Stocks/DNN

DNN

Denison Mines Corp.
Energy·Uranium
$3.48
$3.1B market cap
Claude Rating
4/10UNDERWEIGHT
Revenue
$4.3M
Free Cash Flow
$-145.6M
Rev Growth
-42.2%
FCF Margin
-3357.1%
P/FCF
--
EV/FCF
--
Fwd EV/EBITDA
--
Fair Value
$1.80
Upside
-48.3%

Denison Mines Corp. engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, extraction, processing, selling of, and investing in uranium properties in Canada. Its flagship project is the 95% interest owned Wheeler River uranium project located in the Athabasca Basin region in northern Saskatchewan. The company was formerly known as International Uranium Corporation and changed its name to Denison Mines Corp. in December 2006. Denison Mines Corp. was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Toronto,

2-Year Price History

$3.23+33.5%
$1.5$2.0$2.5$3.0$3.5$4.0volMay 24Sep 24Jan 25May 25Sep 25Jan 26May 26

Quarterly Financials & Projections

Quarterly Waterfall (CAD M)
PeriodRevEBITDAOpInNIOCFFCFCapExCashDebtSharesROICIntCovEV/EBITDA
Est2027-Q41.1-55.0---66.0---71.5-38.573.9----------
Est2027-Q31.0-55.0---70.0---70.0-40.0145.4----------
Est2027-Q21.2-54.0---66.0---72.0-38.4215.4----------
Est2027-Q11.0-50.0---65.0---65.0-35.0287.4----------
Est2026-Q41.1-49.5---60.5---60.5-30.8352.4----------
Est2026-Q31.0-40.0---60.0---50.0-25.0412.9----------
Est2026-Q21.2-38.4---54.0---50.4-21.6462.9----------
Est2026-Q11.1-38.5---55.0---49.5-22.0513.3----------
Act2026-Q10.8-12.3-16.4-82.6-35.6-49.9-14.2562.8731.9903.1-7.1%-1.7x--
Act2025-Q41.2-34.1-23.0-51.3-8.4-39.9-31.4539.0613.9901.6-13.2%-3.3x--
Act2025-Q31.0-124.9-22.1-135.0-19.9-27.7-7.8482.8294.8896.6-21.3%-24.9x--
Act2025-Q21.315.9-18.812.5-23.0-28.3-5.294.20.0903.2-29.9%20.6x--
Act2025-Q11.4-46.4-22.1-43.5-16.9-23.0-6.190.70.0895.8-26.8%-68.2x--
Act2024-Q41.2-27.0-19.3-29.5-8.0-10.6-2.5114.80.0892.2-26.9%-262.1x--
Act2024-Q30.7-23.6-15.8-25.8-12.4-14.6-2.2116.40.0892.2-20.0%-11811.0x--
Act2024-Q21.3-13.8-12.7-16.0-12.3-13.3-0.9128.20.0892.2-14.8%-18.0x37.1x
Act2024-Q10.8-16.5-15.6-19.9-7.7-9.8-2.1141.70.4891.2-17.2%-20.1x23.0x
Act2023-Q4-5.532.6-18.334.5-4.9-6.6-1.7141.50.0848.6-18.3%16.9x17.8x
Act2023-Q30.858.90.058.2-8.6-8.8-0.261.60.3843.30.0%6159.7x23.3x
Act2023-Q20.74.1-7.60.1-9.4-10.1-0.741.50.4845.4-33.5%388.2x--
Act2023-Q1-0.7-0.7-9.0-1.8-7.8-8.5-0.749.30.4832.8-42.3%-0.6x--
Act2022-Q43.0-2.8-7.7-5.7-5.8-6.5-0.658.90.0826.3-15.6%-414.1x74.8x
Act2022-Q32.2-3.8-7.8-4.6-5.0-6.9-1.865.10.6819.2-14.8%-650.9x--
Act2022-Q25.3-11.0-5.9-12.5-9.9-10.7-0.751.50.4817.9-24.4%-1284.5x--
Act2022-Q13.335.0-7.834.1-3.5-6.6-3.067.10.5825.2-25.1%76.5x--

AI Analysis

LLM Evaluations

Claude4/10UNDERWEIGHTFV: $1.80

Denison Mines is a speculative pre-production uranium developer trading at a ~CAD 5B enterprise value with zero economic revenue, accelerating cash burn (~CAD 70-120M/year), a massive US$345M convertible debt overhang, 900M+ diluted shares, and critical execution risk on the Wheeler River ISR project which faces both an unproven extraction method in Athabasca Basin geology and an active Indigenous legal challenge. The CEO departure in early 2026 adds leadership uncertainty at the worst possible time—right before construction decisions. While the secular uranium bull case is real and the company's physical uranium inventory and Wheeler River resource are genuinely valuable, the current market cap prices in near-flawless execution of a multi-year construction timeline that has not yet begun. NAV-based analysis suggests the stock is pricing Wheeler River at a significant premium to risked NPV. The convertible note conversion price of US$2.92 creates a dilution overhang, and the debt-to-equity spike from 0.19 to 1.67 fundamentally changes the risk profile. This is a sell or avoid at current levels—the risk/reward is poor given execution, legal, and dilution risks relative to what's already priced in.

Catalyst Successful resolution of the Peter Ballantyne Cree Nation legal challenge, followed by construction commencement and first uranium production from Wheeler River, combined with sustained uranium prices above $80/lb, would validate the thesis and unlock significant value.
Risk The ISR extraction method is unproven in Athabasca Basin sandstone-hosted deposits at this depth/geology, and failure or significant delays in the technical program would destroy the project's economics and the company's equity value, while $444M in debt remains outstanding.
Trend
DETERIORATING
Mgmt
4/10
Quarter
3/10
Exp. Move
-5.0%

Valuation & Metrics

Market Stats

Price$3.48
Market Cap$3.1B
Enterprise Value$4.5B
P/S Ratio1000.7x
P/FCF--
EV/FCF--
FCF Margin (TTM)-3357.1%
FCF Yield-3.4%
Dividend Yield (TTM)--
Annual Dilution0.8%
CurrencyUSD

TTM Financial Snapshot

Revenue$4.3M
Net Income$-256.3M
Free Cash Flow$-145.6M

Revenue Growth (YoY)-42.2%
EBITDA Margin-3581.2%
Net Margin-5909.1%
FCF Margin-3357.1%
CapEx % of Revenue1351.0%
SBC % of Revenue51.4%
ROIC-17.9%
WC Change % Rev-100.2%
Interest Coverage-6.7x

DCF Fair Value Estimate

$-0.14
-104.1% upside
Fair Enterprise Value$-1.8B
− Net Debt$169M
= Fair Equity$-177M
Revenue Growth-2.3% → 1.0%
FCF Margin-3357.1% → 0.0%
Discount Rate17.0%
Terminal EV/FCF10.0x

Forward Outlook & Risk

Short Interest

Short % of Float8.0%
Short Shares71.7M
Days to Cover3.4
Change (vs Prior)-5.3%
Short % Float History
8.00%+0.50pp
7.0%8.0%9.0%10.0%11.0%12.0%04-3007-1509-1511-1401-1504-30

Options

Call IV (ATM)70%
Put IV (ATM)69%
ATM Spread4.7%
Call $OI (near money)$10.9M
Put $OI (near money)$1.1M
ATM ExpiryJuly 17, 2026 (56D)
ATM Strike$3.0
Major Expirations3
Near-money chain · July 17, 2026
StrikeCall Bid/AskCall OIPut Bid/AskPut OI
$1.50$1.50/$2.0071--/$0.25102
$2.00$1.00/$1.50208--/$0.20267
$2.50$0.75/$0.95491--/$0.15749
$3.00$0.40/$0.55523$0.15/$0.301,762
$3.50$0.20/$0.303,682$0.35/$0.60527
$4.00$0.10/$0.1526,048$0.75/$0.95873
$4.50$0.05/$0.103,243$1.15/$1.4598
$5.00--/$0.1011,906$1.65/$1.90243
Snapshot: 2026-05-22

Forward Projections & Estimates

NTM Revenue Growth+1.4%
Forward FCF Margin-4781.8%
Forward EBITDA Margin-3781.8%
Forward P/FCF--
Forward EV/FCF--
Forward Int. Coverage-4.1x
Model Risk Score9/10
Bankruptcy Odds8%
Est. Borrow Rate12.0%
Terminal EV/FCF10.0x
LT Growth0.0%
LT FCF Margin0.0%

Employees

Headcount65
Revenue / Employee$66,740
Gross Profit / Employee$-197,939
2022: 2 → 2023: 2 → 2024: 2 → 2025: 2 (0% CAGR)

Cash Runway

46.4months
WATCH

Institutional Ownership

Headline & net flow

NET BUYING

In Q1 2026 so far (quarter still filing), institutions are net buyers — bought 9.6% of float, sold 4.4%. 2 filers moved >1% of shares (2 buying, 0 selling).

Net flow · Q1 2026still filing
+5.2% of float (net)
Bought 9.6% · Sold 4.4%
313 filers reported (last quarter: 307)

Ownership composition

Active
55.5%(+37.2% YoY)
274 filers
hedge / family / endowment
Retail funds
Fidelity, Schwab, 401(k)
Passive
0.1%(+0.0% YoY)
3 filers
Vanguard, iShares, SPDR
Market makers
1.3%(+1.0% YoY)
6 filers
Citadel, Susquehanna
Insiders
Form 4 — latest per insider
0%25%50%75%100%2022-062023-032023-122024-092025-062026-03
ActiveRetail fundsPassiveMarket makersRetail direct

Top holders

Fund$ valueCost basisΔ QoQΔ YoYα lifeFund AUM
VAN ECK ASSOCIATES CORP$252M$1.98−$15.5M+$133M+0.8%$133.17B
MIRAE ASSET GLOBAL ETFS HOLDINGS Ltd.$226M$2.16+$18.3M+$20.9M+1.7%$73.71B
ALPS ADVISORS INC$162M$1.33−$6.5M−$41.6M+0.2%$21.23B
Hood River Capital Management LLC$94.7M$1.63−$649K−$245K-1.1%$9.97B
T. Rowe Price Investment Management, Inc.$51.1M$3.53+$51.1M+$51.1M-1.3%$145.22B
Capital Research Global Investors$48.4M$2.12+$20.1M+$17.3M+0.4%$644.55B
TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP$39.9M$2.66−$12.7M+$39.9M-0.7%$117.03B
MORGAN STANLEY$38.8M$2.12+$4.3M+$10.5M-0.3%$1.65T
JANE STREET GROUP, LLCMM$37.3M$2.39+$9.6M+$20.2M-0.1%$92.10B
RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC$33.4M$2.30+$24.5M−$9.3M+1.2%$63.91B
TD ASSET MANAGEMENT INC$32.9M$2.00+$2.5M+$2.4M-0.1%$123.19B
UBS Group AG$29.2M$2.04+$1.9M+$15.9M-0.3%$562.11B
CITADEL ADVISORS LLC$27.8M$2.07+$5.9M−$6.0M-0.4%$138.22B
SCOPUS ASSET MANAGEMENT, L.P.$26.6M$1.86+$0−$725K+1.1%$3.19B
Vident Advisory, LLC$26.4M$1.83+$1.2M+$2.1M-2.3%$11.74B
Connor, Clark & Lunn Investment Management Ltd.$21.0M$1.95−$12.0M−$2.4M-0.2%$43.38B
MILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC$20.5M$2.41+$12.6M+$392K-0.5%$127.40B
ROYAL BANK OF CANADA$20.5M$2.17−$62K+$5.2M-0.2%$526.36B
Goehring & Rozencwajg Associates, LLC$16.7M$1.77+$2.7M+$3.3M+2.2%$1.86B
Merewether Investment Management, LP$14.9M$2.75−$6.0M+$14.9M+3.8%$5.15B
Cost basis is a volume-weighted estimate from accumulation periods within our 13F history; holders who built their position before our window started will show a stale basis. % above the cost basis is the unrealized gain at the current price.

Trading behavior

Smart-money alpha (lifetime, %/qtr)BULLISH
Holders
+0.24%
avg per quarter
Holders (ex-self)
+0.22%
excl. this stock
Buyers (this Q)
-0.07%
139 buyers · $0.38B in
Sellers (this Q)
-0.58%
88 sellers · $-0.07B out
alpha coverage: 100% of $ has a lifetime-alpha record
Holder behavior on this stocksource: stock
On big dips (−10%+)
-5.2%
how holders react when this stock falls
On quiet Qs
-4.9%
−10% to +10% baseline
On rallies (+10%+)
-25.7%
how they react when this stock rises
Holders' portfolio flow this Q
+7.0%
inflows — adds are organic
Sellers' portfolio flow this Q
+16.9%
Sellers grew AUM elsewhere — opinionated cut of this stock.
▸ Compare to holder-profile behavior (across all their stocks)
Holder dip (any stock)
-2.2%
Holder mid (any stock)
-3.2%
Holder rally (any stock)
-4.4%

Top Holders Over Time

5-year share-count history (top 10 holders by peak, incl. exited) + price

062.0M124.1M186.1M248.2M$0.97$1.61$2.25$2.89$3.532021-062022-062023-062024-062025-062026-03
hover the chart for per-quarter detailprice (right axis)
VAN ECK ASSOCIATES CORP71.5MMIRAE ASSET GLOBAL ETFS HOLDINGS Ltd.64.0MALPS ADVISORS INC46.0MHood River Capital Management LLC26.8MMirae Asset Global Investments Co., Ltd.FMR LLCSEGRA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLCMMCAP International Inc. SPC2.9MT. Rowe Price Investment Management, Inc.14.5MCITADEL ADVISORS LLC7.9M

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URGUr-Energy Inc.3453.71×
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Analyst Coverage

Analyst Coverage
Price Targets
Last Year (1 analysts)$4.252210.0%
Current Price$3.48

Corporate

Order Flow (FINRA, ~3w lag)

49.7%retail-6.7pp
14.2%dark+0.4pp
week of 2026-04-13
0%20%40%60%80%24-1125-0225-0525-0825-1126-0226-04retail (non-ATS)dark (ATS)
Off-exchange volume from FINRA. Retail = non-ATS (wholesaler PFOF + broker internalization). Dark = ATS (dark-pool crossing networks, institutional). Lit-exchange = remainder.

Filing Risk Analysis

Filing Risk Scores

Denison Mines Corp.: Derivative Volatility and Synthetic Revenue Masking Accelerated Cash Burn

Overall Risk
7/10
Fraud
2/10
Dilution
8/10
Insolvency
3/10
Earnings Overstated
4/10
Hidden Liabilities
6/10
Legal
5/10
Audit Warnings
3/10
Hidden Upside
7/10
Contextually Acceptable
6/10

Counter-Thesis

Counter-Thesis & Recent News

📰 Recent News

Denison Mines has faced significant leadership and legal turbulence in the first half of 2026. A major 'red flag' occurred on March 3, 2026, when the stock tumbled 7.44% following the sudden announcement of a CEO exit (StockToTrade). Furthermore, the company is currently navigating a pending legal challenge from the Peter Ballantyne Cree Nation regarding provincial environmental assessment approvals for the Wheeler River project, which threatens to delay the 2026 construction timeline (FinancialContent, Nov 2025).

🐻 Bear Case

The bear case centers on extreme valuation and execution risk. DNN is currently a non-producer with a staggering price-to-sales ratio exceeding 500x and a net profit margin of -1,911% as of late 2025 (FinancialContent). The company’s total debt has exploded by over 25,000% in the last year to approximately $444.5 million to fund its transition to construction (FinanceCharts). As a development-stage company, its valuation is entirely speculative, tied to the Phoenix deposit's In-Situ Recovery (ISR) method, which remains a high-stakes, unproven application in the specific geology of the Athabasca Basin.

🚩 Red Flags

Financial metrics are abysmal for a short-term investor: Return on Assets (ROA) is -25.20% and Return on Equity (ROE) is -58.99%, both in the bottom 10% of the industry (FinanceCharts). Despite the 'Buy' consensus among 12 analysts, the stock is technically overvalued by almost every traditional fundamental metric, and the recent massive debt-to-equity ratio spike to 1.67 (up from a 3-year average of 0.19) signals a high-risk leverage profile that could lead to further dilution if construction costs oversubscribe (FinanceCharts).

⚔️ Competitive Threats

Denison faces stiff competition for capital and future utility contracts from more advanced peers like NexGen Energy (NXE) and established giants like Cameco. While DNN fell 3.23% in March 2026, sector-wide declines in peers like Uranium Energy Corp (UEC) and Energy Fuels (UUUU) suggest that any cooling in the 'AI-driven energy' hype could disproportionately crush high-leverage developers like Denison first (StockTitan).

💬 Customer Sentiment

Utility sentiment—the actual 'customers' for uranium—remains cautious regarding new supply timelines. Market reactions to Denison’s construction licensing have been mixed; while the long-term narrative is bullish, immediate investor anxiety is high, as evidenced by the 2.71% drop in the month leading up to November 2025 and subsequent volatility in early 2026 following executive turnover (FinancialContent, StockToTrade).