Stocks/CLDX

CLDX

Celldex Therapeutics, Inc.
Healthcare·Biotechnology
$31.43
$2.1B market cap
Claude Rating
4/10UNDERWEIGHT
Revenue
$0.8M
Free Cash Flow
$-226.3M
Rev Growth
-97.8%
FCF Margin
-27591.3%
P/FCF
--
EV/FCF
--
Fwd EV/EBITDA
--
Fair Value
$26.00
Upside
-17.3%

Celldex Therapeutics, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, engages in developing therapeutic monoclonal and bispecific antibodies for the treatment of various diseases. Its drug candidates include antibody-based therapeutics to treat patients with inflammatory diseases and various forms of cancer. The company's clinical development programs CDX-0159, a Phase I monoclonal antibody that binds the receptor tyrosine kinase KIT and inhibits its activity; CDX-1140, a human agonist monoclonal antibody ta

2-Year Price History

$30.73-7.7%
$20$25$30$35$40volMay 24Sep 24Jan 25May 25Sep 25Jan 26May 26

Quarterly Financials & Projections

Quarterly Waterfall ($ M)
PeriodRevEBITDAOpInNIOCFFCFCapExCashDebtSharesROICIntCovEV/EBITDA
Est2027-Q40.4-92.0---88.0---84.0-2.0-136.5----------
Est2027-Q30.3-87.0---84.0---81.0-1.8-52.5----------
Est2027-Q20.3-84.0---81.0---78.0-1.828.5----------
Est2027-Q10.3-81.0---78.0---75.0-1.8106.5----------
Est2026-Q40.3-75.0---72.0---69.0-1.5181.5----------
Est2026-Q30.3-69.0---66.0---63.0-1.5250.5----------
Est2026-Q20.4-76.0---72.0---70.0-1.6313.5----------
Est2026-Q10.4-74.0---70.0---68.0-1.6383.5----------
Act2026-Q10.0-83.6-84.4-78.7-65.6-67.2-1.6451.51.966.6-217.1%----
Act2025-Q40.1-80.5-87.2-81.4-63.9-65.2-1.0518.62.366.5-151.3%----
Act2025-Q30.0-72.8-73.6-67.0-48.6-49.1-0.4583.22.666.4-96.0%----
Act2025-Q20.7-63.0-63.9-56.6-44.0-44.7-0.7630.33.066.4-69.1%----
Act2025-Q10.7-61.9-62.7-53.8-54.4-54.6-0.3673.33.466.4-59.2%----
Act2024-Q41.2-55.2-56.0-47.1-32.5-33.2-0.8725.33.866.4-47.1%----
Act2024-Q33.2-51.3-52.1-42.1-55.3-55.9-0.6756.03.166.3-40.0%----
Act2024-Q22.5-45.5-46.3-35.8-29.3-29.6-0.3802.32.466.0-33.2%----
Act2024-Q10.2-39.8-40.6-32.8-40.6-41.0-0.3823.92.158.9-27.5%----
Act2023-Q44.1-34.4-47.6-43.3-32.5-33.2-0.7421.72.552.0-103.0%-11.1x--
Act2023-Q31.5-40.5-41.2-38.3-19.0-19.2-0.2235.42.947.3<-999%----
Act2023-Q20.3-32.5-33.2-30.5-27.2-27.6-0.4252.73.347.3<-999%----
Act2023-Q11.0-31.8-32.5-29.4-28.6-29.2-0.6278.43.747.2-402.4%----
Act2022-Q41.6-27.2-27.9-26.5-21.8-22.0-0.2305.04.047.1-195.9%----
Act2022-Q30.4-27.0-27.7-26.8-35.2-35.5-0.3323.53.646.9-144.1%----
Act2022-Q20.2-27.0-36.4-36.0-22.2-22.9-0.7356.84.046.8-148.0%----
Act2022-Q10.2-23.0-23.3-23.1-24.5-25.1-0.6380.52.646.7-70.5%----

AI Analysis

LLM Evaluations

Claude4/10UNDERWEIGHTFV: $26.00

Celldex is a binary clinical-stage biotech bet centered on barzolvolimab's Phase 3 outcomes in CSU and prurigo nodularis. The science is promising (anti-KIT mechanism, strong Phase 2 data), but the stock trades at ~$2.1B market cap with zero meaningful revenue, accelerating losses (~$260M/year), and now ~76M+ diluted shares post the April 2026 offering. At 3.8x P/B, CLDX is pricing in significant probability of approval and blockbuster commercialization. With 15% short interest, 19 days to cover, and Phase 3 data readouts as the key catalyst, this is a high-conviction binary setup. The risk/reward at current levels is roughly fair for a Phase 3 asset with validated mechanism, but the recent dilution, accelerating burn, and competitive landscape (dupilumab, omalizumab incumbents, plus emerging anti-KIT competitors) limit upside skew. Net insider buying is encouraging but insufficient to offset the fundamental uncertainty.

Catalyst Phase 3 topline data for barzolvolimab in CSU (expected 2H 2026 or early 2027) is the single most important catalyst. Positive data would validate a multi-billion dollar peak sales opportunity and likely trigger 50-100%+ upside. Negative data would crater the stock 60-80%.
Risk Phase 3 failure or underwhelming efficacy data for barzolvolimab in CSU, which would destroy the majority of the company's enterprise value given the stock is almost entirely pricing in this asset's success.
Trend
DETERIORATING
Mgmt
6/10
Quarter
4/10
Exp. Move
-5.0%

Valuation & Metrics

Market Stats

Price$31.43
Market Cap$2.1B
Enterprise Value$1.6B
P/S Ratio2550.4x
P/FCF--
EV/FCF--
FCF Margin (TTM)-27591.3%
FCF Yield-10.8%
Dividend Yield (TTM)--
Annual Dilution0.3%
CurrencyUSD

TTM Financial Snapshot

Revenue$0.8M
Net Income$-283.7M
Free Cash Flow$-226.3M

Revenue Growth (YoY)-97.8%
EBITDA Margin-36573.4%
Net Margin-34596.2%
FCF Margin-27591.3%
CapEx % of Revenue463.4%
SBC % of Revenue4320.0%
ROIC-133.4%
WC Change % Rev949.1%
Interest Coverage--

DCF Fair Value Estimate

$-4.19
-113.3% upside
Fair Enterprise Value$-2.8B
− Net Debt$-450M
= Fair Equity$-279M
Revenue Growth-7.1% → 8.0%
FCF Margin-27591.3% → 25.0%
Discount Rate18.0%
Terminal EV/FCF20.0x

Forward Outlook & Risk

Short Interest

Short % of Float12.4%
Short Shares7.6M
Days to Cover9.4
Change (vs Prior)-8.5%
Short % Float History
12.40%-2.30pp
11.0%12.0%13.0%14.0%15.0%04-3007-1509-1511-1401-1504-30

Options

Call IV (ATM)51%
Put IV (ATM)52%
ATM Spread2.9%
Call $OI (near money)$324K
Put $OI (near money)$2.5M
ATM ExpiryJuly 17, 2026 (56D)
ATM Strike$31.0
Major Expirations8
Near-money chain · July 17, 2026
StrikeCall Bid/AskCall OIPut Bid/AskPut OI
$27.00$2.70/$7.500$0.35/$1.350
$28.00$2.00/$6.700$0.90/$1.651
$29.00$2.10/$5.300$1.05/$2.051
$30.00$2.60/$3.300$0.20/$2.501
$31.00$1.95/$2.850$2.00/$3.001
$32.00$1.75/$2.500$2.45/$3.701
$33.00$0.20/$2.201$2.20/$4.201
$34.00$1.00/$1.900$2.50/$5.700
Snapshot: 2026-05-22

Forward Projections & Estimates

NTM Revenue Growth+70.7%
Forward FCF Margin-19285.7%
Forward EBITDA Margin-21000.0%
Forward P/FCF--
Forward EV/FCF--
Forward Int. Coverage--
Model Risk Score10/10
Bankruptcy Odds5%
Est. Borrow Rate15.0%
Terminal EV/FCF20.0x
LT Growth15.0%
LT FCF Margin25.0%

Employees

Headcount186
Revenue / Employee$4,409
Gross Profit / Employee$-183
2022: 148 → 2023: 160 → 2024: 186 → 2025: 198 (10% CAGR)

Cash Runway

23.9months
WATCH

Institutional Ownership

Headline & net flow

NET BUYING

In Q1 2026 so far (quarter still filing), institutions are net buyers — bought 13.3% of float, sold 11.6%. 3 filers moved >1% of shares (1 buying, 2 selling).

Net flow · Q1 2026still filing
+1.7% of float (net)
Bought 13.3% · Sold 11.6%
230 filers reported (last quarter: 187)

Ownership composition

Active
88.9%(+36.4% YoY)
206 filers
hedge / family / endowment
Retail funds
Fidelity, Schwab, 401(k)
Passive
17.9%(+5.1% YoY)
5 filers
Vanguard, iShares, SPDR
Market makers
0.3%(+0.0% YoY)
7 filers
Citadel, Susquehanna
Insiders
1.7%
Form 4 — latest per insider
0%25%50%75%100%2022-062023-032023-122024-092025-062026-03
ActiveRetail fundsPassiveMarket makersRetail direct

Top holders

Fund$ valueCost basisΔ QoQΔ YoYα lifeFund AUM
WELLINGTON MANAGEMENT GROUP LLP$272M$35.32+$15.3M+$6.5M+0.1%$533.98B
Kynam Capital Management, LP$185M$27.41−$3.3M−$20.9M+0.9%$1.58B
BlackRock, Inc.Passive$170M$32.86−$2.6M−$4.9M-0.2%$5.69T
FMR LLC$119M$37.81−$36.7M−$51.7M+0.3%$1.89T
Point72 Asset Management, L.P.$102M$32.34+$46.7M+$19.3M+0.9%$54.88B
STATE STREET CORPPassive$88.9M$30.66−$18.8M−$69K-0.2%$2.89T
Commodore Capital LP$85.5M$25.63+$4.2M−$16.0M+0.0%$1.73B
PRICE T ROWE ASSOCIATES INC /MD/$66.2M$36.22+$1.5M−$42.0M-0.2%$864.93B
Eversept Partners, LP$56.7M$29.17+$11.2M+$34.6M-2.9%$1.52B
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLCPassive$53.6M$35.44+$1.9M+$3.1M+2.3%$1.61T
BRAIDWELL LP$43.0M$26.75−$15.9M+$43.0M-1.8%$2.63B
Deep Track Capital, LP$40.7M$23.63−$19.6M−$22.7M-1.1%$4.85B
MILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC$39.8M$27.24+$1.3M+$27.1M-0.5%$127.40B
Vestal Point Capital, LP$38.8M$21.48+$1.9M+$32.5M-0.1%$3.58B
Bellevue Group AG$38.1M$30.82−$76.7M−$59.4M-4.3%$4.20B
Novo Holdings A/S$38.1M$33.23+$0+$0-2.6%$1.23B
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LPPassive$33.6M$28.87+$12.9M+$33.6M-0.4%$480.92B
EVENTIDE ASSET MANAGEMENT, LLC$32.9M$34.22−$19.2M−$86.2M-1.6%$5.96B
Fisher Asset Management, LLC$32.2M$26.77+$2.4M+$4.5M+0.1%$294.89B
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC$31.4M$32.53−$2.5M+$9.3M-0.2%$760.93B
Cost basis is a volume-weighted estimate from accumulation periods within our 13F history; holders who built their position before our window started will show a stale basis. % above the cost basis is the unrealized gain at the current price.

Trading behavior

Smart-money alpha (lifetime, %/qtr)BULLISH
Holders
-0.14%
avg per quarter
Holders (ex-self)
-0.10%
excl. this stock
Buyers (this Q)
-0.10%
103 buyers · $0.36B in
Sellers (this Q)
-2.77%
73 sellers · $0.09B out
alpha coverage: 100% of $ has a lifetime-alpha record
Holder behavior on this stocksource: stock
On big dips (−10%+)
+3.0%
how holders react when this stock falls
On quiet Qs
-12.0%
−10% to +10% baseline
On rallies (+10%+)
+4.2%
how they react when this stock rises
Holders' portfolio flow this Q
-1.0%
outflows — trims may be forced
Sellers' portfolio flow this Q
-9.0%
Sellers shed AUM broadly — partly forced.
▸ Compare to holder-profile behavior (across all their stocks)
Holder dip (any stock)
-3.0%
Holder mid (any stock)
-2.7%
Holder rally (any stock)
-8.4%

Top-5 holders · 38.9%

WELLINGTON MANAGEMENT GROUP LLP--
Kynam Capital Management, LP--
BlackRock, Inc.--
FMR LLC--
Point72 Asset Management, L.P.--
Put / call ratio: 0.48 (-183.2% QoQ) net bullish options

Top Holders Over Time

5-year share-count history (top 10 holders by peak, incl. exited) + price

08.8M17.5M26.3M35.1M$18$25$31$38$452021-062022-062023-062024-062025-062026-03
hover the chart for per-quarter detailprice (right axis)
FMR LLC3.7MWELLINGTON MANAGEMENT GROUP LLP8.6MRTW INVESTMENTS, LPKynam Capital Management, LP5.8MRedmile Group, LLC262KEVENTIDE ASSET MANAGEMENT, LLC1.0MPRICE T ROWE ASSOCIATES INC /MD/2.1MPolar Capital Holdings PlcBellevue Group AG1.2MPoint72 Asset Management, L.P.3.2M

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Analyst Coverage

Analyst Coverage
Price Targets
Last Quarter (3 analysts)$49.005590.0%
Last Year (6 analysts)$36.171510.0%
Current Price$31.43

Corporate

Executive Compensation (2023-2025)

Direct Pay$23.6M
Incentive & Other$87.7M
Total Compensation$111.3M
% of Revenue770.0%

Insider Trading (last 12mo)

Open-market only (Form 4 P-Purchase + S-Sale). Excludes grants, option exercises, tax withholding, gifts.
Officers & directors
Buys ($, 12mo)
$0
0 txns · 0 insiders · 0 sh
Sells ($, 12mo)
$1.32M
3 txns · 2 insiders · 54,235 sh
Recent transactions
DateSideInsiderTitleSharesPriceDollarsOwned $
2025-12-04SELLJimenez Freddy A.officer: SVP & GENERAL COUNSEL4,166$29.09$121K$896K
2025-11-13SELLWright Richard M.other: Former Officer49,298$24.00$1.18M$500K
2025-08-13SELLJimenez Freddy A.officer: SVP & GENERAL COUNSEL771$24.77$19K$866K

Order Flow (FINRA, ~3w lag)

19.9%retail-0.2pp
32.2%dark+2.6pp
week of 2026-04-13
10%20%30%40%50%24-1125-0225-0525-0825-1126-0226-04retail (non-ATS)dark (ATS)
Off-exchange volume from FINRA. Retail = non-ATS (wholesaler PFOF + broker internalization). Dark = ATS (dark-pool crossing networks, institutional). Lit-exchange = remainder.

Revenue Breakdown

Revenue Segments

By Product (2026-Q1)
Grant$0.0M-98%

Filing Risk Analysis

Filing Risk Scores

Celldex Therapeutics: High-Velocity Cash Burn and Strategic Dilution Fueling Phase 3 Ambitions

Overall Risk
6/10
Fraud
2/10
Dilution
9/10
Insolvency
4/10
Earnings Overstated
2/10
Hidden Liabilities
5/10
Legal
3/10
Audit Warnings
2/10
Hidden Upside
7/10
Contextually Acceptable
9/10

Counter-Thesis

Counter-Thesis & Recent News

📰 Recent News

On April 2, 2026, Celldex announced a massive $300 million underwritten public offering of 10,345,000 shares at $29.00 per share. This caused an immediate 2.7% drop in stock price as investors reacted to the significant dilution. This move follows a report of a $110.4 million net loss for the first half of 2025, a steep increase from the $68.7 million loss in the same period of 2024 (Investing.com, Celldex IR).

🐻 Bear Case

The core bear case centers on a staggering disconnect between valuation and fundamentals. As of March 2026, Celldex reported annual losses of $258.76 million against a negligible revenue of just $1.55 million. The company is essentially a pre-revenue 'burn machine' trading at a Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio of 3.8x, significantly higher than the broader US biotech average of 2.2x. Any delay or failure in the Phase III trials for barzolvolimab in chronic spontaneous urticaria (CSU) would likely lead to a catastrophic re-valuation (Simply Wall St, Public.com).

🚩 Red Flags

Despite earlier claims that cash reserves were sufficient through 2027, the company's decision to dilute shareholders with a $300 million raise in April 2026 suggests the actual burn rate is accelerating faster than projected. Furthermore, net losses nearly doubled year-over-year in the most recent mid-year reporting, signaling that 'commercial readiness' costs for barzolvolimab are cannibalizing the balance sheet (Celldex IR, Investing.com).

⚔️ Competitive Threats

Celldex faces intense competition in the inflammatory and mast-cell mediated disease space. Analysts have noted that 'clinical hiccups' or regulatory delays could allow established biologics and emerging immunotherapy competitors to seize market share. Specifically, the company is racing against well-funded incumbents in the CSU and prurigo nodularis markets where any loss of 'best-in-disease' status would be fatal to the stock's premium (MarketBeat, Public.com).

💬 Customer Sentiment

While scientific sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, investor and analyst sentiment is beginning to fracture. Currently, 10% of analysts covering the stock have issued an outright 'Sell' rating, with another 10% advising to 'Hold.' This shift suggests that the market's patience for clinical data is wearing thin as the financial costs of reaching commercialization mount (Public.com).