Stocks/CBL

CBL

CBL & Associates Properties, Inc.
Real Estate·REIT - Retail
$48.09
$1.5B market cap
Claude Rating
3/10SELL
Revenue
$582.6M
Free Cash Flow
$182.8M
Rev Growth
+3.0%
FCF Margin
31.4%
P/FCF
8.1x
EV/FCF
18.0x
Fwd EV/EBITDA
8.1x
Fair Value
$25.00
Upside
-48.0%

Headquartered in Chattanooga, TN, CBL Properties owns and manages a national portfolio of market-dominant properties located in dynamic and growing communities. CBL's portfolio is comprised of 106 properties totaling 65.7 million square feet across 25 states, including 64 high quality enclosed, outlet and open-air retail centers and 8 properties managed for third parties. CBL seeks to continuously strengthen its company and portfolio through active management, aggressive leasing and profitable r

2-Year Price History

$47.23+150.6%
$20$25$30$35$40$45volMay 24Sep 24Jan 25May 25Sep 25Jan 26May 26

Quarterly Financials & Projections

Quarterly Waterfall ($ M)
PeriodRevEBITDAOpInNIOCFFCFCapExCashDebtSharesROICIntCovEV/EBITDA
Est2027-Q4162.0113.4--13.0--74.5-1.6762.6----------
Est2027-Q3149.0101.3--7.5--67.1-1.5688.0----------
Est2027-Q2150.091.5--1.5--63.0-1.5621.0----------
Est2027-Q1148.097.7--4.4--29.6-1.5558.0----------
Est2026-Q4160.0115.2--16.0--76.8-0.8528.4----------
Est2026-Q3146.0102.2--11.7--70.1-0.7451.6----------
Est2026-Q2148.091.8--3.0--66.6-0.7381.5----------
Est2026-Q1145.098.6--7.3--31.9-0.7314.9----------
Act2026-Q1146.0123.234.746.552.952.9-0.0283.02,07930.76.3%3.1x5.8x
Act2025-Q4156.4136.250.749.080.280.2-0.0153.02,17131.18.9%3.2x6.2x
Act2025-Q3139.3163.171.674.369.6-18.6-0.0313.02,18131.312.8%3.6x5.9x
Act2025-Q2140.982.437.02.868.368.3-0.0288.02,14030.76.8%1.9x7.0x
Act2025-Q1141.894.520.58.831.731.7-0.0276.12,15130.73.8%2.1x7.4x
Act2024-Q4131.7110.939.838.046.246.2-0.0283.92,21331.07.1%3.0x7.6x
Act2024-Q3125.191.631.916.261.161.1-0.0307.01,77530.87.1%2.4x6.2x
Act2024-Q2129.778.633.14.764.256.8-0.0295.81,85331.27.0%2.0x6.2x
Act2024-Q1129.176.127.60.130.730.6-0.0295.31,86031.65.9%1.9x6.5x
Act2023-Q4139.7102.437.711.849.435.7-0.0296.31,96931.37.6%2.4x6.0x
Act2023-Q3129.4107.20.013.349.942.4-0.0292.81,98731.30.0%2.5x6.2x
Act2023-Q2129.976.918.0-20.851.143.4-0.0279.82,03631.33.5%1.7x6.9x
Act2023-Q1136.4103.812.72.333.231.9-0.7282.02,04831.42.5%2.4x6.7x
Act2022-Q4149.6101.022.72.954.448.0-2.8337.12,11131.04.2%3.0x7.1x
Act2022-Q3136.389.212.1-14.365.755.2-0.0335.72,13831.01.7%2.4x--
Act2022-Q2137.079.67.5-41.445.745.2-0.5327.12,16731.01.3%1.4x--
Act2022-Q1140.188.713.5-40.742.440.9-0.0335.72,17628.02.2%1.0x--

AI Analysis

LLM Evaluations

Claude3/10SELLFV: $25.00

CBL is a deeply distressed B/C-tier mall REIT trading at an optically cheap 4.7x P/FCF with a 4.6% dividend yield, but this cheapness is a value trap. The company faces a $1.28B debt maturity wall in 2026-2027 with only ~$335M in liquid assets, no revolving credit facility, and an S&P negative outlook. Net income is grossly inflated by one-time gains ($108M of $135M in 2025 was non-recurring). While management has successfully extended the term loan and executed portfolio trades, the fundamental challenge remains: refinancing >$1B of debt in a higher-rate environment for a structurally challenged B-mall portfolio. Properties are already entering receivership (Jefferson Mall). The stock rewards you with a modest dividend while exposing you to significant equity wipe-out risk if refinancing falters. The risk/reward is asymmetric to the downside.

Catalyst Successful refinancing of the ~$665M secured term loan and property-level debt in 2026-2027 would be a major positive catalyst, potentially driving a re-rating from distressed to performing REIT multiples. Additional asset sales at favorable cap rates could also de-lever the balance sheet.
Risk Failure to refinance the $1.28B in 2026-2027 debt maturities, leading to a liquidity crisis, forced asset sales at distressed prices, or a second restructuring/bankruptcy that wipes out equity holders.
Trend
IMPROVING
Mgmt
5/10
Quarter
7/10
Exp. Move
+3.0%

Valuation & Metrics

Market Stats

Price$48.09
Market Cap$1.5B
Enterprise Value$3.3B
P/S Ratio2.5x
P/FCF8.1x
EV/FCF18.0x
FCF Margin (TTM)31.4%
FCF Yield12.3%
Dividend Yield (TTM)--
Annual Dilution-0.1%
CurrencyUSD

TTM Financial Snapshot

Revenue$582.6M
Net Income$172.5M
Free Cash Flow$182.8M

Revenue Growth (YoY)+3.0%
EBITDA Margin86.7%
Net Margin29.6%
FCF Margin31.4%
CapEx % of Revenue0.0%
SBC % of Revenue2.6%
ROIC8.7%
WC Change % Rev-0.1%
Interest Coverage2.9x

DCF Fair Value Estimate

$5.21
-89.2% upside
Fair Enterprise Value$1.6B
− Net Debt$1.8B
= Fair Equity$160M
Revenue Growth1.7% → 1.0%
FCF Margin31.4% → 30.0%
Discount Rate16.0%
Terminal EV/FCF7.0x

Forward Outlook & Risk

Short Interest

Short % of Float3.6%
Short Shares0.9M
Days to Cover5.0
Change (vs Prior)-4.1%
Short % Float History
3.60%-1.20pp
3.5%4.0%4.5%5.0%04-3007-1509-1511-1401-1504-30

Options

Call IV (ATM)26%
Put IV (ATM)34%
ATM Spread6.2%
Call $OI (near money)$10K
Put $OI (near money)$4K
ATM ExpiryJuly 17, 2026 (56D)
ATM Strike$46.8
Major Expirations1
Near-money chain · July 17, 2026
StrikeCall Bid/AskCall OIPut Bid/AskPut OI
$42.83$3.70/$6.100--/$2.551
$43.83$2.45/$5.500--/$2.800
$44.83$1.85/$4.800--/$3.200
$45.83$1.30/$4.301$0.30/$2.5021
$46.83$0.80/$3.701$0.70/$3.600
$47.83$0.25/$3.603$1.15/$3.700
$48.83--/$3.2029$1.15/$4.100
$49.83--/$2.200$2.25/$4.800
Snapshot: 2026-05-22

Forward Projections & Estimates

NTM Revenue Growth+2.8%
Forward FCF Margin41.0%
Forward EBITDA Margin68.1%
Forward P/FCF6.1x
Forward EV/FCF13.4x
Forward Int. Coverage2.1x
Model Risk Score8/10
Bankruptcy Odds22%
Est. Borrow Rate12.0%
Terminal EV/FCF7.0x
LT Growth1.0%
LT FCF Margin30.0%

Employees

Headcount390
Revenue / Employee$1,493,777
Gross Profit / Employee$-71,397
2022: 395 → 2023: 396 → 2024: 390 → 2025: 408 (1% CAGR)

Institutional Ownership

Headline & net flow

BALANCED

In Q1 2026 so far (quarter still filing), institutions are roughly balanced — bought 5.2% of float, sold 4.5%. 1 filer moved >1% of shares (0 buying, 1 selling).

Net flow · Q1 2026still filing
+0.7% of float (net)
Bought 5.2% · Sold 4.5%
192 filers reported (last quarter: 193)

Ownership composition

Active
48.7%(+15.4% YoY)
176 filers
hedge / family / endowment
Retail funds
Fidelity, Schwab, 401(k)
Passive
8.6%(-0.4% YoY)
5 filers
Vanguard, iShares, SPDR
Market makers
0.4%(+0.2% YoY)
6 filers
Citadel, Susquehanna
Insiders
10.8%
Form 4 — latest per insider
0%25%50%75%100%2022-062023-032023-122024-092025-062026-03
ActiveRetail fundsPassiveMarket makersRetail direct

Top holders

Fund$ valueCost basisΔ QoQΔ YoYα lifeFund AUM
CANYON CAPITAL ADVISORS LLC$325M$23.16+$0+$0-1.8%$772M
OAKTREE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LP$82.8M$23.24−$13.9M−$32.7M+1.1%$4.31B
BlackRock, Inc.Passive$68.7M$23.80+$2.5M−$9.0M-0.2%$5.69T
STATE STREET CORPPassive$24.6M$22.22+$5.9M+$923K-0.2%$2.89T
Taconic Capital Advisors LP$23.4M$38.27+$23.3M+$23.4M+2.6%$140M
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLCPassive$19.0M$19.45+$479K+$1.4M+2.3%$1.61T
ARROWSTREET CAPITAL, LIMITED PARTNERSHIP$15.9M$24.93+$3.8M−$327K+0.1%$184.72B
MIRAE ASSET GLOBAL ETFS HOLDINGS Ltd.$15.6M$20.93−$1.6M−$711K+1.7%$73.71B
FIRST MANHATTAN CO$14.1M$24.86−$57K+$10.6M-0.2%$36.06B
CHARLES SCHWAB INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC$13.2M$24.26+$7.6M+$8.0M+1.0%$645.81B
AQR CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC$12.5M$26.23+$1.3M+$8.6M-0.2%$218.19B
RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC$12.3M$21.38+$130K+$957K+1.2%$63.91B
Allianz Asset Management GmbH$10.0M$28.47+$1.0M+$8.3M+4.6%$86.14B
Beverly Hills Private Wealth, LLC$8.7M$24.73+$538K+$3.8M-0.8%$582M
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LPPassive$7.9M$24.96+$957K+$2.7M-0.4%$480.92B
Caption Management, LLC$7.2M$21.59−$2.3M−$9.9M-1.1%$2.10B
Bank of New York Mellon Corp$7.2M$27.38+$422K+$3.3M+0.5%$543.21B
NORTHERN TRUST CORPPassive$7.0M$19.44+$884K−$297K-0.2%$755.34B
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC$6.3M$22.97−$3.5M+$2.8M-0.2%$760.93B
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO$6.1M$25.03−$314K+$958K-0.2%$1.47T
Cost basis is a volume-weighted estimate from accumulation periods within our 13F history; holders who built their position before our window started will show a stale basis. % above the cost basis is the unrealized gain at the current price.

Trading behavior

Smart-money alpha (lifetime, %/qtr)NEUTRAL
Holders
+0.19%
avg per quarter
Holders (ex-self)
-0.49%
excl. this stock
Buyers (this Q)
+0.64%
105 buyers · $0.08B in
Sellers (this Q)
+0.18%
49 sellers · $0.04B out
alpha coverage: 100% of $ has a lifetime-alpha record
Holder behavior on this stocksource: stock
On big dips (−10%+)
-16.9%
how holders react when this stock falls
On quiet Qs
-6.0%
−10% to +10% baseline
On rallies (+10%+)
-6.1%
how they react when this stock rises
Holders' portfolio flow this Q
+6.5%
inflows — adds are organic
Sellers' portfolio flow this Q
-6.6%
Sellers shed AUM broadly — partly forced.
▸ Compare to holder-profile behavior (across all their stocks)
Holder dip (any stock)
-1.6%
Holder mid (any stock)
-3.6%
Holder rally (any stock)
-12.1%

Top Holders Over Time

5-year share-count history (top 10 holders by peak, incl. exited) + price

04.9M9.8M14.7M19.6M$17$22$27$33$382021-122022-092023-062024-032024-122025-092026-03
hover the chart for per-quarter detailprice (right axis)
CANYON CAPITAL ADVISORS LLC8.5MOAKTREE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LP2.2MStrategic Value Partners, LLCLITTLEJOHN & CO LLCAntara Capital LPTaconic Capital Advisors LP608KMIRAE ASSET GLOBAL ETFS HOLDINGS Ltd.406KARROWSTREET CAPITAL, LIMITED PARTNERSHIP414KFIRST MANHATTAN CO366KCHARLES SCHWAB INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC342K

Corporate

Executive Compensation (2022-2024)

Direct Pay$80.0M
Incentive & Other$15.1M
Total Compensation$95.1M
% of Revenue5.8%

Insider Trading (last 12mo)

Open-market only (Form 4 P-Purchase + S-Sale). Excludes grants, option exercises, tax withholding, gifts.
Officers & directors
Buys ($, 12mo)
$127K
1 txn · 1 insider · 4,000 sh
Sells ($, 12mo)
$953K
5 txns · 4 insiders · 27,141 sh
Recent transactions
DateSideInsiderTitleSharesPriceDollarsOwned $
2026-05-14SELLCobb Andrew Franklinofficer: Exec VP-Accounting8,150$45.81$373K$2.73M
2025-12-02SELLCurry Jeffery V.officer: Chief Legal Officer & Sec.5,000$33.33$167K$3.25M
2025-11-17BUYTORRES MICHAEL Adirector4,000$31.84$127K$127K
2025-10-10SELLCobb Andrew Franklinofficer: Exec VP-Accounting7,368$28.39$209K$1.12M
2025-09-30SELLFields David Michaeldirector1,623$30.22$49K$567K
2025-08-27SELLJaenicke Benjamin Wofficer: EVP - Chief Financial Officer5,000$31.00$155K$1.69M

Order Flow (FINRA, ~3w lag)

19.1%retail-0.8pp
22.5%dark-1.0pp
week of 2026-04-13
10%15%20%25%30%35%24-1125-0225-0525-0825-1126-0226-04retail (non-ATS)dark (ATS)
Off-exchange volume from FINRA. Retail = non-ATS (wholesaler PFOF + broker internalization). Dark = ATS (dark-pool crossing networks, institutional). Lit-exchange = remainder.

Revenue Breakdown

Revenue Segments

By Product (2026-Q1)
Operating Expense Reimbursements$2.1M+9%
Management Developmentand Leasing Fees$1.6M+22%
Marketing$0.6M+61%
Product and Service, Other$0.3M-62%
By Geography (2026-Q1)
All Other$8.4M+4%

Filing Risk Analysis

Filing Risk Scores

CBL & ASSOCIATES PROPERTIES, INC.: Procedural Metadata Lacks Actionable Forensic Indicators

Overall Risk
2/10
Fraud
1/10
Dilution
1/10
Insolvency
1/10
Earnings Overstated
1/10
Hidden Liabilities
1/10
Legal
1/10
Audit Warnings
1/10
Hidden Upside
1/10
Contextually Acceptable
10/10

Counter-Thesis

Counter-Thesis & Recent News

📰 Recent News

CBL reported 'outstanding' Q4 2025 results in Feb 2026, with FFO of $2.25 per share vs $1.92 Y/Y. The company executed a strategic portfolio pivot, acquiring four dominant malls for $178.9M (funded by $240.7M in 2025 dispositions) and maintaining a $0.45/share quarterly dividend. Management also successfully exercised a one-year extension on its secured term loan to Nov 2026 and expects to meet requirements for a second extension to 2027 via natural amortization (S&P Global, Seeking Alpha).

🐻 Bear Case

The bear case rests on CBL's high leverage (net debt ~67-70% of enterprise value) and the systemic decline of the B/C-tier mall model. Short sellers argue that a potential U.S. recession or consumer spending slowdown will trigger tenant bankruptcies (like Forever 21 and JoAnn), leading to a death spiral of declining occupancy and unsustainable interest coverage—currently tight at below 1.3x (Simply Wall St).

🚩 Red Flags

S&P Global Ratings maintained a 'Negative' outlook as of Oct 2025, citing material refinancing risk for the ~$665M term loan due in 2026/2027. Additionally, specific properties like Jefferson Mall face potential foreclosure. While the company has ~$335M in cash/treasuries, it lacks a revolving credit facility, making it highly dependent on asset sales and internal cash flow to meet debt obligations (S&P Global).

⚔️ Competitive Threats

CBL faces dual-front competition: the continued growth of e-commerce, which erodes traditional brick-and-mortar sales, and competition from higher-tier 'A' mall operators and open-air lifestyle centers that attract premium national brands. Lower-tier malls are particularly vulnerable to 'tenant flight' where retailers consolidate into fewer, higher-traffic locations (GuruFocus).

💬 Customer Sentiment

Tenant and shopper sentiment appear resilient in CBL’s core 'dominant' properties; same-center tenant sales rose 3.7% in Q4 2025 to $437/sq ft. Leasing demand is active, with over 4.0M sq ft of leases signed in 2025. However, merchants are price-sensitive, evidenced by a 5.3% decline in mall renewal spreads during Q4, suggesting CBL lacks the pricing power of its premium peers (BusinessWire, Seeking Alpha).