Stocks/AVXL

AVXL

Anavex Life Sciences Corp.
Healthcare·Biotechnology
$3.03
$281M market cap
Claude Rating
3/10SELL
Revenue
$0.0M
Free Cash Flow
$-34.1M
Rev Growth
+0.0%
FCF Margin
0.0%
P/FCF
--
EV/FCF
--
Fwd EV/EBITDA
--
Fair Value
$2.50
Upside
-17.5%

Anavex Life Sciences Corp., a clinical stage biopharmaceutical company, engages in the development of drug candidates for the treatment of central nervous system (CNS) diseases. Its lead drug candidate is ANAVEX 2-73, which is in Phase III clinical trial for the treatment of Alzheimer's disease; Phase III clinical trial to treat pediatric patients with Rett syndrome; Phase II clinical trial for the treatment of Parkinson's disease; and preclinical clinical trials to treat epilepsy, infantile spa

2-Year Price History

$2.70-30.2%
$4.0$6.0$8.0$10$12volJun 24Oct 24Jan 25May 25Sep 25Jan 26May 26

Quarterly Financials & Projections

Quarterly Waterfall ($ M)
PeriodRevEBITDAOpInNIOCFFCFCapExCashDebtSharesROICIntCovEV/EBITDA
Est2028-Q10.00.0--0.0--0.0-0.0131.8----------
Est2027-Q40.00.0--0.0--0.0-0.0131.8----------
Est2027-Q30.00.0--0.0--0.0-0.0131.8----------
Est2027-Q20.00.0--0.0--0.0-0.0131.8----------
Est2027-Q10.00.0--0.0--0.0-0.0131.8----------
Est2026-Q40.00.0--0.0--0.0-0.0131.8----------
Est2026-Q30.00.0--0.0--0.0-0.0131.8----------
Est2026-Q20.00.0--0.0--0.0-0.0131.8----------
Act2026-Q10.0-6.8-6.8-5.7-7.2-7.2-0.0131.80.089.0-76.2%----
Act2025-Q40.0-6.5-10.8-9.8-8.6-8.6-0.0102.60.085.9<-999%----
Act2025-Q30.0-14.3-14.5-13.2-12.5-12.5-0.0101.20.085.4------
Act2025-Q20.0-12.4-12.5-11.2-5.9-5.9-0.0115.80.085.1------
Act2025-Q10.0-13.6-13.6-12.1-12.1-12.1-0.0120.80.084.8<-999%----
Act2024-Q40.0-11.7-14.3-11.6-6.7-6.7-0.0132.20.084.0-385.4%----
Act2024-Q30.0-14.1-14.6-12.2-5.2-5.2-0.0138.80.084.5-237.0%----
Act2024-Q20.0-12.2-12.6-10.6-11.7-11.7-0.0139.40.082.5-165.4%----
Act2024-Q10.0-11.4-11.4-8.6-7.3-7.3-0.0143.80.082.1-145.0%----
Act2023-Q40.0-10.2-12.7-10.2-5.9-5.9-0.0151.00.079.8-131.6%----
Act2023-Q30.0-11.2-13.5-11.3-7.7-7.7-0.0154.80.080.9-123.5%----
Act2023-Q20.0-12.1-14.2-13.1-8.5-8.5-0.0153.50.078.3-132.3%-12.5x--
Act2023-Q10.0-15.4-15.4-13.0-5.8-5.8-0.0143.60.078.0-183.9%----
Act2022-Q40.0-15.3-15.3-14.3-4.0-4.0-0.0149.20.076.9-147.8%----
Act2022-Q30.0-12.3-12.5-12.4-7.1-7.1-0.0153.20.077.4-98.9%----
Act2022-Q20.0-11.5-11.5-10.4-9.6-9.6-0.0153.30.076.3-87.5%----
Act2022-Q10.0-11.7-11.7-10.9-3.5-3.5-0.0151.20.076.0-98.6%----
Historical Valuation

Multiples vs the company's own history — cheap or rich relative to itself? Historical fiscal years, then TTM, then forward projections (E). Forward rows hold today's price against projected earnings, so the multiple compresses if the company grows into it.

YearPriceRev GrEBITDA %EBITDAEV/EBITDAEV/FCFP/EP/S
20229.26-51n/mn/mn/m
20239.31-49n/mn/mn/m
202410.74-49n/mn/mn/m
20253.56-47n/mn/mn/m
TTM3.03-400.0×0.0×0.0×
2027E3.030

EBITDA in reporting-currency $M. Historical multiples use year-end market cap (split-adjusted price history); TTM & forward years use today's.

AI Analysis

LLM Evaluations

Claude3/10SELLFV: $2.50

Anavex is a pre-revenue clinical-stage biotech trading at a $431M market cap ($299M EV) that just received a negative EMA opinion on its lead Alzheimer's drug, blarcamesine. The reexamination process has historically low success rates. In the U.S., no NDA has been filed and the FDA pathway remains unclear despite a Type C meeting. The company burns ~$28-30M annually, relies entirely on ATM equity issuance (5% annual dilution), faces active shareholder litigation, and has 22% short interest. While the oral delivery mechanism is differentiated vs. injectable anti-amyloid antibodies, the clinical data has not been compelling enough to clear the EMA's bar, and the 50% discontinuation rate is a serious concern. The $132M cash position provides runway but not value — it simply delays the binary outcome. At current valuation, the market is pricing in meaningful probability of approval that I believe is too generous given the regulatory setback. The stock is essentially a lottery ticket with unfavorable odds and persistent dilution eroding the option value over time.

Catalyst EMA reexamination reversal in mid-2026 (low probability, ~15-20%), or FDA agreement to accept NDA filing based on existing data, which would re-rate the stock significantly higher. Anavex 3-71 schizophrenia pivotal readout could also provide upside optionality.
Risk EMA reexamination confirms negative opinion AND FDA requires additional trials, effectively pushing any approval out 3-5+ years and forcing significant additional dilution or partnership at unfavorable terms.
Trend
DETERIORATING
Mgmt
4/10
Quarter
4/10
Exp. Move
-3.0%

Latest Earnings Call

Transcript Summary

Anavex Life Sciences (AVXL) reported fiscal Q1 2026 results, highlighting regulatory progress for oral blarcamesine. Following a negative CHMP opinion in Europe, Anavex has initiated a reexamination process expected to conclude in mid-2026. The company argues that the rejection ignored successful results in the 'AB-clear' precision medicine subgroup and focused on an insensitive ADCS-ADL endpoint. In the U.S., a Type C meeting with the FDA resulted in a request for the full Phase 2b/3 data package, though no specific NDA filing date was provided. Anavex is also a key partner in the European 'Access AD' initiative, which will fund a new clinical prediction study (AD-006). The pipeline continues to expand with Anavex 3-71 moving toward pivotal schizophrenia trials, and new programs planned for Parkinson's and Fragile X. Financially, the company is well-capitalized with $131.7 million in cash, providing a runway exceeding three years. Operating expenses fell to $6.8 million due to reduced manufacturing and trial activity. Net loss stood at $5.7 million ($0.06/share). Management maintains that their oral, autophagy-enhancing therapy offers a scalable and effective alternative to existing injectable Alzheimer's treatments, particularly when applying genetic screening for optimal patient response.

Valuation & Metrics

Market Stats

Price$3.03
Market Cap$281M
Enterprise Value$149M
P/S Ratio0.0x
P/FCF--
EV/FCF--
FCF Margin (TTM)0.0%
FCF Yield-12.1%
Dividend Yield (TTM)--
Annual Dilution5.0%
CurrencyUSD

TTM Financial Snapshot

Revenue$0.0M
Net Income$-40.0M
Free Cash Flow$-34.1M

Revenue Growth (YoY)+0.0%
EBITDA Margin0.0%
Net Margin0.0%
FCF Margin0.0%
CapEx % of Revenue0.0%
SBC % of Revenue0.0%
ROIC-592.6%
WC Change % Rev0.0%
Interest Coverage--

DCF Fair Value Estimate

$1.48
-51.2% upside
Fair Enterprise Value$0M
− Net Debt$-132M
= Fair Equity$132M
Revenue Growth0.0% → 5.0%
FCF Margin0.0% → 25.0%
Discount Rate18.0%
Terminal EV/FCF15.0x

Forward Outlook & Risk

Short Interest

Short % of Float21.2%
Short Shares19.0M
Days to Cover22.8
Change (vs Prior)+0.3%
Short % Float History
21.20%-5.00pp
22.0%24.0%26.0%28.0%30.0%32.0%04-3007-1509-1511-1401-1504-30

Options

Call IV (ATM)85%
Put IV (ATM)101%
ATM Spread3.7%
Call $OI (near money)$474K
Put $OI (near money)$309K
ATM ExpiryJuly 17, 2026 (56D)
ATM Strike$3.0
Major Expirations3
Near-money chain · July 17, 2026
StrikeCall Bid/AskCall OIPut Bid/AskPut OI
$1.00$1.15/$2.301--/$0.750
$2.00$0.25/$1.401--/$0.75234
$3.00$0.20/$0.30229$0.55/$0.65732
$4.00$0.10/$0.15214$0.80/$1.9533
$5.00--/$0.10617$1.75/$2.9041
$6.00--/$0.701,277$2.70/$3.901
$7.00--/$0.30784$3.70/$4.903
$8.00--/$0.055,577$4.70/$5.900
Snapshot: 2026-05-22

Forward Projections & Estimates

NTM Revenue Growth+0.0%
Forward FCF Margin0.0%
Forward EBITDA Margin0.0%
Forward P/FCF--
Forward EV/FCF--
Forward Int. Coverage--
Model Risk Score10/10
Bankruptcy Odds8%
Est. Borrow Rate85.0%
Terminal EV/FCF15.0x
LT Growth5.0%
LT FCF Margin25.0%

Employees

Headcount42
Revenue / Employee$0
Gross Profit / Employee$0
2022: 38 → 2023: 40 → 2024: 42 → 2025: 34 (-4% CAGR)

Cash Runway

46.4months
WATCH

Institutional Ownership

Headline & net flow

NET BUYING

In Q1 2026 so far (quarter still filing), institutions are net buyers — bought 8.1% of float, sold 1.3%. 1 filer moved >1% of shares (1 buying, 0 selling).

Net flow · Q1 2026still filing
+6.8% of float (net)
Bought 8.1% · Sold 1.3%
192 filers reported (last quarter: 197)

Ownership composition

Active
21.3%(-22.9% YoY)
170 filers
hedge / family / endowment
Retail funds
Fidelity, Schwab, 401(k)
Passive
24.9%(-35.0% YoY)
9 filers
Vanguard, iShares, SPDR
Market makers
2.2%(-0.7% YoY)
6 filers
Citadel, Susquehanna
Insiders
0.4%
Form 4 — latest per insider
0%25%50%75%100%2022-062023-032023-122024-092025-062026-03
ActiveRetail fundsPassiveMarket makersRetail direct

Top holders

Fund$ valueCost basisΔ QoQΔ YoYα lifeFund AUM
BlackRock, Inc.Passive$23.4M$5.83+$256K+$2.8M-0.2%$5.69T
STATE STREET CORPPassive$13.9M$7.35+$395K+$4.0M-0.2%$2.89T
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLCPassive$11.9M$3.07+$11.9M+$11.9M$4.04T
TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP$10.0M$4.56+$4.9M+$7.3M-0.9%$117.03B
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLCPassive$6.7M$6.79+$508K+$686K+2.3%$1.61T
SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLPMM$3.1M$8.20+$1.7M+$640K-0.6%$77.14B
Summit Financial, LLC$2.9M$6.14+$114K+$2.9M+0.0%$7.75B
BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/$2.6M$6.54+$1.0M+$1.8M-0.1%$1.36T
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC$2.5M$6.08−$210K+$1.2M-0.2%$760.93B
VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLCPassive$2.4M$3.07+$2.4M+$2.4M$1.91T
AQR CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC$2.3M$3.50+$1.9M+$2.2M-0.2%$218.19B
CHARLES SCHWAB INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC$2.3M$6.86+$269K+$266K+0.7%$645.81B
NORTHERN TRUST CORPPassive$2.2M$8.49−$40K−$29K-0.2%$755.34B
JANE STREET GROUP, LLCMM$2.2M$6.15−$135K+$2.2M-0.1%$92.10B
HRT FINANCIAL LP$2.0M$3.63+$1.7M+$2.0M-0.6%$39.46B
VANGUARD FIDUCIARY TRUST COPassive$2.0M$3.07+$2.0M+$2.0M$395.83B
UBS Group AG$1.7M$8.61+$339K−$117K-0.3%$562.11B
CITADEL ADVISORS LLC$1.7M$7.30+$1.4M+$1.7M-0.4%$138.22B
BARCLAYS PLC$1.7M$7.27+$138K+$1.2M-0.1%$279.69B
FEDERATED HERMES, INC.$1.6M$3.41+$505K+$1.6M-1.1%$61.33B
Cost basis is a volume-weighted estimate from accumulation periods within our 13F history; holders who built their position before our window started will show a stale basis. % above the cost basis is the unrealized gain at the current price.

Trading behavior

Smart-money alpha (lifetime, %/qtr)NEUTRAL
Holders
-0.29%
avg per quarter
Holders (ex-self)
-0.29%
excl. this stock
Buyers (this Q)
-0.38%
71 buyers · $0.03B in
Sellers (this Q)
-0.47%
51 sellers · $0.01B out
alpha coverage: 87% of $ has a lifetime-alpha record
Holder behavior on this stocksource: stock
On big dips (−10%+)
-17.9%
how holders react when this stock falls
On quiet Qs
-21.9%
−10% to +10% baseline
On rallies (+10%+)
-8.7%
how they react when this stock rises
Holders' portfolio flow this Q
+12.4%
inflows — adds are organic
Sellers' portfolio flow this Q
+7.0%
Sellers grew AUM elsewhere — opinionated cut of this stock.
▸ Compare to holder-profile behavior (across all their stocks)
Holder dip (any stock)
-5.8%
Holder mid (any stock)
-3.1%
Holder rally (any stock)
-6.9%

Top Holders Over Time

5-year share-count history (top 10 holders by peak, incl. exited) + price

01.3M2.6M3.9M5.2M$3.07$5.38$7.69$10$122021-062022-062023-062024-062025-062026-03
hover the chart for per-quarter detailprice (right axis)
GREAT LAKES ADVISORS, LLCInvesco Ltd.72KNWAM LLCFRANKLIN RESOURCES INC72KTWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP3.2MMORGAN STANLEY358KCHARLES SCHWAB INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC757KMILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLCTWO SIGMA ADVISERS, LPCITIGROUP INC29K

Analyst Coverage

Analyst Coverage
Analyst Ratings
11
2
Buy: 11Hold: 2Consensus: Buy
Consensus Estimates
QuarterRevenueEBITDANet IncEPSEPS Range# Analysts
2026 Q20M0M-7M$-0.08$-0.08 – $-0.081
2026 Q30M0M-9M$-0.10$-0.10 – $-0.101
2026 Q40M0M-9M$-0.10$-0.10 – $-0.101
2027 Q10M0M-9M$-0.10$-0.10 – $-0.101
2027 Q20M0M-1M$-0.01$-0.01 – $-0.011
2027 Q30M0M6M$0.07$0.07 – $0.071
2027 Q40M0M49M$0.55$0.55 – $0.551
2028 Q10M0M50M$0.56$0.56 – $0.561
2028 Q20M0M50M$0.56$0.56 – $0.561
2028 Q30M0M52M$0.59$0.59 – $0.591

Corporate

Executive Compensation (2022-2024)

Direct Pay$5.7M
Incentive & Other$27.9M
Total Compensation$33.6M
% of Revenue0.0%

Order Flow (FINRA, ~3w lag)

29.9%retail+4.1pp
17.4%dark+1.7pp
week of 2026-04-13
10%20%30%40%50%24-1125-0225-0525-0825-1126-0226-04retail (non-ATS)dark (ATS)
Off-exchange volume from FINRA. Retail = non-ATS (wholesaler PFOF + broker internalization). Dark = ATS (dark-pool crossing networks, institutional). Lit-exchange = remainder.

Filing Risk Analysis

Filing Risk Scores

Anavex Life Sciences: A Dilution-Heavy Biotech Play Under the Shadow of Persistent Securities Litigation

Overall Risk
7/10
Fraud
4/10
Dilution
9/10
Insolvency
5/10
Earnings Overstated
3/10
Hidden Liabilities
6/10
Legal
8/10
Audit Warnings
4/10
Hidden Upside
3/10
Contextually Acceptable
6/10

Counter-Thesis

Counter-Thesis & Recent News

📰 Recent News

In March 2026, Anavex reported that its lead candidate, oral blarcamesine, achieved a 36% improvement in Alzheimer's symptoms (ADAS-Cog13) in a Phase 2b/3 trial, with nearly 50% improvement in a pre-specified group. Long-term data released in late 2025 showed 17.8 months of 'time saved' in cognitive decline compared to historical ADNI controls. Additionally, the company reported a strong fiscal Q1 2026 cash position of $131.7M with over three years of runway and a narrowed net loss of $5.7M compared to $12.1M the prior year (Stock Titan, Investing.com).

🐻 Bear Case

The bear thesis centers on a December 2025 negative opinion from the EMA's CHMP regarding blarcamesine's marketing authorization in Europe, citing inconsistent trial data and high discontinuation rates (up to 50% in some segments) due to CNS-related side effects like dizziness. Bears also point to a $150M at-the-market (ATM) facility that poses significant dilution risk and ongoing shareholder derivative litigation alleging misleading press releases regarding Rett syndrome endpoints (Seeking Alpha, BMF Reports).

🚩 Red Flags

A major red flag is the high rate of treatment discontinuation due to adverse events, which complicates data interpretation for regulatory bodies. The EMA has specifically highlighted 'Day-180 outstanding issues,' signaling major objections. Furthermore, the company faces active litigation (Deangelis derivative suit) alleging breaches of fiduciary duty and misleading omissions in clinical data reporting (DCFmodeling.com, BMF Reports).

⚔️ Competitive Threats

AVXL faces stiff competition from established monoclonal antibodies like Leqembi (Eisai/Biogen) and Kisunla (Eli Lilly). While blarcamesine offers an oral advantage and lacks the ARIA (brain swelling/bleeding) risks associated with its competitors, it must prove its efficacy is robust enough to overcome the regulatory skepticism that has historically favored these injectable treatments (Seeking Alpha).

💬 Customer Sentiment

Patient and advocacy sentiment remains a primary catalyst; there is a strong preference for 'simple oral solutions' over the complex infusions required by competitors. The company continues to receive non-dilutive support and validation from the Michael J. Fox Foundation and the International Rett Foundation, suggesting a high level of trust from patient-centric organizations despite the stock's volatility (Investing.com).

Full Earnings Call Transcript

Full Earnings Call Transcript — Q1 • 2026-02-09

Clint Tomlinson: Good morning, everyone. And welcome to the Anavex Life Sciences Corp. fiscal 2026 first quarter conference call. My name is Clint Tomlinson. I will be your host for today's call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question and answer session. During the session, if you would like to ask a question, please use the Q&A box or raise your hand. Please note this conference is being recorded, and the call will be available on Anavex's website at www.anavex.com. With us today is Dr. Christopher Missling, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Sandra Boenisch, Principal Financial Officer. Before we begin, please note that during this conference call, the company will make some projections and forward-looking statements. These statements are only predictions based on current information and expectations and involve a number of risks and uncertainties. We encourage you to review the company's filings with the SEC, including, without limitation, the company's forms 10-K and 10-Q, to identify the specific factors that may cause actual results or events to differ materially from those described in these forward-looking statements. These factors may include, without limitation, risks inherent in the development and/or commercialization of potential products, uncertainty in the results of clinical trials or regulatory approvals, the need and ability to obtain future capital, and maintenance of intellectual property rights. This conference call discusses investigational uses of agents in development and is not intended to convey conclusions about efficacy or safety. There is no guarantee that any investigational uses of such products will successfully complete clinical development or gain health authority approval. And with that, I would like to turn the call over to Dr. Missling.
Christopher Missling: Thank you, Clint, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for being with us today to review our first quarter financial results and quarterly business update. As we enter 2026, we continue to progress our innovative clinical pipeline with a particular focus on our lead candidate, oral blarcamesine, in early Alzheimer's disease. Based on our commitment to improving the lives of patients with neurological disorders, we remain excited about the therapeutic potential of oral blarcamesine. We look forward to working with the regulatory agencies in Europe and in the US to advance blarcamesine as a potential new treatment option for patients. We recently announced Anavex's participation as a key industry partner in Access AD, a major new European initiative designed to accelerate the adoption of innovative diagnostic and therapeutic approaches for Alzheimer's disease across real-world clinical settings. The multiyear program is funded by the European Commission's Innovative Health Initiative and unites leading academic centers, technology developers, industry innovators, and patient organizations to strengthen equitable access to timely and effective Alzheimer's disease care. As part of the consortium, blarcamesine will be evaluated in a clinical prediction study. As an update to our regulatory pathway, in January, we announced feedback from an FDA Type C meeting in which the FDA shared their feedback on Anavex's development plans. The meeting discussed the potential pathways to support blarcamesine for Alzheimer's disease. In order to move forward, it is expected that existing data from the Phase 2b/3 Anavex 2-73 AD-004 program be submitted to the FDA. In December, as expected, the CHMP adopted a negative opinion on the marketing authorization application for blarcamesine. Subsequently, on December 18, Anavex announced it had requested the EMA to reexamine its opinion. We are working closely with the EMA during this process, which is being led by a different rapporteur and co-rapporteur. In November, we announced presentations at the 18th CTAD conference in San Diego. The oral late-breaking communication on oral blarcamesine Phase 2b/3 trial confirms identified precision medicine patient population, significant broad clinical and quality of life improvements for early Alzheimer's disease patients, and two poster presentations featuring blarcamesine. Looking forward, we will provide both regulatory and clinical trial updates on blarcamesine in other indications such as Parkinson's disease and fragile X. This will include disclosure of planned future clinical trial designs as we continue to advance our therapeutic pipeline. Additionally, new scientific findings will be presented at upcoming conferences or in upcoming publications. An oral presentation at the 16th Intrinsic Capacity Frailty and Sarcopenia Research Conference for Healthy Longevity to be held March 12 at Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg Center in Washington DC. The new findings on a clinical relationship with a biomarker correlation between clinical endpoints and reduced brain region atrophy with blarcamesine in early Alzheimer's disease. A publication on Alzheimer's disease regarding precision medicine AB-clear populations of the Anavex 2-73 AD-004 Phase 2b/3 trial. Another publication on Alzheimer's disease on the precision medicine gene, collagen 24A1, which with an estimated over 70% prevalence in the early Alzheimer's disease population, has the potential to establish effective treatment of early Alzheimer's disease through the effectiveness of autophagy-enhancing blarcamesine. And a publication regarding fragile X, blarcamesine corrects EEG biomarkers of cortical dysfunction in a mouse model of fragile X syndrome. With regard to Anavex 3-71, we will be advancing Anavex 3-71 towards pivotal clinical studies for the treatment of schizophrenia-related disorders. And now I would like to direct the call to Sandra Boenisch, Principal Financial Officer of Anavex, for a financial summary of the recently reported quarter.
Sandra Boenisch: Thanks, Christopher. Good morning to everyone. I am pleased to share with you today our first quarter financial results. Our cash position at December 31 was $131.7 million with no debt. During the quarter, we utilized cash and cash equivalents of $7.1 million in operating activities after taking into account changes in non-cash working capital accounts. As of today, we anticipate that at the current cash utilization rate, our cash runway is more than three years. Our research and development expenses for the quarter were $4.7 million as compared to $10.4 million for the comparable quarter of last year. General and administrative expenses were $2.1 million as compared to $3.1 million for the comparable quarter of last year. And compared to the same quarter of fiscal 2025, we saw a decrease in operating expenses, mostly driven by the completion of a large manufacturing campaign of blarcamesine conducted in fiscal 2025, and a decrease in clinical trial activities as a result of the completion of our Anavex 3-71 Phase II study in schizophrenia. And lastly, we reported a net loss of $5.7 million for the quarter or $0.06 per share. Thanks, and I will turn it back to you, Christopher.
Christopher Missling: Thank you, Sandra. In summary, we are focused on continuing to advance the development of our precision medicine compounds and are excited to be potentially making a difference to individuals suffering from neurological diseases by presenting scalable treatment options alongside the ease of oral administration. I would now like to turn the call back to Clint for Q&A.
Clint Tomlinson: Thank you, Christopher. We will now begin the Q&A session. If you have a question, please raise your hand or enter it in the Q&A box. And our first question will come from Ram Selvajara from HC Wainwright. You should be connected now, Ram. But I see you muted. Hello? Can you hear me?
Ram Selvajara: Yes. Thanks so much for taking our questions. Firstly, I was wondering if you could, at this juncture, provide us with some additional information regarding who the rapporteur and co-rapporteur are for the reexamination of the CHMP opinion on blarcamesine.
Christopher Missling: The 27 countries of the EU decide on two rapporteurs. One of the two countries of the 27 will be rapporteurs.
Ram Selvajara: Okay. Can you provide us with additional information regarding the timeline with which the reexamination is likely to occur? My understanding is that, in effect, it starts a new clock, but that this might be as short as six months. Can you confirm that?
Christopher Missling: That is correct. It is a sixty plus sixty day period where we respond to the reexamination request. And then the review by the two rapporteurs will take another sixty days. So that's why we stated that we expect this process to last for the first half of this year. Can you provide a timeline regarding when you anticipate potentially filing a formal NDA submission with the FDA? This is a plan we will advance once we are getting closer. But the last meeting was very productive we had with the FDA. And so we continue with this request, which we were given that we will provide the full data package to the FDA for addressing their review and expecting next steps from there.
Ram Selvajara: Can you just remind us what type of meeting this was that you held with the FDA, the most recent one?
Christopher Missling: That was a Type C meeting.
Ram Selvajara: Okay. Thank you.
Clint Tomlinson: Thank you, Ram. Next question comes from Tom Bishop of BI Research. Tom, you should be on now.
Tom Bishop: Ring. Can you hear me?
Clint Tomlinson: Yes. Go ahead.
Tom Bishop: Can you go into a little bit more detail about what additional information will be in the resubmission to the EMA in terms of will ABC clear data be in there, varying volume data, follow 24A1, and OLE. Can you just give us a little bit more meat on the bone?
Christopher Missling: That's absolutely possible. So for background, in the resubmission, we are able to address and provide feedback on the arguments why this drug should be reexamined for approval for EMA review. And as a reminder, there is a requirement for granting conditional approval if the disease is serious, if there's a major unmet need, if the data shows clinically meaningful effects, if there's a strong mechanistic rationale especially linking genetic variants, and if the supporting evidence from translational data is available and the sponsor is then also committing to a study in executing it and confirming the efficacy during the approval process. And we are including the data of the AD-004 study, the open-label study, the data on the AB-clear study population, as well as the correlation of the efficacy of the clinical efficacy with the brain atrophy reduction.
Tom Bishop: Now was none of that actually in the, you know, those last few that you mentioned in the original submission such that this could potentially be more persuasive as it is for me.
Christopher Missling: Yeah. It's really like a process, I would say, and we also understand that is something which a counterparty has to digest. And maybe that is the reason also we've seen now in the past several cases where even with drugs which were prior approved already, and with very large companies submitting those, you know, trial data, well, ended up at the same situation where we ended up today as well. But, we can, of course, not guarantee the approval in this reexamination procedure. But it seems to be a question of how to repackage or rearticulate the strength of the package or of the data.
Tom Bishop: Okay. And with the FDA, I know the question was asked when might you file this data with the FDA. I mean, it kinda already exists, so I'm was just wondering if you can be any more clear about why we can't they can't why you can't get that data to the FDA very soon?
Christopher Missling: It's in process, and you have to also understand the FDA has a certain meeting request which requires some time to schedule. And this is in the process as well. So that's why it's not like you just ship something over, and then you get feedback you have to make it in consistency with a meeting request. And that's what will happen.
Tom Bishop: Okay. Are there any correct me if I'm getting the scene out here, but are there any trials currently in progress? The only trial we have ongoing is right now the compassionate use program for Rett syndrome. In three countries, in three continents. In Canada, in the UK, in Australia, and we have also the compassionate use ongoing for Alzheimer's disease. So we are planning now the studies in Parkinson's disease, in fragile X, and another indication which is not disclosed yet, and we also will proceed with the Alzheimer trial which we I mentioned before.
Tom Bishop: Okay. Well, is the it's been a little while since the Rett trial finished, the Parkinson's trial was finished several years now, and I'm just wondering if you can give us any near-term timeline for first trial. Some of these schizophrenia, just wrapped up that.
Christopher Missling: Yeah.
Tom Bishop: As to when something we'll we'll we'll get something in this clinic. Yeah. Yep. Absolutely good question. We also plan a schizophrenia program to continue. As I mentioned this morning, so we are really gonna be very busy with trials, and we are very excited about it. And just to let you know, the Parkinson's disease trial has not been started yet. It was Parkinson's disease dementia. But it's the basis of which we are executing the Parkinson's disease trial.
Tom Bishop: Okay. I guess that's it for me for now. Thank you.
Clint Tomlinson: Thank you, Tom. The next question will come from Jesse Silveira from Spirit of the Coast Analytics. You can go ahead, Jesse. Hear me alright?
Jesse Silveira: Yes. Thank you. Hi. Good morning. This is Jesse Silveira with Spirit of the Coast Analytics. Thank you for taking my questions today. Before we get into some of my, I guess, more elaborate questions, maybe we can start with some quicker pitches. First up, something a lot of people have been kind of scratching their heads on is clarity for CHMP rejection, in particular, we know that blarcamesine works better for patients with sigma-1 wild type. As a part of the CHMP rejection, the agency stated, and I quote, the main study failed to demonstrate effectiveness and safety of blarcamesine Anavex, in patients with early Alzheimer's disease who do not have a mutation in the sigma-1 gene, end quote. So this statement appears contrary to the facts because the drug is effective for patients, who do not have a mutation in the sigma-1 gene, also known as sigma-1 wild type. So is it the company's opinion that the CHMP made an error in how they phrased their rejection, or can you clarify the company's understanding of this statement in particular?
Christopher Missling: Yeah. We would not criticize the regulatory bodies, but we would say that in consistency with our interpretation of the trial, we met the ADAS-cog 13 and there was more significant in the wild type sigma-1 population as well as in the from the boxes which also was superior to the ITT in the wild type compared to the ITT population. The ADL ADCS ADL endpoint, was the only one which was not significant, although it was trending positively. And as we and the academic world found out that this scale is not sensitive enough to pick up the changes of activities of the living in forty-eight weeks in an early Alzheimer's population. So that is the maybe the only difference in interpretation of the trial. That that was, maybe differently evaluated. But now when you go to the AB-clear population, you will see, and we submitted that for publication. It's already publicly available a preprint that the AB-clear population, which includes sigma-1 wild type, carriers with the collagen 24A1 wild type, gene that those patients have significance reached significance across the board. So for ADAS-cog 13, for ADCS ADL, and for CDR Sum of the Boxes. And they're not only achieving significance, but they're also achieved this with highly clinically meaningful effect sizes, which are sometimes two to three times larger than, what we have seen so far from other compounds. In the pipeline or on the market. So that's kind of, like, why this is intriguing now to also point that out and and have that discussion put that forward.
Jesse Silveira: Okay. Thank you for that. And I'm gonna have I'm gonna skip around a minute just because you kind of led into it. So stated in your Borrow Capital interview with Jason a few weeks ago that the reexamination would be under a CMA path and not a full market authorization. And in the interview, you explained that ADCS ADL one of your co-primary endpoints had been invalidated as a reliable measure during your trial analysis phase due to a lack of sensitivity found within the community despite its previous status as the gold standard in Alzheimer's trials. You then went into detail about new statistical methodology that the company was looking to use featuring a higher p-value threshold of 0.0167. And I know that the company has met ADAS-cog 13 and CDR Sum of the Boxes across all genetic cohorts with this p-value or better. So the question is, does using this new threshold allow the company to circumnavigate the ADCS ADL miss, and will regulators in your view, accept the scientific invalidation of ADCS ADL combined with your new gatekeeping strategy? If you can give any on that.
Christopher Missling: Yeah. As I just stated, this is exactly the discussion which is probably ongoing if this ADL is 4. And if you follow science, you would agree with that. Because it's an endpoint which has been earmarked as being useful for overt Alzheimer, for moderate and severe Alzheimer, but not sensitive enough for the early Alzheimer population. And that was confirmed actually in guidances from the regulatory bodies. So you would assume that that is a fair argument to have, and, we stated that argument and to make that argument as well.
Jesse Silveira: Okay. Thank you for that. And, with that said, you went over the sixty plus sixty day timeline earlier for this reevaluation. We should be, I believe, near sixty days now. Have you already submitted the new strategy and package to CHMP and has a SAG been appointed yet?
Christopher Missling: We will update everybody once we have the result of this process. We will not comment on the ongoing process. But the SEC will be part of the review process since we requested that, and we will expect this to be given to us a dialogue involving the SAG, the Scientific Advisory Group from the EMA for from the neurology team.
Jesse Silveira: Okay. Thank you. And if I have it correct, you have committed to running a confirmatory phase four trial if approved for CMA using paying patients as a real-world cohort. Isn't is that correct?
Christopher Missling: Sorry. What patients?
Jesse Silveira: Like, paying patients in the EU. So assuming you are actually approved under CMA, will you be running a phase four trial with these patients? We will. Or how would that look, I guess?
Christopher Missling: Yeah. We would run a trial as the regulatory body the CHM guidelines, provides for. That you get approved, and then in parallel, you will run a confirmatory study. Yes.
Jesse Silveira: Okay. And I think relevant to additional Alzheimer's trials, is on January 28th of this year, Alzheimer Europe launched the prevalence of dementia in Europe 2025 report which projected a 64% surge in dementia across Europe by 2050. Based on our research, it appears that Europe is not on course to meet projected health strategies, especially those centered on dementia. And it looks like they're kind of, as a as the EU, moving away from social work and dimension favor of defense and economy. In light of these statements, it's our understanding that Anavex is set to participate in Access AD, funded by the European Commission. Can you please give more detail on how blarcamesine, a currently unapproved drug, is to be involved in this program? Like, is the company running this trial? Are endpoints and objectives of this trial? When will the first patient be dosed, or anything else you'd like to offer.
Christopher Missling: The Access AD program is really a great opportunity for acknowledging Anavex as a participant and being part of the ecosystem in Europe for Alzheimer's disease, which involves both academic institutions as well as government entities and advocacy groups within Europe. So we're very pleased and excited about being part of that. A specific carve-out or not carve-out, especially part of this very large grant, if you like, is a dedicated clinical trial of blarcamesine as a placebo-controlled trial to look for data of prediction of the effect of blarcamesine in Alzheimer patients, in early Alzheimer patients, and that involves, review of biomarkers, and novel biomarkers, looking at autophagy signals, and, also including efficacy. And we're planning to use this trial also for a regulatory, specific, goal. So we will make this trial part of our package for confirming the efficacy of blarcamesine in early Alzheimer's disease. So it's a very intriguing project to be part of. And the Access AD program consists of multiple features. Among them is also a review of healthy diet. Also, a supplement diet is part of that. And, they're all separate. They're not together. And as I just mentioned, one part is explicitly a trial of blarcamesine. In our placebo-controlled clinical trial.
Jesse Silveira: I'm sorry if you mentioned is this an early Alzheimer's patients, or is this is there, like, a preventative component to this trial?
Christopher Missling: Yeah. So it's a good question. It could end up being a preventative also, but right now, it's consistent with an early Alzheimer's population as a target population.
Jesse Silveira: Okay. And this would be considered AD-006 on your pipeline chart. Is that correct?
Christopher Missling: That's correct. Yes.
Jesse Silveira: Okay. AD-006. Okay. Great. And I think I'm finishing up here. Is the atrophy to clinical improvement analysis or paper complete? And maybe if you could give any expectations on when we could get eyes on that.
Christopher Missling: The yeah. So we have submitted now three papers. We I mentioned this morning. And the atrophy paper is still not submitted, but will be submitted soon as well.
Jesse Silveira: Okay. Great. And okay. That's pretty much all I have. Kudos on your JPM presentation and the new website format. They look great. And it's striking how little to lose I think, the CHMP has by granting a CMA considerably considering this, you know, the soundly claimed safety and efficacy the drug on cognition, objective brain atrophy markers, not to mention patient-assessed improvements. Measured by the quality of life AD survey. So we have no further questions, and thank you again for having us.
Christopher Missling: We appreciate that. Thank you.
Clint Tomlinson: Thank you, Jesse.
Christopher Missling: Doctor Missling, we have no more questions at this time.
Clint Tomlinson: Thank you. So in closing, we continue to focus on execution as we advance our therapeutic pipeline to potentially improve patients' lives living with these devastating conditions. We are energized by the possibility of making a meaningful impact for people living with neurological diseases offering treatment options that are not only scalable, but also far easier to administer through an oral route. By lowering barriers to access and simplifying delivery, we hope to bring innovative therapies to a broader population and improve quality of life in a tangible way. Thank you.
Christopher Missling: Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for participating in the call today. We appreciate it. And this will conclude the conference. You may now disconnect.