Equillium, Inc., a clinical-stage biotechnology company, develops and sells products to treat severe autoimmune and inflammatory, or immuno-inflammatory disorders with unmet medical need. The company's lead product candidate is itolizumab (EQ001), a clinical-stage monoclonal antibody that targets the novel immune checkpoint receptor CD6, which is in Phase III clinical trials for the treatment of acute graft-versus-host disease; completed Phase Ib clinical trial for the treatment of asthma diseas
2-Year Price History
Quarterly Financials & Projections
| Period | Rev | EBITDA | OpIn | NI | OCF | FCF | CapEx | Cash | Debt | Shares | ROIC | IntCov | EV/EBITDA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Est | 2027-Q3 | 1.0 | -8.0 | -- | -8.0 | -- | -7.5 | -0.1 | 1.8 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q2 | 0.5 | -8.0 | -- | -8.0 | -- | -7.5 | -0.1 | 9.3 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q1 | 0.5 | -8.0 | -- | -8.0 | -- | -7.5 | -0.1 | 16.8 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q4 | 0.5 | -8.0 | -- | -8.0 | -- | -7.5 | -0.1 | 24.3 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q3 | 0.1 | -8.5 | -- | -8.5 | -- | -8.0 | -0.1 | 31.8 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q2 | 0.1 | -8.0 | -- | -8.0 | -- | -7.5 | -0.1 | 39.8 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q1 | 0.1 | -7.5 | -- | -7.5 | -- | -7.0 | -0.1 | 47.3 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Act | 2026-Q1 | 0.0 | -5.6 | -5.6 | -5.3 | -4.3 | -4.3 | -0.0 | 61.3 | 0.7 | 96.3 | -41.3% | -- | -- |
| Est | 2025-Q4 | 0.1 | -7.5 | -- | -7.5 | -- | -7.0 | -0.1 | 54.3 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Act | 2025-Q4 | 0.0 | -3.9 | -4.0 | -3.8 | -3.1 | -3.2 | -0.0 | 30.3 | 0.7 | 91.9 | -66.4% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2025-Q3 | 0.0 | -4.2 | -4.6 | -4.2 | -8.4 | -8.4 | -0.0 | 33.1 | 0.7 | 35.7 | -68.7% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2025-Q2 | 0.0 | -6.2 | -6.2 | -5.7 | -3.0 | -3.0 | -0.0 | 11.5 | 0.3 | 35.7 | <-999% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2025-Q1 | 0.0 | -8.8 | -8.9 | -8.7 | -8.2 | -8.2 | -0.0 | 14.5 | 0.3 | 35.6 | <-999% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2024-Q4 | 4.4 | -5.4 | -4.7 | -5.8 | -3.3 | -3.3 | -0.0 | 22.6 | 0.4 | 35.4 | <-999% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2024-Q3 | 12.2 | 0.0 | -0.7 | -0.0 | -7.7 | -7.7 | -0.0 | 25.9 | 0.5 | 35.4 | -106.1% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2024-Q2 | 13.9 | -0.1 | -0.1 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | -0.1 | 33.3 | 0.6 | 36.6 | -20.5% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2024-Q1 | 10.7 | -2.8 | -2.8 | -2.7 | -8.8 | -8.8 | -0.0 | 32.3 | 0.7 | 35.3 | <-999% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2023-Q4 | 9.2 | -2.3 | -3.2 | -2.3 | -5.7 | -5.7 | -0.0 | 40.9 | 0.8 | 35.2 | <-999% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2023-Q3 | 8.9 | -3.2 | -3.6 | -3.7 | -1.9 | -1.9 | -0.0 | 46.3 | 0.9 | 34.9 | <-999% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2023-Q2 | 9.1 | -3.0 | -3.6 | -3.3 | -6.2 | -6.2 | -0.0 | 48.4 | 1.0 | 34.5 | <-999% | -11.8x | -- |
| Act | 2023-Q1 | 8.9 | -3.6 | -4.1 | -3.9 | -8.0 | -8.0 | -0.0 | 62.0 | 8.7 | 34.4 | -168.9% | -15.6x | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q4 | 15.8 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 27.7 | 27.7 | -0.0 | 71.0 | 10.2 | 34.4 | 58.5% | 11.3x | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q3 | 0.0 | -13.4 | -13.2 | -13.7 | -13.1 | -13.1 | -0.0 | 44.5 | 12.1 | 34.4 | -437.7% | -50.0x | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q2 | 0.0 | -13.8 | -13.6 | -14.1 | -11.3 | -11.3 | -0.1 | 57.6 | 12.2 | 34.3 | -325.6% | -53.4x | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q1 | 0.0 | -37.1 | -37.3 | -37.4 | -12.1 | -12.4 | -0.2 | 68.8 | 12.2 | 31.9 | -509.8% | -145.6x | -- |
Multiples vs the company's own history — cheap or rich relative to itself? Historical fiscal years, then TTM, then forward projections (E). Forward rows hold today's price against projected earnings, so the multiple compresses if the company grows into it.
| Year | Price | Rev Gr | EBITDA % | EBITDA | EV/EBITDA | EV/FCF | P/E | P/S |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 1.06 | — | -388.7% | -61 | n/m | n/m | n/m | 4.9× |
| 2023 | 0.72 | +129.0% | -33.6% | -12 | — | — | n/m | 0.7× |
| 2024 | 0.75 | +13.9% | -19.9% | -8 | n/m | n/m | n/m | 0.7× |
| 2025 | 1.55 | -100.0% | — | -23 | n/m | n/m | n/m | — |
| TTM | 2.90 | -100.0% | — | -20 | 0.0× | 0.0× | 0.0× | — |
| 2026E | 2.90 | — | -40.0% | -0 | 0.0× | 0.0× | 0.0× | 0.0× |
EBITDA in reporting-currency $M. Historical multiples use year-end market cap (split-adjusted price history); TTM & forward years use today's.
AI Analysis
LLM Evaluations
Equillium is a pre-revenue clinical-stage biotech with zero near-term revenue after losing its only revenue streams, an accumulated deficit of $212M, approximately 17 months of cash runway, and a massive dilution overhang where reserved shares exceed outstanding shares by 2.3x. The pivot to EQ504 is essentially a restart — Phase 1 trials won't begin until mid-2026, meaning any meaningful data readout is 2+ years away. The $50M financing deal is heavily dilutive and contingent on milestones that may never be hit. Insider selling by the COO immediately after the capital raise is a significant red flag. While EQ504's multi-cytokine platform has theoretical promise in IBD, the company lacks the capital, infrastructure, and regulatory track record to compete against entrenched biologics. At $1.77/share with 35.7M shares outstanding (and 81.5M reserved), the fully diluted market cap approaches $200M+ for a company with no revenue, no approved product, and a failed Phase 3 in its lead indication. This is a capital destruction machine for equity holders.
Valuation & Metrics
Market Stats
TTM Financial Snapshot
DCF Fair Value Estimate
Forward Outlook & Risk
Short Interest
Options
| Strike | Call Bid/Ask | Call OI | Put Bid/Ask | Put OI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $2.50 | $0.30/$0.55 | 386 | --/$1.90 | 13 |
| $5.00 | --/$0.55 | 1 | $1.50/$4.10 | 0 |
| $7.50 | --/$1.95 | 0 | $4.00/$6.60 | 1 |
Forward Projections & Estimates
Employees
Cash Runway
Institutional Ownership
Headline & net flow
In Q1 2026 so far (quarter still filing), institutions are net buyers — bought 46.4% of float, sold 18.5%. 7 filers moved >1% of shares (5 buying, 2 selling).
Ownership composition
Top holders
| Fund | $ value | Cost basis | Δ QoQ | Δ YoY | α life | Fund AUM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JANUS HENDERSON GROUP PLC | $13.0M | $1.59 | +$1.3M | +$13.0M | +1.2% | $209.29B |
| ADAGE CAPITAL PARTNERS GP, L.L.C. | $10.7M | $1.43 | +$0 | +$10.7M | -0.1% | $64.61B |
| Decheng Capital LLC | $8.9M | $0.72 | +$0 | +$0 | -1.7% | $661M |
| ADAR1 Capital Management, LLC | $7.5M | $1.46 | −$3.8M | +$7.5M | +8.3% | $1.64B |
| Woodline Partners LP | $7.0M | $1.43 | +$0 | +$7.0M | -0.1% | $26.43B |
| Aberdeen Group plc | $6.7M | $1.67 | +$2.0M | +$6.7M | -0.6% | $61.88B |
| RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | $6.2M | $2.00 | +$6.2M | +$6.2M | -4.4% | $9.44B |
| VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLCPassive | $3.6M | $2.00 | +$3.6M | +$3.6M | — | $4.04T |
| BALYASNY ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | $3.3M | $1.43 | −$875K | +$3.3M | -0.4% | $48.01B |
| Eversept Partners, LP | $3.0M | $2.00 | +$3.0M | +$3.0M | -0.3% | $1.52B |
| Affinity Asset Advisors, LLC | $2.5M | $2.00 | +$2.5M | +$2.5M | +0.5% | $1.60B |
| RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC | $1.3M | $1.06 | −$153K | +$775K | +1.2% | $63.91B |
| DIADEMA PARTNERS LP | $868K | $1.56 | +$173K | +$868K | +2.6% | $224M |
| Hudson Bay Capital Management LP | $857K | $1.47 | +$0 | +$857K | +1.9% | $15.12B |
| GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLCPassive | $758K | $1.56 | +$67K | +$347K | +2.3% | $1.61T |
| Ikarian Capital, LLC | $607K | $1.43 | +$0 | +$607K | -8.9% | $698M |
| CANTOR FITZGERALD, L. P. | $525K | $1.46 | −$600K | +$525K | -3.1% | $2.75B |
| TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP | $492K | $1.48 | −$157K | +$492K | -0.9% | $117.03B |
| JANE STREET GROUP, LLCMM | $442K | $1.88 | +$241K | +$442K | -0.1% | $92.10B |
| VANGUARD FIDUCIARY TRUST COPassive | $379K | $2.00 | +$379K | +$379K | — | $395.83B |
Trading behavior
▸ Compare to holder-profile behavior (across all their stocks)
Biggest decreases this quarter
New buyers this quarter
Top-5 holders · 58.0%
Top Holders Over Time
5-year share-count history (top 10 holders by peak, incl. exited) + price
Analyst Coverage
| Quarter | Revenue | EBITDA | Net Inc | EPS | EPS Range | # Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q3 | 0M | 0M | -3M | $-0.07 | $-0.07 – $-0.07 | 1 |
| 2025 Q4 | 0M | 0M | -6M | $-0.06 | $-0.07 – $-0.05 | 2 |
| 2026 Q1 | 0M | 0M | -4M | $-0.05 | $-0.06 – $-0.05 | 5 |
| 2026 Q2 | 0M | 0M | -5M | $-0.05 | $-0.07 – $-0.04 | 5 |
| 2026 Q3 | 0M | 0M | -6M | $-0.06 | $-0.06 – $-0.05 | 5 |
| 2026 Q4 | 0M | 0M | -7M | $-0.07 | $-0.07 – $-0.07 | 1 |
| 2027 Q1 | 0M | 0M | -10M | $-0.10 | $-0.10 – $-0.10 | 1 |
| 2027 Q2 | 0M | 0M | -12M | $-0.12 | $-0.12 – $-0.12 | 1 |
| 2027 Q3 | 0M | 0M | -10M | $-0.10 | $-0.10 – $-0.10 | 1 |
| 2027 Q4 | 0M | 0M | -10M | $-0.10 | $-0.10 – $-0.10 | 1 |
Corporate
Executive Compensation (2023-2025)
Insider Trading (last 12mo)
| Date | Side | Insider | Title | Shares | Price | Dollars | Owned $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-13 | SELL | Zedelmayer Christine | officer: Sr. Vice President and COO | 120,312 | $2.50 | $301K | $156K |
| 2026-03-09 | SELL | Zedelmayer Christine | officer: Sr. Vice President and COO | 181,219 | $2.00 | $362K | $125K |
| 2026-02-19 | SELL | Zedelmayer Christine | officer: Sr. Vice President and COO | 371,874 | $1.76 | $656K | $161K |
| 2026-01-08 | SELL | Tom Penny | officer: Principal Accounting Officer | 6,533 | $1.29 | $8K | $0 |
| 2025-12-23 | SELL | Zedelmayer Christine | officer: Sr. Vice President and COO | 100,000 | $1.50 | $150K | $137K |
| 2025-12-15 | SELL | Zedelmayer Christine | officer: Sr. Vice President and COO | 11,900 | $1.31 | $16K | $120K |
| 2025-12-12 | SELL | Zedelmayer Christine | officer: Sr. Vice President and COO | 23,804 | $1.34 | $32K | $138K |
| 2025-11-25 | SELL | Zedelmayer Christine | officer: Sr. Vice President and COO | 8,098 | $0.95 | $8K | $121K |
Order Flow (FINRA, ~3w lag)
Revenue Breakdown
Revenue Segments
| Upfront Payment Amortization | $1.0M | NEW |
Filing Risk Analysis
Filing Risk Scores
Equillium, Inc.: A Dilution Machine Disguised as a Biotech Pipeline
Counter-Thesis
Counter-Thesis & Recent News
In February 2026, Stifel initiated coverage on Equillium with a 'Buy' rating and a $5.00 price target, highlighting the potential of EQ504 in the inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) market. The company recently secured a strategic $50 million financing agreement to advance EQ504 into Phase 1 clinical trials by mid-2026. Despite a 2025 FDA setback for itolizumab in acute graft-versus-host disease (aGVHD), the company is pivoting toward its multi-cytokine platform and reporting positive long-term (Day 99) response data that contradicts the failed 29-day primary endpoint (Source: Investing.com, Seeking Alpha).
The bear case centers on the FDA's 2025 refusal to grant Breakthrough Therapy designation for itolizumab after it missed its primary endpoint in the Phase 3 EQUATOR study. Shorts are betting on a complete depletion of cash, citing a historical burn rate that previously estimated a runway only into Q3 2025. Furthermore, the 15% estimated probability of approval for its celiac disease treatment and recent insider selling (including a 49% stake reduction by the COO in Feb 2026) fuel the narrative of a failing biotech (Source: MarketBeat, Public.com).
High cash burn remains the primary concern, with the company historically categorized as 'Ultra Expensive' relative to its negative earnings. Recent insider transactions show significant selling by high-level executives in early 2026, which often signals a lack of confidence in near-term milestones. Additionally, the FDA's rigid focus on Day 29 outcomes for aGVHD suggests a difficult regulatory path regardless of longer-term efficacy claims (Source: AAII, Business Wire).
Equillium faces intense competition from established biologics like adalimumab (Humira), which is the current standard of care in the IBD space. While itolizumab showed a 23.3% clinical remission rate vs. 20% for adalimumab in trials, competing against well-funded pharmaceutical giants in the saturated autoimmune market requires massive commercial infrastructure that Equillium currently lacks (Source: Equillium IR, Investing.com).
Clinical trial data suggests a potential 'underground' success; while the drug failed short-term endpoints, 63.3% of patients in ulcerative colitis trials showed clinical response, outperforming active controls. There is a documented need among physicians for safer alternatives to current steroids and biologics, and Equillium's focus on long-term responders (Day 99) appeals to clinicians looking for durable remission rather than transient 29-day spikes (Source: Clinical Trials Arena, Intellectia.AI).