EDN
Empresa Distribuidora y Comercializadora Norte Sociedad AnónimaEmpresa Distribuidora y Comercializadora Norte Sociedad Anónima engages in the distribution and sale of electricity in Argentina. The company was incorporated in 1992 and is based in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Empresa Distribuidora y Comercializadora Norte Sociedad Anónima is a subsidiary of Empresa de EnergÃa del Cono Sur S.A.
2-Year Price History
Quarterly Financials & Projections
| Period | Rev | EBITDA | OpIn | NI | OCF | FCF | CapEx | Cash | Debt | Shares | ROIC | IntCov | EV/EBITDA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Est | 2027-Q3 | 960,000 | 240,000 | -- | 86,400 | -- | 153,600 | -153,600 | 1,406,976 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q2 | 800,000 | 248,000 | -- | 104,000 | -- | 48,000 | -104,000 | 1,253,376 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q1 | 810,000 | 186,300 | -- | 64,800 | -- | 89,100 | -97,200 | 1,205,376 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q4 | 880,000 | 167,200 | -- | 57,200 | -- | 52,800 | -149,600 | 1,116,276 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q3 | 850,000 | 195,500 | -- | 68,000 | -- | 127,500 | -144,500 | 1,063,476 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q2 | 710,000 | 213,000 | -- | 85,200 | -- | 28,400 | -92,300 | 935,976 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q1 | 720,000 | 158,400 | -- | 50,400 | -- | 72,000 | -86,400 | 907,576 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2025-Q4 | 790,000 | 142,200 | -- | 47,400 | -- | 39,500 | -142,200 | 835,576 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Act | 2025-Q4 | 872,554 | 253,036 | 45,865 | 59,775 | 1,623 | -206,153 | -124,423 | 796,076 | 1,173,011 | 43.8 | 3.8% | 3.8x | 1.6x |
| Act | 2025-Q3 | 740,837 | 152,151 | 62,870 | 40,638 | 28,194 | 100,147 | -142,204 | 484,810 | 811,600 | 43.8 | 9.3% | 2.7x | 3.2x |
| Act | 2025-Q2 | 622,989 | 248,172 | 9,708 | 92,934 | 33,451 | -132,958 | -78,969 | 387,477 | 554,599 | 43.8 | 1.1% | 3.3x | 2.9x |
| Act | 2025-Q1 | 638,535 | 133,608 | 23,085 | 35,911 | 74,465 | 3,658 | -63,235 | 372,403 | 453,337 | 43.8 | 4.6% | 2.3x | 4.6x |
| Act | 2024-Q4 | 630,489 | 64,519 | 15,223 | 37,059 | 113,461 | -42,832 | -127,149 | 397,468 | 476,362 | 43.8 | 3.3% | 2.0x | 2.8x |
| Act | 2024-Q3 | 555,788 | 266,968 | 6,719 | 114,438 | 60,176 | -93,719 | -106,478 | 253,026 | 329,029 | 43.8 | 1.3% | 7.3x | 2.5x |
| Act | 2024-Q2 | 608,876 | 187,548 | 61,736 | 67,746 | 44,271 | -135,022 | -83,635 | 177,025 | 218,522 | 43.8 | 24.0% | 2.2x | 1.6x |
| Act | 2024-Q1 | 456,504 | 4,138 | -36,706 | 120,369 | 27,310 | -25,516 | -43,838 | 169,517 | 185,093 | 43.8 | -17.8% | 19.5x | 2.4x |
| Act | 2023-Q4 | 356,390 | -65,600 | -133,815 | 27,901 | 47,777 | -87,638 | -128,144 | 91,756 | 97,920 | 43.8 | -114.5% | -156.1x | 1.5x |
| Act | 2023-Q3 | 427,332 | 618,029 | 1,927 | 234,941 | 28,772 | -12,990 | -33,400 | 60,028 | 42,954 | 43.8 | 1.8% | 4174.0x | 1.8x |
| Act | 2023-Q2 | 421,969 | -38,615 | -75,921 | -25,642 | 12,863 | -12,561 | -17,148 | 42,108 | 30,312 | 43.8 | -219.0% | -234.3x | -- |
| Act | 2023-Q1 | 321,044 | -28,688 | -53,042 | -45,813 | 1,594 | -13,515 | -8,918 | 37,471 | 25,218 | 43.8 | -200.9% | -1448.5x | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q4 | 317,420 | -22,343 | -51,785 | -11,254 | 12,923 | -9,334 | -15,907 | 94,455 | 47,392 | 43.8 | -54.3% | -89.9x | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q3 | 113,333 | -422.0 | -14,506 | -14,527 | 7,678 | -2,718 | -8,071 | 31,021 | 16,351 | 43.8 | -90.9% | -2.9x | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q2 | 133,381 | -18,728 | -27,124 | -21,491 | 9,535 | 1,415 | -5,448 | 25,568 | 10,460 | 43.8 | -242.2% | -173.4x | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q1 | 76,860 | 1,939 | -3,896 | -7,126 | 5,290 | 1,435 | -2,300 | 21,536 | 11,722 | 43.8 | -40.4% | 24.9x | -- |
Multiples vs the company's own history — cheap or rich relative to itself? Historical fiscal years, then TTM, then forward projections (E). Forward rows hold today's price against projected earnings, so the multiple compresses if the company grows into it.
| Year | Price | Rev Gr | EBITDA % | EBITDA | EV/EBITDA | EV/FCF | P/E | P/S |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 7.99 | — | -6.2% | -39,554 | — | — | n/m | 0.0× |
| 2023 | 19.37 | +138.2% | 31.8% | 485,126 | 0.0× | n/m | 0.0× | 0.0× |
| 2024 | 42.91 | +47.5% | 23.2% | 523,173 | 0.1× | n/m | 0.0× | 0.0× |
| 2025 | 29.96 | +27.7% | 27.4% | 786,967 | 0.5× | n/m | 0.0× | 0.0× |
| TTM | 27.64 | +27.7% | 27.4% | 786,967 | 0.0× | 0.0× | 0.0× | 0.0× |
| 2026E | 27.64 | +9.9% | 0.2% | 7,341 | 0.0× | 0.0× | 0.0× | 0.0× |
EBITDA in reporting-currency $M. Historical multiples use year-end market cap (split-adjusted price history); TTM & forward years use today's.
AI Analysis
LLM Evaluations
Edenor is a turnaround story driven by Argentina's tariff normalization under the Milei administration. The company has swung from persistent losses to meaningful profitability, with EBITDA margins normalizing above 20% and the CAMMESA debt overhang being resolved. At ~9x trailing FCF and 0.65x P/S, the stock prices in significant political risk but offers asymmetric upside if the tariff regime remains intact. However, this is fundamentally a bet on Argentine macro stability and political continuity — the business has zero pricing power independent of regulators, operates with persistent negative working capital, weak governance (no insider trading policy), and faces hyperinflationary accounting that obscures true economics. The recent credit upgrades and operational improvements (SAIDI down 75%, collectibility at 95.75%) are genuine positives, but the stock deserves a substantial country/regulatory risk discount. Moderately attractive for risk-tolerant investors willing to bet on Argentina's reform trajectory.
Valuation & Metrics
Market Stats
TTM Financial Snapshot
DCF Fair Value Estimate
Forward Outlook & Risk
Short Interest
Forward Projections & Estimates
Employees
Cash Runway
Institutional Ownership
Headline & net flow
In Q1 2026 so far (quarter still filing), institutions are net sellers — bought 2.5% of float, sold 6.8%.
Ownership composition
Top holders
| Fund | $ value | Cost basis | Δ QoQ | Δ YoY | α life | Fund AUM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Helikon Investments Ltd | $40.0M | $26.00 | −$8.1M | −$21.0M | +6.0% | $2.65B |
| MIRAE ASSET GLOBAL ETFS HOLDINGS Ltd. | $14.8M | $30.41 | +$1.4M | −$3.1M | +1.7% | $73.71B |
| MORGAN STANLEY | $4.8M | $27.24 | +$560K | +$964K | -0.3% | $1.65T |
| PING CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, INC. | $2.3M | $19.76 | +$751K | +$1.6M | +7.5% | $259M |
| GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC | $2.0M | $22.19 | −$382K | +$2.0M | -0.2% | $760.93B |
| UBS Group AG | $1.8M | $34.97 | +$1.3M | +$251K | -0.3% | $562.11B |
| WEXFORD CAPITAL LP | $1.5M | $30.02 | +$1.5M | +$1.5M | +0.5% | $607M |
| MARSHALL WACE, LLP | $720K | $22.86 | +$406K | +$720K | +0.6% | $92.71B |
| JPMORGAN CHASE & CO | $504K | $15.90 | +$270K | −$2.0M | -0.2% | $1.47T |
| STATE OF WISCONSIN INVESTMENT BOARD | $474K | $29.96 | +$0 | +$474K | -0.2% | $43.36B |
| Militia Capital Management LLC | $447K | $30.02 | +$447K | +$447K | — | $435M |
| SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLPMM | $234K | $30.02 | −$344K | +$234K | — | $77.14B |
| VAN ECK ASSOCIATES CORP | $80K | $30.00 | +$49K | +$80K | +0.8% | $133.17B |
| BNP PARIBAS FINANCIAL MARKETS | $55K | $25.73 | −$7.9M | −$1.1M | -0.2% | $149.31B |
| THURSTON, SPRINGER, MILLER, HERD & TITAK, INC. | $50K | $33.63 | +$2K | −$133K | -0.1% | $242M |
| BARCLAYS PLC | $41K | $18.98 | +$5K | +$41K | -0.1% | $279.69B |
| WELLS FARGO & COMPANY/MN | $30K | $16.10 | −$17K | +$0 | -0.2% | $497.71B |
| GAMMA Investing LLC | $17K | $30.33 | −$5K | −$24K | -0.5% | $2.14B |
| CWM, LLC | $16K | $29.96 | +$0 | +$16K | -0.1% | $37.83B |
| SBI Securities Co., Ltd. | $9K | $38.53 | +$6K | +$6K | +0.9% | $3.62B |
Trading behavior
▸ Compare to holder-profile behavior (across all their stocks)
Biggest decreases this quarter
New buyers this quarter
Top-5 holders · 91.4%
Top Holders Over Time
5-year share-count history (top 10 holders by peak, incl. exited) + price
Analyst Coverage
| Quarter | Revenue | EBITDA | Net Inc | EPS | EPS Range | # Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 Q1 | 335.5B | 149.2B | -26.8B | $-612.69 | $-612.69 – $-612.69 | 1 |
| 2027 Q2 | 365.7B | 162.6B | -4.3B | $-98.87 | $-98.87 – $-98.87 | 1 |
| 2027 Q3 | 878.1B | 390.4B | -21.7B | $-496.40 | $-496.40 – $-496.40 | 1 |
| 2028 Q1 | 549.1B | 244.1B | 0M | $0.00 | $0.00 – $0.00 | 0 |
| 2028 Q2 | 645.6B | 287.0B | 22.3B | $508.55 | $508.55 – $508.55 | 1 |
| 2028 Q3 | 185.4B | 82.4B | -4638.2B | $-105933.65 | $-105933.65 – $-105933.65 | 1 |
| 2028 Q4 | 336.8B | 149.8B | -3030.9B | $-69223.14 | $-69223.14 – $-69223.14 | 1 |
| 2029 Q1 | 529.2B | 235.3B | -2822.1B | $-64455.36 | $-64455.36 – $-64455.36 | 1 |
| 2029 Q2 | 698.0B | 310.4B | -485.1B | $-11078.48 | $-11078.48 – $-11078.48 | 1 |
| 2029 Q3 | 676.7B | 300.9B | -5110.5B | $-116720.23 | $-116720.23 – $-116720.23 | 1 |
Corporate
Order Flow (FINRA, ~3w lag)
Filing Risk Analysis
Filing Risk Scores
EDENOR: A state-dependent utility caught between hyperinflationary accounting chaos and a lack of basic governance safeguards.
Counter-Thesis
Counter-Thesis & Recent News
Edenor reported a massive financial turnaround for FY2025, swinging to a net profit of ARS 239.2 billion compared to significant losses in 2024. This recovery was fueled by a 319.2% tariff normalization in February 2024 and subsequent monthly adjustments of approximately 3.1%. EBITDA for 2025 surged 110% YoY to ARS 572 billion, aided by a regularization agreement with CAMMESA (wholesale power administrator) that cleared substantial liabilities. S&P, Moody's, and Fitch have recently upgraded the company's credit ratings following improved liquidity and debt profiles (Source: Stock Titan, March 2026; Seeking Alpha).
The primary short thesis rests on Argentina's volatile macro environment and the political sustainability of high utility tariffs. Bears argue that if inflation re-accelerates or the Milei administration's popularity wanes, the government may freeze tariffs again to appease voters, crushing EDN's margins. Additionally, the contraction in industrial activity (down 7.9% in the manufacturing sector through 2025) could dampen energy demand from high-margin commercial clients (Source: Buenos Aires Herald; PIIE).
Non-technical energy losses remain high at 15.7%, indicating persistent issues with illegal connections and grid inefficiencies. While debt has been restructured, the company still carries approximately $417 million in total debt with $55 million maturing in 2025, making it sensitive to currency fluctuations. Furthermore, short-term liabilities ($974 million) currently exceed short-term assets, posing a liquidity risk if tariff adjustments do not keep pace with costs (Source: WallStreetZen; Intellectia AI).
As a regulated monopoly, direct competition is low; however, Milei’s deregulation (Resolution SE No. 400/2025) is promoting private bilateral contracts (Term Market) and renewable energy expansion. This shift toward a more open market model could eventually allow large industrial users to bypass traditional distributors or negotiate better rates elsewhere, potentially eroding EDN's dominant 20% market share (Source: Strategic Energy Europe).
Customer sentiment is a paradox: while higher tariffs have significantly increased the cost of living, EDN’s service quality is at its 'best in history' with SAIDI (outage duration) falling 75% compared to 2017 levels. Surprisingly, collectibility remains high at 95.75%, suggesting that despite the financial burden, customers are prioritizing payment to maintain reliable service (Source: Edenor Investor Relations; Stock Titan).