Stocks/ACET

ACET

Adicet Bio, Inc.
Healthcare·Biotechnology
$9.31
$87M market cap
Claude Rating
3/10SELL
Revenue
$0.0M
Free Cash Flow
$-91.6M
Rev Growth
+0.0%
FCF Margin
0.0%
P/FCF
--
EV/FCF
--
Fwd EV/EBITDA
--
Fair Value
$4.50
Upside
-51.7%

Adicet Bio, Inc., a biotechnology company, discovers and develops allogeneic gamma delta T cell therapies for cancer and other diseases. The company offers gamma delta T cells engineered with chimeric antigen receptors and T cell receptor-like antibodies to enhance selective tumor targeting, facilitate innate and adaptive anti-tumor immune response, and enhance persistence for durable activity in patients. Its lead product in pipeline includes ADI-001, which is in Phase I clinical study for the

2-Year Price History

$8.30-61.6%
$10$15$20$25volJun 24Oct 24Jan 25May 25Sep 25Jan 26May 26

Quarterly Financials & Projections

Quarterly Waterfall ($ M)
PeriodRevEBITDAOpInNIOCFFCFCapExCashDebtSharesROICIntCovEV/EBITDA
Est2027-Q30.00.0--0.0--0.0-0.0137.6----------
Est2027-Q20.00.0--0.0--0.0-0.0137.6----------
Est2027-Q10.00.0--0.0--0.0-0.0137.6----------
Est2026-Q40.00.0--0.0--0.0-0.0137.6----------
Est2026-Q30.00.0--0.0--0.0-0.0137.6----------
Est2026-Q20.00.0--0.0--0.0-0.0137.6----------
Est2026-Q10.00.0--0.0--0.0-0.0137.6----------
Act2026-Q10.0-20.2-21.6-20.2-21.5-21.5-0.0137.613.910.7-195.9%-879.5x--
Est2025-Q40.00.0--0.0--0.0-0.0137.6----------
Act2025-Q40.0-29.0-31.9-30.5-20.9-20.9-0.0158.514.76.9-196.8%-1209.1x--
Act2025-Q30.0-25.3-28.0-26.9-22.3-22.5-0.2103.115.55.7-719.7%-2105.9x--
Act2025-Q20.0-29.6-32.4-31.2-26.6-26.7-0.1125.015.45.7-843.6%----
Act2025-Q10.0-26.5-29.9-28.2-25.4-26.9-1.5150.416.35.7-735.9%----
Act2024-Q40.0-27.1-30.7-28.7-24.1-24.3-0.2176.317.25.5-400.1%-27103.0x--
Act2024-Q30.0-28.9-33.2-30.5-22.0-22.4-0.4202.118.25.7-231.8%-28885.0x--
Act2024-Q20.0-28.3-32.9-29.9-23.4-23.7-0.3224.119.15.7-158.9%----
Act2024-Q10.0-26.4-30.9-28.0-22.9-23.1-0.2247.620.04.9-113.6%-13181.5x--
Act2023-Q40.0-27.8-31.6-29.5-23.5-23.6-0.1159.720.92.7-603.4%----
Act2023-Q30.0-48.2-52.3-49.9-21.2-22.1-0.9183.321.82.7-959.1%-48239.0x--
Act2023-Q20.0-30.9-34.9-32.4-24.9-26.4-1.5205.522.62.7-308.0%-7722.3x--
Act2023-Q10.0-29.6-33.3-30.9-24.1-26.0-1.9231.623.52.7-179.9%-1558.3x--
Act2022-Q40.0-28.8-31.6-29.9-18.8-25.3-6.5257.721.02.6-127.6%-1107.3x--
Act2022-Q30.0-21.2-23.0-22.0-15.3-20.1-4.8282.721.72.6-72.6%-1178.8x--
Act2022-Q20.0-22.1-22.7-22.5-14.7-17.6-2.9260.622.42.5-87.3%-1228.6x--
Act2022-Q125.05.04.74.64.11.5-2.6277.920.62.915.5%277.1x--
Historical Valuation

Multiples vs the company's own history — cheap or rich relative to itself? Historical fiscal years, then TTM, then forward projections (E). Forward rows hold today's price against projected earnings, so the multiple compresses if the company grows into it.

YearPriceRev GrEBITDA %EBITDAEV/EBITDAEV/FCFP/EP/S
2022143.04-268.6%-67n/mn/mn/m401.1×
202330.24-100.0%-137n/mn/mn/m
202415.39-111n/mn/mn/m
20258.42-110n/mn/mn/m
TTM9.31-1040.0×
2026E9.310

EBITDA in reporting-currency $M. Historical multiples use year-end market cap (split-adjusted price history); TTM & forward years use today's.

AI Analysis

LLM Evaluations

Claude3/10SELLFV: $4.50

Adicet Bio is a clinical-stage biotech with zero revenue, a $584M accumulated deficit, and a history of aggressive dilution that has destroyed shareholder value. The company's sole value driver is prula-cel (ADI-001) in autoimmune indications, where early Phase 1 data in Lupus Nephritis is genuinely encouraging (100% renal response). However, the path from here to value creation requires successful Phase 2/3 trials, FDA approval, and commercialization — all while burning ~$75-80M/year with only ~$103M in cash. The recent reverse stock split and $1.00/share offering are classic signs of a distressed capital structure. While the gamma-delta T cell platform is scientifically differentiated and the autoimmune pivot is timely, the risk/reward at current levels is poor given the near-certainty of further dilution, competition from better-capitalized CAR-T players (Kyverna, BMS), and the binary nature of clinical outcomes. This is a speculative lottery ticket, not an investment.

Catalyst Positive Phase 1/2 data readouts for prula-cel in LN/SLE expected 1H and 2H 2026 could drive significant re-rating; Regeneron collaboration milestone payments; potential partnership deal for ex-US rights
Risk Further massive dilution is virtually guaranteed — the company will need to raise capital again before any revenue materializes, likely at depressed prices, continuing the death spiral pattern that has destroyed ~90%+ of shareholder value
Trend
DETERIORATING
Mgmt
3/10
Quarter
4/10
Exp. Move
-3.0%

Valuation & Metrics

Market Stats

Price$9.31
Market Cap$87M
Enterprise Value$-37M
P/S Ratio0.0x
P/FCF--
EV/FCF--
FCF Margin (TTM)0.0%
FCF Yield-105.3%
Dividend Yield (TTM)0.0%
Annual Dilution88.8%
CurrencyUSD

TTM Financial Snapshot

Revenue$0.0M
Net Income$-108.8M
Free Cash Flow$-91.6M

Revenue Growth (YoY)+0.0%
EBITDA Margin0.0%
Net Margin0.0%
FCF Margin0.0%
CapEx % of Revenue0.0%
SBC % of Revenue0.0%
ROIC-489.0%
WC Change % Rev0.0%
Interest Coverage-1764.1x

DCF Fair Value Estimate

$11.51
+23.7% upside
Fair Enterprise Value$0M
− Net Debt$-124M
= Fair Equity$124M
Revenue Growth0.0% → 1.0%
FCF Margin0.0% → 0.0%
Discount Rate18.0%
Terminal EV/FCF6.0x

Forward Outlook & Risk

Short Interest

Short % of Float6.7%
Short Shares0.6M
Days to Cover5.7
Change (vs Prior)-7.5%
Short % Float History
6.70%-18.10pp
0.0%50.0%100.0%150.0%04-3007-1509-1511-1401-1504-30

Options

Call IV (ATM)169%
Put IV (ATM)--
ATM Spread57.8%
Call $OI (near money)$16K
Put $OI (near money)$8K
ATM ExpiryJuly 17, 2026 (56D)
ATM Strike$7.5
Major Expirations1
Near-money chain · July 17, 2026
StrikeCall Bid/AskCall OIPut Bid/AskPut OI
$2.50$3.50/$8.000--/$4.501
$2.50--/$0.505--/$4.500
$5.00$1.00/$5.504$0.25/$0.7520
$5.00--/$2.450$2.00/$7.000
$7.50$0.10/$4.9015--/$2.7527
$7.50--/$1.400$4.50/$9.500
$10.00--/$4.9094$0.70/$5.502
$12.50--/$2.507$2.80/$7.501
Snapshot: 2026-05-22

Forward Projections & Estimates

NTM Revenue Growth+0.0%
Forward FCF Margin0.0%
Forward EBITDA Margin0.0%
Forward P/FCF--
Forward EV/FCF--
Forward Int. Coverage--
Model Risk Score10/10
Bankruptcy Odds25%
Est. Borrow Rate100.0%
Terminal EV/FCF0.0x
LT Growth0.0%
LT FCF Margin0.0%

Employees

Headcount152
Revenue / Employee$0
Gross Profit / Employee$-8,829
2022: 132 → 2023: 143 → 2024: 152 → 2025: 102 (-8% CAGR)

Cash Runway

18.0months
WATCH

Institutional Ownership

Headline & net flow

NET SELLING

In Q1 2026 so far (quarter still filing), institutions are net sellers — bought 10.2% of float, sold 12.5%. 5 filers moved >1% of shares (2 buying, 3 selling).

Net flow · Q1 2026still filing
-2.4% of float (net)
Bought 10.2% · Sold 12.5%
47 filers reported (last quarter: 49)

Ownership composition

Active
0.6%(-50.6% YoY)
1 filers
hedge / family / endowment
Retail funds
Fidelity, Schwab, 401(k)
Passive
0.0%(-5.4% YoY)
0 filers
Vanguard, iShares, SPDR
Market makers
0.0%(-0.5% YoY)
0 filers
Citadel, Susquehanna
Insiders
13.6%
Form 4 — latest per insider
0%25%50%75%100%2022-062023-032023-122024-092025-062026-03
ActiveRetail fundsPassiveMarket makersRetail direct

Top holders

Fund$ valueCost basisΔ QoQΔ YoYα lifeFund AUM
REGENERON PHARMACEUTICALS, INC.$412K$15.39+$0−$6.2M+16.9%$47.9M
Cost basis is a volume-weighted estimate from accumulation periods within our 13F history; holders who built their position before our window started will show a stale basis. % above the cost basis is the unrealized gain at the current price.

Trading behavior

Smart-money alpha (lifetime, %/qtr)NEUTRAL
Holders
+16.46%
avg per quarter
Holders (ex-self)
+16.91%
excl. this stock
Buyers (this Q)
+0.00%
0 buyers · $0.00B in
Sellers (this Q)
+0.00%
0 sellers · $0.00B out
alpha coverage: 100% of $ has a lifetime-alpha record
Holder behavior on this stocksource: stock
On big dips (−10%+)
-7.4%
how holders react when this stock falls
On quiet Qs
-33.5%
−10% to +10% baseline
On rallies (+10%+)
+1.6%
how they react when this stock rises
Holders' portfolio flow this Q
-0.0%
outflows — trims may be forced
Sellers' portfolio flow this Q
+0.0%
Sellers' overall flow ~ flat.
▸ Compare to holder-profile behavior (across all their stocks)
Holder dip (any stock)
-3.8%
Holder mid (any stock)
Holder rally (any stock)
-16.7%

Top-5 holders · 100.0%

REGENERON PHARMACEUTICALS, INC.--

Top Holders Over Time

5-year share-count history (top 10 holders by peak, incl. exited) + price

07.0M14.0M21.0M28.1M$9.76$87$165$242$3202021-062022-032022-122023-092024-062025-032025-09
hover the chart for per-quarter detailprice (right axis)
ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC11.4MAvidity Partners Management LPRTW INVESTMENTS, LPAbingworth LLPCOWEN AND COMPANY, LLCEcoR1 Capital, LLCPolar Capital Holdings PlcRA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P.7.5MCormorant Asset Management, LLCMORGAN STANLEY74K

Analyst Coverage

Analyst Coverage
Price Targets
Last Year (1 analysts)$18.009330.0%
Current Price$9.31
Analyst Ratings
9
3
Buy: 9Hold: 3Consensus: Buy
Consensus Estimates
QuarterRevenueEBITDANet IncEPSEPS Range# Analysts
2025 Q30M0M-26M$-4.64$-5.71 – $-2.684
2025 Q43M1M-31M$-2.91$-3.23 – $-2.583
2026 Q10M0M-33M$-3.08$-3.20 – $-2.943
2026 Q20M0M-23M$-2.18$-2.57 – $-1.773
2026 Q30M0M-21M$-1.93$-2.78 – $-1.063
2026 Q40M0M-18M$-1.66$-1.66 – $-1.661
2027 Q10M0M-15M$-1.37$-1.37 – $-1.371
2027 Q20M0M-15M$-1.38$-1.38 – $-1.381
2027 Q30M0M-13M$-1.21$-1.21 – $-1.211
2027 Q40M0M-13M$-1.23$-1.23 – $-1.231

Corporate

Executive Compensation (2023-2025)

Direct Pay$10.1M
Incentive & Other$27.3M
Total Compensation$37.4M
% of Revenue0.0%

Insider Trading (last 12mo)

Open-market only (Form 4 P-Purchase + S-Sale). Excludes grants, option exercises, tax withholding, gifts.
Major holders (≥10% beneficial owners)
Buys ($, 12mo)
$6.60M
4 txns · 2 insiders · 5,223,596 sh
Sells ($, 12mo)
$675K
2 txns · 1 insider · 104,658 sh
Recent transactions
DateSideInsiderTitleSharesPriceDollarsOwned $
2026-04-08SELLORBIMED ADVISORS LLC10 percent owner72,939$6.42$468K$0
2026-04-07SELLORBIMED ADVISORS LLC10 percent owner31,719$6.52$207K$212K
2026-02-20BUYRA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P.10 percent owner74,751$7.27$543K$8.60M
2026-02-19BUYRA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P.10 percent owner74,268$7.21$535K$7.99M
2026-02-18BUYRA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P.10 percent owner74,577$7.04$525K$7.28M
2025-10-08BUYORBIMED ADVISORS LLC10 percent owner5,000,000$1.00$5.00M$9.03M

Order Flow (FINRA, ~3w lag)

35.0%retail-11.9pp
14.8%dark+4.8pp
week of 2026-04-13
10%20%30%40%50%60%25-1225-1226-0126-0226-0326-04retail (non-ATS)dark (ATS)
Off-exchange volume from FINRA. Retail = non-ATS (wholesaler PFOF + broker internalization). Dark = ATS (dark-pool crossing networks, institutional). Lit-exchange = remainder.

Revenue Breakdown

Revenue Segments

By Product (2018-Q4)
Human Health$85.0M-18%
Pharmaceutical Ingredients$42.0M+25%
Performance Chemicals$36.6M+7%
By Geography (2018-Q2)
UNITED STATES$535.7MNEW
GERMANY$96.7MNEW
FRANCE$36.6MNEW
Asia Pacific$30.3MNEW
NETHERLANDS$12.0MNEW

Filing Risk Analysis

Filing Risk Scores

Adicet Bio, Inc.: High-Velocity Cash Incineration and Governance-Linked Dilution Risks

Overall Risk
7/10
Fraud
3/10
Dilution
9/10
Insolvency
6/10
Earnings Overstated
2/10
Hidden Liabilities
4/10
Legal
3/10
Audit Warnings
5/10
Hidden Upside
8/10
Contextually Acceptable
7/10

Counter-Thesis

Counter-Thesis & Recent News

📰 Recent News

In January 2026, Adicet reached a significant regulatory milestone by aligning with the FDA for outpatient dosing of prula-cel (ADI-001) in Lupus Nephritis (LN) and Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE), potentially lowering administration barriers. This follows positive preliminary Phase 1 data (October 2025) where 100% of LN patients achieved a renal response and were able to discontinue immunosuppressants. The company has extended its cash runway into 2H 2027 via a recent underwritten offering, providing stability through upcoming 1H and 2H 2026 clinical updates.

🐻 Bear Case

The bear thesis focuses on a history of heavy share dilution (shares outstanding grew ~77% in late 2025) and a recent reverse stock split implemented to maintain NASDAQ listing requirements. Critics argue that the company's lack of revenue and projected 2025 net loss of $1.13 per share make it a high-risk 'money pit.' Furthermore, the reliance on Vδ1 gamma-delta T cells is unproven, as no therapy using this specific platform has yet received FDA approval, creating high regulatory and execution hurdles.

🚩 Red Flags

A major red flag is the technical 'Strong Sell' signal from some quantitative models (e.g., Intellectia AI) due to a persistent falling price trend despite positive clinical press releases. Additionally, while the cash runway is extended, the ongoing high burn rate and recent 30% workforce reduction suggest significant internal pressure to produce a 'homerun' result soon or face further restructuring. The reverse split is often viewed by contrarians as a sign of fundamental weakness in stock demand.

⚔️ Competitive Threats

Adicet faces intense competition from established CAR-T players and other biotech firms targeting autoimmune diseases (e.g., Kyverna, Bristol Myers Squibb). The company also faces internal pipeline risks after halting its ADI-270 program for renal cell carcinoma to pivot resources. If competitors with more traditional alpha-beta T-cell platforms reach the market first or show superior durability, Adicet’s first-mover advantage in gamma-delta T cells could be negated.

💬 Customer Sentiment

Clinical trial participant sentiment is exceptionally high based on early efficacy reports; 100% of evaluable LN patients saw rapid, sustained reductions in disease activity (SLEDAI-2K) and improved renal function. Patients in the study successfully tapered or discontinued corticosteroids, a major 'quality of life' win that suggests high potential demand for prula-cel as a one-time 'immune reset' over chronic immunosuppressive therapy.