DANHOS13.MX
Fibra DanhosFibra Danhos is a Mexican trust established primarily to develop, own, lease, operate and acquire iconic and premier quality commercial real estate assets in Mexico. Our goal is to provide attractive risk-adjusted returns for Holders of our CBFIs in the long term, through stable cash distributions and the appreciation of our properties. We will seek to maintain and grow a portfolio of high-quality properties, through our unmatched development capabilities, and the selective acquisition of iconic
2-Year Price History
Quarterly Financials & Projections
| Period | Rev | EBITDA | OpIn | NI | OCF | FCF | CapEx | Cash | Debt | Shares | ROIC | IntCov | EV/EBITDA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Est | 2028-Q1 | 1,980 | 1,505 | -- | 1,188 | -- | 1,505 | -2.0 | 12,522 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q4 | 2,200 | 1,848 | -- | 1,540 | -- | 1,694 | -2.2 | 11,018 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q3 | 2,060 | 1,535 | -- | 1,195 | -- | 1,524 | -2.1 | 9,324 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q2 | 2,020 | 1,475 | -- | 1,131 | -- | 1,515 | -2.0 | 7,799 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q1 | 1,900 | 1,444 | -- | 1,140 | -- | 1,463 | -1.9 | 6,284 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q4 | 2,120 | 1,802 | -- | 1,526 | -- | 1,654 | -2.1 | 4,821 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q3 | 1,980 | 1,465 | -- | 1,148 | -- | 1,465 | -2.0 | 3,168 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q2 | 1,950 | 1,404 | -- | 1,073 | -- | 1,482 | -2.0 | 1,702 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Act | 2026-Q1 | 1,922 | 1,490 | 1,293 | 1,190 | 1,503 | 1,501 | -1.8 | 220.4 | 9.8 | 1,614 | 25.4% | 6.5x | 7.6x |
| Act | 2025-Q4 | 2,047 | 1,899 | 1,349 | 1,569 | 1,647 | 1,647 | -0.0 | 441.3 | 17.9 | 1,609 | 26.7% | 8.1x | 6.7x |
| Act | 2025-Q2 | 1,874 | 1,242 | 1,245 | 961.9 | 1,422 | 1,422 | -0.0 | 353.7 | 14.5 | 1,600 | 26.8% | 6.3x | 6.3x |
| Act | 2025-Q1 | 1,756 | 1,369 | 1,162 | 1,097 | 1,456 | 1,456 | -0.0 | 296.0 | 16.9 | 1,588 | 25.1% | 7.5x | 5.9x |
| Act | 2024-Q4 | 1,923 | 1,989 | 1,265 | 1,712 | 1,681 | 1,681 | -0.0 | 349.9 | 18.6 | 1,588 | 27.6% | 10.8x | 6.2x |
| Act | 2024-Q3 | 1,670 | 1,094 | 1,090 | 946.6 | 1,234 | 1,234 | -0.0 | 383.9 | 19.9 | 1,582 | 25.0% | 7.4x | 7.5x |
| Act | 2024-Q2 | 1,612 | 978.3 | 1,032 | 799.3 | 1,327 | 1,327 | -0.3 | 443.7 | 8,467 | 1,570 | 16.0% | 7.0x | 9.4x |
| Act | 2024-Q1 | 1,570 | 1,012 | 1,012 | 49.7 | 1,178 | 1,177 | -1.8 | 325.4 | 8,141 | 1,570 | 15.8% | 6.4x | 9.9x |
| Act | 2023-Q4 | 1,675 | 1,113 | 1,113 | 788.5 | 1,136 | 2,145 | -1,010 | 639.1 | 24.6 | 1,556 | 21.9% | 6.6x | 7.3x |
| Act | 2023-Q3 | 1,552 | 1,096 | 1,096 | 924.0 | 1,209 | 831.5 | -377.6 | 718.0 | 25.1 | 1,558 | 25.1% | 6.4x | 8.2x |
| Act | 2023-Q2 | 1,514 | 945.2 | 945.2 | 761.5 | 1,070 | 493.1 | -576.6 | 445.9 | 7,589 | 1,553 | 15.0% | 6.2x | 11.7x |
| Act | 2023-Q1 | 1,448 | 942.0 | 942.0 | 776.0 | 1,023 | 963.8 | -59.2 | 221.6 | 6,625 | 1,545 | 15.4% | 6.9x | 11.5x |
| Act | 2022-Q4 | 1,524 | 1,017 | 1,017 | 503.3 | 1,272 | 1,268 | -4.1 | 235.4 | 29.2 | 1,539 | 14.6% | 8.2x | 10.1x |
| Act | 2022-Q3 | 1,349 | 863.4 | 863.4 | 763.9 | 1,070 | 1,063 | -7.5 | 157.6 | 28.4 | 1,542 | 18.4% | 8.7x | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q2 | 1,338 | 887.3 | 887.3 | 794.2 | 1,142 | 1,142 | -0.0 | 405.4 | 6,159 | 1,535 | 14.2% | 9.5x | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q1 | 1,319 | 893.4 | 876.6 | 777.9 | 847.3 | 846.9 | -0.4 | 304.7 | 6,026 | 1,518 | 13.8% | 10.1x | -- |
AI Analysis
LLM Evaluations
Fibra Danhos is a conservatively managed, high-quality Mexican REIT trading at a remarkably cheap 7.1x EV/FCF with an 80%+ FCF margin and 6.5% dividend yield. The balance sheet is fortress-like at 13.6% LTV with a AAA rating, providing significant capacity for the industrial expansion pivot. While growth is decelerating from double-digits to mid-single-digits, the valuation more than compensates — the market is pricing in essentially zero real growth despite a visible pipeline of industrial completions and gradual office recovery. Key risks include FTSE deletion overhang, COFECE legal exposure, and refinancing of DANHOS 16 at higher rates, but none of these threaten the fundamental cash generation engine. At current prices, you're getting a ~14% FCF yield on a premier real estate portfolio in Mexico City with optionality from nearshoring-driven industrial expansion. The stock screens as meaningfully undervalued on almost any reasonable DCF assumption.
Latest Earnings Call
Transcript Summary
Fibra Danhos delivered a solid performance for Q1 2026, with total revenue up 9.4% and NOI increasing 10% year-over-year. The growth was supported by the integration of new industrial assets in Cuautitlan and Palomas, alongside improved occupancy in the office sector, which reached nearly 92% across the total portfolio. AFFO grew 16% to MXN 0.76 per CBFI, supporting a distribution of MXN 0.45. The company’s balance sheet remains remarkably clean with a leverage ratio of 13.6% and a Fitch AAA rating. Management highlighted the industrial sector as a key expansion area, with two major projects due by year-end and others like Parque Oaxaca progressing well. While development is the preferred growth strategy to maximize yields, management is open to selective M&A. The office segment, particularly Toreo, is showing a steady recovery, and management expects continued occupancy gains. Retail operations remain stable with lease spreads outpacing inflation. Despite a flat consumer environment, the firm looks forward to upcoming events like the World Cup to drive traffic. Fibra Danhos is also actively maturing its land bank for future industrial developments in Mexico City, with further updates expected soon.
Valuation & Metrics
Market Stats
TTM Financial Snapshot
DCF Fair Value Estimate
Forward Outlook & Risk
Forward Projections & Estimates
Employees
Corporate
Dividends
Counter-Thesis
Counter-Thesis & Recent News
In March 2026, Fibra Danhos was removed from the FTSE All-World Index, significantly reducing passive institutional demand and liquidity. Most recently, on April 23, 2026, the company reported Q1 2026 revenue of Mex$1.92b, which missed analyst estimates by 4.3%, triggering a 2.4% drop in share price within a week. Additionally, on March 26, 2026, the company announced it is pursuing a legal defense against a resolution from Mexico's Antimonopoly Commission (COFECE) regarding rent renegotiations conducted during the COVID-19 pandemic.
The primary bear case rests on slowing fundamentals and earnings contraction. Consensus estimates for 2026 project an 8.9% decrease in Earnings Per Share (EPS) to Mex$2.89. Revenue growth is forecast to stall at roughly 4.5% annually through 2026, a sharp decline from the historical 11% CAGR. Furthermore, the company faces imminent refinancing risk for its 'DANHOS 16' debt maturity in June 2026, which may occur at higher prevailing interest rates, potentially squeezing the already narrowing distribution margins.
Dividend stability is a growing concern; the 3-year average dividend growth rate is negative (-1.86%), and the company has a low 'Dividend Sustainability Score' according to market analysts. The ongoing regulatory investigation/resolution by the Antimonopoly Commission introduces tail risk and potential legal liabilities that remain unquantified. Institutional selling pressure is expected to continue following the FTSE index deletion.
While Danhos is attempting to pivot into the industrial sector to capture 'nearshoring' demand, it remains heavily concentrated in retail and offices. It faces stiff competition from specialized industrial REITs like Fibra Prologis and Fibra MQ, which have established footprints and higher operational margins. Management has admitted to a 'flight to quality' trend, which forces Danhos into a high-CAPEX cycle of property renovations to prevent tenant churn to newer, more modern developments.
Customer traffic and engagement are showing signs of cooling. Q1 2026 data revealed a 3.3% year-over-year decline in visitor flow across total properties. Additionally, the lease spread in the retail portfolio compressed from 10.2% to 7.4%, suggesting that management has less leverage to raise rents on tenants compared to previous cycles.
Full Earnings Call Transcript
Full Earnings Call Transcript — Q1 • 2026-04-24
Operator: Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Fibra Danhos First Quarter 2026 Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note, this call is being recorded, and I'll be standing by for assistance. Now I'll turn the call over to your host, Rodrigo Martinez. Please go ahead, Rodrigo. Rodrigo Chavez: Thank you, Elise. Hello, everyone. I am Rodrigo Martinez, and I run Investor Relations for the company. At this time, I'd like to welcome everyone to Fibra Danhos 2026 First Quarter Conference Call. We issued our quarterly report yesterday. If you did not receive a copy, please do not hesitate in contact us. Please be aware that they are also available on our website and in Mexico Stock Exchange website. Before we begin our call today, I would like to remind you all that forward-looking statements made during today's call do not account for future economic circumstances, industry conditions and company performance or financial results. These statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties. All figures included herein were prepared in accordance to IFRS standards and are stated in nominal Mexican pesos unless otherwise noted. Joining today from Fibra Danhos in Mexico City is Mr. Salvador Daniel, CEO of Fibra Danhos; Mr. Jorge Serrano, CFO of Fibra Danhos; and Mr. Elias Mizrahi. Now I will turn the call to Jorge Serrano for opening remarks and financial and operating indicators. Jorge, please go ahead. Jorge Esponda: Good morning. Thanks for joining us today. Fibra Danhos posted sound financial and operating results for the first quarter 2026. Fixed rent, an 8% growth explained by the full contribution of Cuautitlan and Palomas industrial projects, indexation of lease agreements and improved occupancy levels in our office portfolio. Overage and parking revenues increased almost 13% and 18%, respectively, based on strong sales from our tenants and tariff adjustments in our properties. Consequently, total revenue during the quarter increased 9.4% year-over-year, while operating expenses did so by 7%, resulting in a 10% increase in net operating income and 11% on EBITDA with margin improvements. AFFO per CBFI accounted for MXN 0.76, equivalent to MXN 1.2 billion and almost 16% high year-on-year. Distribution was determined at MXN 0.45 per CBFI, that represents a payout ratio of 59%. GLA on our operating portfolio increased by 15% year-over-year. And overall occupancy level grew 220 basis points, reaching almost 92%. Lease spread on 20,000 square meter renewal agreements on our operating portfolio was 4.3%. Our CapEx pipeline continues to gain momentum, particularly in Palomas and EdoMex III industrial projects that are due to deliver by year-end. While Parque Oaxaca and Nizuc are making progress and running on schedule as well. Balance sheet remains with only 13.6% leverage. During the quarter, Fitch ratified a AAA rating for Fibra Danhos CBFIs and our debt bond issuances. Fibra Danhos shareholders' meeting took place on March 27, with a general quorum of assistance of more than 80% and resulting on the approval of all the agenda items with a favorable vote of more than 95% on each of them. Thanks, and we may now turn to the Q&A session. Operator: [Operator Instructions] Our first question today comes from Igor Machado of Goldman Sachs. Igor Machado: So the first one is on lease maturities. You have a significant amount of lease maturities coming due for retail portfolio, so 28% of total. And your leasing spread is around 7% this quarter. So just want to better understand what could we expect the lease spreads going forward with the lease-up. And also given the significance of the maturities... Jorge Esponda: Something happens with -- we cannot understand well. Can you repeat the question? Igor Machado: Yes, sure. Can you hear me well? Jorge Esponda: We can hear you, it's distortion. I mean we did not hear you clearly. Igor Machado: Can you hear me? Jorge Esponda: Yes, that's better. I think you're closer now to the microphone. Igor Machado: Yes. So the first question is on [ lease maturities ]. So you have a significant amount of maturities due this year for the retail portfolio. So I just want to understand why could we expect the lease spreads going forward with the lease-up? And also given the significance of the maturities, if you see this is an opportunity to do a material change in your tenant book for the retail portfolio? Elias Mizrahi: Igor, this is Elias Mizrahi. So the maturities for our retail portfolio, historically, we have a weighted average term of approximately 4 years. So around 25% of our contracts expire every year, and we actually do renovations on a 3- to 5-year renewals at the most precisely to have these renovation windows, and that's where we can push rents up and have leasing spreads. So on retail, we continue to see lease spreads above inflation in general. And I think that's the question, right? Igor Machado: Yes. Operator: Was there anything further, Igor? Igor Machado: Sorry, if it's possible, I have another question here. Could you comment on why are you seeing the potential increase in construction costs given the conflict in the Middle East? Elias Mizrahi: We haven't seen an impact in costs because of the war in the Middle East. Let me pass this to [indiscernible] to give you some further remarks. Salvador Daniel Kabbaz Zaga: I mean we haven't still seen a significant change in prices. None of our contractors have let us know that we have to be prepared for it. So we're not expecting a big change on the increases in cost of construction, at least for the moment. Operator: Our next question today comes from Gordon Lee of BTG Pactual. Gordon Lee: Two questions. I was wondering on the industrial side. Now that, that segment is becoming more relevant for you, will you be looking at any sort of potential M&A opportunities? And I'm not thinking of Macquarie, but I'm thinking more of -- this is the expectation that there will be a pipeline through the maturation of [indiscernible] properties hitting the market. Would you look to acquire properties? Or do you prefer to focus 100% on developing them? And then the second question is just on Torre Virreyes, that's one of your sort of flagship office properties where we really haven't seen sort of improvements in occupancy in the last 2 or 3 quarters. So I was wondering whether you think that's still something that's just cyclical? Or do you think there's something about the property that may require more work, repositioning, something of that nature? Salvador Daniel Kabbaz Zaga: This is Salvador. I mean, talking about Torre Virreyes, it's 100% leased. Gordon Lee: Sorry, I meant Toreo. I said Torre Virreyes, but I meant Toreo. Sorry about that. Salvador Daniel Kabbaz Zaga: Okay. I mean, Toreo, we've been working very hard. It was hit by the pandemic and we lost some tenants. But we're seeing a gradually increase in occupancy, and we expect it to be even better in the next trimester. So we feel comfortable with it. And we're going to see -- we believe we're going to see good numbers in the next years to come. So as you know, the office segment is still just recuperating after the pandemic. But we've seen a lot more movement in clients and interest in spaces, especially in the last trimester. I mean, I hope this -- we can -- we were able to fulfill into contract [ with ] expectation. But we're -- I mean, happy with it. And in terms of industrial, of course, we are always open to new opportunities. As you know, we prefer to develop because in that way, we can actually get much higher yields with it. But -- but if we find a good opportunity in the market, we'll take advantage of it. Operator: And from JPMorgan, we have Felipe Barragan. Felipe Barragan Sanchez: So we've seen a good uptick on the office occupancy, now coming close to 80%. I just want to get an update from what you guys commented last quarter. If we could see perhaps you guys breaking above the 80% threshold that you guys have been struggling to recover. Salvador Daniel Kabbaz Zaga: Yes. We are expecting this to grow. I mean it's not an easy task. Office, it's much better, but it's not still, I mean, driving. So we expect it to be a better number each trimester and to actually fill up our buildings in the next year, something like that. Felipe Barragan Sanchez: Okay. And I have a second question real quick. So last quarter, you said there was a softer consumer demand that wasn't extremely prominent. Could you guys give us an update on what you guys are seeing on the consumer environment for this quarter? Salvador Daniel Kabbaz Zaga: I mean, we're seeing it to be basically just based on the line, not increasing, not decreasing. It's not a high consumer option, but we believe that things are getting much better, especially with the World Cup coming into Mexico. We expect that -- as you know, our shopping malls are in Mexico City, so we expect this to contribute in a positive way to the portfolio. But the truth is that we're basically just flat online. Operator: Next, we have Alan Macias of Bank of America. Alan Macias: Just a question on land bank. If you can remind us your strategy of acquiring land in Mexico City for the industrial sector? And what are you seeing there in terms of land prices? And perhaps has anything changed in terms of licensing and permits? Salvador Daniel Kabbaz Zaga: I think we're on a good place on acquiring some land with licensing and permitting. We're working very hard on it. We've been doing it in the past couple of years, and they're getting just mature to be almost ready to be developed. So we expect to give good notice in the next probably 6 months about it. But we're going to continue into the industrial development. We feel comfortable with it. I think we're doing a good job with it. And we are working very hard to basically just be able to -- in the next few months or 4 months or 2 trimesters able to give a good notice to the market on it. Operator: [Operator Instructions] And we have no further questions at this time. Rodrigo, back over to you for any additional or closing comments. Rodrigo Chavez: Thank you very much, Elise, and thank you, everyone, for joining us today. Please do not hesitate to contact us, Salvador, Elias, Jorge and myself for any further questions. We are always available, and we'll see you on the next conference call. Thank you very much. Operator: That concludes our meeting today. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect.