ALDX
Aldeyra Therapeutics, Inc.Aldeyra Therapeutics, Inc., a biotechnology company, develops and commercializes medicines for immune-mediated ocular and systemic diseases. The company's lead product candidate is reproxalap, a reactive aldehyde species (RASP)modulator, which is in Phase III clinical trial for the treatment of dry eye diseases and allergic conjunctivitis. It also develops ADX-629, a first-in-class orally administered RASP modulator that is Phase II clinical trial for psoriasis, asthma, and COVID-19; and ADX-219
2-Year Price History
Quarterly Financials & Projections
| Period | Rev | EBITDA | OpIn | NI | OCF | FCF | CapEx | Cash | Debt | Shares | ROIC | IntCov | EV/EBITDA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Est | 2027-Q4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -0.0 | 65,002,305 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -0.0 | 65,002,305 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -0.0 | 65,002,305 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -0.0 | 65,002,305 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -0.0 | 65,002,305 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -0.0 | 65,002,305 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -0.0 | 65,002,305 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -0.0 | 65,002,305 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Act | 2026-Q1 | 0.0 | -3.5 | -3.6 | -3.5 | -5.1 | -5.1 | -0.0 | 65,002,305 | 15,512,769 | 60.3 | 0.0% | -7.4x | -- |
| Act | 2025-Q4 | 0.0 | -6.7 | -6.7 | -6.5 | 28,195,242 | 28,195,242 | -0.0 | 70,041,254 | 15,530,169 | 60.2 | 0.0% | -14.0x | -- |
| Act | 2025-Q3 | 0.0 | -7.2 | -8.0 | -7.7 | -7.0 | -7.0 | -0.0 | 75.3 | 15.5 | 60.1 | -205.9% | -15.0x | -- |
| Act | 2025-Q2 | 0.0 | -9.2 | -10.2 | -9.8 | -8.6 | -8.6 | -0.0 | 81.9 | 15.6 | 60.1 | -261.5% | -19.6x | -- |
| Act | 2025-Q1 | 0.0 | -9.4 | -10.4 | -9.9 | -12.5 | -12.5 | -0.0 | 90.1 | 15.6 | 59.9 | -267.9% | -19.4x | -- |
| Act | 2024-Q4 | 0.0 | -15.3 | -16.6 | -15.8 | -12.0 | -12.0 | -0.0 | 101.2 | 15.3 | 59.5 | -433.3% | -32.4x | -- |
| Act | 2024-Q3 | 0.0 | -14.6 | -16.1 | -15.1 | -8.0 | -8.0 | -0.0 | 112.7 | 15.6 | 59.5 | -413.4% | -30.4x | -- |
| Act | 2024-Q2 | 0.0 | -16.3 | -18.0 | -16.9 | -13.2 | -13.2 | -0.0 | 120.3 | 15.6 | 59.4 | -460.7% | -34.1x | -- |
| Act | 2024-Q1 | 0.0 | -7.5 | -9.4 | -8.1 | -10.0 | -10.0 | -0.0 | 133.0 | 15.7 | 59.4 | -240.0% | -15.1x | -- |
| Act | 2023-Q4 | 0.0 | -4.2 | -6.1 | -4.8 | 0.5 | 0.5 | -0.0 | 142.8 | 15.7 | 59.2 | -155.8% | -8.1x | -- |
| Act | 2023-Q3 | 0.0 | -7.6 | -9.6 | -8.2 | -8.0 | -8.0 | -0.0 | 143.3 | 16.2 | 59.0 | -236.1% | -14.1x | -- |
| Act | 2023-Q2 | 0.0 | -8.4 | -10.3 | -9.0 | -13.4 | -13.4 | -0.0 | 151.7 | 16.2 | 58.8 | -256.1% | -15.9x | -- |
| Act | 2023-Q1 | 0.0 | -15.1 | -16.8 | -15.6 | -9.4 | -9.4 | -0.0 | 165.0 | 16.1 | 58.8 | -302.8% | -30.6x | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q4 | 0.0 | -12.4 | -13.7 | -12.9 | -11.2 | -11.2 | -0.0 | 174.3 | 16.1 | 58.6 | -151.2% | -26.9x | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q3 | 0.0 | -14.1 | -14.8 | -14.6 | -12.6 | -12.6 | -0.0 | 185.3 | 15.9 | 58.5 | -123.8% | -33.8x | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q2 | 0.0 | -17.3 | -17.7 | -17.8 | -20.0 | -20.0 | -0.0 | 196.7 | 15.9 | 58.3 | -117.6% | -42.2x | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q1 | 0.0 | -16.3 | -16.5 | -16.8 | -12.9 | -12.9 | -0.0 | 216.9 | 15.9 | 58.3 | -84.7% | -40.2x | -- |
Multiples vs the company's own history — cheap or rich relative to itself? Historical fiscal years, then TTM, then forward projections (E). Forward rows hold today's price against projected earnings, so the multiple compresses if the company grows into it.
| Year | Price | Rev Gr | EBITDA % | EBITDA | EV/EBITDA | EV/FCF | P/E | P/S |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 6.96 | — | — | -60 | n/m | n/m | n/m | — |
| 2023 | 3.51 | — | — | -35 | n/m | n/m | n/m | — |
| 2024 | 4.99 | — | — | -54 | n/m | n/m | n/m | — |
| 2025 | 5.18 | — | — | -32 | — | — | n/m | — |
| TTM | 1.75 | — | — | -27 | — | — | 0.0× | — |
| 2026E | 1.75 | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — |
| 2027E | 1.75 | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — |
EBITDA in reporting-currency $M. Historical multiples use year-end market cap (split-adjusted price history); TTM & forward years use today's.
AI Analysis
LLM Evaluations
Aldeyra is a clinical-stage biotech facing existential risk after receiving its third FDA rejection for reproxalap, its only near-commercial asset. The company has zero revenue, ~$70M in declining cash (burning ~$7-8M/quarter), $15.2M in debt maturing April 2026, and no clear regulatory path forward. The AbbVie option — the single biggest upside catalyst — is contingent on FDA approval that now appears extremely unlikely. The remaining pipeline (ADX-2191 for retinal disease) is early-stage and would require years of additional investment and dilution. Multiple securities class action lawsuits add further overhang. The company will likely need to access its $75M ATM facility at deeply distressed prices, massively diluting existing shareholders, or pursue a fire-sale of assets. At $1.78/share, the stock still prices in optionality that is almost certainly not there. This is a broken story with a high probability of further value destruction.
Valuation & Metrics
Market Stats
TTM Financial Snapshot
DCF Fair Value Estimate
Forward Outlook & Risk
Short Interest
Options
| Strike | Call Bid/Ask | Call OI | Put Bid/Ask | Put OI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1.00 | $0.10/$1.00 | 0 | --/$0.95 | 0 |
| $2.00 | --/$0.65 | 2 | --/$1.05 | 100 |
| $3.00 | --/$0.10 | 3 | $0.90/$2.00 | 0 |
| $4.00 | --/$0.55 | 0 | $2.05/$2.85 | 0 |
| $5.00 | --/$0.95 | 0 | $1.95/$5.80 | 0 |
Forward Projections & Estimates
Employees
Institutional Ownership
Headline & net flow
In Q1 2026 so far (quarter still filing), institutions are net buyers — bought 12.0% of float, sold 6.0%. 4 filers moved >1% of shares (3 buying, 1 selling).
Ownership composition
Top holders
| Fund | $ value | Cost basis | Δ QoQ | Δ YoY | α life | Fund AUM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knoll Capital Management, LLC | $9.3M | $4.94 | +$0 | +$0 | -4.0% | $180M |
| BlackRock, Inc.Passive | $6.4M | $5.34 | −$146K | +$47K | -0.2% | $5.69T |
| AQR CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC | $4.8M | $2.96 | +$2.7M | +$4.1M | -0.2% | $218.19B |
| VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLCPassive | $4.0M | $1.69 | +$4.0M | +$4.0M | — | $4.04T |
| KINGDON CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.L.C. | $3.6M | $4.55 | +$511K | +$2.3M | -2.3% | $597M |
| 683 Capital Management, LLC | $2.5M | $4.57 | −$51K | +$1.7M | -2.2% | $1.02B |
| D. E. Shaw & Co., Inc. | $2.4M | $4.56 | −$333K | +$2.1M | -0.3% | $118.02B |
| GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLCPassive | $2.1M | $6.33 | +$137K | +$192K | +2.3% | $1.61T |
| STATE STREET CORPPassive | $1.9M | $8.05 | +$44K | +$175K | -0.2% | $2.89T |
| MILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC | $1.7M | $4.20 | +$1.6M | +$1.5M | -0.5% | $127.40B |
| JANE STREET GROUP, LLCMM | $1.6M | $4.30 | +$1.1M | +$1.3M | -0.1% | $92.10B |
| ARDSLEY ADVISORY PARTNERS LP | $1.6M | $5.13 | −$845K | −$1.4M | -0.6% | $656M |
| RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC | $1.5M | $3.60 | +$867K | +$1.3M | +1.2% | $63.91B |
| ACADIAN ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | $1.4M | $4.60 | −$205K | +$1.3M | -0.5% | $70.48B |
| VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLCPassive | $1.4M | $1.69 | +$1.4M | +$1.4M | — | $1.91T |
| JACOBS LEVY EQUITY MANAGEMENT, INC | $1.3M | $4.41 | −$291K | +$1.3M | +0.4% | $23.79B |
| Propel Bio Management, LLC | $1.2M | $1.69 | +$1.2M | +$1.2M | -2.7% | $159M |
| DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LPPassive | $1.1M | $6.37 | +$20K | −$77K | -0.4% | $480.92B |
| GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC | $918K | $4.91 | +$401K | +$708K | -0.2% | $760.93B |
| UBS Group AG | $908K | $3.93 | +$747K | +$749K | -0.3% | $562.11B |
Trading behavior
▸ Compare to holder-profile behavior (across all their stocks)
Biggest decreases this quarter
New buyers this quarter
Top-5 holders · 44.3%
Top Holders Over Time
5-year share-count history (top 10 holders by peak, incl. exited) + price
Analyst Coverage
| Quarter | Revenue | EBITDA | Net Inc | EPS | EPS Range | # Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 Q1 | 1M | 0M | -7M | $-0.11 | $-0.21 – $0.02 | 8 |
| 2024 Q4 | 20M | 0M | -16M | $-0.26 | $-0.29 – $-0.23 | 5 |
| 2025 Q1 | -1M | 0M | -17M | $-0.28 | $-0.28 – $-0.28 | 3 |
| 2025 Q2 | -1M | 0M | -14M | $-0.24 | $-0.29 – $-0.22 | 4 |
| 2025 Q3 | 2M | 0M | -9M | $-0.14 | $-0.14 – $-0.13 | 3 |
| 2025 Q4 | 5M | 0M | -8M | $-0.14 | $-0.14 – $-0.14 | 3 |
| 2026 Q1 | 0M | 0M | -4M | $-0.07 | $-0.07 – $-0.07 | 2 |
| 2026 Q2 | 47M | 0M | -7M | $-0.11 | $-0.11 – $-0.11 | 1 |
| 2026 Q3 | -0M | 0M | -6M | $-0.10 | $-0.10 – $-0.10 | 1 |
| 2026 Q4 | -2.0B | 0M | -8M | $-0.14 | $-0.14 – $-0.14 | 1 |
Corporate
Executive Compensation (2023-2025)
Insider Trading (last 12mo)
| Date | Side | Insider | Title | Shares | Price | Dollars | Owned $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-19 | BUY | DOUGLAS RICHARD | director | 70,000 | $1.40 | $98K | $273K |
| 2026-03-18 | BUY | Alfieri Michael | officer: Principal Financial Officer | 5,000 | $1.42 | $7K | $11K |
| 2025-08-13 | BUY | Alfieri Michael | officer: Principal Financial Officer | 2,500 | $5.30 | $13K | $13K |
| 2025-08-11 | SELL | Machatha Stephen | officer: Chief Development Officer | 22,073 | $5.15 | $114K | $1.14M |
Order Flow (FINRA, ~3w lag)
Filing Risk Analysis
Filing Risk Scores
Aldeyra Therapeutics: Clinical Burn and Class Action Clouds
Counter-Thesis
Counter-Thesis & Recent News
On March 17, 2026, Aldeyra received its third Complete Response Letter (CRL) from the FDA for its lead drug candidate, reproxalap, intended for dry eye disease. The FDA rejected the application citing a 'lack of substantial evidence' of efficacy and 'inconsistent trial results' that raise serious concerns about the reliability of positive findings. Following this third regulatory failure, ALDX stock plummeted approximately 70% in a single session, falling from over $4.00 to roughly $1.24.
The bear case centers on a 'three strikes' regulatory pattern that suggests a fundamental flaw in the drug’s clinical profile or the company's trial designs. The FDA explicitly stated that the 'totality of evidence' does not support effectiveness. With three rejections in 2.5 years (Nov 2023, April 2025, and March 2026), the path to approval is increasingly viewed as broken. Investors face a high risk of further dilution or a pivot to earlier-stage assets as the lead product remains unmarketable despite years of investment.
Multiple securities class action lawsuits (filed by firms including Levi & Korsinsky, Pomerantz LLP, and Faruqi & Faruqi) allege that management made false and misleading statements regarding the consistency of clinical data. Additionally, H.C. Wainwright, previously a bull, slashed its price target by 80% (from $10 to $2) and downgraded the stock to Neutral/Hold, signaling a loss of confidence from institutional backers. Internal financial metrics show a staggering negative return on equity (approx. -58.6%) and operational inefficiencies.
The dry eye disease (DED) market is already saturated with established treatments like Restasis (AbbVie), Xiidra (Bausch + Lomb), and Tyrvaya (Viatris). Newer, successful launches like Miebo and Vevye further crowd the space, making it harder for a thrice-rejected drug like reproxalap to gain any future market share even if eventually approved. Competitors are already entrenched with payers and physicians while Aldeyra remains stuck in the regulatory cycle.
Retail and institutional sentiment has turned sharply 'bearish' according to tracking on platforms like Stocktwits and market sentiment reports. Investors are expressing extreme fatigue and distrust toward management's repeated claims of 'broad-based' activity that the FDA continues to dispute. The 'burn' on shareholders from the 70% price collapse has effectively poisoned the well for retail support in the near term.