CBSH
Commerce Bancshares, Inc.Financial Services·Banks - Regional
$52.22
$7.6B market cap
Revenue
$1.1B
Free Cash Flow
$908.9M
Rev Growth
+0.0%
FCF Margin
80.7%
P/FCF
8.4x
EV/FCF
1.1x
Fwd EV/EBITDA
--
Fair Value
--
Upside
--
Commerce Bancshares, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Commerce Bank that provides retail, mortgage banking, corporate, investment, trust, and asset management products and services to individuals and businesses in the United States. It operates through three segments: Consumer, Commercial, and Wealth. The Consumer segment offers various banking products and services, including consumer deposits; consumer loans, such as automobile, motorcycle, marine, tractor/trailer, recreational ve
2-Year Price History
$52.37+2.4%
Quarterly Financials & Projections
Quarterly Waterfall ($ M)
| Period | Rev | EBITDA | OpIn | NI | OCF | FCF | CapEx | Cash | Debt | Shares | ROIC | IntCov | EV/EBITDA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Act | 2026-Q1 | 584.0 | 185.3 | 185.3 | 141.6 | 684.8 | 678.4 | -6.4 | 9,219 | 2,585 | 145.9 | 13.4% | 1.9x | -- |
| Act | 2025-Q4 | 542.8 | 206.0 | 183.3 | 140.7 | 266.3 | 230.5 | -35.9 | 9,899 | 3,002 | 137.6 | 13.5% | 2.3x | -- |
Valuation & Metrics
Market Stats
Price$52.22
Market Cap$7.6B
Enterprise Value$979M
P/S Ratio6.8x
P/FCF8.4x
EV/FCF1.1x
FCF Margin (TTM)80.7%
FCF Yield11.9%
Dividend Yield (TTM)2.6%
Annual Dilution0.0%
CurrencyUSD
TTM Financial Snapshot
Revenue$1.1B
Net Income$282.3M
Free Cash Flow$908.9M
Revenue Growth (YoY)+0.0%
EBITDA Margin34.7%
Net Margin25.1%
FCF Margin80.7%
CapEx % of Revenue3.7%
SBC % of Revenue0.9%
ROIC13.4%
WC Change % Rev0.0%
Interest Coverage2.1x
Forward Outlook & Risk
Short Interest
Short % of Float--
Short Shares5.2M
Days to Cover3.7
Change (vs Prior)-1.2%
Need at least 2 settlement dates for chart
Employees
Headcount4,662
Revenue / Employee$241,690
Gross Profit / Employee$195,769
Institutional Ownership
Headline & net flow
NEUTRAL
Net flow · —still filing
No float data — flow unavailable.
Ownership composition
Active
38.7%(-7.9% YoY)
447 filers
hedge / family / endowment
Retail funds
—
Fidelity, Schwab, 401(k)
Passive
28.7%(-2.4% YoY)
12 filers
Vanguard, iShares, SPDR
Market makers
0.1%(-0.0% YoY)
4 filers
Citadel, Susquehanna
Insiders
—
Form 4 — latest per insider
ActiveRetail fundsPassiveMarket makersRetail direct
Top holders
| Fund | $ value | Cost basis | Δ QoQ | Δ YoY | α life | Fund AUM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BlackRock, Inc.Passive | $636M | $55.19 | +$35.7M | +$55.7M | -0.2% | $5.69T |
| VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLCPassive | $433M | $49.20 | +$433M | +$433M | — | $1.91T |
| STATE STREET CORPPassive | $348M | $51.08 | −$12.4M | +$31.1M | -0.2% | $2.89T |
| COMMERCE BANK | $345M | $52.65 | +$66.4M | +$117M | -0.2% | $20.64B |
| VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLCPassive | $306M | $49.20 | +$306M | +$306M | — | $4.04T |
| AMERICAN CENTURY COMPANIES INC | $306M | $52.34 | +$73.2M | +$117M | +0.7% | $193.48B |
| DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LPPassive | $194M | $51.79 | +$44.0M | +$79.8M | -0.4% | $480.92B |
| GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLCPassive | $146M | $52.75 | +$9.6M | +$22.4M | +2.3% | $1.61T |
| FIRST TRUST ADVISORS LP | $128M | $54.01 | +$12.7M | +$56.1M | +0.1% | $139.72B |
| MORGAN STANLEY | $113M | $53.41 | −$7.2M | −$46.7M | -0.3% | $1.65T |
| Champlain Investment Partners, LLC | $111M | $49.80 | +$56.2M | +$111M | -2.5% | $7.75B |
| WELLS FARGO & COMPANY/MN | $102M | $50.58 | −$1.8M | −$356K | -0.2% | $497.71B |
| BTIM Corp. | $95.2M | $51.51 | −$7.4M | +$23.5M | -0.6% | $12.16B |
| AQR CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC | $91.4M | $54.28 | +$29.0M | +$60.2M | -0.2% | $218.19B |
| JPMORGAN CHASE & CO | $77.8M | $49.71 | −$5.1M | +$629K | -0.2% | $1.47T |
| UBS Group AG | $64.2M | $58.96 | +$4.5M | +$3.9M | -0.3% | $562.11B |
| VICTORY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT INC | $62.3M | $51.31 | +$6.0M | +$58.5M | -0.2% | $156.12B |
| NORTHERN TRUST CORPPassive | $60.8M | $56.59 | +$3.9M | −$1.6M | -0.2% | $755.34B |
| CHARLES SCHWAB INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC | $58.8M | $51.13 | +$6.8M | +$7.6M | +0.7% | $645.81B |
| RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC | $50.9M | $54.40 | −$148K | +$20.0M | +1.2% | $63.91B |
Cost basis is a volume-weighted estimate from accumulation periods within our 13F history; holders who built their position before our window started will show a stale basis. % above the cost basis is the unrealized gain at the current price.
Trading behavior
Smart-money alpha (lifetime, %/qtr)NEUTRAL
Holders
-0.12%
avg per quarter
Holders (ex-self)
-0.11%
excl. this stock
Buyers (this Q)
-0.32%
171 buyers · $1.23B in
Sellers (this Q)
-0.29%
155 sellers · $0.31B out
alpha coverage: 85% of $ has a lifetime-alpha record
Holder behavior on this stocksource: stock
On big dips (−10%+)
-3.0%
how holders react when this stock falls
On quiet Qs
+3.1%
−10% to +10% baseline
On rallies (+10%+)
-8.0%
how they react when this stock rises
Holders' portfolio flow this Q
+2.9%
inflows — adds are organic
Sellers' portfolio flow this Q
+2.4%
Sellers grew AUM elsewhere — opinionated cut of this stock.
▸ Compare to holder-profile behavior (across all their stocks)
Holder dip (any stock)
-3.2%
Holder mid (any stock)
-1.9%
Holder rally (any stock)
-5.1%
Biggest decreases this quarter
NFJ INVESTMENT GROUP, LLCexited−$42.4MTUDOR INVESTMENT CORP ET ALexited−$37.7MLAZARD ASSET MANAGEMENT LLCexited−$17.9MSTATE STREET CORP−$12.4Mα-0.2BTIM Corp.−$7.4Mα-0.6MORGAN STANLEY−$7.2Mα-0.3Engineers Gate Manager LPexited−$6.0MJPMORGAN CHASE & CO−$5.1Mα-0.2GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC−$4.7Mα-0.2TWINBEECH CAPITAL LPexited−$4.5M
New buyers this quarter
Top-5 holders · 40.4%
BlackRock, Inc.--
VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC--
STATE STREET CORP--
COMMERCE BANK--
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC--
Top Holders Over Time
5-year share-count history (top 10 holders by peak, incl. exited) + price
hover the chart for per-quarter detailprice (right axis)
Aristotle Capital Management, LLC7KCOMMERCE BANK7.0MLAZARD ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC—AMERICAN CENTURY COMPANIES INC6.2MMORGAN STANLEY2.3MWELLS FARGO & COMPANY/MN2.1MCITADEL ADVISORS LLC748KFIRST TRUST ADVISORS LP2.6MBTIM Corp.1.9MJPMORGAN CHASE & CO1.6M
Analyst Coverage
Analyst Coverage
Price Targets
Last Quarter (1 analysts)$58.501200.0%
Last Year (9 analysts)$64.722390.0%
Current Price$52.22
Analyst Ratings
13
Buy: 1Hold: 13Sell: 1Consensus: Hold
Corporate
Insider Trading (last 12mo)
Open-market only (Form 4 P-Purchase + S-Sale). Excludes grants, option exercises, tax withholding, gifts.
Officers & directors
Buys ($, 12mo)
$119K
1 txn · 1 insider · 2,500 sh
Sells ($, 12mo)
$2.15M
8 txns · 7 insiders · 39,776 sh
Recent transactions
| Date | Side | Insider | Title | Shares | Price | Dollars | Owned $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-13 | BUY | DUNN TIMOTHY S | director | 2,500 | $47.71 | $119K | $258K |
| 2026-03-05 | SELL | JAKOVICH KIM L | officer: Senior Vice President | 949 | $51.45 | $49K | $656K |
| 2026-03-05 | SELL | ROWE MARGARET M | officer: Senior Vice President | 861 | $51.69 | $45K | $297K |
| 2026-02-11 | SELL | BARTH KEVIN G | officer: Executive Vice President | 7,457 | $55.09 | $411K | $2.46M |
| 2026-02-05 | SELL | Kemper John W | director, officer: President and CEO | 23,397 | $53.99 | $1.26M | $11.15M |
| 2026-02-04 | SELL | Brooks Derrick | officer: Senior Vice President | 1,044 | $54.40 | $57K | $793K |
| 2026-02-04 | SELL | Roller David L. | officer: Senior Vice President | 1,134 | $54.48 | $62K | $1.66M |
| 2026-02-03 | SELL | Roller David L. | officer: Senior Vice President | 2,092 | $53.32 | $112K | $1.54M |
| 2026-01-30 | SELL | KEMPER DAVID W | director, officer: Executive Chairman | 2,842 | $52.59 | $149K | $66.51M |
Order Flow (FINRA, ~3w lag)
10.2%retail-0.4pp
23.6%dark+3.5pp
week of 2026-04-27
Off-exchange volume from FINRA. Retail = non-ATS (wholesaler PFOF + broker internalization). Dark = ATS (dark-pool crossing networks, institutional). Lit-exchange = remainder.
Filing Risk Analysis
Filing Risk Scores
Commerce Bancshares, Inc.: Mature regional banking profile with standard compliance indicators.
Overall Risk
2/10
Fraud
1/10
Dilution
2/10
Insolvency
2/10
Earnings Overstated
3/10
Hidden Liabilities
3/10
Legal
2/10
Audit Warnings
1/10
Hidden Upside
4/10
Contextually Acceptable
10/10