EQ

Equillium, Inc.
Healthcare·Biotechnology
$2.90
$103M market cap
Claude Rating
2/10SHORT
Revenue
$0.0M
Free Cash Flow
$-18.9M
Rev Growth
+0.0%
FCF Margin
0.0%
P/FCF
--
EV/FCF
--
Fwd EV/EBITDA
--
Fair Value
$0.55
Upside
-81.0%

Equillium, Inc., a clinical-stage biotechnology company, develops and sells products to treat severe autoimmune and inflammatory, or immuno-inflammatory disorders with unmet medical need. The company's lead product candidate is itolizumab (EQ001), a clinical-stage monoclonal antibody that targets the novel immune checkpoint receptor CD6, which is in Phase III clinical trials for the treatment of acute graft-versus-host disease; completed Phase Ib clinical trial for the treatment of asthma diseas

2-Year Price History

$2.26+182.5%
$0.50$1.0$1.5$2.0volJun 24Oct 24Jan 25May 25Sep 25Jan 26May 26

Quarterly Financials & Projections

Quarterly Waterfall ($ M)
PeriodRevEBITDAOpInNIOCFFCFCapExCashDebtSharesROICIntCovEV/EBITDA
Est2027-Q31.0-8.0---8.0---7.5-0.11.8----------
Est2027-Q20.5-8.0---8.0---7.5-0.19.3----------
Est2027-Q10.5-8.0---8.0---7.5-0.116.8----------
Est2026-Q40.5-8.0---8.0---7.5-0.124.3----------
Est2026-Q30.1-8.5---8.5---8.0-0.131.8----------
Est2026-Q20.1-8.0---8.0---7.5-0.139.8----------
Est2026-Q10.1-7.5---7.5---7.0-0.147.3----------
Act2026-Q10.0-5.6-5.6-5.3-4.3-4.3-0.061.30.796.3-41.3%----
Est2025-Q40.1-7.5---7.5---7.0-0.154.3----------
Act2025-Q40.0-3.9-4.0-3.8-3.1-3.2-0.030.30.791.9-66.4%----
Act2025-Q30.0-4.2-4.6-4.2-8.4-8.4-0.033.10.735.7-68.7%----
Act2025-Q20.0-6.2-6.2-5.7-3.0-3.0-0.011.50.335.7<-999%----
Act2025-Q10.0-8.8-8.9-8.7-8.2-8.2-0.014.50.335.6<-999%----
Act2024-Q44.4-5.4-4.7-5.8-3.3-3.3-0.022.60.435.4<-999%----
Act2024-Q312.20.0-0.7-0.0-7.7-7.7-0.025.90.535.4-106.1%----
Act2024-Q213.9-0.1-0.10.50.70.7-0.133.30.636.6-20.5%----
Act2024-Q110.7-2.8-2.8-2.7-8.8-8.8-0.032.30.735.3<-999%----
Act2023-Q49.2-2.3-3.2-2.3-5.7-5.7-0.040.90.835.2<-999%----
Act2023-Q38.9-3.2-3.6-3.7-1.9-1.9-0.046.30.934.9<-999%----
Act2023-Q29.1-3.0-3.6-3.3-6.2-6.2-0.048.41.034.5<-999%-11.8x--
Act2023-Q18.9-3.6-4.1-3.9-8.0-8.0-0.062.08.734.4-168.9%-15.6x--
Act2022-Q415.83.12.02.827.727.7-0.071.010.234.458.5%11.3x--
Act2022-Q30.0-13.4-13.2-13.7-13.1-13.1-0.044.512.134.4-437.7%-50.0x--
Act2022-Q20.0-13.8-13.6-14.1-11.3-11.3-0.157.612.234.3-325.6%-53.4x--
Act2022-Q10.0-37.1-37.3-37.4-12.1-12.4-0.268.812.231.9-509.8%-145.6x--
Historical Valuation

Multiples vs the company's own history — cheap or rich relative to itself? Historical fiscal years, then TTM, then forward projections (E). Forward rows hold today's price against projected earnings, so the multiple compresses if the company grows into it.

YearPriceRev GrEBITDA %EBITDAEV/EBITDAEV/FCFP/EP/S
20221.06-388.7%-61n/mn/mn/m4.9×
20230.72+129.0%-33.6%-12n/m0.7×
20240.75+13.9%-19.9%-8n/mn/mn/m0.7×
20251.55-100.0%-23n/mn/mn/m
TTM2.90-100.0%-200.0×0.0×0.0×
2026E2.90-40.0%-00.0×0.0×0.0×0.0×

EBITDA in reporting-currency $M. Historical multiples use year-end market cap (split-adjusted price history); TTM & forward years use today's.

AI Analysis

LLM Evaluations

Claude2/10SHORTFV: $0.55

Equillium is a pre-revenue clinical-stage biotech with zero near-term revenue after losing its only revenue streams, an accumulated deficit of $212M, approximately 17 months of cash runway, and a massive dilution overhang where reserved shares exceed outstanding shares by 2.3x. The pivot to EQ504 is essentially a restart — Phase 1 trials won't begin until mid-2026, meaning any meaningful data readout is 2+ years away. The $50M financing deal is heavily dilutive and contingent on milestones that may never be hit. Insider selling by the COO immediately after the capital raise is a significant red flag. While EQ504's multi-cytokine platform has theoretical promise in IBD, the company lacks the capital, infrastructure, and regulatory track record to compete against entrenched biologics. At $1.77/share with 35.7M shares outstanding (and 81.5M reserved), the fully diluted market cap approaches $200M+ for a company with no revenue, no approved product, and a failed Phase 3 in its lead indication. This is a capital destruction machine for equity holders.

Catalyst The only upside catalyst would be surprisingly positive Phase 1 EQ504 data or a partnership/licensing deal with a larger pharma company. The $20M milestone closing could extend runway if triggered, but requires stock price at $2.50 VWAP which is uncertain.
Risk Cash depletion forcing additional dilutive financing at distressed prices, potentially leading to a reverse split or delisting. The 81.5M reserved shares create a massive dilution ceiling that will suppress any stock appreciation.
Trend
DETERIORATING
Mgmt
3/10
Quarter
2/10
Exp. Move
-10.0%

Valuation & Metrics

Market Stats

Price$2.90
Market Cap$103M
Enterprise Value$42M
P/S Ratio0.0x
P/FCF--
EV/FCF--
FCF Margin (TTM)0.0%
FCF Yield-18.4%
Dividend Yield (TTM)--
Annual Dilution170.5%
CurrencyUSD

TTM Financial Snapshot

Revenue$0.0M
Net Income$-19.1M
Free Cash Flow$-18.9M

Revenue Growth (YoY)+0.0%
EBITDA Margin0.0%
Net Margin0.0%
FCF Margin0.0%
CapEx % of Revenue0.0%
SBC % of Revenue0.0%
ROIC-2448.7%
WC Change % Rev0.0%
Interest Coverage--

DCF Fair Value Estimate

$-0.33
-111.2% upside
Fair Enterprise Value$-314M
− Net Debt$-61M
= Fair Equity$-31M
Revenue Growth30.0% → 1.0%
FCF Margin0.0% → -500.0%
Discount Rate18.0%
Terminal EV/FCF6.0x

Forward Outlook & Risk

Short Interest

Short % of Float16.0%
Short Shares2.8M
Days to Cover7.9
Change (vs Prior)+1.8%
Short % Float History
16.00%+15.20pp
0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%04-3007-1509-1511-1401-1504-30

Options

Call IV (ATM)145%
Put IV (ATM)--
ATM Spread11.1%
Call $OI (near money)$39K
Put $OI (near money)$8K
ATM ExpiryJuly 17, 2026 (56D)
ATM Strike$2.5
Major Expirations3
Near-money chain · July 17, 2026
StrikeCall Bid/AskCall OIPut Bid/AskPut OI
$2.50$0.30/$0.55386--/$1.9013
$5.00--/$0.551$1.50/$4.100
$7.50--/$1.950$4.00/$6.601
Snapshot: 2026-05-22

Forward Projections & Estimates

NTM Revenue Growth+0.0%
Forward FCF Margin-7375.0%
Forward EBITDA Margin-7875.0%
Forward P/FCF--
Forward EV/FCF--
Forward Int. Coverage--
Model Risk Score10/10
Bankruptcy Odds40%
Est. Borrow Rate100.0%
Terminal EV/FCF6.0x
LT Growth0.0%
LT FCF Margin-500.0%

Employees

Headcount35
Revenue / Employee$0
Gross Profit / Employee$-3,057
2022: 36 → 2023: 71 → 2024: 35 → 2025: 14 (-27% CAGR)

Cash Runway

38.9months
WATCH

Institutional Ownership

Headline & net flow

NET BUYING

In Q1 2026 so far (quarter still filing), institutions are net buyers — bought 46.4% of float, sold 18.5%. 7 filers moved >1% of shares (5 buying, 2 selling).

Net flow · Q1 2026still filing
+28.0% of float (net)
Bought 46.4% · Sold 18.5%
52 filers reported (last quarter: 41)

Ownership composition

Active
95.5%(+91.7% YoY)
37 filers
hedge / family / endowment
Retail funds
Fidelity, Schwab, 401(k)
Passive
7.0%(+6.4% YoY)
8 filers
Vanguard, iShares, SPDR
Market makers
0.9%(+0.9% YoY)
4 filers
Citadel, Susquehanna
Insiders
5.9%
Form 4 — latest per insider
0%25%50%75%100%2022-062023-032023-122024-092025-062026-03
ActiveRetail fundsPassiveMarket makersRetail direct

Top holders

Fund$ valueCost basisΔ QoQΔ YoYα lifeFund AUM
JANUS HENDERSON GROUP PLC$13.0M$1.59+$1.3M+$13.0M+1.2%$209.29B
ADAGE CAPITAL PARTNERS GP, L.L.C.$10.7M$1.43+$0+$10.7M-0.1%$64.61B
Decheng Capital LLC$8.9M$0.72+$0+$0-1.7%$661M
ADAR1 Capital Management, LLC$7.5M$1.46−$3.8M+$7.5M+8.3%$1.64B
Woodline Partners LP$7.0M$1.43+$0+$7.0M-0.1%$26.43B
Aberdeen Group plc$6.7M$1.67+$2.0M+$6.7M-0.6%$61.88B
RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P.$6.2M$2.00+$6.2M+$6.2M-4.4%$9.44B
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLCPassive$3.6M$2.00+$3.6M+$3.6M$4.04T
BALYASNY ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC$3.3M$1.43−$875K+$3.3M-0.4%$48.01B
Eversept Partners, LP$3.0M$2.00+$3.0M+$3.0M-0.3%$1.52B
Affinity Asset Advisors, LLC$2.5M$2.00+$2.5M+$2.5M+0.5%$1.60B
RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC$1.3M$1.06−$153K+$775K+1.2%$63.91B
DIADEMA PARTNERS LP$868K$1.56+$173K+$868K+2.6%$224M
Hudson Bay Capital Management LP$857K$1.47+$0+$857K+1.9%$15.12B
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLCPassive$758K$1.56+$67K+$347K+2.3%$1.61T
Ikarian Capital, LLC$607K$1.43+$0+$607K-8.9%$698M
CANTOR FITZGERALD, L. P.$525K$1.46−$600K+$525K-3.1%$2.75B
TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP$492K$1.48−$157K+$492K-0.9%$117.03B
JANE STREET GROUP, LLCMM$442K$1.88+$241K+$442K-0.1%$92.10B
VANGUARD FIDUCIARY TRUST COPassive$379K$2.00+$379K+$379K$395.83B
Cost basis is a volume-weighted estimate from accumulation periods within our 13F history; holders who built their position before our window started will show a stale basis. % above the cost basis is the unrealized gain at the current price.

Trading behavior

Smart-money alpha (lifetime, %/qtr)BEARISH
Holders
+0.41%
avg per quarter
Holders (ex-self)
+0.37%
excl. this stock
Buyers (this Q)
-1.17%
25 buyers · $0.02B in
Sellers (this Q)
+6.18%
13 sellers · $0.00B out
alpha coverage: 95% of $ has a lifetime-alpha record
Holder behavior on this stocksource: stock
On big dips (−10%+)
+1.9%
how holders react when this stock falls
On quiet Qs
+1.6%
−10% to +10% baseline
On rallies (+10%+)
+15.5%
how they react when this stock rises
Holders' portfolio flow this Q
+2.4%
inflows — adds are organic
Sellers' portfolio flow this Q
+15.9%
Sellers grew AUM elsewhere — opinionated cut of this stock.
▸ Compare to holder-profile behavior (across all their stocks)
Holder dip (any stock)
-5.6%
Holder mid (any stock)
-4.1%
Holder rally (any stock)
-8.7%

Top Holders Over Time

5-year share-count history (top 10 holders by peak, incl. exited) + price

07.5M15.0M22.5M29.9M$0.32$1.02$1.73$2.44$3.152021-062022-062023-062024-062025-062026-03
hover the chart for per-quarter detailprice (right axis)
VICTORY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT INCDecheng Capital Management III (Cayman), LLCJANUS HENDERSON GROUP PLC6.5MADAGE CAPITAL PARTNERS GP, L.L.C.5.3MDecheng Capital LLC4.4MADAR1 Capital Management, LLC3.7MWoodline Partners LP3.5MAberdeen Group plc3.4MRA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P.3.1MSamsara BioCapital, LLC

Analyst Coverage

Analyst Coverage
Price Targets
Last Quarter (2 analysts)$6.5012410.0%
Last Year (2 analysts)$6.5012410.0%
Current Price$2.90
Analyst Ratings
10
2
Buy: 10Hold: 2Consensus: Buy
Consensus Estimates
QuarterRevenueEBITDANet IncEPSEPS Range# Analysts
2025 Q30M0M-3M$-0.07$-0.07 – $-0.071
2025 Q40M0M-6M$-0.06$-0.07 – $-0.052
2026 Q10M0M-4M$-0.05$-0.06 – $-0.055
2026 Q20M0M-5M$-0.05$-0.07 – $-0.045
2026 Q30M0M-6M$-0.06$-0.06 – $-0.055
2026 Q40M0M-7M$-0.07$-0.07 – $-0.071
2027 Q10M0M-10M$-0.10$-0.10 – $-0.101
2027 Q20M0M-12M$-0.12$-0.12 – $-0.121
2027 Q30M0M-10M$-0.10$-0.10 – $-0.101
2027 Q40M0M-10M$-0.10$-0.10 – $-0.101

Corporate

Executive Compensation (2023-2025)

Direct Pay$7.4M
Incentive & Other$11.0M
Total Compensation$18.4M
% of Revenue26.9%

Insider Trading (last 12mo)

Open-market only (Form 4 P-Purchase + S-Sale). Excludes grants, option exercises, tax withholding, gifts.
Officers & directors
Buys ($, 12mo)
$0
0 txns · 0 insiders · 0 sh
Sells ($, 12mo)
$1.53M
8 txns · 2 insiders · 823,740 sh
Recent transactions
DateSideInsiderTitleSharesPriceDollarsOwned $
2026-03-13SELLZedelmayer Christineofficer: Sr. Vice President and COO120,312$2.50$301K$156K
2026-03-09SELLZedelmayer Christineofficer: Sr. Vice President and COO181,219$2.00$362K$125K
2026-02-19SELLZedelmayer Christineofficer: Sr. Vice President and COO371,874$1.76$656K$161K
2026-01-08SELLTom Pennyofficer: Principal Accounting Officer6,533$1.29$8K$0
2025-12-23SELLZedelmayer Christineofficer: Sr. Vice President and COO100,000$1.50$150K$137K
2025-12-15SELLZedelmayer Christineofficer: Sr. Vice President and COO11,900$1.31$16K$120K
2025-12-12SELLZedelmayer Christineofficer: Sr. Vice President and COO23,804$1.34$32K$138K
2025-11-25SELLZedelmayer Christineofficer: Sr. Vice President and COO8,098$0.95$8K$121K

Order Flow (FINRA, ~3w lag)

32.1%retail-5.1pp
26.5%dark+1.6pp
week of 2026-04-13
0%20%40%60%24-1125-0225-0525-0825-1126-0226-04retail (non-ATS)dark (ATS)
Off-exchange volume from FINRA. Retail = non-ATS (wholesaler PFOF + broker internalization). Dark = ATS (dark-pool crossing networks, institutional). Lit-exchange = remainder.

Revenue Breakdown

Revenue Segments

By Product (2024-Q3)
Upfront Payment Amortization$1.0MNEW

Filing Risk Analysis

Filing Risk Scores

Equillium, Inc.: A Dilution Machine Disguised as a Biotech Pipeline

Overall Risk
7/10
Fraud
3/10
Dilution
9/10
Insolvency
6/10
Earnings Overstated
2/10
Hidden Liabilities
4/10
Legal
3/10
Audit Warnings
5/10
Hidden Upside
6/10
Contextually Acceptable
4/10

Counter-Thesis

Counter-Thesis & Recent News

📰 Recent News

In February 2026, Stifel initiated coverage on Equillium with a 'Buy' rating and a $5.00 price target, highlighting the potential of EQ504 in the inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) market. The company recently secured a strategic $50 million financing agreement to advance EQ504 into Phase 1 clinical trials by mid-2026. Despite a 2025 FDA setback for itolizumab in acute graft-versus-host disease (aGVHD), the company is pivoting toward its multi-cytokine platform and reporting positive long-term (Day 99) response data that contradicts the failed 29-day primary endpoint (Source: Investing.com, Seeking Alpha).

🐻 Bear Case

The bear case centers on the FDA's 2025 refusal to grant Breakthrough Therapy designation for itolizumab after it missed its primary endpoint in the Phase 3 EQUATOR study. Shorts are betting on a complete depletion of cash, citing a historical burn rate that previously estimated a runway only into Q3 2025. Furthermore, the 15% estimated probability of approval for its celiac disease treatment and recent insider selling (including a 49% stake reduction by the COO in Feb 2026) fuel the narrative of a failing biotech (Source: MarketBeat, Public.com).

🚩 Red Flags

High cash burn remains the primary concern, with the company historically categorized as 'Ultra Expensive' relative to its negative earnings. Recent insider transactions show significant selling by high-level executives in early 2026, which often signals a lack of confidence in near-term milestones. Additionally, the FDA's rigid focus on Day 29 outcomes for aGVHD suggests a difficult regulatory path regardless of longer-term efficacy claims (Source: AAII, Business Wire).

⚔️ Competitive Threats

Equillium faces intense competition from established biologics like adalimumab (Humira), which is the current standard of care in the IBD space. While itolizumab showed a 23.3% clinical remission rate vs. 20% for adalimumab in trials, competing against well-funded pharmaceutical giants in the saturated autoimmune market requires massive commercial infrastructure that Equillium currently lacks (Source: Equillium IR, Investing.com).

💬 Customer Sentiment

Clinical trial data suggests a potential 'underground' success; while the drug failed short-term endpoints, 63.3% of patients in ulcerative colitis trials showed clinical response, outperforming active controls. There is a documented need among physicians for safer alternatives to current steroids and biologics, and Equillium's focus on long-term responders (Day 99) appeals to clinicians looking for durable remission rather than transient 29-day spikes (Source: Clinical Trials Arena, Intellectia.AI).