiaries, operates retail pawn stores in the United States, Mexico, and rest of Latin America. Its pawn stores lend money on the collateral of pledged personal property, including jewelry, electronics, tools, appliances, sporting goods, and musical instruments; and retails merchandise acquired through collateral forfeitures on forfeited pawn loans and over-the-counter purchases of merchandise directly from customers. The company is also involved in

2-Year Price History

$227.59+97.1%
$100$120$140$160$180$200$220volMay 24Sep 24Jan 25May 25Sep 25Jan 26May 26

Quarterly Financials & Projections

Quarterly Waterfall ($ M)
PeriodRevEBITDAOpInNIOCFFCFCapExCashDebtSharesROICIntCovEV/EBITDA
Est2027-Q41,150373.8--115.0--178.3-25.31,216----------
Est2027-Q31,070310.3--91.0--133.8-19.31,038----------
Est2027-Q21,005286.4--80.4--120.6-20.1904.4----------
Est2027-Q1990.0297.0--89.1--133.7-17.8783.8----------
Est2026-Q41,100352.0--104.5--165.0-27.5650.2----------
Est2026-Q31,020290.7--81.6--122.4-18.4485.2----------
Est2026-Q2955.0267.4--71.6--109.8-19.1362.8----------
Est2026-Q1940.0277.3--79.9--122.2-16.9252.9----------
Act2026-Q11,052288.2175.7107.7153.6103.0-50.7130.72,61144.315.6%8.3x10.6x
Act2025-Q41,058363.7172.1104.2206.7171.5-35.2125.22,81844.314.3%10.3x9.5x
Act2025-Q3935.6249.8149.382.8135.8124.3-11.6130.22,57945.013.9%7.8x9.5x
Act2025-Q2830.6133.3105.259.8116.9103.9-13.0101.52,02345.011.8%5.1x8.3x
Act2025-Q1836.4253.0135.683.6126.6113.7-12.9146.02,03345.015.6%9.2x6.6x
Act2024-Q4883.8261.1137.183.6198.2185.9-12.2175.12,05045.015.9%9.6x7.1x
Act2024-Q3837.3243.5112.864.8113.199.7-13.4106.32,05445.013.4%8.9x6.8x
Act2024-Q2831.0228.194.949.1106.280.2-26.0113.71,99745.311.6%9.1x7.8x
Act2024-Q1836.4253.6105.661.4122.596.1-26.4135.11,85445.412.9%10.0x6.9x
Act2023-Q4852.1249.3121.369.699.185.7-13.4127.01,92345.414.9%9.4x7.0x
Act2023-Q3786.3233.4104.757.1111.493.0-18.486.61,89945.413.1%9.4x6.7x
Act2023-Q2750.6211.280.745.295.180.6-14.5104.61,70645.711.1%10.0x6.9x
Act2023-Q1762.7212.882.947.4110.696.8-13.8100.81,64146.311.7%10.2x6.3x
Act2022-Q4749.3238.696.280.1143.5137.6-6.0117.31,67146.512.8%11.9x5.9x
Act2022-Q3672.1206.274.859.399.089.1-9.9100.61,66247.010.4%11.3x--
Act2022-Q2647.6234.557.486.1106.694.0-12.7110.41,59947.56.7%14.4x--
Act2022-Q1659.8172.555.528.0120.1113.1-7.0113.31,54348.38.8%10.6x--

AI Analysis

LLM Evaluations

Claude5/10HOLDFV: $185.00

FirstCash is a well-managed, dominant pawn operator with attractive counter-cyclical characteristics and a growing international footprint. The core pawn business generates solid mid-teens FCF margins with ROIC consistently above 10%, and the H&T acquisition provides a new growth vector. However, at ~24-25x P/E and ~22x EV/FCF, the stock is priced for flawless execution at a time when the AFF segment faces rising charge-offs, leverage is elevated post-acquisition, insiders are selling aggressively, and regulatory risks persist (CFPB settlement). The market is pricing in continued gold price tailwinds and successful UK integration, leaving limited margin of safety. Fair value is roughly in line with current levels, making this a hold rather than a compelling entry point.

Catalyst Successful H&T integration delivering synergies ahead of schedule, stabilization of AFF charge-off rates, or a sustained gold price rally pushing pawn margins higher. De-leveraging below 3.0x could also re-rate the multiple upward.
Risk AFF credit deterioration accelerating beyond provisions, combined with a macro downturn that simultaneously weakens retail merchandise demand while spiking pawn loan losses — a scenario where both sides of the business deteriorate at once, amplified by elevated leverage.
Trend
IMPROVING
Mgmt
7/10
Quarter
7/10
Exp. Move
+2.0%

Valuation & Metrics

Market Stats

Price$219.91
Market Cap$9.6B
Enterprise Value$12.1B
P/S Ratio2.5x
P/FCF19.2x
EV/FCF24.1x
FCF Margin (TTM)13.0%
FCF Yield5.2%
Dividend Yield (TTM)--
Annual Dilution-1.6%
CurrencyUSD

TTM Financial Snapshot

Revenue$3.9B
Net Income$354.5M
Free Cash Flow$502.6M

Revenue Growth (YoY)+25.7%
EBITDA Margin26.7%
Net Margin9.1%
FCF Margin13.0%
CapEx % of Revenue2.8%
SBC % of Revenue0.0%
ROIC13.9%
WC Change % Rev-13.4%
Interest Coverage8.1x

DCF Fair Value Estimate

$105.05
-52.2% upside
Fair Enterprise Value$7.1B
− Net Debt$2.5B
= Fair Equity$4.6B
Revenue Growth5.0% → 4.0%
FCF Margin13.0% → 14.0%
Discount Rate13.0%
Terminal EV/FCF15.0x

Forward Outlook & Risk

Short Interest

Short % of Float3.3%
Short Shares1.2M
Days to Cover3.5
Change (vs Prior)+13.6%
Short % Float History
3.30%+2.00pp
1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%04-3007-1509-1511-1401-1504-30

Options

Call IV (ATM)29%
Put IV (ATM)30%
ATM Spread1.8%
Call $OI (near money)$697K
Put $OI (near money)$13K
ATM ExpiryJuly 17, 2026 (56D)
ATM Strike$230.0
Major Expirations2
Near-money chain · July 17, 2026
StrikeCall Bid/AskCall OIPut Bid/AskPut OI
$195.00$33.40/$37.100$0.10/$3.600
$200.00$28.60/$32.600$0.60/$4.100
$210.00$21.20/$24.300$3.00/$5.000
$220.00$14.10/$17.701$5.70/$8.000
$230.00$7.80/$11.900$9.10/$13.100
$240.00$4.80/$7.0038$15.50/$18.500
$250.00$1.20/$4.800$22.50/$25.800
$260.00$0.05/$1.756$31.20/$34.500
Snapshot: 2026-05-22

Forward Projections & Estimates

NTM Revenue Growth+3.6%
Forward FCF Margin12.9%
Forward EBITDA Margin29.6%
Forward P/FCF18.6x
Forward EV/FCF23.3x
Forward Int. Coverage8.8x
Model Risk Score5/10
Bankruptcy Odds3%
Est. Borrow Rate6.5%
Terminal EV/FCF15.0x
LT Growth4.0%
LT FCF Margin14.0%

Employees

Headcount20,000
Revenue / Employee$193,814
Gross Profit / Employee$96,364
2022: 18,000 → 2023: 19,000 → 2024: 20,000 → 2025: 22,000 (7% CAGR)

Institutional Ownership

Headline & net flow

NET BUYING

In Q1 2026 so far (quarter still filing), institutions are net buyers — bought 8.9% of float, sold 2.8%. 1 filer moved >1% of shares (1 buying, 0 selling).

Net flow · Q1 2026still filing
+6.2% of float (net)
Bought 8.9% · Sold 2.8%
467 filers reported (last quarter: 430)

Ownership composition

Active
54.1%(+23.3% YoY)
438 filers
hedge / family / endowment
Retail funds
Fidelity, Schwab, 401(k)
Passive
16.8%(+0.7% YoY)
6 filers
Vanguard, iShares, SPDR
Market makers
0.1%(-0.1% YoY)
9 filers
Citadel, Susquehanna
Insiders
19.4%
Form 4 — latest per insider
0%25%50%75%100%2022-062023-032023-122024-092025-062026-03
ActiveRetail fundsPassiveMarket makersRetail direct

Top holders

Fund$ valueCost basisΔ QoQΔ YoYα lifeFund AUM
BlackRock, Inc.Passive$891M$113.16+$4.1M−$72.4M-0.2%$5.69T
FMR LLC$695M$101.37−$18.0M−$524M+0.3%$1.89T
EARNEST PARTNERS LLC$406M$91.09−$10.6M−$31.2M-1.1%$24.25B
STATE STREET CORPPassive$268M$108.06+$3.5M−$6.8M-0.2%$2.89T
PRICE T ROWE ASSOCIATES INC /MD/$264M$159.20+$44.1M+$259M-0.2%$864.93B
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLCPassive$217M$130.03+$20.4M+$34.4M+2.3%$1.61T
Hood River Capital Management LLC$213M$118.04+$3.3M+$133M-1.1%$9.97B
BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/$209M$106.86−$1.1M−$14.8M-0.1%$1.36T
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LPPassive$186M$94.13−$3.6M−$3.3M-0.4%$480.92B
FIDUCIARY MANAGEMENT INC /WI/$171M$101.25−$9.8M−$72.0M+1.4%$8.06B
Stephens Investment Management Group LLC$156M$72.79−$2.8M−$10.6M-1.1%$7.24B
ALLIANCEBERNSTEIN L.P.$150M$173.61+$84.8M+$137M-0.3%$307.70B
SEI INVESTMENTS CO$149M$108.16+$3.2M+$23.6M-0.4%$108.06B
Capital Research Global Investors$105M$149.69+$4.2M+$105M+0.4%$644.55B
VICTORY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT INC$99.6M$119.66−$3.5M+$67.5M-0.2%$156.12B
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO$98.7M$130.96−$8.8M+$69.8M-0.2%$1.47T
NORTHERN TRUST CORPPassive$97.3M$99.39+$419K−$12.7M-0.2%$755.34B
FULLER & THALER ASSET MANAGEMENT, INC.$93.4M$139.08+$5.4M+$93.4M-0.1%$29.55B
Boston Partners$93.0M$97.86−$20.7M−$30.5M+0.5%$95.40B
VAUGHAN NELSON INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, L.P.$89.3M$116.53+$7.6M−$31.1M-0.4%$9.95B
Cost basis is a volume-weighted estimate from accumulation periods within our 13F history; holders who built their position before our window started will show a stale basis. % above the cost basis is the unrealized gain at the current price.

Trading behavior

Smart-money alpha (lifetime, %/qtr)NEUTRAL
Holders
-0.03%
avg per quarter
Holders (ex-self)
-0.04%
excl. this stock
Buyers (this Q)
-0.05%
218 buyers · $1.07B in
Sellers (this Q)
-0.18%
163 sellers · $-0.26B out
alpha coverage: 100% of $ has a lifetime-alpha record
Holder behavior on this stocksource: stock
On big dips (−10%+)
+11.0%
how holders react when this stock falls
On quiet Qs
-3.9%
−10% to +10% baseline
On rallies (+10%+)
-11.1%
how they react when this stock rises
Holders' portfolio flow this Q
+1.9%
inflows — adds are organic
Sellers' portfolio flow this Q
-2.5%
Sellers shed AUM broadly — partly forced.
▸ Compare to holder-profile behavior (across all their stocks)
Holder dip (any stock)
-4.5%
Holder mid (any stock)
-2.1%
Holder rally (any stock)
-2.5%

Top Holders Over Time

5-year share-count history (top 10 holders by peak, incl. exited) + price

04.0M7.9M11.9M15.9M$66$97$127$158$1882021-122022-092023-062024-032024-122025-092026-03
hover the chart for per-quarter detailprice (right axis)
FMR LLC3.7MEARNEST PARTNERS LLC2.2MPRICE T ROWE ASSOCIATES INC /MD/1.4MHood River Capital Management LLC1.1MBANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/1.1MFIDUCIARY MANAGEMENT INC /WI/912KCOOKE & BIELER LPStephens Investment Management Group LLC832KALLIANCEBERNSTEIN L.P.938KSEI INVESTMENTS CO794K

Analyst Coverage

Analyst Coverage
Price Targets
Last Quarter (1 analysts)$252.001460.0%
Last Year (5 analysts)$206.80-600.0%
Current Price$219.91

Corporate

Executive Compensation (2023-2025)

Direct Pay$121.1M
Incentive & Other$44.5M
Total Compensation$165.5M
% of Revenue1.6%

Insider Trading (last 12mo)

Open-market only (Form 4 P-Purchase + S-Sale). Excludes grants, option exercises, tax withholding, gifts.
Officers & directors
Buys ($, 12mo)
$0
0 txns · 0 insiders · 0 sh
Sells ($, 12mo)
$32.44M
21 txns · 7 insiders · 207,900 sh
Recent transactions
DateSideInsiderTitleSharesPriceDollarsOwned $
2026-05-19SELLHambleton Howard Fofficer: AFF President3,000$226.41$679K$7.34M
2026-05-18SELLORR R DOUGLASofficer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer3,000$227.30$682K$8.12M
2026-05-18SELLStuart Thomas Brentofficer: President and COO10,000$228.49$2.28M$32.18M
2026-05-01SELLGarrett Paula Kdirector1,500$217.40$326K$1.43M
2026-02-18SELLHambleton Howard Fofficer: AFF President4,000$185.12$740K$6.55M
2026-02-17SELLORR R DOUGLASofficer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer3,000$182.98$549K$6.72M
2026-02-17SELLStuart Thomas Brentofficer: President and COO10,000$182.53$1.83M$27.53M
2026-02-05SELLHambleton Howard Fofficer: AFF President2,000$177.65$355K$7.00M
2026-02-05SELLORR R DOUGLASofficer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer7,500$175.19$1.31M$6.61M
2025-12-15SELLHambleton Howard Fofficer: AFF President4,000$163.74$655K$4.35M
2025-11-20SELLOwen Randel Gdirector1,500$152.20$228K$1.16M
2025-11-19SELLWESSEL RICK Ldirector, officer: Vice-Chairman & CEO20,000$156.39$3.13M$135.59M
2025-11-17SELLORR R DOUGLASofficer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer5,500$158.30$871K$6.05M
2025-11-17SELLStuart Thomas Brentofficer: President and COO10,000$159.97$1.60M$20.43M
2025-10-15SELLORR R DOUGLASofficer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer6,852$159.67$1.09M$6.34M
2025-10-14SELLORR R DOUGLASofficer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer648$159.00$103K$7.47M
2025-09-02SELLORR R DOUGLASofficer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer5,500$147.50$811K$6.16M
2025-08-21SELLWESSEL RICK Ldirector, officer: Vice-Chairman & CEO30,976$139.33$4.32M$125.67M
2025-08-20SELLWESSEL RICK Ldirector, officer: Vice-Chairman & CEO69,024$138.49$9.56M$129.21M
2025-08-04SELLGRAVES JAMES Hdirector6,000$134.56$807K$2.13M

Order Flow (FINRA, ~3w lag)

14.5%retail-1.9pp
35.4%dark+6.5pp
week of 2026-04-13
10%20%30%40%24-1125-0225-0525-0825-1126-0226-04retail (non-ATS)dark (ATS)
Off-exchange volume from FINRA. Retail = non-ATS (wholesaler PFOF + broker internalization). Dark = ATS (dark-pool crossing networks, institutional). Lit-exchange = remainder.

Revenue Breakdown

Revenue Segments

By Product (2026-Q1)
U.S. Pawn Segment$489.0M+16%
Retail POS Payment Solutions$204.5M-11%
By Geography (2026-Q1)
U.S. Pawn Segment$489.0MNEW
Latin America Pawn Segment$257.1MNEW
Retail POS Payment Solutions$204.5MNEW

Filing Risk Analysis

Filing Risk Scores

FirstCash Holdings, Inc.: Administrative Shell Analysis Reveals Substantive Information Void

Overall Risk
5/10
Fraud
2/10
Dilution
3/10
Insolvency
3/10
Earnings Overstated
5/10
Hidden Liabilities
5/10
Legal
6/10
Audit Warnings
1/10
Hidden Upside
1/10
Contextually Acceptable
10/10

Counter-Thesis

Counter-Thesis & Recent News

📰 Recent News

As of early 2026, FirstCash faces a mixed outlook despite reporting strong 2025 earnings. Significant news includes a July 2025 $11M settlement with the CFPB over Military Lending Act (MLA) violations, where the company was fined $4M and ordered to pay $7M in consumer redress for charging service members usurious rates. More recently, in January 2026, Zacks Research downgraded the stock from 'Strong Buy' to 'Hold,' citing valuation concerns after a significant rally. Additionally, the company completed the $400M acquisition of UK-based H&T Group, which has increased leverage and introduced integration risks in a new regulatory environment (TipRanks, MarketBeat).

🐻 Bear Case

The bear case centers on a 'priced-to-perfection' valuation and deteriorating credit conditions. FCFS trades at a premium P/E of ~24.7x, which is historically high for a pawn operator and leaves zero margin for error. Analysts at Simply Wall St and TipRanks have flagged a slowing free-cash-flow trend and a 2025 leverage increase that could limit future M&A. Furthermore, while pawn demand is counter-cyclical, a 'goldilocks' economy of high employment but low affordability is shifting; if unemployment rises sharply, the retail side (selling forfeited goods) will crater even as loan demand rises, creating a margin squeeze.

🚩 Red Flags

Heavy insider selling is a primary red flag; in February 2026 alone, the CFO and other top executives sold over 30,500 shares valued at approximately $5.4M, representing significant position decreases (MarketBeat). Another major concern is the recurring nature of regulatory issues; the 2025 CFPB settlement was linked to violations of a previous 2013 consent order, suggesting a systemic failure to implement required compliance measures. High debt-to-equity following the H&T acquisition also poses a risk if interest rates remain elevated or if the UK market underperforms.

⚔️ Competitive Threats

The rapid expansion of Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) services like Klarna and Affirm into 'everyday items' and point-of-sale financing represents a direct threat to FirstCash's American First Finance (AFF) segment. BNPL originations are estimated to reach $70B in 2025, capturing a demographic that previously relied on pawn or high-interest retail credit. Furthermore, traditional banks are increasingly entering the small-dollar loan space to recapture interchange fees, potentially siphoning away FCFS's under-banked customer base (Richmond Fed, The Financial Brand).

💬 Customer Sentiment

Sentiment among core users is deteriorating, characterized by high-friction disputes over collateral. Recent BBB filings from late 2025 and early 2026 include allegations of 'fraud' where items were reportedly sold while still in active loan status or placed under incorrect names to prevent retrieval. Customers frequently cite 'rude and unprofessional' staff and manager-level incompetence regarding technical items (e.g., damaged laptop screens during storage). Trustpilot ratings remain 'Poor,' reflecting a lack of trust in the transparency of the pawn process (BBB, Trustpilot).