Stocks/AARD

AARD

Aardvark Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock
Healthcare·Biotechnology
$4.11
$90M market cap
Revenue
$0.0M
Free Cash Flow
$-33.3M
Rev Growth
+0.0%
FCF Margin
0.0%
P/FCF
--
EV/FCF
--
Fwd EV/EBITDA
--
Fair Value
--
Upside
--

Aardvark Therapeutics, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on developing small-molecule therapeutics to activate innate homeostatic pathways for the treatment of metabolic diseases. Its lead product candidate is the ARD-101, an oral gut-restricted small-molecule agonist of certain targeting bitter taste receptors expressed in the gut lumen that is in Phase III clinical trial for hyperphagia associated with Prader-Willi Syndrome, as well as in Phase II clinical trial for hyp

2-Year Price History

$4.54-65.9%
$4.0$6.0$8.0$10$12$14$16volFeb 25May 25Jul 25Oct 25Dec 25Mar 26May 26

Quarterly Financials & Projections

Quarterly Waterfall ($ M)
PeriodRevEBITDAOpInNIOCFFCFCapExCashDebtSharesROICIntCovEV/EBITDA
Act2026-Q10.0-22.5-22.5-21.6-18.9-18.9-0.091.20.321.8-606.9%----
Act2025-Q40.0-18.7-18.7-17.6-14.4-14.4-0.0110.00.421.8-213.2%----

Valuation & Metrics

Market Stats

Price$4.11
Market Cap$90M
Enterprise Value$-1M
P/S Ratio0.0x
P/FCF--
EV/FCF--
FCF Margin (TTM)0.0%
FCF Yield-37.1%
Dividend Yield (TTM)--
Annual Dilution0.0%
CurrencyUSD

TTM Financial Snapshot

Revenue$0.0M
Net Income$-39.2M
Free Cash Flow$-33.3M

Revenue Growth (YoY)+0.0%
EBITDA Margin0.0%
Net Margin0.0%
FCF Margin0.0%
CapEx % of Revenue0.0%
SBC % of Revenue0.0%
ROIC-410.1%
WC Change % Rev0.0%
Interest Coverage--

Forward Outlook & Risk

Short Interest

Short % of Float--
Short Shares1.3M
Days to Cover8.8
Change (vs Prior)+9.4%
Need at least 2 settlement dates for chart

Employees

Headcount22
Revenue / Employee$0
Gross Profit / Employee$0

Cash Runway

32.9months
WATCH

Institutional Ownership

Headline & net flow

NEUTRAL
Net flow · still filing
No float data — flow unavailable.

Ownership composition

Active
30.4%(-32.6% YoY)
70 filers
hedge / family / endowment
Retail funds
Fidelity, Schwab, 401(k)
Passive
7.9%(+6.0% YoY)
8 filers
Vanguard, iShares, SPDR
Market makers
0.0%(+0.0% YoY)
1 filers
Citadel, Susquehanna
Insiders
Form 4 — latest per insider
0%25%50%75%100%2025-032025-062025-092025-122026-03
ActiveRetail fundsPassiveMarket makersRetail direct

Top holders

Fund$ valueCost basisΔ QoQΔ YoYα lifeFund AUM
Decheng Capital LLC$14.8M$7.51+$0+$0-0.4%$661M
CITADEL ADVISORS LLC$4.7M$7.88−$175K−$118K-0.4%$138.22B
Laurion Capital Management LP$3.9M$8.79+$74K+$853K+2.9%$1.01B
BlackRock, Inc.Passive$3.0M$13.01+$31K+$2.9M-0.2%$5.69T
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLCPassive$2.1M$3.77+$2.1M+$2.1M$4.04T
Polygon Management Ltd.$1.2M$3.77+$1.2M+$1.2M-4.1%$509M
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLCPassive$1.2M$11.82+$44K+$942K+2.3%$1.61T
ADAGE CAPITAL PARTNERS GP, L.L.C.$1.1M$9.89−$189K+$189K-0.1%$64.61B
STATE STREET CORPPassive$751K$11.32+$155K+$751K-0.2%$2.89T
TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP$616K$10.67+$130K+$558K-0.9%$117.03B
UBS Group AG$595K$6.16+$494K+$540K-0.3%$562.11B
AQR CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC$507K$3.77+$507K+$507K-0.2%$218.19B
MILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC$371K$12.45−$1.5M+$123K-0.5%$127.40B
NORTHERN TRUST CORPPassive$334K$12.41−$3K+$281K-0.2%$755.34B
VANGUARD FIDUCIARY TRUST COPassive$314K$3.77+$314K+$314K$395.83B
VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLCPassive$283K$3.77+$283K+$283K$1.91T
Woodline Partners LP$273K$3.77+$273K+$273K-0.1%$26.43B
RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC$267K$3.77+$267K+$267K+1.2%$63.91B
CANTOR FITZGERALD, L. P.$251K$9.33−$94K+$0-3.1%$2.75B
CITIGROUP INC$174K$4.31+$171K+$174K-0.3%$156.55B
Cost basis is a volume-weighted estimate from accumulation periods within our 13F history; holders who built their position before our window started will show a stale basis. % above the cost basis is the unrealized gain at the current price.

Trading behavior

Smart-money alpha (lifetime, %/qtr)BEARISH
Holders
-0.59%
avg per quarter
Holders (ex-self)
-0.13%
excl. this stock
Buyers (this Q)
-1.58%
34 buyers · $0.01B in
Sellers (this Q)
-0.43%
26 sellers · $0.03B out
alpha coverage: 93% of $ has a lifetime-alpha record
Holder behavior on this stocksource: stock
On big dips (−10%+)
-10.5%
how holders react when this stock falls
On quiet Qs
+4.1%
−10% to +10% baseline
On rallies (+10%+)
+15.0%
how they react when this stock rises
Holders' portfolio flow this Q
-2.0%
outflows — trims may be forced
Sellers' portfolio flow this Q
+2.1%
Sellers grew AUM elsewhere — opinionated cut of this stock.
▸ Compare to holder-profile behavior (across all their stocks)
Holder dip (any stock)
-5.6%
Holder mid (any stock)
-6.5%
Holder rally (any stock)
-13.9%

Top Holders Over Time

5-year share-count history (top 10 holders by peak, incl. exited) + price

02.0M3.9M5.9M7.9M$3.77$6.21$8.64$11$142025-032025-062025-092025-122026-03
hover the chart for per-quarter detailprice (right axis)
Decheng Capital LLC3.9MCITADEL ADVISORS LLC1.2MLaurion Capital Management LP1.0MCormorant Asset Management, LLCMILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC98KSymBiosis Capital Partners, LLCADAGE CAPITAL PARTNERS GP, L.L.C.300KSILVERARC CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC34KSchonfeld Strategic Advisors LLCBRAIDWELL LP

Analyst Coverage

Analyst Coverage
Price Targets
Last Quarter (2 analysts)$4.50950.0%
Last Year (6 analysts)$22.1743940.0%
Current Price$4.11
Analyst Ratings
4
4
1
Buy: 4Hold: 4Sell: 1Consensus: Buy

Corporate

Insider Trading (last 12mo)

Open-market only (Form 4 P-Purchase + S-Sale). Excludes grants, option exercises, tax withholding, gifts.
Officers & directors
Buys ($, 12mo)
$92K
2 txns · 1 insider · 9,000 sh
Sells ($, 12mo)
$0
0 txns · 0 insiders · 0 sh
Major holders (≥10% beneficial owners)
Buys ($, 12mo)
$359K
5 txns · 1 insider · 37,000 sh
Sells ($, 12mo)
$0
0 txns · 0 insiders · 0 sh
Recent transactions
DateSideInsiderTitleSharesPriceDollarsOwned $
2025-12-11BUYLee Tien-Lidirector, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer7,000$14.48$101K$22.48M
2025-12-11BUYSun Nelsonofficer: Chief Financial Officer3,000$14.40$43K$1.56M
2025-09-15BUYLee Tien-Lidirector, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer10,000$9.66$97K$14.91M
2025-09-12BUYLee Tien-Lidirector, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer5,000$8.50$43K$13.04M
2025-09-11BUYLee Tien-Lidirector, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer6,000$7.82$47K$11.95M
2025-09-10BUYLee Tien-Lidirector, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer9,000$7.91$71K$12.05M
2025-09-09BUYSun Nelsonofficer: Chief Financial Officer6,000$8.07$48K$852K

Order Flow (FINRA, ~3w lag)

24.1%retail+0.2pp
23.4%dark+2.2pp
week of 2026-04-13
10%20%30%40%25-0225-0425-0725-0925-1226-0326-04retail (non-ATS)dark (ATS)
Off-exchange volume from FINRA. Retail = non-ATS (wholesaler PFOF + broker internalization). Dark = ATS (dark-pool crossing networks, institutional). Lit-exchange = remainder.

Filing Risk Analysis

Filing Risk Scores

AARDVARK THERAPEUTICS: Related Party Debt Forgiveness and Massive Off-Balance Sheet Milestones

Overall Risk
7/10
Fraud
4/10
Dilution
8/10
Insolvency
6/10
Earnings Overstated
2/10
Hidden Liabilities
9/10
Legal
3/10
Audit Warnings
5/10
Hidden Upside
4/10
Contextually Acceptable
6/10