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Carpenter Technology delivered an exceptional third quarter of fiscal year 2026, achieving record operating income of $187 million, a 20% sequential increase. The results were driven by strong performance in the Specialty Alloys Operations (SAO) segment, which reached an all-time high operating margin of 35.6%. This margin expansion reflects improved productivity, strategic pricing, and a favorable product mix. The Aerospace and Defense sector remains the primary growth engine, with sales up 17% year-over-year. Notably, the aerospace structural materials submarket is showing signs of a significant ramp-up as OEMs like Boeing and Airbus increase build rates. While the Medical segment faced year-over-year declines, a surge in bookings suggests a recovery is underway. The Energy market also saw substantial growth due to IGT demand from data centers. Financially, the company generated strong adjusted free cash flow of $124.8 million and continues to return capital through share repurchases. Management raised its full-year 2026 guidance and signaled that fiscal 2027 targets will likely be revised upward, citing a tightening market for nickel-based superalloys and the company's differentiated manufacturing capabilities.

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Carpenter Technology: Aggressive Buybacks and Receivables Bloat Masking Cash Flow Management

Full Earnings Call Transcript — Q3 • 2026-04-29

Operator: Hello, and welcome. My name is Ellie, and I will be your conference operator for today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Carpenter Technology CRS Third Quarter Fiscal Year 2026 Earnings Presentation Call. Please note that this call is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to hand the call over to John Huyette, Vice President of Investor Relations. You may now go ahead, please.
John Huyette: Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Carpenter Technology Earnings Conference Call for the Fiscal 2026 Third Quarter ended March 31, 2026. This call is also being broadcast over the Internet along with presentation slides. For those of you listening by phone, you may experience a time delay in slide movement. speakers on the call today are Tony Thene, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Tim Lain, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Brian Malloy, President and Chief Operating Officer. Statements made by management during this earnings presentation that are forward-looking statements are based on current expectations. Risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these forward-looking statements can be found in Carpenter Technology's most recent SEC filings, including the company's report on Form 10-K for the year ended June 30, 2025, forms 10-Q for the quarters ended September 30, 2025, and December 31, 2025, and the exhibits attached to those filings. Please also note that in the following discussion, unless otherwise noted, when management discusses the sales or revenue, that reference excludes surcharge. When referring to operating margins, that is based on adjusted operating income, excluding special items and sales, excluding surcharge. I will now turn the call over to Tony.
Tony Thene: Thank you, John, and good morning to everyone. I will begin on Slide 4 with a review of our safety performance. We ended the third quarter of fiscal year 2026 with a total case incident rate of 1.3. We continue to make progress as a result of targeted actions we've implemented across the organization centered on standardized work and disciplined safety practices. As always, we remain committed to our ultimate goal of a zero injury workplace. Let's turn to Slide 5 for an overview of our third quarter performance. Carpenter Technology just delivered another record quarter, reflecting the accelerating demand across our high-value markets and our continued strong operational execution. This record performance is best understood through 4 key takeaways that highlight the strength, durability and trajectory of the business: one, record earnings. In the third quarter, we generated $187 million in operating income, exceeding our previous record set in the second quarter by 20%. Certainly, we have earned a reputation of setting meaningful financial targets and then exceeding them, and we did it again in this quarter. But it must be noted the ability to increase earnings by 20% sequentially over what was a record quarter and in a market that is still accelerating, must be recognized as superior performance. We are extremely proud of the Carpenter Technology team for their commitment to performance and their focus on continuous improvement. Importantly, these record earnings translated directly into another step change in cash flow generation. In the third quarter, we generated $193.5 million in cash from operating activities and $124.8 million of adjusted free cash flow. Two, expanding operating margins. The SAO segment delivered an adjusted operating margin of 35.6% in the quarter, another new record for the business. This margin compares to 33.1% in the prior quarter and 29.1% a year ago. This meaningful margin expansion clearly demonstrates the impact of ongoing productivity gains, product mix optimization and pricing actions. As a result of the expanding margins, the SAO segment recorded $208 million in operating income, an increase of 19% sequentially and another all-time record for this segment. Three, strengthening market demand. We see clear and accelerating demand signals across the aerospace and defense in each market, reflected in both OEM production plans and order intake. Notably, bookings for aerospace structural materials continued to increase, up substantially this quarter. Remember, the submarket for aerospace structural material has been the most impacted by the OEM build rates. Therefore, increasing orders from our Aerospace structural customers is a clear signal that the supply chain is accelerating the ramp to support the expected OEM build rates going forward. And fourth, pricing continues to be a tailwind. As I've said many times, pricing has been and will continue to be a tailwind for the business. Against a backdrop of strong demand, customers are prioritizing security of supply, and we are continuing to realize pricing that reflects the value we deliver. While no long-term agreements were completed in the quarter, several are currently in negotiation. These long-term agreements support attractive economics for us while providing our customers with the supply chain certainty they need, making them strategically beneficial for both sides. Now let's turn to Slide 6 and have a closer look at our third quarter sales and market dynamics. In the third quarter of fiscal year 2026, we delivered strong top line growth, with total sales, excluding raw material surcharge up 10% year-over-year and up 11% sequentially, reflecting higher volumes and continued pricing strength. The higher volumes were the result of increased operating time, improved productivity and increasing demand for aerospace materials primarily in the aerospace structural submarket. Looking ahead, we expect continued productivity improvements and healthy demand across our core end-use markets to support further sales growth. Now let me review our key end-use markets, starting with Aerospace and Defense. Sales in the Aerospace and Defense end-use market were up 13% sequentially and up 17% year-over-year. Our sales growth reflects accelerating activity across the aerospace supply chain as OEMs continue to push towards higher build rates. Let me give some color on what we see happening in the aerospace market. With backlogs of new plane orders reaching new records every quarter, Boeing and Airbus are ramping production. Notably, Boeing is now consistently producing 42 737s per month. As reported on their recent earnings call, they are poised to go to 47 per month this summer and have their sights set on 52 and beyond due to the growing demand. As a result, the supply chain is building confidence and our customer order intake has been increasing. Even with the increasing orders, OEMs are still concerned that the supply chain is not ordering material fast enough. We agree as we have seen order intake increase significantly, but we know from experience that it is still not enough to support the desired ramp. Over the last 3 months, we've had customers reach out requesting urgent deliveries to avoid line shutdowns for specific applications. We also continue to have customers across engine programs telling us our material is needed sooner. The Boeing comment inventories that had been helping with recent output are now coming down is significant, and it will drive urgency to yet another level. We expect this urgency will continue to spread throughout the supply chain as inventories run short, further tightening the market for our materials. Moving on to the Medical end-use market, our sales were down 9% sequentially and 29% compared to the prior year third quarter. On a positive note, bookings were up significantly in the quarter. supporting our expectation the Medical end-use market will begin to recover and return to growth in the near term. In the Energy end-use market, sales increased 32% sequentially and 44% year-over-year, driven by higher volumes supporting industrial gas turbine builds. The demand from our IGT customers, primarily driven by the growing energy needs of data centers, remains strong across multiple platform types and OEMs. Keep in mind that the production flow for the IGT material goes across similar flow path as aerospace materials. As a result, quarterly sales for IGT material can fluctuate due to order timing and production scheduling. Taking a step back, we are clearly operating in an accelerated demand environment across our highest value end use markets. Combined with our differentiated capabilities and capacity, this positions Carpenter Technology for meaningful growth, both in the near term and over the long term. Now I will turn it over to Tim for the financial summary.
Timothy Lain: Thanks, Tony. Good morning, everyone. I'll start on the income statement summary on Slide 8. Starting at the top, sales excluding surcharge increased 10% year-over-year on 15% higher volume. Sequentially, sales were up 11% on 10% higher volume. The improving productivity, product mix and pricing are evident in our gross profit, which increased to $251.8 million in the current quarter, up 25% from the same quarter last year and up 15% sequentially. Selling, general and administrative or SG&A expenses were $65.3 million in the third quarter, up roughly $2 million both sequentially and versus the same quarter last year. The SG&A line includes corporate costs, which were $27.3 million. This is up $1.1 million sequentially and up $2.9 million from the third quarter of fiscal year 2025. For the upcoming fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026, we expect corporate cost to be between $25 million to $26 million. Operating income was $186.5 million in the current quarter, which is 35% higher than our third quarter of fiscal year 2025 and up 20% from our recent second quarter. As Tony mentioned earlier, this represents another record quarterly operating income result, breaking the previous record set last quarter. Moving on to our effective tax rate, which was 21% in the current quarter. This quarter's effective tax rate was lower than anticipated, primarily due to discrete tax benefits associated with changes to the estimates for certain tax positions taken in the prior year. For the upcoming fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026, we expect the effective tax rate, excluding discrete items, to be about 23%. Finally, the earnings per diluted share was $2.77 per share for the quarter. Now turning to the next slide to talk about our cash generation and capital allocation priorities. In addition to the strong earnings performance, we've generated meaningful cash flows, driven by higher earnings and ongoing efforts to manage working capital closely, particularly inventory. To date, in fiscal year 2026, we generated $364.9 million of cash from operating activities. This is roughly 2x the operating cash flows when compared to the same period last year. The cash generated from operations more than supports the capital spending in fiscal year 2026. To date, we have spent $157.6 million in fiscal year 2026. This includes the annual targeted capital expenditures of $125 million as well as the brownfield capacity expansion project. As anticipated, capital spending ramped in our recent third quarter, totaling $68.7 million as activities around the capacity expansion project accelerated. A brief update on this project. The brownfield capacity expansion project remains on budget and on schedule. The construction phase is well underway and key equipment deliveries have begun. The project team remains focused on not only completing construction and installation of equipment, but also preparing for activities to ensure a smooth startup of operations. As we look to the balance of the year, we expect capital expenditures for fiscal year 2026 to finish at about $260 million. This is below the expectation we set at the beginning of the year based solely on changes in the estimates we made for the timing of cash spending related to the project. This doesn't change our outlook for the full project that we set out when we announced the expansion. With those details in mind, to date in fiscal year 2026, we have generated $207.3 million in adjusted free cash flow. We are increasing our outlook for free cash flow and currently expect to generate at least $350 million of adjusted free cash flow in fiscal year 2026. As we have said many times before, our adjusted free cash flow generation is important as it enables us to deploy a balanced capital allocation approach. That includes investing cash in attractive and accretive growth projects like the brownfield capacity expansion and returning cash to shareholders. To that end, we continue to execute against our repurchase authorization and repurchased $133.9 million of shares in fiscal year 2026. This brings the total to $235.8 million spent to date against the $400 million authorization that we announced in July of 2024. And in addition to the buyback program, we also continue to fund a recurring and long-standing quarterly dividend. Finally, our ability to deploy capital is also supported by our healthy liquidity and strong balance sheet. Last quarter, we talked about the refinancing actions we took to strengthen both our balance sheet and liquidity. As of the most recent quarter end, our total liquidity was $793.8 million including $294.8 million of cash and $499 million of available borrowings under our credit facility. Our credit metrics remain very strong with our net debt-to-EBITDA ratio remaining well below 1x. Altogether, we believe our strong balance sheet and outlook for significant cash generation positions us well to fund continued growth and deliver significant shareholder returns. With that, I'll turn the call to Brian.
Brian Malloy: Thanks, Tim, and good morning, everyone. I'll provide some commentary on each of our segments for the quarter, starting on Slide 11 with our Specialty Alloys Operations segment. SAO delivered an exceptional third quarter, marked by strong top line growth, record margins and another step change in operating income performance. SAO's performance was supported by continued improvements in productivity across our facilities, pricing realization, product mix optimization and higher available uptime versus the prior quarter. Net sales, excluding surcharge, were $585 million in the quarter, up 13% year-over-year and 11% sequentially, with both comparisons driven by higher volumes. The growth was led by improving demand in the Aerospace and Defense market as well as continued strength in Energy, especially from IGT customers. Adjusted operating margin increased to a record 35.6% in the quarter, marking the 17th consecutive quarter of margin expansion and exceeding the prior record set just last quarter. Keep in mind, there are short-term factors that could impact what operating margins can be in any given quarter, most notably the mix of products. While quarterly margins can vary based on product mix, the underlying trajectory remains clearly upward, supported by our core structural drivers, productivity, mix and pricing. As a result of top line growth and expanding margins, SAO delivered operating income of $208 million in the third quarter, the highest quarterly result in the segment's history and a significant sequential increase. The SAO team has clearly risen to meet the challenge and is operating at a high level across the organization. From the commercial team working with customers to provide solutions to our production planning team optimizing our manufacturing system to ensure that the highest margin materials are prioritized across Flow path and to the manufacturing team, the backbone of our operations, improving productivity at each shift to ensure we consistently produce at high levels to meet the growing demand. But the SAO team is not content with our current success. We believe we can do better and are looking forward to continuing to demonstrate record-breaking performance. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, SAO remains focused on sustaining this momentum by optimizing product mix for margin, closely managing production planning and capacity and continuing to drive productivity and cost discipline. Based on current visibility, we expect SAO to generate operating income in the range of $224 million to $228 million in the fourth quarter, representing yet another strong step forward for the segment. Now turning to Slide 12 and our PEP segment results. Net sales, excluding surcharge in the third quarter of fiscal year 2026 were $90.6 million, up 17% sequentially and down 6% from the same quarter a year ago. The sequential improvement in sales was driven by increasing sales in Aerospace and Defense. Year-over-year, Aerospace and Defense sales were also higher, but were more than offset by a year-over-year decline in Medical sales in our titanium business. The softness in the medical market continues to be in certain titanium products for a specific set of medical distribution customers, which has had an outsized impact on our titanium business. As Tony mentioned in his comments, we are seeing an increase in bookings and are optimistic about a return to a growth trajectory in the medical market. Our teams in Dynamet continue to focus on what they can control like productivity, equipment reliability and overall consistency, very similar to the dynamics in SAO. More recently, although a smaller piece of PEP, a bright spot has been our additive business where our material solutions continue to benefit from strong demand. The growing demand in additive is driven primarily by the Aerospace and Defense end-use market, where our value proposition for highly specialized products and capabilities support our customers' needs. PEP reported an operating income of $6.7 million in the current quarter, which is as we expected, largely in line with our recent second quarter. We currently anticipate the PEP segment's operating income for the upcoming fourth quarter to be in line with the third quarter of fiscal year 2026. With that, I'll turn the call back to Tony.
Tony Thene: Let me close as I have the last couple of quarters with why Carpenter Technology is a compelling story for existing and potential shareholders. One, we have an [indiscernible] market position in the industry. We're at the beginning of a major growth cycle, especially in the Aerospace and Defense end-use market. With the accelerating aerospace build rates driving higher demand for our materials, a fundamental supply-demand imbalance in nickel-based super alloys will continue to tighten. Our leading capabilities are differentiated by stringent qualifications necessary to supply advanced materials for Aerospace and Defense and other key end-use market applications. And our world-class collection of unique manufacturing assets are difficult, if not impossible, to replicate. Two, we have demonstrated a commitment to a balanced capital allocation approach. As Tim noted, we have a healthy liquidity position and a strong balance sheet, combined with an impressive cash flow generation outlook, with a long-standing dividend and a robust share repurchase plan. In addition, our strong performance enables us to invest in highly accretive growth projects that accelerate earnings growth, but do not materially impact the nickel-based supply-demand imbalance. And three, we continue to deliver record financial results with a strong earnings outlook. We just completed another record quarter of profitability driven by significant margin expansion in our SAO segment. As I mentioned earlier, it is important to keep in mind that we are delivering record earnings even at a time when the aerospace and defense market is at the beginning of this growth cycle. And today, we increased our operating income guidance for fiscal year 2026 that implies at least a 33% increase over a record fiscal year 2025. I don't know if anyone in our industry who can say they have a stronger earnings outlook than Carpenter Technology. Looking forward, our current fiscal year 2027 earnings target is outdated and does not reflect our current earnings momentum. Further, with the demand environment accelerating, especially in aerospace and defense, we are confident our financial outlook will continue to improve beyond fiscal year 2027. We will provide an updated view, including fiscal year 2027 guidance on our next quarter's earnings call. Carpenter Technology checks every important shareholder criteria box. To date, we have created significant shareholder value, but we are only at the beginning of this growth journey. The best is still to come. Thank you for your attention, and I will now turn the call back to the operator.
Operator: [Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Gautam Khanna of TD Cowen.
Gautam Khanna: Just wanted to ask if you could comment on like lead times if they changed at all, broadly, engines and other key submarkets? Also wanted to get a sense for what do you think is possible with respect to increasing output? I know you guys are kind of 24/7 full out, but just as we think about '27 and '28 outside of pricing, how much tonnage could grow over those couple of years?
Tony Thene: Yes, sure. On lead times, they remain fairly consistent quarter-over-quarter, but I do anticipate those starting to push out here in the near term. As you well know, we kind of cap lead times anyway based on our order activity, but I see those pushing out as we go over the next couple of quarters even higher than they are right now. Your second question is a really good one. And that's one of the reasons I kind of alluded to the fact that we're producing record earnings when the aerospace market specifically is still accelerating. And it's also the reason why we've noted a couple of times the order intake acceleration of aerospace structural materials. Because although you say we're operating 24/7, which is correct on specific process or production flow path, particularly on the engine side, but on some of the other aerospace submarkets, we are not. We have pockets of opportunity there. And because the structural market was not ordering. So we have a very nice opportunity from a volume standpoint in some of those submarkets over the next couple of quarters, over the next couple of years as you stated. And I think Brian mentioned in his prepared remarks, you're still -- we've done a tremendous amount of work on productivity. I mean that just jumps off the page, but there's still a lot more to do there. So from a volume standpoint, Gautam, I guess, to summarize my answer, there's still a lot left in the tank there for us.
Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Scott Deuschle of Deutsche Bank.
Scott Deuschle: Tony, for the transactional price increases that you referenced in the press release, is that mostly referring to favorable transactional pricing for aerospace structural alloys? Or are you seeing those transactional prices create a lot more broadly across the portfolio?
Tony Thene: Yes, Scott, remind me, I'm not sure I specifically mentioned price in my prepared remarks. I talked about order intake increasing on that specific submarket, but I will say that we continue to see pricing as a tailwind force. Again, you know this very well, but you see our price per pound potentially being flat. That's a good news for our overall earnings because you see structural business being a bigger ratio of our total volume. That's good. It does have a relatively lower price point than, for example, engines. But if you look at aerospace, in total, you'll still see a positive trend there. So I'll come back with a follow-up there if I didn't quite answered your question.
Scott Deuschle: Okay. Yes, that's fine. And then has the frequency of expedite requests has been increasing pretty steadily each month this year? Or is that -- have those expedite requests been pretty erratic each month?
Tony Thene: Yes, that's an interesting question. I guess there is a feel of a little bit that they're a little bit unpredictable from that standpoint. But if I can't say they've been consistently unpredict like we're getting those on a pretty regular basis. I think those are going to increase if history is any indication. As I said in the prepared remarks, we share the same sentiment as the OEMs where they do not believe that the order intake, although increasing, is not enough yet. There is concern on the OEMs that suppliers are not ordering enough material fast enough. We agree with that. And I think as that continues to step up, you'll get more and more emergency orders. I mean also, as you all know, I really don't want to be in the emergency order business. I'd like for all the customers to order at a nice consistent pace so we can plan our facilities the best possibly can. But I do see that, that's going to increase for us over the next couple of quarters. I think that's pretty well in absolute.
Scott Deuschle: Okay. And then last question, Tim, can you say how much IGT revenue specifically was up in the quarter? I think can you give us an updated sense as to how much of the energy mix is now IGT at this point as opposed to oil and gas?
Tony Thene: Yes. Yes, you see on that one slide, you said the total energy, that was almost 100% driven by IGT. And right now, IGT is, I would say that dominating that space. Oil and gas is rather subdued from quarter-to-quarter. So IGT was the big driver this quarter. Now keep in mind also big increase in IGT. Remember, last quarter, I believe you had it, it was a pretty material decrease, and that's just the order patterns of IGT. So I don't get too excited if I see a plus 36% because you had a big order come in, you could be minus 20% the next quarter. But over a long period of several quarters' time, we've seen significant and consistent increase on the IGT business.
Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Josh Sullivan of Jones Trading.
Joshua Sullivan: Just want to say congratulations, Tony, to the next phase here. Great job done starting Carpenter to these heights; and to Brian, congratulations on the next leg here.
Tony Thene: Thank you.
Joshua Sullivan: But I guess just a follow-up on the Aerostructures question. Boeing made some comments. I think above what was it, 47%, it would take a bigger investment on the supplier inventory side versus some of the previous jumps. And so when you talk about supply chain under ordering, would you expect that, or is it your sense that we're going to -- the supply chain is going to see that and tighten up in the near term? Or do you think we need to be at above 47% as Boeing is kind of talking about to really see the supply chain react?
Tony Thene: Well, Josh, that's a really good question. In many ways, that's the million-dollar question, right? What is that last piece of information that drives that increased behavior. I can say we speak regularly to our customers about that. I would say, every month, you see more and more activity. I don't necessarily think that it needs to be at 47% before you see a big jump in activity, particularly on the structural side, only because we've already seen a nice jump up. No, that's not enough. I think another really important point that I made there too, Josh, is where Boeing stated that they have basically exhausted their inventory. That's a key piece of information. So let's see how it plays out, but I don't necessarily think we have to wait for the 47% to see that next push up in orders. Let's see how it goes over the next 30, 60 days.
Joshua Sullivan: Got it. And then I guess just kind of relatedly on the cash flow profile for Carpenter, whenever that does happen, you start to see that order intake, I mean, is there any working capital builds? I know you guys you're out so far in your lead times, maybe not. Just curious when that bow wave does finally hit. I mean, is there any sort of thought process on the cash flow profile or should be pretty consistent?
Tony Thene: I'll leave that one to Tim.
Timothy Lain: Yes, I'd say it's pretty consistent, Josh, over time. I mean we still think inventory is an opportunity for us. That would be the biggest impact, I mean sales increasing in AR and days and things like that. But we view all the work that's being done on productivity, we view inventory as an opportunity. So I don't see us investing heavily in inventory just to meet demand.
Joshua Sullivan: And then just one last one, just on more of the jet engine aftermarket bookings characteristics for the quarter, just on that, and then I'll jump back in the queue.
Tony Thene: And what's the question, just the bookings on engines? is that what you said?
Joshua Sullivan: Yes, forging jet engine side, more aftermarket kind of related activity as just some questions around obviously the broader air traffic environment and maintenance market. Just any comments you might have there?
Tony Thene: Yes, sure. You usually Gautam asks me this question on what sales are -- engines are up sequentially -- so I'll tell you that we're -- engines sequentially were up 24% sales year-over-year 44%. So still see very strong sales on the engine side. Fasteners were up 9% or 10% sequentially, 20% year-over-year. So do you see good movement there. Orders were pretty much in line. We had a big quarter last quarter, had another big quarter this quarter in orders. And as I've said before, I think you'll continue to see that increase over the next couple of quarters.
Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Bennett Moore of JPMorgan.
Bennett Moore: Congrats on the quarter. I wanted to come to defense. And I'm wondering if you've seen any uptick in defense-related orders since the onset of the conflict. And maybe if you could provide any color on where you might have more exposure within those submarkets, for instance, munitions versus jets, et cetera?
Tony Thene: Yes, it's a great question. We saw increased activity even in advance of the Middle East conflict just because with the Department of War wanting to revitalize and restock, if you will. So we have seen that in the past already. And just as a reminder, just as you start talking about different submarkets there. I mean we're a supplier, I think we have been on many platforms, fixed wing, rotorcraft, naval missile armored vehicles. So we're across multiple submarkets, if you will, that are all very program-specific. So again, it is a it is more of a lumpy order pattern depending on the program. But we see this as a submarket that's going to continue to increase. In many ways, the impact of the conflict has not been felt yet. I mean, there could potentially be another push upward on orders just to do that replenishment. So that's not always immediate signal that we see through the supply chain. So I think there's probably more to come on the order intake from a defense standpoint, which was already elevated, I think it goes to the next level.
Bennett Moore: Thanks for that context. And then I think this quarter's buybacks were the strongest since the program started and despite the Athens CapEx, the free cash flow outlook is improving. So I'm wondering how this might impact any capital allocation decisions? Could we expect to see a relatively higher quarterly buyback run rate moving forward?
Tony Thene: Well, it's possible. I mean it's a good position to be in, right? I think it's very important, and I said it in my prepared remarks because I think it's critical to our shareholders is that we're going to stay balanced. We're going to have a repurchase program. We're working on our current brownfield. That's our focus. And that type of relationship, if you will, you should anticipate that being pretty close to the same going forward. That's how we're going to run the company. And I've got Brian sitting here right next to me. He's shaking his head. That's obviously exactly the way he feels as well.
Operator: Your next question comes from the line of  Andre Madrid of BTIG.
Andre Madrid: I kind of wanted to dig into LTAs a little bit further. I think in the release you had talked about and in your comments as well, a willingness to kind of further advance some of those LTAs. There's some that are in the works right now, really pushing for volume visibility and pricing consistency. Is that an indication that you think LTA mix might increase through the coming quarters and years? I guess I'm trying to figure out how that mix might evolve with where we are in the demand environment?
Tony Thene: Yes, Andre, that's a good question. Total Carpenter, I mean, our percent LTA is in the 40%. Now if you look at Aerospace only, it jumps up quite a bit. You're in the low 60%. So 60% -- 60% to 65% of Aerospace revenue is under some type of LTA. Honestly, I don't see that changing a lot going forward. Mutually, there are some customers that don't operate under an LTA based on their preference. I would say what's changing is the customers that historically have been doing business with us under LTA would like for those to be longer. Of course, and that's another data point to suggest that they also believe in the tightness of the market and it's only going to get tighter. That's why they'd like to have it longer. We work with each of our customers individually on what's best for both of us. So I guess, gave you a little bit more than what you asked for. But at a high level, I don't see that percentage changing drastically going forward.
Andre Madrid: Got it. Got it. That's all helpful color. I think pivoting back not to beat the dead horse here, but aerostructure orders. What kind of quantifiable color can you give there? I remember last quarter, you guys had said like January month-to-date orders were higher than any month in '25. Like is there a similar metric that you can give us right now to kind of show just where demand is for Aerostructures?
Tony Thene: Well, we had a -- I'll say it this way, without getting into specifics on all the submarkets, you had a continued strong order demand for structural last quarter and you saw a similar type of increase this quarter. So no pullback on the structural side. And Andre, to be honest, I think that's going to continue. And that's why we made the point about, I don't think the order rate that's coming in to us, although it's increasing significantly, I'm speaking on the structural side, those more distribution value-add customers, even though it's increased significantly, I think there's still a lot more to go there.
Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Samuel McKinney of KeyBanc Capital Markets.
Samuel McKinney: It seems -- it sounds like some of that fiscal year '26 CapEx has been pushed into next year. Could you give us a little more color on the reasons behind the delayed cash spend at the brownfield expansion?
Timothy Lain: Yes, Sam, this is Tim Lain. So you're right. We did defer about $40 million of the expected. We set a number for CapEx has started the year around $300 million, we're down -- and that includes the annual $125 million of targeted CapEx in addition to the brownfield capacity. It's a pretty complex project. You make a set of assumptions on the activities that are going to happen, and then on top of that, you've also got to project what you think cash payments are going to be relative to different milestones and payment terms and again, a lot of variability. So throughout the year, we're looking relatively positive. We just finished Q3, we have a good handle on what's going to happen in the next 90 days. So it isn't an indication -- it's an indication of the cash, not necessarily an indication of the progress on the project, the project is still on track from a timing and budget perspective, it's really just the timing of cash payments. So that's why we reduced the estimate to $260 million for the year for CapEx.
Samuel McKinney: Okay. Then I asked this because I know we all get questions about it on our end. And I know you said you touched on it next call, but the release generally talked about continued momentum into next year. Did you guys give any thought to updating that existing EBIT guidance range for next year given the commercial aerospace production momentum has clearly improved meaningfully since you gave that outlook last year?
Tony Thene: Is the question, Sam, did we give any thought to given that update this quarter?
Samuel McKinney: Yes. That's the question.
Tony Thene: Yes. Well, we have a very detailed process, right? And I could tell you right now at what '27, '28, '29 and '30 [indiscernible]. I've got a number for each 1 of those. But I want to drive and Brian wants to drive ownership down throughout the entire organization. So we have a process that -- we do our first cut in the fall. We come back in the spring, and we do a bottoms-up cut of that again, right, where the commercial team does customer by customer, product by product, operations folks come in, piece of equipment by piece of equipment, what the productivity rates are going to be, and we're in the process of doing that right now. Now Brian and I both know what that number in '27 needs to be, but I want the ownership of the people out on the shop floor that they're not only going to hit that number, but exceed that number. So I don't want to interrupt a process that has worked very, very well for us over the last several years and we'll be wrapping that up here shortly. And then the next time we speak publicly will be the fourth quarter, so that's why you'll get it in the fourth quarter. And that's why we did it the last couple of years. Sam, that work for us, and that gets a buy-in from our entire organization. But as I said in my notes, I mean, it's clear that the 2027 number, as it stands now, is outdated, and we'll be doing much better than that.
Operator: [Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from the line of Scott Deuschle of Deutsche Bank.
Scott Deuschle: Tony, did I hear you right that jet engine revenue was up 44% year-over-year? And then was there any submarket within A&D that moved against you in a meaningful way to offset that?
Tony Thene: I did say that. I think total A&D was up 17%. I think some of the other ones, you'll have different pockets that were plus and minus a little bit faster, so it was up as well. You had a really, really big structural sales month -- sorry, not month, quarter -- last quarter. So this quarter, the structural distribution was actually down from a sales standpoint a little bit, but the orders are high. So you know how that works, Scott. It doesn't always match up in that tight 90-day window.
Operator: Your next question comes from the line of David Strauss of Wells Fargo.
David Strauss: The incremental margins that you've been putting up ex surcharge at SAO have been extraordinary. I think this past quarter, 80-some-percent looks like you're forecasting or baking in kind of something similar in Q4. But how do we think about what might be more normal incremental margins for that business as the structural piece kind of becomes a bigger portion, I would assume, going forward?
Tony Thene: Yes, David, number one, welcome to the call. We appreciate you picking up coverage. I think I'm going to get Brian involved on the call here and let him give a comment, at least from a high level from operating margins and maybe I can fill back in afterwards.
Brian Malloy: Yes. Yes. So as you've seen, we've delivered steady increase in SAO margins, and we're very happy with the efforts of the commercial and operating teams to achieve the 35.6% this quarter, but we've got a strong performance mindset. We obviously have action plans in place to continue to grow from here. Just remind you that quarter-by-quarter, the margin expansion isn't going to be linear. So there are a lot of factors we mentioned in our prepared comments that operating margins can be in any given quarter different. But overall, we see a positive trend upwards I'm not going to start forecasting quarterly operating margins, but I will say that my expectation is that 35.6% is not the ceiling. We expect the dynamics that are driving margins today to only get stronger in the coming years.
Tony Thene: And I would just add on to that because you mentioned structural specifically, and that's a very good point. Certainly, as the market grows and we want it all to grow, and you see that structural business get higher, that could have an impact. Now just because something that's at a lower price doesn't necessarily mean it's a lower margin, right, because it has a different process flow. But we've been able to offset any of those type of mix movements with some of our other levers. So Hopefully, that was -- that answered your question.
David Strauss: Yes. Yes. And then -- I appreciate that. That's helpful. And then on the price per pound discussion with regard to SAO, how do we kind of reconcile flattish price with, I think, relatively slight year-over-year with engine up so much year-over-year? I thought you were kind of implying or my understanding is engine price per pound would be higher than kind of structural and fasteners. So just asking kind of how do we reconcile that?
Tony Thene: Yes. I'll tell you this, David, I don't want to get into a habit of giving price movement by every submarket. But it is a good question. And I will say, remember, we're about 65% aerospace. So that number you saw was total CRS. You saw some improvement, some higher sales in some of our non-aerospace markets that have traditionally a lower price. I will give you this that if you look at aero only year-over-year, price is up almost 10%. So that's the real driver. It is so mix dependent. But from an aero only standpoint, you see that continue to go up. As you see other non-aero businesses or submarkets increase in volume, that's a good thing for overall earnings that could have a more of a lowering the impact on the overall Carpenter total price per pound.
Operator: I would now like to hand the call back to John Huyette for closing remarks.
John Huyette: Thank you, operator, and thank you, everyone, for joining us today for our fiscal year 2026 third quarter conference call. Have a great rest of your day.
Operator: Thank you for attending today's call. You may now disconnect. Goodbye.