Stocks/CHCI

CHCI

Comstock Holding Companies, Inc.
Real Estate·Real Estate - Diversified
$15.24
$153M market cap
Claude Rating
3/10SELL
Revenue
$67.7M
Free Cash Flow
$-3.0M
Rev Growth
+38.0%
FCF Margin
-4.5%
P/FCF
--
EV/FCF
--
Fwd EV/EBITDA
10.4x
Fair Value
$7.50
Upside
-50.8%

Comstock Holding Companies, Inc. develops, operates, and manages of mixed-use and transit-oriented properties primarily in the Washington, D.C. metropolitan area. The company operates a portfolio of 34 operating assets, which include 14 commercial assets totaling approximately 2.2 million square feet; 6 multifamily assets totaling 1,636 units; and 14 commercial garages with approximately 11,000 parking spaces. It also has 18 development pipeline assets consisting of approximately 2.0 million squ

2-Year Price History

$14.86+147.7%
$6.0$8.0$10$12$14$16$18volJun 24Oct 24Jan 25May 25Sep 25Jan 26May 26

Quarterly Financials & Projections

Quarterly Waterfall ($ M)
PeriodRevEBITDAOpInNIOCFFCFCapExCashDebtSharesROICIntCovEV/EBITDA
Est2027-Q428.08.7--8.1--5.6-0.132.3----------
Est2027-Q316.01.8--1.1---0.5-0.126.7----------
Est2027-Q215.82.5--1.7--1.7-0.127.2----------
Est2027-Q115.02.0--1.4--0.2-0.225.5----------
Est2026-Q426.07.8--7.3--4.7-0.125.3----------
Est2026-Q314.81.5--0.9---0.7-0.120.6----------
Est2026-Q214.52.2--1.5--1.5-0.121.4----------
Est2026-Q113.81.8--1.2--0.3-0.119.9----------
Act2026-Q117.51.61.52.0-5.8-5.8-0.019.65.110.510.0%--13.9x
Act2025-Q423.97.87.813.55.33.9-1.431.35.410.558.7%--9.8x
Act2025-Q313.31.10.70.5-3.2-3.3-0.026.25.610.54.3%--8.3x
Act2025-Q213.02.21.81.52.22.2-0.030.55.810.411.6%--5.3x
Act2025-Q112.61.81.71.60.60.4-0.228.36.110.414.6%--5.2x
Act2024-Q416.95.25.110.37.87.7-0.128.86.310.453.2%--7.3x
Act2024-Q313.02.92.82.43.33.2-0.121.16.510.332.2%--6.6x
Act2024-Q210.81.31.21.01.31.3-0.017.46.710.313.3%--4.1x
Act2024-Q110.61.21.20.9-1.7-1.9-0.216.26.910.214.8%--3.9x
Act2023-Q411.01.61.91.99.49.4-0.018.87.110.231.0%--4.0x
Act2023-Q314.55.35.34.72.01.9-0.110.97.310.183.9%--4.2x
Act2023-Q29.00.70.60.50.20.1-0.19.07.510.110.5%--6.2x
Act2023-Q110.31.01.30.8-2.6-2.7-0.19.17.710.125.0%2.4x4.7x
Act2022-Q49.31.71.61.36.56.5-0.111.77.910.131.3%12.9x4.2x
Act2022-Q312.83.93.93.62.42.3-0.15.47.110.095.0%41.8x--
Act2022-Q28.51.21.10.71.31.0-0.38.412.89.216.9%16.9x--
Act2022-Q18.71.41.41.8-2.2-2.3-0.211.612.99.025.2%23.9x--
Historical Valuation

Multiples vs the company's own history — cheap or rich relative to itself? Historical fiscal years, then TTM, then forward projections (E). Forward rows hold today's price against projected earnings, so the multiple compresses if the company grows into it.

YearPriceRev GrEBITDA %EBITDAEV/EBITDAEV/FCFP/EP/S
20224.2520.8%84.2×4.6×5.2×1.0×
20234.43+13.8%19.3%94.0×4.0×6.0×1.0×
20248.08+14.7%20.6%117.3×7.5×6.8×1.9×
202511.62+22.6%20.5%139.8×39.9×8.9×2.4×
TTM15.24+27.0%18.7%130.0×0.0×0.0×0.0×
2026E15.24+2.1%0.2%00.0×0.0×0.0×0.0×
2027E15.24+8.3%0.2%00.0×0.0×0.0×0.0×

EBITDA in reporting-currency $M. Historical multiples use year-end market cap (split-adjusted price history); TTM & forward years use today's.

AI Analysis

LLM Evaluations

Claude3/10SELLFV: $7.50

CHCI is a governance-compromised captive asset manager masquerading as an independent public company. With ~90% of revenue from entities controlled by the CEO, reported earnings inflated by non-cash tax benefits, and a massive disconnect between net income ($17.1M) and operating cash flow ($4.8M), the stock is fundamentally mispriced at $17.50/share ($184M market cap). The 41.5x P/FCF multiple on just $4.4M of actual free cash flow is egregious for what is essentially a fee-for-service business with extreme related-party risk and no arm's-length revenue validation. The data center JV pivot adds speculative narrative but zero near-term cash flow. At normalized FCF of ~$5-6M annually, fair value is roughly $7-8/share using a generous 12x FCF multiple, implying 55%+ downside.

Catalyst A slowdown in D.C. metro commercial real estate, federal government budget cuts impacting Northern Virginia office demand, or any liquidity issue at Comstock Partners (the private entity) would expose the captive nature of revenues and compress multiples sharply. Increased scrutiny of related-party transactions or a short seller report could also trigger re-rating.
Risk The single biggest risk to a short thesis is that the CEO continues to grow the private portfolio and fees compound, or the AI data center JV materializes into meaningful cash flow, creating a narrative that sustains or expands the multiple despite governance concerns.
Trend
DETERIORATING
Mgmt
3/10
Quarter
6/10
Exp. Move
-3.0%

Valuation & Metrics

Market Stats

Price$15.24
Market Cap$153M
Enterprise Value$138M
P/S Ratio2.3x
P/FCF--
EV/FCF--
FCF Margin (TTM)-4.5%
FCF Yield-2.0%
Dividend Yield (TTM)--
Annual Dilution1.2%
CurrencyUSD

TTM Financial Snapshot

Revenue$67.7M
Net Income$17.4M
Free Cash Flow$-3.0M

Revenue Growth (YoY)+38.0%
EBITDA Margin18.7%
Net Margin25.8%
FCF Margin-4.5%
CapEx % of Revenue2.2%
SBC % of Revenue2.0%
ROIC21.2%
WC Change % Rev-25.2%
Interest Coverage--

DCF Fair Value Estimate

$7.59
-50.2% upside
Fair Enterprise Value$65M
− Net Debt$-15M
= Fair Equity$80M
Revenue Growth8.2% → 4.0%
FCF Margin-4.5% → 8.0%
Discount Rate16.0%
Terminal EV/FCF10.0x

Forward Outlook & Risk

Short Interest

Short % of Float0.5%
Short Shares0.0M
Days to Cover1.4
Change (vs Prior)-26.0%
Short % Float History
0.50%+0.00pp
0.5%0.6%0.7%0.8%0.9%1.0%04-3007-1509-1511-1401-1504-30

Forward Projections & Estimates

NTM Revenue Growth+2.1%
Forward FCF Margin8.2%
Forward EBITDA Margin19.2%
Forward P/FCF27.0x
Forward EV/FCF24.4x
Forward Int. Coverage--
Model Risk Score8/10
Bankruptcy Odds2%
Est. Borrow Rate8.5%
Terminal EV/FCF10.0x
LT Growth4.0%
LT FCF Margin8.0%

Employees

Headcount206
Revenue / Employee$328,485
Gross Profit / Employee$73,806
2022: 152 → 2023: 172 → 2024: 206 → 2025: 0

Institutional Ownership

Headline & net flow

NET BUYING

In Q1 2026 so far (quarter still filing), institutions are net buyers — bought 5.7% of float, sold 2.0%. 1 filer moved >1% of shares (1 buying, 0 selling).

Net flow · Q1 2026still filing
+3.7% of float (net)
Bought 5.7% · Sold 2.0%
34 filers reported (last quarter: 31)

Ownership composition

Active
12.6%(+10.9% YoY)
26 filers
hedge / family / endowment
Retail funds
Fidelity, Schwab, 401(k)
Passive
5.0%(+2.5% YoY)
7 filers
Vanguard, iShares, SPDR
Market makers
0.1%(+0.1% YoY)
1 filers
Citadel, Susquehanna
Insiders
5.5%
Form 4 — latest per insider
0%25%50%75%100%2022-062023-032023-122024-092025-062026-03
ActiveRetail fundsPassiveMarket makersRetail direct

Top holders

Fund$ valueCost basisΔ QoQΔ YoYα lifeFund AUM
Truffle Hound Capital, LLC$6.6M$12.13+$0+$6.6M+2.3%$163M
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLCPassive$3.8M$18.94+$3.8M+$3.8M$4.04T
RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC$3.4M$10.86+$61K+$460K+1.2%$63.91B
Mink Brook Asset Management LLC$2.3M$17.94+$2.0M+$2.3M-0.2%$179M
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLCPassive$1.6M$6.53+$16K−$1.4M+2.3%$1.61T
Saber Capital Managment, LLC$1.4M$11.95+$61K+$1.4M+4.6%$129M
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LPPassive$964K$10.17+$70K+$300K-0.4%$480.92B
CORSAIR CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P.$933K$7.28+$72K+$23K+0.6%$673M
Round Rock Advisors, LLC$479K$18.94+$479K+$479K-0.2%$652M
GatePass Capital, LLC$452K$8.08+$0+$0+1.6%$206M
BlackRock, Inc.Passive$425K$12.58+$13K+$288K-0.2%$5.69T
MILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC$407K$18.94+$407K+$407K-0.5%$127.40B
VANGUARD FIDUCIARY TRUST COPassive$399K$18.94+$399K+$399K$395.83B
Bristlecone Value Partners, LLC$392K$11.62+$0+$392K+5.2%$114M
BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/$383K$9.45+$0+$382K-0.1%$1.36T
683 Capital Management, LLC$369K$11.62−$277K+$369K-2.2%$1.02B
CITADEL ADVISORS LLC$362K$15.17+$29K+$362K-0.4%$138.22B
STATE STREET CORPPassive$317K$10.83+$0+$19K-0.2%$2.89T
Wealthspire Advisors, LLC$281K$18.94+$54K+$281K$12.72B
NAVELLIER & ASSOCIATES INC$275K$14.64+$78K+$275K+0.7%$960M
Cost basis is a volume-weighted estimate from accumulation periods within our 13F history; holders who built their position before our window started will show a stale basis. % above the cost basis is the unrealized gain at the current price.

Trading behavior

Smart-money alpha (lifetime, %/qtr)BULLISH
Holders
+1.55%
avg per quarter
Holders (ex-self)
+1.46%
excl. this stock
Buyers (this Q)
+0.78%
20 buyers · $0.01B in
Sellers (this Q)
+0.21%
8 sellers · $-0.00B out
alpha coverage: 84% of $ has a lifetime-alpha record
Holder behavior on this stocksource: stock
On big dips (−10%+)
+0.5%
how holders react when this stock falls
On quiet Qs
-0.7%
−10% to +10% baseline
On rallies (+10%+)
-2.0%
how they react when this stock rises
Holders' portfolio flow this Q
-0.6%
outflows — trims may be forced
Sellers' portfolio flow this Q
+12.3%
Sellers grew AUM elsewhere — opinionated cut of this stock.
▸ Compare to holder-profile behavior (across all their stocks)
Holder dip (any stock)
-8.2%
Holder mid (any stock)
-6.6%
Holder rally (any stock)
-7.3%

Top Holders Over Time

5-year share-count history (top 10 holders by peak, incl. exited) + price

0211K423K634K846K$3.97$7.71$11$15$192021-062022-062023-062024-062025-062026-03
hover the chart for per-quarter detailprice (right axis)
Truffle Hound Capital, LLC350KRENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC180KMink Brook Asset Management LLC120KSaber Capital Managment, LLC72KCORSAIR CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P.49KInformed Momentum Co LLCRound Rock Advisors, LLC25KGatePass Capital, LLC24KUBS Group AG3KMILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC21K

Analyst Coverage

Analyst Coverage
Consensus Estimates
QuarterRevenueEBITDANet IncEPSEPS Range# Analysts
2006 Q139M3M1M$0.71$0.57 – $0.8510
2006 Q218M-45M-31M$5.10$4.08 – $6.1214
2006 Q33M-66M-46M$-1.85$-2.22 – $-1.4813
2007 Q193M-2M-2M$-2.08$-2.49 – $-1.6613
2007 Q295M-5M-4M$-1.33$-1.60 – $-1.067
2007 Q37M-349M-216M$-12.23$-14.68 – $-9.7813
2008 Q130M9M9M$6.62$5.29 – $7.9418
2008 Q288M-5M-3M$-1.24$-1.50 – $-0.9912
2008 Q36M-326M-202M$-11.44$-13.73 – $-9.1414
2025 Q313M3M0M$0.00$0.00 – $0.000

Corporate

Executive Compensation (2023-2025)

Direct Pay$18.8M
Incentive & Other$0.2M
Total Compensation$19.0M
% of Revenue11.5%

Insider Trading (last 12mo)

Open-market only (Form 4 P-Purchase + S-Sale). Excludes grants, option exercises, tax withholding, gifts.
Officers & directors
Buys ($, 12mo)
$0
0 txns · 0 insiders · 0 sh
Sells ($, 12mo)
$883K
18 txns · 4 insiders · 65,713 sh
Recent transactions
DateSideInsiderTitleSharesPriceDollarsOwned $
2026-05-21SELLSteffan Timothyofficer: Chief Operating Officer13,026$14.23$185K$1.75M
2026-03-23SELLSteffan Timothyofficer: Chief Operating Officer9,740$15.61$152K$1.81M
2025-08-20SELLSteffan Timothyofficer: Chief Operating Officer1,054$15.54$16K$1.42M
2025-08-19SELLSteffan Timothyofficer: Chief Operating Officer3,430$15.66$54K$1.45M
2025-08-15SELLSteffan Timothyofficer: Chief Operating Officer905$14.99$14K$1.44M
2025-08-14SELLMACCUTCHEON JAMES Adirector2,292$15.06$35K$2.13M
2025-08-13SELLGuthrie Christopher Michaelofficer: Chief Financial Officer & EVP1,633$15.07$25K$1.78M
2025-08-13SELLMACCUTCHEON JAMES Adirector3,630$15.09$55K$2.16M
2025-08-12SELLSteffan Timothyofficer: Chief Operating Officer4,611$14.79$68K$1.43M
2025-08-12SELLMACCUTCHEON JAMES Adirector1,000$15.04$15K$2.21M
2025-08-12SELLGuthrie Christopher Michaelofficer: Chief Financial Officer & EVP4,367$14.82$65K$1.77M
2025-08-11SELLMACCUTCHEON JAMES Adirector25$15.00$375$2.22M
2025-06-06SELLGUERNSEY DAVID Mdirector3,340$10.00$33K$465K
2025-06-06SELLSteffan Timothyofficer: Chief Operating Officer4,030$10.00$40K$1.02M
2025-06-05SELLGUERNSEY DAVID Mdirector6,660$10.01$67K$499K
2025-06-05SELLSteffan Timothyofficer: Chief Operating Officer4,425$10.00$44K$1.06M
2025-06-04SELLSteffan Timothyofficer: Chief Operating Officer1,345$10.00$13K$1.10M
2025-06-03SELLSteffan Timothyofficer: Chief Operating Officer200$10.00$2K$1.11M

Order Flow (FINRA, ~3w lag)

19.6%retail-18.1pp
23.3%dark+3.4pp
week of 2026-04-13
0%20%40%60%80%24-1125-0225-0525-0825-1126-0226-04retail (non-ATS)dark (ATS)
Off-exchange volume from FINRA. Retail = non-ATS (wholesaler PFOF + broker internalization). Dark = ATS (dark-pool crossing networks, institutional). Lit-exchange = remainder.

Revenue Breakdown

Revenue Segments

By Product (2026-Q1)
Fixed-Price Contract$3.0M+119%

Filing Risk Analysis

Filing Risk Scores

Comstock Holding Companies, Inc.: A Captive Related-Party Fee Machine with Deteriorating Cash Quality

Overall Risk
7/10
Fraud
4/10
Dilution
5/10
Insolvency
3/10
Earnings Overstated
8/10
Hidden Liabilities
4/10
Legal
3/10
Audit Warnings
5/10
Hidden Upside
6/10
Contextually Acceptable
3/10

Counter-Thesis

Counter-Thesis & Recent News

📰 Recent News

As of March 2026, CHCI reported strong annual revenue of $62.9M, but quarterly performance shows a concerning 'choppy' trend. Following a massive FY2024 Q4 ($10.33M net income), subsequent quarters in 2025 saw a sharp decline, with Q3 2025 net income falling to just $0.5M ($0.05 EPS). Critics note that recent net income figures were significantly inflated by a one-time $4.1M income tax benefit and a $7.5M valuation allowance release rather than core operational growth (Source: Simply Wall St, Stock Titan).

🐻 Bear Case

The primary bear case rests on poor earnings quality and unsustainable growth drivers. For FY2025, free cash flow ($4.4M) was significantly lower than reported net income ($17.1M), indicating a high accrual ratio that suggests earnings are driven by accounting maneuvers rather than cash generation. Furthermore, the company's 'asset-light' model is entirely dependent on its private partner; if development projects stall or the private entity faces liquidity issues, CHCI's management fees—its primary revenue source—could evaporate (Source: Simply Wall St, Reddit ValueInvesting).

🚩 Red Flags

Extremely high related-party exposure is a critical governance risk; as of early 2026, approximately 89.6% of total revenue and 95.8% of accounts receivable were generated from related parties controlled by CEO Christopher Clemente and major shareholder Dwight Schar. This creates massive potential for conflicts of interest. Additionally, the company is hyper-concentrated geographically in the Washington, D.C. Dulles Corridor, making it vulnerable to regional economic shifts or federal budget cuts (Source: Stock Titan, TradingView).

⚔️ Competitive Threats

CHCI faces intense competition from larger, better-capitalized real estate developers and REITs in the D.C. metropolitan area. Unlike diversified national players, CHCI’s narrow focus on transit-oriented developments along the Silver Line means any infrastructure delays or shifts in 'Return to Office' mandates in Northern Virginia could disproportionately impact their managed portfolio's occupancy (currently 87% commercial) (Source: Seeking Alpha, SEC Filing Summary).

💬 Customer Sentiment

Sentiment is difficult to gauge via traditional retail channels because CHCI operates as a 'captive' manager for its own insiders' private holdings. However, negative sentiment exists regarding project execution; the recent termination of a major project in the Town of Herndon and associated litigation against a Comstock-managed venture highlight potential friction with local municipalities and stakeholders which could jeopardize future pipeline growth (Source: Reddit ValueInvesting, March 2026 Financial Summaries).