CVGW
Calavo Growers, Inc.Calavo Growers, Inc. markets and distributes avocados, prepared avocados, and other perishable foods to retail grocery and foodservice customers, club stores, mass merchandisers, food distributors, and wholesale customers worldwide. It operates in three segments: Fresh Products, Calavo Foods, and Renaissance Food Group (RFG). The Fresh products segment distributes avocados and other fresh produce products comprising tomatoes and papayas; and procures avocados grown in California, Mexico, Peru, a
2-Year Price History
Quarterly Financials & Projections
| Period | Rev | EBITDA | OpIn | NI | OCF | FCF | CapEx | Cash | Debt | Shares | ROIC | IntCov | EV/EBITDA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Est | 2028-Q1 | 135.0 | 3.4 | -- | 0.7 | -- | -4.1 | -0.8 | 85.7 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q4 | 140.0 | 4.9 | -- | 1.4 | -- | 2.8 | -1.0 | 89.7 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q3 | 180.0 | 10.8 | -- | 5.8 | -- | 12.6 | -0.7 | 86.9 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q2 | 170.0 | 9.9 | -- | 5.1 | -- | 10.2 | -0.9 | 74.3 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q1 | 130.0 | 2.6 | -- | 0.0 | -- | -5.2 | -0.8 | 64.1 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q4 | 135.0 | 4.1 | -- | 0.7 | -- | 2.0 | -0.9 | 69.3 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q3 | 175.0 | 10.2 | -- | 5.3 | -- | 11.4 | -0.7 | 67.3 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q2 | 165.0 | 9.1 | -- | 4.6 | -- | 8.3 | -0.8 | 55.9 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Act | 2026-Q1 | 122.2 | 0.3 | -1.5 | 0.7 | -8.7 | -9.5 | -0.8 | 47.7 | 22.4 | 17.9 | -8.9% | 2.4x | 16.2x |
| Act | 2025-Q4 | 124.7 | 5.3 | -1.7 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 1.2 | -1.1 | 61.2 | 23.5 | 17.9 | -6.6% | 25.3x | 12.8x |
| Act | 2025-Q3 | 178.8 | 9.0 | 8.7 | 4.7 | 8.0 | 7.3 | -0.7 | 63.8 | 24.2 | 17.9 | 39.8% | 45.2x | 14.8x |
| Act | 2025-Q2 | 190.6 | 11.8 | 7.6 | 6.9 | 15.7 | 15.6 | -0.1 | 60.4 | 24.6 | 17.8 | 29.8% | 58.0x | 13.7x |
| Act | 2025-Q1 | 154.4 | 7.0 | 5.1 | 4.4 | -4.4 | -4.7 | -0.3 | 48.5 | 24.8 | 17.9 | 23.1% | 32.8x | 16.1x |
| Act | 2024-Q4 | 170.0 | 2.7 | 3.0 | -0.3 | 10.8 | 10.5 | -0.4 | 57.0 | 25.9 | 17.9 | 11.7% | 9.8x | 20.8x |
| Act | 2024-Q3 | 179.6 | 7.4 | 10.2 | -0.7 | 11.4 | 11.3 | -0.1 | 1.1 | 60.7 | 17.8 | 38.6% | 8.9x | 18.7x |
| Act | 2024-Q2 | 184.4 | 9.7 | 6.9 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | -1.4 | 4.3 | 70.6 | 17.9 | 22.0% | 10.1x | 16.4x |
| Act | 2024-Q1 | 127.6 | 3.4 | -3.1 | -6.3 | 0.1 | -1.0 | -1.0 | 5.7 | 71.1 | 17.8 | -10.8% | 4.1x | 19.6x |
| Act | 2023-Q4 | 241.2 | 4.0 | -0.6 | -7.9 | 4.7 | 4.1 | -0.6 | 2.1 | 65.6 | 17.8 | -1.9% | 31.9x | 16.3x |
| Act | 2023-Q3 | 160.9 | 16.8 | 10.9 | 6.6 | -15.4 | -17.1 | -1.6 | 1.4 | 101.3 | 17.9 | 20.9% | 21.9x | 19.7x |
| Act | 2023-Q2 | 158.3 | 6.1 | -4.0 | -4.0 | 2.1 | -1.2 | -3.3 | 4.2 | 84.4 | 17.7 | -11.4% | 25.1x | 26.8x |
| Act | 2023-Q1 | 132.8 | 4.3 | -1.7 | -3.1 | -5.9 | -11.1 | -5.2 | 1.8 | 80.7 | 17.7 | -4.7% | 11.4x | 31.6x |
| Act | 2022-Q4 | 243.6 | 4.4 | 3.7 | -3.3 | 8.1 | 6.0 | -2.0 | 2.1 | 66.3 | 17.7 | 7.0% | 10.7x | 40.0x |
| Act | 2022-Q3 | 342.0 | 7.1 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 20.9 | 16.9 | -4.0 | 2.5 | 91.8 | 17.8 | 3.6% | 14.6x | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q2 | 331.4 | 4.1 | 4.4 | -0.2 | 18.9 | 17.2 | -1.7 | 2.3 | 109.7 | 17.7 | 9.7% | 8.9x | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q1 | 274.1 | -0.1 | -3.0 | -4.0 | 2.4 | 0.3 | -2.0 | 7.8 | 133.9 | 17.7 | -4.6% | -0.3x | -- |
Multiples vs the company's own history — cheap or rich relative to itself? Historical fiscal years, then TTM, then forward projections (E). Forward rows hold today's price against projected earnings, so the multiple compresses if the company grows into it.
| Year | Price | Rev Gr | EBITDA % | EBITDA | EV/EBITDA | EV/FCF | P/E | P/S |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 27.39 | — | 1.3% | 16 | 40.0× | 15.3× | n/m | 0.5× |
| 2023 | 27.70 | -41.8% | 4.5% | 31 | 16.3× | n/m | n/m | 0.6× |
| 2024 | 24.47 | -4.5% | 3.5% | 23 | 20.8× | 22.3× | n/m | 0.8× |
| 2025 | 21.55 | -2.0% | 5.1% | 33 | 12.8× | 21.9× | 23.4× | 0.7× |
| TTM | 26.09 | -10.5% | 4.3% | 26 | 0.0× | 0.0× | 0.0× | 0.0× |
| 2027E | 26.09 | +0.6% | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0× | 0.0× | 0.0× | 0.0× |
EBITDA in reporting-currency $M. Historical multiples use year-end market cap (split-adjusted price history); TTM & forward years use today's.
AI Analysis
LLM Evaluations
CVGW is a merger-arb situation, not a fundamental investment at this point. The $27.00/share Mission Produce deal (cash + stock) provides a price ceiling, while the standalone business faces material risks including a $201.8M Mexican tax assessment that dwarfs the company's equity, volatile avocado pricing, and declining fresh segment revenues. The stock trades at ~$24, implying ~12% upside to deal value but with meaningful deal-break risk from regulatory review and the inherited Mexican tax liability. On a standalone basis, this is a low-margin, commodity-dependent distributor with FCF margins averaging only 2-3% and no durable competitive moat. The prepared foods segment (guacamole) is a bright spot with 35-40% volume growth, but it's not large enough to transform the investment case. The 6.6% short interest and 52% increase in short shares suggest the market recognizes deal uncertainty.
Valuation & Metrics
Market Stats
TTM Financial Snapshot
DCF Fair Value Estimate
Forward Outlook & Risk
Short Interest
Options
| Strike | Call Bid/Ask | Call OI | Put Bid/Ask | Put OI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $12.50 | $12.80/$15.40 | 0 | --/$0.95 | 0 |
| $15.00 | $10.30/$12.90 | 0 | --/$1.65 | 0 |
| $17.50 | $7.80/$10.50 | 0 | --/$1.65 | 16 |
| $20.00 | $5.00/$8.60 | 0 | --/$1.20 | 108 |
| $22.50 | $2.50/$6.10 | 66 | --/$2.25 | 31 |
| $25.00 | $0.70/$3.50 | 25 | --/$2.05 | 1,000 |
| $30.00 | --/$1.45 | 16 | $2.00/$5.20 | 2 |
| $35.00 | --/$2.15 | 1 | $6.60/$10.10 | 0 |
Forward Projections & Estimates
Employees
Institutional Ownership
Headline & net flow
In Q1 2026 so far (quarter still filing), institutions are net buyers — bought 44.1% of float, sold 6.0%. 11 filers moved >1% of shares (10 buying, 1 selling).
Ownership composition
Top holders
| Fund | $ value | Cost basis | Δ QoQ | Δ YoY | α life | Fund AUM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rubric Capital Management LP | $36.5M | $25.79 | +$36.5M | +$36.5M | +0.4% | $8.16B |
| BlackRock, Inc.Passive | $32.2M | $26.98 | −$1.4M | −$4.4M | -0.2% | $5.69T |
| ALLIANCEBERNSTEIN L.P. | $27.6M | $25.83 | +$32.3M | +$27.2M | -0.3% | $307.70B |
| DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LPPassive | $19.6M | $26.16 | +$1.6M | +$2.3M | -0.4% | $480.92B |
| VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLCPassive | $19.1M | $25.79 | +$19.1M | +$19.1M | — | $4.04T |
| Magnetar Financial LLC | $17.3M | $25.77 | +$17.0M | +$17.3M | -0.8% | $9.54B |
| Fourth Sail Capital LP | $16.3M | $21.55 | −$1.8M | +$16.3M | -1.2% | $608M |
| NUANCE INVESTMENTS, LLC | $14.7M | $26.32 | +$585K | −$31.0M | -1.3% | $717M |
| BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ | $13.8M | $25.98 | +$13.1M | +$12.6M | -0.1% | $1.36T |
| GAMCO INVESTORS, INC. ET AL | $12.4M | $24.21 | +$137K | +$5.4M | -0.0% | $10.15B |
| GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLCPassive | $10.8M | $25.66 | −$1.8M | −$1.6M | +2.3% | $1.61T |
| HEARTLAND ADVISORS INC | $10.3M | $24.96 | −$2.0M | +$10.3M | -0.4% | $1.96B |
| HOTCHKIS & WILEY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC | $10.0M | $25.79 | +$10.0M | +$10.0M | -0.1% | $31.89B |
| CHARLES SCHWAB INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC | $9.7M | $27.75 | +$280K | +$4.4M | +0.7% | $645.81B |
| Qube Research & Technologies Ltd | $9.7M | $24.57 | +$2.1M | +$5.1M | +0.3% | $70.36B |
| CITIGROUP INC | $9.4M | $25.62 | +$8.3M | +$9.1M | -0.3% | $156.55B |
| STATE STREET CORPPassive | $9.1M | $29.04 | −$261K | −$1.3M | -0.2% | $2.89T |
| National Philanthropic Trust | $8.4M | $24.29 | +$0 | +$8.4M | +0.5% | $9.26B |
| VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLCPassive | $7.7M | $25.79 | +$7.7M | +$7.7M | — | $1.91T |
| MILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC | $6.4M | $26.49 | +$5.0M | −$1.6M | -0.5% | $127.40B |
Trading behavior
▸ Compare to holder-profile behavior (across all their stocks)
Biggest decreases this quarter
New buyers this quarter
Top-5 holders · 33.6%
Top Holders Over Time
5-year share-count history (top 10 holders by peak, incl. exited) + price
Analyst Coverage
| Quarter | Revenue | EBITDA | Net Inc | EPS | EPS Range | # Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q3 | 192M | 7M | 10M | $0.54 | $0.49 – $0.59 | 2 |
| 2025 Q4 | 148M | 5M | 7M | $0.37 | $0.28 – $0.46 | 2 |
| 2026 Q1 | 116M | 4M | 4M | $0.21 | $0.21 – $0.22 | 2 |
| 2026 Q2 | 134M | 5M | 6M | $0.35 | $0.32 – $0.38 | 2 |
| 2026 Q3 | 140M | 5M | 8M | $0.47 | $0.41 – $0.54 | 2 |
| 2026 Q4 | 141M | 5M | 7M | $0.37 | $0.37 – $0.37 | 1 |
| 2027 Q1 | 102M | 3M | 5M | $0.27 | $0.27 – $0.27 | 1 |
| 2027 Q2 | 130M | 4M | 6M | $0.35 | $0.35 – $0.35 | 1 |
| 2027 Q3 | 141M | 5M | 10M | $0.56 | $0.55 – $0.57 | 1 |
| 2027 Q4 | 147M | 5M | 6M | $0.33 | $0.33 – $0.33 | 1 |
Corporate
Executive Compensation (2022-2024)
Order Flow (FINRA, ~3w lag)
Revenue Breakdown
Revenue Segments
| Fresh products | $104.7M | NEW |
| Non-US | $17.2M | +45% |
Filing Risk Analysis
Filing Risk Scores
Calavo Growers: Squeezing the Pit on a $200 Million Mexican Tax Time Bomb
Counter-Thesis
Counter-Thesis & Recent News
Calavo Growers is currently in a definitive agreement to be acquired by Mission Produce (announced Jan 14, 2026) in a cash-and-stock deal valued at $27.00 per share. The transaction, expected to close by August 2026, includes $14.85 in cash and 0.9790 shares of Mission Produce for each Calavo share. Additionally, the company reported Q1 2026 earnings on March 12, 2026, showing a focus on margin improvement, with adjusted net income performance reaching its strongest levels since 2019 following the divestiture of its lower-margin 'Fresh Cut' business for $83 million.
The primary bear thesis rests on persistent revenue volatility and volume declines. In Q4 2025, Fresh segment sales dropped 31% due to lower avocado pricing, and revenue has frequently missed analyst estimates (e.g., a 26.6% YoY decline in Q4 2025). Bears argue that the company is overly dependent on fluctuating commodity prices and has struggled with operational mishaps, such as a temporary FDA detention hold in 2025 that cost $4.2 million in discrete expenses.
Calavo has faced significant one-time legal and professional fees, including $2.4 million related to an internal investigation. There are also ongoing risks regarding the 'Tomato Suspension Agreement,' which imposes anti-dumping duties on Mexican imports, potentially squeezing margins in the Fresh segment. Furthermore, while the Mission Produce merger provides a price floor, any regulatory hurdle or 'deal-break' scenario would likely cause the stock to plummet back to pre-announcement levels (approx. $21).
The industry is consolidating, and Calavo faces stiff competition from large-scale players like Fresh Del Monte Produce and Mission Produce (prior to merger completion). These competitors often benefit from superior economies of scale and more diversified sourcing networks. Additionally, the rise of private-label guacamole products in retail threatens Calavo’s higher-margin Prepared segment.
Sentiment in the 'Prepared' (guacamole) segment is a major bright spot; the company reported a 35-40% volume increase in this category in late 2025, driven by strong demand for new product launches like 'avocado squeeze pouches.' Institutional sentiment remains high, with 81% of shares held by institutions, suggesting professional investors are betting on the successful execution of the turnaround and merger.