AM

Antero Midstream Corporation
Energy·Oil & Gas Midstream
$20.96
$10.0B market cap
Claude Rating
5/10HOLD
Revenue
$1.3B
Free Cash Flow
$916.0M
Rev Growth
+8.6%
FCF Margin
71.2%
P/FCF
10.9x
EV/FCF
14.9x
Fwd EV/EBITDA
12.9x
Fair Value
$18.50
Upside
-11.7%

Antero Midstream Corporation owns, operates, and develops midstream energy infrastructure. It operates through Gathering and Processing, and Water Handling segments. The Gathering and Processing segment includes a network of gathering pipelines and compressor stations that collects and processes production from Antero Resources' wells in West Virginia and Ohio. The Water Handling segment delivers fresh water; and offers pumping stations, water storage, and blending facilities. The company was in

2-Year Price History

$22.17+66.4%
$14$16$18$20$22volMay 24Sep 24Jan 25May 25Sep 25Jan 26May 26

Quarterly Financials & Projections

Quarterly Waterfall ($ M)
PeriodRevEBITDAOpInNIOCFFCFCapExCashDebtSharesROICIntCovEV/EBITDA
Est2028-Q1390.0302.3--142.4--245.7-39.01,806----------
Est2027-Q4385.0298.4--142.5--246.4-38.51,560----------
Est2027-Q3378.0291.1--138.0--238.1-39.71,314----------
Est2027-Q2370.0283.1--133.2--229.4-40.71,076----------
Est2027-Q1360.0273.6--126.0--216.0-39.6846.2----------
Est2026-Q4355.0268.0--122.5--220.1-42.6630.2----------
Est2026-Q3350.0262.5--119.0--210.0-49.0410.1----------
Est2026-Q2345.0255.3--113.9--200.1-44.9200.1----------
Act2026-Q1335.4241.8186.0118.3238.6200.7-37.90.03,713478.014.9%4.5x14.5x
Act2025-Q4314.7238.5187.251.9255.5206.7-48.8180.43,223482.218.3%5.1x12.1x
Act2025-Q3312.5261.0180.5116.0212.8280.1-67.30.03,009481.815.7%5.5x11.3x
Act2025-Q2323.1267.5186.4124.5265.2228.5-36.70.03,024482.516.4%5.6x11.6x
Act2025-Q1308.8255.7177.2120.7198.9168.4-30.50.03,111484.415.8%5.3x10.8x
Act2024-Q4305.1256.0177.7111.2232.7366.1-133.40.03,117486.114.8%5.2x10.8x
Act2024-Q3287.5240.0162.499.7184.9130.0-54.90.03,172485.513.5%4.6x11.1x
Act2024-Q2287.5221.9152.886.0215.8172.4-43.40.03,187484.813.4%4.3x10.9x
Act2024-Q1296.7248.5166.3103.9210.6175.5-35.126.13,175484.313.9%4.7x10.0x
Act2023-Q4277.8208.4156.0100.5208.3154.4-54.00.13,213483.713.3%4.0x9.8x
Act2023-Q3281.5238.1162.397.8202.4171.4-31.00.03,259482.813.1%4.3x9.7x
Act2023-Q2276.0224.4145.587.0185.6155.6-30.00.03,307481.512.0%4.0x9.5x
Act2023-Q1277.1225.7148.386.5182.7139.5-43.20.03,331481.511.8%4.1x9.7x
Act2022-Q4259.2219.2144.282.8168.6-156.6-325.20.03,361481.011.2%4.2x9.4x
Act2022-Q3248.7214.1137.883.9176.8118.1-58.70.03,143480.311.3%4.5x--
Act2022-Q2246.6204.6128.479.3169.5108.6-60.90.03,158480.310.6%4.5x--
Act2022-Q1236.2198.4129.279.9184.7113.9-70.70.03,133480.210.4%4.5x--

AI Analysis

LLM Evaluations

Claude5/10HOLDFV: $18.50

Antero Midstream is a high-margin, capital-efficient midstream operator with an 11-year streak of EBITDA growth and a strong organic growth runway supported by Appalachian gas demand tailwinds (LNG, data centers, power gen). However, the stock's current valuation at ~15x EV/FCF prices in much of this upside, while the structural risks are significant: 100% revenue dependence on a single affiliate, zero cash on the balance sheet post-acquisition, leverage at low-3x with $442M in floating-rate exposure, and a dividend payout ratio exceeding 100% of net income. The HG acquisition adds long-term inventory but was debt-funded and immediately dilutive to balance sheet quality. At $21.86, the stock is fairly valued to slightly overvalued given the risk profile, offering a ~4.1% dividend yield with mid-single-digit growth — adequate but not compelling versus peers with better diversification and lower leverage.

Catalyst Completion of water system integration by YE2026 unlocking high-single-digit EBITDA growth in 2027; potential data center/power contracts in WV providing incremental high-ROIC volume growth; resolution of $280M Veolia legal judgment (currently under appeal).
Risk Complete revenue dependence on Antero Resources — any drilling slowdown, financial distress, or contract renegotiation at AR would immediately impair AM's cash flows, potentially triggering impairment of $1.68B in customer relationship intangibles and jeopardizing the dividend.
Trend
STABLE
Mgmt
7/10
Quarter
6/10
Exp. Move
-2.0%

Latest Earnings Call

Transcript Summary

Antero Midstream Corporation delivered a strong Q1 2026, highlighted by the closing of its largest-ever acquisition and a 5% increase in Adjusted EBITDA to $288 million. Despite challenging winter weather, the company maintained operational continuity and generated $85 million in free cash flow after dividends. A significant focus for the remainder of the year is the integration of the newly acquired assets, which requires approximately $25 million in capital. The water system component of this integration is on track for completion by year-end, paving the way for high-single-digit EBITDA growth in 2027. Management is also increasingly optimistic about incremental demand from data centers and local power projects in Northern West Virginia, where AM’s status as a primary infrastructure builder provides a strategic advantage. With a leverage ratio trending toward 3.0x and high-return organic projects in the pipeline, the company remains confident in its 2026 guidance. The synergy between AM and its upstream partner, Antero Resources, continues to drive capital efficiency and reliable volume growth across its rich and dry gas systems, supporting a bullish long-term outlook for the company.

Valuation & Metrics

Market Stats

Price$20.96
Market Cap$10.0B
Enterprise Value$13.7B
P/S Ratio7.7x
P/FCF10.9x
EV/FCF14.9x
FCF Margin (TTM)71.2%
FCF Yield9.2%
Dividend Yield (TTM)--
Annual Dilution-1.3%
CurrencyUSD

TTM Financial Snapshot

Revenue$1.3B
Net Income$410.7M
Free Cash Flow$916.0M

Revenue Growth (YoY)+8.6%
EBITDA Margin78.5%
Net Margin31.9%
FCF Margin71.2%
CapEx % of Revenue14.8%
SBC % of Revenue3.4%
ROIC16.3%
WC Change % Rev-2.6%
Interest Coverage5.2x

DCF Fair Value Estimate

$16.78
-20.0% upside
Fair Enterprise Value$11.7B
− Net Debt$3.7B
= Fair Equity$8.0B
Revenue Growth8.0% → 3.0%
FCF Margin71.2% → 55.0%
Discount Rate13.0%
Terminal EV/FCF13.0x

Forward Outlook & Risk

Short Interest

Short % of Float3.5%
Short Shares11.5M
Days to Cover4.1
Change (vs Prior)+5.5%
Short % Float History
3.50%+0.20pp
2.6%2.8%3.0%3.2%3.4%3.6%3.8%04-3007-1509-1511-1401-1504-30

Options

Call IV (ATM)25%
Put IV (ATM)29%
ATM Spread0.45%
Call $OI (near money)$2.8M
Put $OI (near money)$284K
ATM ExpiryJuly 17, 2026 (56D)
ATM Strike$22.0
Major Expirations4
Near-money chain · July 17, 2026
StrikeCall Bid/AskCall OIPut Bid/AskPut OI
$19.00$2.90/$3.601$0.05/$0.1520
$20.00$2.00/$2.700$0.15/$0.3071
$21.00$1.55/$1.756$0.40/$0.500
$22.00$1.00/$1.106$0.75/$0.900
$23.00$0.55/$0.6555$1.20/$1.450
$24.00$0.25/$0.401,296$1.50/$2.550
$25.00$0.10/$0.200$2.35/$3.400
$26.00--/$0.1061$3.20/$4.500
Snapshot: 2026-05-22

Forward Projections & Estimates

NTM Revenue Growth+9.7%
Forward FCF Margin60.0%
Forward EBITDA Margin75.1%
Forward P/FCF11.8x
Forward EV/FCF16.1x
Forward Int. Coverage5.1x
Model Risk Score5/10
Bankruptcy Odds4%
Est. Borrow Rate6.0%
Terminal EV/FCF13.0x
LT Growth3.0%
LT FCF Margin55.0%

Employees

Headcount616
Revenue / Employee$2,087,211
Gross Profit / Employee$1,346,646
2022: 586 → 2023: 604 → 2024: 616 → 2025: 632 (3% CAGR)

Institutional Ownership

Headline & net flow

NET BUYING

In Q1 2026 so far (quarter still filing), institutions are net buyers — bought 8.4% of float, sold 3.6%.

Net flow · Q1 2026still filing
+4.8% of float (net)
Bought 8.4% · Sold 3.6%
527 filers reported (last quarter: 511)

Ownership composition

Active
36.9%(+8.7% YoY)
479 filers
hedge / family / endowment
Retail funds
Fidelity, Schwab, 401(k)
Passive
15.7%(-2.6% YoY)
6 filers
Vanguard, iShares, SPDR
Market makers
0.2%(-0.1% YoY)
7 filers
Citadel, Susquehanna
Insiders
1.4%
Form 4 — latest per insider
0%25%50%75%100%2022-062023-032023-122024-092025-062026-03
ActiveRetail fundsPassiveMarket makersRetail direct

Top holders

Fund$ valueCost basisΔ QoQΔ YoYα lifeFund AUM
BlackRock, Inc.Passive$846M$14.01−$47.3M−$33.1M-0.2%$5.69T
Invesco Ltd.$491M$10.38−$43.0M−$207M-0.2%$652.04B
STATE STREET CORPPassive$264M$12.35+$5.8M−$705K-0.2%$2.89T
TORTOISE CAPITAL ADVISORS, L.L.C.$254M$14.16−$5.6M+$42.1M+1.9%$9.60B
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLCPassive$226M$16.03−$13.1M+$83.8M+2.3%$1.61T
Bank of New York Mellon Corp$208M$18.55+$21.0M+$71.5M+0.5%$543.21B
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LPPassive$206M$8.68−$5.1M−$3.0M-0.4%$480.92B
Neuberger Berman Group LLC$166M$9.19−$3.8M−$541K+0.1%$131.37B
MORGAN STANLEY$143M$11.16+$5.0M+$7.4M-0.3%$1.65T
KAYNE ANDERSON CAPITAL ADVISORS LP$96.9M$16.39−$6.5M+$29.8M+1.8%$5.22B
CHARLES SCHWAB INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC$89.8M$11.83+$2.2M+$2.3M+1.0%$645.81B
MIRAE ASSET GLOBAL ETFS HOLDINGS Ltd.$89.0M$14.26−$3.3M−$17.3M+1.7%$73.71B
Clearbridge Investments, LLC$85.3M$9.66+$2.4M−$567K-0.1%$114.75B
NORTHERN TRUST CORPPassive$85.1M$12.90−$163K−$6.6M-0.2%$755.34B
BTIM Corp.$78.2M$17.42−$6.3M+$13.3M-0.6%$12.16B
ALLIANCEBERNSTEIN L.P.$68.0M$20.64+$76.0M+$60.1M-0.3%$307.70B
Blackstone Group L.P.$64.1M$16.24+$9.5M+$60.2M+3.0%$24.20B
Qube Research & Technologies Ltd$59.9M$17.44+$1.5M+$59.9M+0.3%$70.36B
PRUDENTIAL FINANCIAL INC$59.5M$21.24+$59.0M+$58.7M-0.1%$81.20B
Clark Capital Management Group, Inc.$58.2M$21.68+$42.9M+$58.2M+0.4%$16.21B
Cost basis is a volume-weighted estimate from accumulation periods within our 13F history; holders who built their position before our window started will show a stale basis. % above the cost basis is the unrealized gain at the current price.

Trading behavior

Smart-money alpha (lifetime, %/qtr)NEUTRAL
Holders
+0.33%
avg per quarter
Holders (ex-self)
+0.32%
excl. this stock
Buyers (this Q)
+0.16%
244 buyers · $0.96B in
Sellers (this Q)
+0.64%
169 sellers · $-0.40B out
alpha coverage: 100% of $ has a lifetime-alpha record
Holder behavior on this stocksource: stock
On big dips (−10%+)
+3.0%
how holders react when this stock falls
On quiet Qs
+2.3%
−10% to +10% baseline
On rallies (+10%+)
-20.8%
how they react when this stock rises
Holders' portfolio flow this Q
+239.6%
inflows — adds are organic
Sellers' portfolio flow this Q
-0.5%
Sellers' overall flow ~ flat.
▸ Compare to holder-profile behavior (across all their stocks)
Holder dip (any stock)
-2.8%
Holder mid (any stock)
-1.7%
Holder rally (any stock)
-2.8%

Top Holders Over Time

5-year share-count history (top 10 holders by peak, incl. exited) + price

019.9M39.7M59.6M79.5M$7.02$11$15$19$232021-062022-062023-062024-062025-062026-03
hover the chart for per-quarter detailprice (right axis)
Invesco Ltd.21.6MTORTOISE CAPITAL ADVISORS, L.L.C.11.2MBank of New York Mellon Corp9.1MNeuberger Berman Group LLC7.3MPacer Advisors, Inc.MORGAN STANLEY6.3MClearbridge Investments, LLC3.7MKAYNE ANDERSON CAPITAL ADVISORS LP4.2MTinicum IncCHARLES SCHWAB INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC3.9M

Related Stocks

Investors who own this also own

Stocks held by the same active managers as this one, ranked by score — how much more often these appear together than random chance (1× = baseline). Excludes index ETFs and market makers; minimum 3 shared holders.

TickerNameCo-holdersScore
HESMHess Midstream LP4188.21×
DTMDT Midstream, Inc.6141.16×
WESWestern Midstream Partners, LP697.72×
PBAPembina Pipeline Corporation494.10×
MPLXMPLX Lp889.15×
PAGPPlains GP Holdings, L.P.484.69×
PAAPlains All American Pipeline, L.P.467.75×
TRGPTarga Resources Corp.767.37×
TRPTC Energy Corporation456.46×
OKEONEOK, Inc.741.75×
KMIKinder Morgan, Inc.734.87×
GNRCGenerac Holdings Inc.334.34×

Analyst Coverage

Analyst Coverage
Price Targets
Last Quarter (1 analysts)$23.00970.0%
Last Year (2 analysts)$21.50260.0%
Current Price$20.96

Corporate

Executive Compensation (2023-2025)

Direct Pay$120.7M
Incentive & Other$10.6M
Total Compensation$131.3M
% of Revenue3.6%

Insider Trading (last 12mo)

Open-market only (Form 4 P-Purchase + S-Sale). Excludes grants, option exercises, tax withholding, gifts.
Officers & directors
Buys ($, 12mo)
$0
0 txns · 0 insiders · 0 sh
Sells ($, 12mo)
$5.58M
8 txns · 4 insiders · 262,424 sh
Recent transactions
DateSideInsiderTitleSharesPriceDollarsOwned $
2026-05-04SELLKennedy Michael N.director, officer: See Remarks100,000$21.92$2.19M$32.89M
2026-05-04SELLSchultz Yvette Kdirector, officer: See Remarks69,269$21.90$1.52M$12.71M
2026-03-12SELLKLIMLEY BROOKS Jdirector5,000$23.16$116K$1.61M
2026-03-10SELLPearce Sheriofficer: See Remarks14,000$22.76$319K$2.27M
2026-03-09SELLSchultz Yvette Kdirector, officer: See Remarks25,000$22.81$570K$14.82M
2025-12-16SELLKLIMLEY BROOKS Jdirector5,000$17.59$88K$1.28M
2025-08-20SELLPearce Sheriofficer: See Remarks39,155$17.51$686K$1.86M
2025-05-28SELLKLIMLEY BROOKS Jdirector5,000$18.88$94K$1.39M

Order Flow (FINRA, ~3w lag)

17.9%retail+5.2pp
20.1%dark+3.9pp
week of 2026-04-27
10%15%20%25%30%35%40%24-1125-0225-0525-0825-1126-0226-04retail (non-ATS)dark (ATS)
Off-exchange volume from FINRA. Retail = non-ATS (wholesaler PFOF + broker internalization). Dark = ATS (dark-pool crossing networks, institutional). Lit-exchange = remainder.

Dividends

TTM Dividend/Share$0.90
Dividend Yield4.3%

Revenue Breakdown

Revenue Segments

By Product (2026-Q1)
Natural Gas Gathering Transportation Marketing And Processing Affiliate$262.0M+10%
Natural Gas Water Handling And Treatment Affiliate$72.8M+4%
Natural Gas Water Handling And Treatment$0.3M-38%
By Geography (2016-Q4)
North American Social Expression Products$338.0M-3%

Filing Risk Analysis

Filing Risk Scores

Antero Midstream Corporation: Affiliate Co-dependency and the Zero-Cash Dividend Paradox

Overall Risk
7/10
Fraud
4/10
Dilution
3/10
Insolvency
8/10
Earnings Overstated
6/10
Hidden Liabilities
5/10
Legal
3/10
Audit Warnings
5/10
Hidden Upside
6/10
Contextually Acceptable
6/10

Counter-Thesis

Counter-Thesis & Recent News

📰 Recent News

Antero Midstream (AM) reported a mixed-to-weak start to 2026 (projected in recent reports), missing Q1 EPS consensus with $0.29 against an expected $0.34, despite revenue growth of 8% year-over-year. A significant headwind cited in late 2024 was a 'slightly weak' Q3 result that prompted Goldman Sachs to trim its price target to $14.50. Furthermore, while the $1.11B acquisition of HG Midstream in February 2026 boosted volumes, it significantly increased long-term debt to approximately $3.67B. Insider selling was also noted in early 2026, with 44,000 shares sold by insiders during the first quarter (Sources: Seeking Alpha, Investing.com, Perplexity AI).

🐻 Bear Case

The primary bear case rests on a 'stretched' valuation where the stock is trading at a P/E ratio nearing 20-25x for only single-digit growth guidance. Analysts at Seeking Alpha and GuruFocus argue the stock is 30%+ overvalued, with a fair value estimate closer to $13.00-$16.50. Additionally, the dividend payout ratio has recently hovered at an unsustainable 104.65%, making the 7% yield look risky unless earnings growth accelerates beyond current mid-single-digit projections (Sources: Seeking Alpha, MarketBeat, GuruFocus).

🚩 Red Flags

Heavy single-customer concentration remains the most critical red flag, as AM derives nearly all its revenue from Antero Resources (AR). Any drilling slowdown or financial distress at AR directly threatens AM's cash flow. Other red flags include rising operating expenses—which grew 10% year-over-year due to labor and maintenance costs—and exposure to rising interest rates via $442 million in floating-rate debt under its credit facility (Sources: GuruFocus, SEC Filings).

⚔️ Competitive Threats

AM faces increasing pressure from massive consolidation in the Appalachian Basin, notably from EQT Corporation's post-merger scale and Williams' dominance in high-value export flows. Regional competition from integrated giants like Kinder Morgan and MPLX limits AM's ability to diversify its customer base, while tightening EPA methane emission rules and state-level permitting headwinds for new pipelines increase the cost of maintaining aging infrastructure (Source: Matrix BCG).

💬 Customer Sentiment

Customer sentiment is almost entirely dependent on one entity: Antero Resources. While AR is currently investment-grade and stable, the sentiment for AM is inherently tied to AR's capital expenditure plans. If AR shifts focus to debt reduction or slows production due to natural gas price volatility, AM's 'just-in-time' capital model becomes a liability rather than an asset. Market sentiment reflects this 'Hold' consensus, with analysts like Morgan Stanley and UBS maintaining neutral stances due to limited upside at current price levels (Sources: Seeking Alpha, MarketBeat).

Full Earnings Call Transcript

Full Earnings Call Transcript — Q1 • 2026-04-30

Operator: Greetings, and welcome to the Antero Midstream Corporation First Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. At this time, participants are in a listen-only mode. A question and answer session will follow a formal presentation. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce Dan Katzenberg, Vice President of Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.
Dan Katzenberg: Thank you for joining us for Antero Midstream Corporation's first quarter investor conference call. I will spend a few minutes going through the financial and operating highlights, and then we will open it up for Q&A. I would also like to direct you to the homepage of our website at anteromidstream.com, where we have provided a separate earnings call presentation that will be reviewed during today's call. Today's call may contain certain non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to our earnings press release for important disclosures regarding such measures. Joining me on the call today are Michael Kennedy, CEO and President of Antero Midstream Corporation; Justin Agnew, CFO of Antero Midstream Corporation; and Brendan E. Krueger, CFO of Antero. With that, I will turn the call over to Michael Kennedy.
Michael Kennedy: Thanks, Dan. Good morning, everyone. I will start my comments on Slide three. The first quarter of 2026 was an exciting quarter for Antero Midstream Corporation as we continued to make progress on our strategic initiatives. We successfully navigated adverse winter weather conditions and delivered another quarter of EBITDA and free cash flow growth. In addition, we closed the company's largest acquisition to date in February, which was ahead of our initial expectations. These achievements highlight two of Antero Midstream Corporation's greatest strengths: a world-class asset base in the lowest-cost basin in North America and the hard work and dedication from our team. As we look ahead, recent geopolitical events and data center announcements highlight the significant demand growth for U.S. energy both domestic and abroad. Given this outlook, we are focused on enhancing connectivity within our operating areas, particularly in the dry gas area and the newly acquired assets, providing cost-effective integrated solutions for this demand growth. Our balance sheet, scale, and integrated planning with our investment-grade producer position us well to capitalize on these growth opportunities. Now let us move on to Slide four to highlight some of our 2026 growth projects. At the end of the first quarter, we commissioned our dry gas compression expansion depicted on the right-hand side of the page. This station utilized relocated and repurposed units to support our first dry gas Marcellus pad in over a decade. During the first quarter, we also commenced our initial water system integration efforts. This capital investment to connect Antero Midstream Corporation's water system to the acquired water system is on track to be completed by year-end and will allow AM to begin servicing completions on the acquired assets in 2027. Today, there are currently three rigs running on AM-dedicated acreage on the rich gas system, one in the dry gas system, and one on the acquired blended system. This balanced and consistent development program delivers low-cost volume growth and is expected to drive high-single-digit EBITDA growth for the foreseeable future. In summary, we are off to a great start in 2026 executing our capital-efficient growth plan. Beyond our base business, we continue to be active in opportunities to further extend and enhance that growth outlook to support the increasing demand for natural gas. With that, I will turn the call over to Justin.
Justin Agnew: Thanks, Mike. I will start with our first quarter highlights on Slide five. During the first quarter, we took over operations of our newly acquired assets right in the middle of winter [inaudible]. As you can see from our results, we did not experience any outages during the storm, highlighting the benefit of integrated planning and communication between the upstream and midstream businesses. Adjusted EBITDA for the first quarter was $288 million, which was a 5% increase year-over-year, driven by an increase in gathering, compression, and processing volumes. During the quarter, we generated $192 million of free cash flow before dividends and $85 million of free cash flow after dividends, which was an 8% increase year-over-year. This cash flow was used to finance a portion of the acquisition and opportunistically repurchase shares on the open market. Importantly, even after a $1.1 billion acquisition and share repurchases, we exited the quarter with leverage in the low three-times range and over $800 million of liquidity. Looking ahead to the next few quarters, we expect an increase in capital expenditures as we take advantage of improved construction season conditions, in line with our full-year budget. In addition, we expect to see gradual EBITDA growth throughout the year driven by increasing gathering and freshwater delivery volumes. This cash flow profile results in declining leverage throughout the year towards 3.0 times at year-end 2026, in line with our long-term target. In summary, we continue to build on the growth and momentum from our organic investments and accretive acquisitions. These results place us on track to achieve our 2026 guidance, which remains unchanged, and position us well for capital-efficient growth over the next several years. With that, operator, we are ready to take questions.
Operator: Thank you. We will now open the call for questions. At this time, we will conduct our question and answer session. Our first question comes from John Mackay with Goldman Sachs. Please state your question.
John Mackay: Hey, guys. Thank you for the time. Maybe we will start on the in-basin demand side of things. There are a couple of projects floating around, a lot of eyeballs on Monarch, etcetera. I know you guys are saying it is kind of too early; you touched on this in the AR call as well. But do you mind framing up what you could see the opportunity set for AM looking like here, and if you want to use a generic kind of EBITDA per gigawatt or anything like that, just frame up how you are thinking about the AM side of things here?
Michael Kennedy: We are not going to use a generic metric there, but AM is participating in all of those because the vast majority of these need some infrastructure—laterals off existing pipe that Brendan talked about, water infrastructure build-out from the existing infrastructure—and AM has a seat at the table in all those discussions. As I mentioned, we are the industrial builder of Northern West Virginia. We built all of this infrastructure. It has all been a greenfield expansion for us across gathering, compression, processing, and water as we built out the whole system here. So we are the builder of choice, and that is part of the attraction of what AR and AM bring. It is an integrated development between upstream and midstream. We have the resource, and we have the ability to build the infrastructure.
John Mackay: Maybe just to clarify, any sense you could give on how long of a timeline would be needed to support a larger project?
Michael Kennedy: We are mainly talking about everything in-state, so it would not be that long of a timeline. It would be our typical kind of high-pressure build in year one to two to three, not five years out.
John Mackay: Great. And then second question for me: You mentioned the high-single-digit growth target. Could you frame that up a little bit around what that implies for AR's underlying growth? AR came out with a higher growth pace on the last quarter call. Just trying to figure out where that shakes out and then what the AM algorithm off that is. Thanks.
Michael Kennedy: That is off the base business. You get to the high single digit just from integrating the water system in 2027, so just servicing AR from a water perspective gets you that high single digit. If AR actually does pursue three rigs and two completions crews and does not build DUCs and actually completes those, you would be in excess of that high-single-digit EBITDA growth in 2027 and 2028.
John Mackay: I appreciate that. Thank you.
Michael Kennedy: Thank you.
Operator: Your next question comes from Ivan Scotto with UBS. Please state your question.
Ivan Scotto: Hi, team. Thanks for taking the question. I wanted to ask for any additional color you have on how much capital is needed to fully integrate the acquired HG assets, and also how far along that process you think you are at this point?
Michael Kennedy: I think it is $25 million, and we are probably halfway through. I mentioned that the water system, which we cemented in the first quarter, will be done by year-end. The gathering system, which was almost all already integrated, I think it was $5 million to connect that. So it is really around the water, and we are in the midst of it and should be completed by year-end.
Ivan Scotto: Okay. Great. And then just looking forward, where do you feel most of your opportunity set is for incremental returns in the future?
Michael Kennedy: I would say around these data center local power projects. Our base business delivers very high rates of return; it is in the high teens to 20% return on invested capital in the base, and we have that fully mapped out. We have built the whole backbone of the system—the whole water pipes and the large gathering system that we have—so the incremental returns will be building off of that and building off of our relationship with AR and our own ability to build industrial projects in Northern West Virginia. That is the next leg. The base is terrific, with high-single-digit EBITDA growth that we have had for quite some time and will continue going forward, but incremental growth and returns from that will be from these local demand projects.
Operator: Thank you. There appear to be no additional requests for questions at this time. I will hand the floor back to our management team for closing remarks. Thank you.
Dan Katzenberg: Thank you for joining us on today's earnings conference call. Feel free to reach out with any further questions. Have a good day.
Operator: Thank you. That concludes today's call. All parties may disconnect.