Stocks/BCYC

BCYC

Bicycle Therapeutics plc
Healthcare·Biotechnology
$4.69
$325M market cap
Revenue
$48.8M
Free Cash Flow
$-83.9M
Rev Growth
+0.0%
FCF Margin
-171.7%
P/FCF
--
EV/FCF
--
Fwd EV/EBITDA
--
Fair Value
--
Upside
--

Bicycle Therapeutics plc, a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, develops a class of medicines for diseases that are underserved by existing therapeutics. Its lead product candidate is BT1718, a bicycle toxin conjugate (BTC), which is in Phase I/IIa clinical trials targeting tumors that express Membrane Type 1 matrix metalloprotease. The company's oncology product candidates also comprise BT5528, a BTC that is in a Phase I/II clinical trial targeting EphA2; and BT8009, which is in Phase I/I

2-Year Price History

$4.55-80.3%
$5.0$10$15$20$25volJun 24Oct 24Jan 25May 25Sep 25Jan 26May 26

Quarterly Financials & Projections

Quarterly Waterfall ($ M)
PeriodRevEBITDAOpInNIOCFFCFCapExCashDebtSharesROICIntCovEV/EBITDA
Act2026-Q10.9-59.5-65.6-60.8-65.9-66.6-0.7559.513.969.7-171.1%-1239.1x--
Act2025-Q448.0-17.5-24.7-20.2-19.0-17.2-1.8628.117.569.4-45.7%-306.9x--

Valuation & Metrics

Market Stats

Price$4.69
Market Cap$325M
Enterprise Value$-220M
P/S Ratio6.7x
P/FCF--
EV/FCF--
FCF Margin (TTM)-171.7%
FCF Yield-25.8%
Dividend Yield (TTM)--
Annual Dilution0.0%
CurrencyUSD

TTM Financial Snapshot

Revenue$48.8M
Net Income$-81.0M
Free Cash Flow$-83.9M

Revenue Growth (YoY)+0.0%
EBITDA Margin-157.6%
Net Margin-165.8%
FCF Margin-171.7%
CapEx % of Revenue5.1%
SBC % of Revenue-42.8%
ROIC-108.4%
WC Change % Rev-18.5%
Interest Coverage-733.1x

Forward Outlook & Risk

Short Interest

Short % of Float--
Short Shares2.9M
Days to Cover7.9
Change (vs Prior)+11.1%
Need at least 2 settlement dates for chart

Employees

Headcount305
Revenue / Employee$160,138
Gross Profit / Employee$160,138

Institutional Ownership

Headline & net flow

NEUTRAL
Net flow · still filing
No float data — flow unavailable.

Ownership composition

Active
55.5%(-58.5% YoY)
90 filers
hedge / family / endowment
Retail funds
Fidelity, Schwab, 401(k)
Passive
0.5%(-0.7% YoY)
3 filers
Vanguard, iShares, SPDR
Market makers
0.4%(+0.4% YoY)
4 filers
Citadel, Susquehanna
Insiders
Form 4 — latest per insider
0%25%50%75%100%2022-062023-032023-122024-092025-062026-03
ActiveRetail fundsPassiveMarket makersRetail direct

Top holders

Fund$ valueCost basisΔ QoQΔ YoYα lifeFund AUM
BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LP$50.5M$20.78+$0+$0-0.3%$16.13B
FCPM III SERVICES B.V.$16.1M$18.33+$0+$75K-1.1%$722M
ARMISTICE CAPITAL, LLC$15.8M$15.56+$752K+$3.4M-11.2%$3.03B
Long Focus Capital Management, LLC$15.4M$7.32+$7.8M+$9.4M-1.5%$2.22B
ACADIAN ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC$9.1M$7.03+$1.4M+$8.5M-0.5%$70.48B
Siren, L.L.C.$7.2M$13.31−$2.1M−$1.2M+6.4%$3.61B
GSK plc$7.1M$7.08+$0+$7.1M-21.4%$599M
PRINCIPAL FINANCIAL GROUP INC$5.5M$13.22+$122K+$2.5M-0.5%$186.29B
PRICE T ROWE ASSOCIATES INC /MD/$4.8M$21.82−$666K−$2.4M-0.2%$864.93B
RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC$4.5M$10.64+$1.9M+$3.1M+1.2%$63.91B
MORGAN STANLEY$2.9M$18.90+$710K−$1.8M-0.3%$1.65T
SCHRODER INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT GROUP$2.7M$6.96+$144K+$2.7M-0.2%$121.82B
DIADEMA PARTNERS LP$2.2M$4.64+$2.2M+$2.2M+2.7%$224M
Birchview Capital, LP$2.2M$7.29+$4K+$2.2M-1.3%$176M
SILVERCREST ASSET MANAGEMENT GROUP LLC$2.0M$12.27−$224K+$756K-0.3%$13.84B
MARSHALL WACE, LLP$1.8M$14.12+$1.6M+$1.8M+0.6%$92.71B
CITADEL ADVISORS LLC$1.7M$15.05+$490K+$1.1M-0.4%$138.22B
Qube Research & Technologies Ltd$1.4M$9.33+$853K+$1.4M+0.3%$70.36B
MILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC$1.3M$11.12−$198K−$786K-0.5%$127.40B
BlackRock, Inc.Passive$1.3M$20.47−$250K−$204K-0.2%$5.69T
Cost basis is a volume-weighted estimate from accumulation periods within our 13F history; holders who built their position before our window started will show a stale basis. % above the cost basis is the unrealized gain at the current price.

Trading behavior

Smart-money alpha (lifetime, %/qtr)BEARISH
Holders
-2.20%
avg per quarter
Holders (ex-self)
-1.97%
excl. this stock
Buyers (this Q)
+0.18%
21 buyers · $0.01B in
Sellers (this Q)
+2.50%
19 sellers · $0.02B out
alpha coverage: 100% of $ has a lifetime-alpha record
Holder behavior on this stocksource: stock
On big dips (−10%+)
-8.4%
how holders react when this stock falls
On quiet Qs
+24.7%
−10% to +10% baseline
On rallies (+10%+)
-8.3%
how they react when this stock rises
Holders' portfolio flow this Q
+1.8%
inflows — adds are organic
Sellers' portfolio flow this Q
-1.2%
Sellers shed AUM broadly — partly forced.
▸ Compare to holder-profile behavior (across all their stocks)
Holder dip (any stock)
+0.7%
Holder mid (any stock)
-4.3%
Holder rally (any stock)
-6.2%

Top Holders Over Time

5-year share-count history (top 10 holders by peak, incl. exited) + price

04.5M9.0M13.5M18.0M$4.64$11$17$23$302021-062022-062023-062024-062025-062026-03
hover the chart for per-quarter detailprice (right axis)
BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LP10.9MRidgeback Capital Investments L.P.TYBOURNE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT (HK) LTDJANUS HENDERSON GROUP PLCPoint72 Asset Management, L.P.130KFMR LLCDeep Track Capital, LPParadigm Biocapital Advisors LPEVENTIDE ASSET MANAGEMENT, LLCLogos Global Management LP

Analyst Coverage

Analyst Coverage
Price Targets
Last Quarter (4 analysts)$11.2513990.0%
Last Year (8 analysts)$13.1318000.0%
Current Price$4.69
Analyst Ratings
17
4
Buy: 17Hold: 4Consensus: Buy

Corporate

Insider Trading (last 12mo)

Open-market only (Form 4 P-Purchase + S-Sale). Excludes grants, option exercises, tax withholding, gifts.
Officers & directors
Buys ($, 12mo)
$0
0 txns · 0 insiders · 0 sh
Sells ($, 12mo)
$568K
45 txns · 8 insiders · 85,353 sh
Recent transactions
DateSideInsiderTitleSharesPriceDollarsOwned $
2026-04-06SELLHannay Michael Charles Fergusonofficer: CHIEF PROD & SUPPLY CHAIN OFF251$5.05$1K$485K
2026-04-06SELLPerry Jennifer Scottofficer: Chief Operating Officer370$5.04$2K$466K
2026-04-06SELLSkynner Michaelofficer: CHIEF SCIENTIFIC OFFICER525$5.05$3K$806K
2026-04-06SELLThompson Travis Alvinofficer: Chief Financial Officer102$5.05$515$330K
2026-04-06SELLLee Kevindirector, officer: CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER1,716$5.05$9K$3.09M
2026-04-02SELLHannay Michael Charles Fergusonofficer: CHIEF PROD & SUPPLY CHAIN OFF1,521$4.91$7K$473K
2026-04-02SELLLee Kevindirector, officer: CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER5,967$4.91$29K$3.01M
2026-04-02SELLPerry Jennifer Scottofficer: Chief Operating Officer1,038$4.91$5K$456K
2026-04-02SELLSkynner Michaelofficer: CHIEF SCIENTIFIC OFFICER1,879$4.91$9K$786K
2026-04-02SELLThompson Travis Alvinofficer: Chief Financial Officer799$4.91$4K$321K
2026-01-05SELLSkynner Michaelofficer: CHIEF TECHNOLOGY OFFICER3,266$6.46$21K$1.05M
2026-01-05SELLYoung Alethiaofficer: Chief Financial Officer4,334$6.49$28K$565K
2026-01-05SELLThompson Travis Alvinofficer: CHIEF ACCOUNTING OFFICER1,115$6.45$7K$427K
2026-01-05SELLMilnes Alistairofficer: CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER3,416$6.46$22K$883K
2026-01-05SELLLee Kevindirector, officer: CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER10,989$6.46$71K$4.00M
2026-01-05SELLHannay Michael Charles Fergusonofficer: CHIEF PROD & SUPPLY CHAIN OFF2,367$6.45$15K$632K
2026-01-02SELLHannay Michael Charles Fergusonofficer: CHIEF PROD & SUPPLY CHAIN OFF2,827$6.80$19K$682K
2026-01-02SELLLee Kevindirector, officer: CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER10,325$6.80$70K$4.28M
2026-01-02SELLMilnes Alistairofficer: CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER3,244$6.80$22K$953K
2026-01-02SELLSkynner Michaelofficer: CHIEF TECHNOLOGY OFFICER3,045$6.80$21K$1.12M

Order Flow (FINRA, ~3w lag)

20.8%retail-14.2pp
12.2%dark-1.2pp
week of 2026-04-13
10%20%30%40%50%60%24-1125-0225-0525-0825-1126-0226-04retail (non-ATS)dark (ATS)
Off-exchange volume from FINRA. Retail = non-ATS (wholesaler PFOF + broker internalization). Dark = ATS (dark-pool crossing networks, institutional). Lit-exchange = remainder.

Filing Risk Analysis

Filing Risk Scores

Bicycle Therapeutics PLC: A Bio-Tech Mirage of Terminated Partnerships and Dilutive Survival

Overall Risk
7/10
Fraud
3/10
Dilution
9/10
Insolvency
4/10
Earnings Overstated
6/10
Hidden Liabilities
4/10
Legal
2/10
Audit Warnings
5/10
Hidden Upside
3/10
Contextually Acceptable
6/10