Stocks/BATL

BATL

Battalion Oil Corporation
Energy·Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
$1.45
$24M market cap
Claude Rating
3/10SELL
Revenue
$157.5M
Free Cash Flow
$39.7M
Rev Growth
-17.7%
FCF Margin
25.2%
P/FCF
0.6x
EV/FCF
0.0x
Fwd EV/EBITDA
0.0x
Fair Value
$4.50
Upside
+210.3%

Battalion Oil Corporation, an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, production, exploration, and development of onshore oil and natural gas assets in the United States. As of December 31, 2021, the company held interests in 40,400 net acres in the Delaware Basin located in the counties of Pecos, Reeves, Ward, and Winkler, Texas. It also had estimated proved reserves of approximately 95.9 million barrels of oil equivalent comprising 58.7 million barrels of crude oil, 16.3 millio

2-Year Price History

$1.89-66.6%
$5.0$10$15$20volJun 24Oct 24Jan 25May 25Sep 25Jan 26May 26

Quarterly Financials & Projections

Quarterly Waterfall ($ M)
PeriodRevEBITDAOpInNIOCFFCFCapExCashDebtSharesROICIntCovEV/EBITDA
Est2027-Q338.019.4---3.4--2.3-13.355.4----------
Est2027-Q237.518.8---3.8--1.9-13.553.1----------
Est2027-Q136.017.3---5.0--0.0-14.451.2----------
Est2026-Q437.018.5---4.4--1.1-14.151.2----------
Est2026-Q338.520.4---3.1--3.1-13.550.1----------
Est2026-Q237.019.2---3.7--1.9-14.147.1----------
Est2026-Q136.518.3---4.4--0.7-14.645.2----------
Act2026-Q139.110.1-2.3-56.52.1-1.5-3.646.423.217.4-4.5%1.8x0.6x
Est2025-Q438.018.2---5.7---1.9-17.144.5----------
Act2025-Q432.321.0-9.61.8-11.8-16.8-5.028.0189.816.5-9.5%3.1x2.0x
Act2025-Q343.419.50.8-0.728.081.1-53.150.7421.716.50.8%2.9x6.7x
Act2025-Q242.825.6-0.24.810.2-23.1-33.344.6222.716.5-0.1%3.9x2.5x
Act2025-Q147.525.53.46.012.7-7.1-19.873.6227.016.53.2%3.8x2.5x
Act2024-Q449.7-12.2-17.9-22.26.7-6.2-12.919.7165.916.5-19.8%--7.1x
Act2024-Q345.339.81.121.6-5.1-12.0-6.929.8150.316.52.1%6.3x1.8x
Act2024-Q249.119.85.1-0.129.79.4-20.354.4162.116.510.1%3.1x7.1x
Act2024-Q149.9-11.40.0-31.23.9-20.7-24.649.4314.516.50.0%-1.6x14.7x
Act2023-Q447.254.1-0.732.76.5-3.1-9.658.0298.616.5-0.7%6.0x3.9x
Act2023-Q354.1-33.46.8-53.82.4-1.5-3.942.6199.516.58.3%-4.8x5.1x
Act2023-Q254.319.50.3-4.89.35.3-4.018.5214.216.50.4%2.0x1.5x
Act2023-Q165.146.711.122.8-0.7-29.6-28.923.3222.716.512.6%6.0x1.6x
Act2022-Q476.818.624.6-7.725.0-13.7-38.732.7218.116.329.9%1.8x4.1x
Act2022-Q399.2125.243.9105.925.5-10.4-35.933.5204.916.554.1%22.0x--
Act2022-Q2101.530.549.813.116.3-20.1-36.443.6210.116.589.0%6.3x--
Act2022-Q181.6-79.833.8-92.712.1-3.6-15.743.5190.716.370.9%-29.7x--
Historical Valuation

Multiples vs the company's own history — cheap or rich relative to itself? Historical fiscal years, then TTM, then forward projections (E). Forward rows hold today's price against projected earnings, so the multiple compresses if the company grows into it.

YearPriceRev GrEBITDA %EBITDAEV/EBITDAEV/FCFP/EP/S
20229.7126.3%944.1×n/m10.9×0.6×
20239.61-38.5%39.4%873.9×n/mn/m0.4×
20241.72-12.2%18.6%367.1×n/mn/m0.6×
20251.13-14.4%55.2%922.0×5.3×1.6×0.1×
TTM1.45-17.7%48.4%760.0×0.0×0.0×0.0×
2026E1.45-5.4%0.5%10.0×0.0×0.0×0.0×

EBITDA in reporting-currency $M. Historical multiples use year-end market cap (split-adjusted price history); TTM & forward years use today's.

AI Analysis

LLM Evaluations

Claude3/10SELLFV: $4.50

Battalion Oil is a deeply distressed micro-cap E&P company where the common equity is effectively a levered call option on commodity prices. The company has $211.9M in preferred stock accruing 16% PIK dividends (~$34M/year), ~$170M in senior debt at 12%+ rates, going concern language in its filings, and reliance on related-party support letters for survival. Recent asset sales and the new gas treating agreement have temporarily stabilized operations, but the company sold 12.4% of its reserves to survive and conducted a deeply discounted equity raise. The 400%+ price surge appears driven by a short squeeze and Middle East geopolitical premium rather than fundamental improvement. At $20/share ($330M market cap), the market is pricing in a turnaround that requires sustained high oil prices, flawless execution, and eventual resolution of the preferred stock overhang — all of which are low-probability outcomes. The preferred liquidation preference alone exceeds the market cap, meaning common holders are deeply subordinated.

Catalyst Sustained WTI above $75 could generate enough FCF to begin deleveraging; alternatively, a buyout by the controlling preferred holders at a premium to current levels, though their incentive is to squeeze common holders, not reward them.
Risk Covenant breach triggering acceleration of $170M+ in debt, combined with the preferred stock overhang ($211.9M growing at 16%/year) that makes the common equity effectively worthless in any liquidation or restructuring scenario.
Trend
DETERIORATING
Mgmt
3/10
Quarter
3/10
Exp. Move
-8.0%

Valuation & Metrics

Market Stats

Price$1.45
Market Cap$24M
Enterprise Value$1M
P/S Ratio0.1x
P/FCF0.6x
EV/FCF0.0x
FCF Margin (TTM)25.2%
FCF Yield166.3%
Dividend Yield (TTM)--
Annual Dilution5.8%
CurrencyUSD

TTM Financial Snapshot

Revenue$157.5M
Net Income$-50.6M
Free Cash Flow$39.7M

Revenue Growth (YoY)-17.7%
EBITDA Margin48.4%
Net Margin-32.1%
FCF Margin25.2%
CapEx % of Revenue60.3%
SBC % of Revenue0.0%
ROIC-3.4%
WC Change % Rev-0.9%
Interest Coverage5.2x

DCF Fair Value Estimate

$3.04
+109.6% upside
Fair Enterprise Value$30M
− Net Debt$-23M
= Fair Equity$53M
Revenue Growth-1.0% → 1.0%
FCF Margin25.2% → 8.0%
Discount Rate17.0%
Terminal EV/FCF6.0x

Forward Outlook & Risk

Short Interest

Short % of Float20.2%
Short Shares3.3M
Days to Cover1.0
Change (vs Prior)-7.3%
Short % Float History
20.20%+18.20pp
0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%04-3007-1509-1511-1401-1504-30

Forward Projections & Estimates

NTM Revenue Growth-4.8%
Forward FCF Margin2.5%
Forward EBITDA Margin50.8%
Forward P/FCF6.3x
Forward EV/FCF0.2x
Forward Int. Coverage3.9x
Model Risk Score9/10
Bankruptcy Odds30%
Est. Borrow Rate14.0%
Terminal EV/FCF5.0x
LT Growth0.0%
LT FCF Margin8.0%

Employees

Headcount38
Revenue / Employee$4,145,632
Gross Profit / Employee$1,932,316
2022: 63 → 2023: 38 → 2024: 38 → 2025: 40 (-14% CAGR)

Institutional Ownership

Headline & net flow

NET SELLING

In Q1 2026 so far (quarter still filing), institutions are net sellers — bought 15.6% of float, sold 43.2%. 5 filers moved >1% of shares (3 buying, 2 selling).

Net flow · Q1 2026still filing
-27.5% of float (net)
Bought 15.6% · Sold 43.2%
38 filers reported (last quarter: 28)

Ownership composition

Active
83.1%(+35.8% YoY)
27 filers
hedge / family / endowment
Retail funds
Fidelity, Schwab, 401(k)
Passive
8.0%(+6.6% YoY)
8 filers
Vanguard, iShares, SPDR
Market makers
0.2%(+0.2% YoY)
3 filers
Citadel, Susquehanna
Insiders
0.6%
Form 4 — latest per insider
0%25%50%75%100%2022-062023-032023-122024-092025-062026-03
ActiveRetail fundsPassiveMarket makersRetail direct

Top holders

Fund$ valueCost basisΔ QoQΔ YoYα lifeFund AUM
OAKTREE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LP$11.7M$1.21+$0+$0+1.2%$4.52B
LUMINUS MANAGEMENT LLC$7.8M$18.58−$16.2M−$16.2M-3.8%$166M
Alyeska Investment Group, L.P.$7.0M$3.90+$7.0M+$7.0M-0.5%$35.33B
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLCPassive$1.2M$3.90+$1.2M+$1.2M$4.04T
Utah Retirement Systems$740K$3.90+$740K+$740K-0.3%$9.78B
BlackRock, Inc.Passive$728K$4.00+$727K+$689K-0.2%$5.69T
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLCPassive$353K$3.69+$100K+$205K+2.3%$1.61T
MARSHALL WACE, LLP$248K$6.52+$53K+$248K+0.6%$92.71B
Engineers Gate Manager LP$220K$3.90+$220K+$220K-1.8%$7.97B
VANGUARD FIDUCIARY TRUST COPassive$150K$3.90+$150K+$150K$395.83B
Qube Research & Technologies Ltd$142K$5.75+$58K+$142K+0.3%$70.36B
STATE STREET CORPPassive$132K$5.92+$49K+$86K-0.2%$2.89T
CITIGROUP INC$90K$5.62+$90K+$90K-0.3%$156.55B
JANE STREET GROUP, LLCMM$72K$7.18+$18K+$72K-0.1%$92.10B
TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP$72K$1.21+$0+$72K-0.9%$117.03B
NORTHERN TRUST CORPPassive$67K$8.73−$19K+$67K-0.2%$755.34B
Baader Bank Aktiengesellschaft$65K$3.90+$99K+$65K-0.4%$1.01B
BRIDGEWAY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC$63K$9.71+$0+$63K-2.3%$4.93B
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LPPassive$59K$12.22+$0−$28K-0.4%$480.92B
ADVISOR GROUP HOLDINGS, INC.$42K$3.90+$42K+$42K-0.3%$67.63B
Cost basis is a volume-weighted estimate from accumulation periods within our 13F history; holders who built their position before our window started will show a stale basis. % above the cost basis is the unrealized gain at the current price.

Trading behavior

Smart-money alpha (lifetime, %/qtr)BULLISH
Holders
-0.93%
avg per quarter
Holders (ex-self)
-0.71%
excl. this stock
Buyers (this Q)
-0.49%
23 buyers · $0.01B in
Sellers (this Q)
-5.36%
5 sellers · $-0.00B out
alpha coverage: 96% of $ has a lifetime-alpha record
Holder behavior on this stocksource: stock
On big dips (−10%+)
-8.1%
how holders react when this stock falls
On quiet Qs
+13.0%
−10% to +10% baseline
On rallies (+10%+)
-26.7%
how they react when this stock rises
Holders' portfolio flow this Q
+5.1%
inflows — adds are organic
Sellers' portfolio flow this Q
+47.1%
Sellers grew AUM elsewhere — opinionated cut of this stock.
▸ Compare to holder-profile behavior (across all their stocks)
Holder dip (any stock)
-3.1%
Holder mid (any stock)
-6.3%
Holder rally (any stock)
-14.2%

Top Holders Over Time

5-year share-count history (top 10 holders by peak, incl. exited) + price

03.4M6.8M10.2M13.5M$1.13$5.49$9.86$14$192021-062022-062023-062024-062025-062026-03
hover the chart for per-quarter detailprice (right axis)
LUMINUS MANAGEMENT LLC2.0MOAKTREE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LP3.0MLSP Investment Advisors, LLCGOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INCLion Point Capital, LPJefferies Group LLCAlyeska Investment Group, L.P.1.8MLOOMIS SAYLES & CO L PBeryl Capital Management LLCJefferies Financial Group Inc.

Analyst Coverage

Analyst Coverage
Analyst Ratings
1
1
Buy: 1Hold: 1Consensus: Buy
Consensus Estimates
QuarterRevenueEBITDANet IncEPSEPS Range# Analysts
2027 Q461M15M6M$0.33$0.33 – $0.331
2028 Q154M13M6M$0.36$0.36 – $0.361
2028 Q266M16M0M$0.00$0.00 – $0.000
2028 Q353M13M0M$0.00$0.00 – $0.000
2028 Q452M13M0M$0.00$0.00 – $0.000
2029 Q152M13M1M$0.07$0.07 – $0.071
2029 Q248M12M1M$0.07$0.07 – $0.071
2029 Q347M11M1M$0.03$0.03 – $0.031
2029 Q448M12M1M$0.08$0.08 – $0.081
2030 Q148M11M1M$0.05$0.05 – $0.051

Corporate

Executive Compensation (2023-2025)

Direct Pay$9.4M
Incentive & Other$1.9M
Total Compensation$11.3M
% of Revenue2.0%

Insider Trading (last 12mo)

Open-market only (Form 4 P-Purchase + S-Sale). Excludes grants, option exercises, tax withholding, gifts.
Officers & directors
Buys ($, 12mo)
$0
0 txns · 0 insiders · 0 sh
Sells ($, 12mo)
$226K
4 txns · 3 insiders · 34,658 sh
Major holders (≥10% beneficial owners)
Buys ($, 12mo)
$0
0 txns · 0 insiders · 0 sh
Sells ($, 12mo)
$22.42M
3 txns · 2 insiders · 4,273,581 sh
Recent transactions
DateSideInsiderTitleSharesPriceDollarsOwned $
2026-03-31SELLLUMINUS MANAGEMENT LLCdirector, 10 percent owner: 1,209,377$3.98$4.82M$7.99M
2026-03-30SELLLUMINUS MANAGEMENT LLCdirector, 10 percent owner: 694,435$5.48$3.81M$0
2026-03-27SELLMayer Walter Rofficer: SVP, General Counsel4,777$6.00$29K$1K
2026-03-25SELLGen IV Investment Opportunities, LLCdirector, 10 percent owner: 2,369,769$5.82$13.79M$0
2026-03-25SELLMartin Charles Eofficer: VP, Controller7,623$5.25$40K$0
2026-03-25SELLRohling Daniel Pofficer: Chief Operating Officer14,421$5.99$86K$0
2026-03-24SELLRohling Daniel Pofficer: Chief Operating Officer7,837$9.04$71K$130K

Order Flow (FINRA, ~3w lag)

56.6%retail+8.1pp
6.7%dark-1.1pp
week of 2026-04-13
0%20%40%60%80%24-1125-0225-0525-0825-1126-0226-04retail (non-ATS)dark (ATS)
Off-exchange volume from FINRA. Retail = non-ATS (wholesaler PFOF + broker internalization). Dark = ATS (dark-pool crossing networks, institutional). Lit-exchange = remainder.

Revenue Breakdown

Revenue Segments

By Product (2026-Q1)
Oil$36.3M-9%
Natural gas liquids$4.3M-12%
Natural gas$-1.5M-153%

Filing Risk Analysis

Filing Risk Scores

Battalion Oil Corp: Strategic Asset Liquidation and $150M ATM Program Signal Extreme Survival Stress

Overall Risk
8/10
Fraud
3/10
Dilution
10/10
Insolvency
7/10
Earnings Overstated
4/10
Hidden Liabilities
6/10
Legal
5/10
Audit Warnings
5/10
Hidden Upside
2/10
Contextually Acceptable
3/10

Counter-Thesis

Counter-Thesis & Recent News

📰 Recent News

In March 2026, Battalion Oil completed a major $60.1 million sale of its West Quito Draw assets to MCM Delaware Resources, using $40 million of the proceeds to significantly pay down senior debt (Investing.com). In January 2026, the company resolved a long-standing production bottleneck by securing a new gas treating agreement with a large-cap midstream provider, which boosted gas processing capacity from 17.4 to over 30 million cubic feet per day and increased oil production by ~1,200 net barrels per day (Investing.com). Additionally, the company raised $15 million in a private placement at $5.50/share in March 2026 to bolster liquidity (Fidelity).

🐻 Bear Case

The bear case centers on a history of 'death spiral' dynamics, including a failed merger with Fury Resources in late 2024 due to financing issues and chronic cash burning, with negative levered free cash flow of $24.84 million as of late 2025 (Investing.com). Bears argue the recent 400%+ price surge is a technical short squeeze driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East rather than a sustainable fundamental shift, especially given that the company sold off 12.4% of its proved reserves to survive (YouTube, Stocktwits).

🚩 Red Flags

Battalion maintains a high debt-to-equity ratio of approximately 108.9% and has experienced extreme price volatility, with weekly volatility increasing to 82% (Simply Wall St). The stock previously faced NYSE listing compliance issues, and the $15 million private placement in March 2026 was conducted at a steep discount ($5.50) to the then-trading price of $11.80, signaling potential desperation for working capital (Investing.com).

⚔️ Competitive Threats

As a small-cap player, BATL is highly sensitive to commodity price fluctuations compared to larger peers like W&T Offshore (WTI) and Amplify Energy (AMPY). Its operational reliance on third-party midstream providers remains a risk, as evidenced by the months-long bottleneck that occurred when its previous treating facility went offline (Nasdaq).

💬 Customer Sentiment

Retail sentiment on platforms like Stocktwits is currently 'extremely bullish' due to the recent short squeeze and the company's transition from 'survival mode' to a stabilized position (Stocktwits). Technical analysts have recently tagged the stock as a 'Strong Buy' candidate based on momentum, though some institutional analysts caution investors to lock in gains following the extreme price discovery event (Intellectia AI, YouTube).