AARD
Aardvark Therapeutics, Inc. Common StockHealthcare·Biotechnology
$4.11
$90M market cap
Revenue
$0.0M
Free Cash Flow
$-33.3M
Rev Growth
+0.0%
FCF Margin
0.0%
P/FCF
--
EV/FCF
--
Fwd EV/EBITDA
--
Fair Value
--
Upside
--
Aardvark Therapeutics, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on developing small-molecule therapeutics to activate innate homeostatic pathways for the treatment of metabolic diseases. Its lead product candidate is the ARD-101, an oral gut-restricted small-molecule agonist of certain targeting bitter taste receptors expressed in the gut lumen that is in Phase III clinical trial for hyperphagia associated with Prader-Willi Syndrome, as well as in Phase II clinical trial for hyp
2-Year Price History
$4.54-65.9%
Quarterly Financials & Projections
Quarterly Waterfall ($ M)
| Period | Rev | EBITDA | OpIn | NI | OCF | FCF | CapEx | Cash | Debt | Shares | ROIC | IntCov | EV/EBITDA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Act | 2026-Q1 | 0.0 | -22.5 | -22.5 | -21.6 | -18.9 | -18.9 | -0.0 | 91.2 | 0.3 | 21.8 | -606.9% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2025-Q4 | 0.0 | -18.7 | -18.7 | -17.6 | -14.4 | -14.4 | -0.0 | 110.0 | 0.4 | 21.8 | -213.2% | -- | -- |
Valuation & Metrics
Market Stats
Price$4.11
Market Cap$90M
Enterprise Value$-1M
P/S Ratio0.0x
P/FCF--
EV/FCF--
FCF Margin (TTM)0.0%
FCF Yield-37.1%
Dividend Yield (TTM)--
Annual Dilution0.0%
CurrencyUSD
TTM Financial Snapshot
Revenue$0.0M
Net Income$-39.2M
Free Cash Flow$-33.3M
Revenue Growth (YoY)+0.0%
EBITDA Margin0.0%
Net Margin0.0%
FCF Margin0.0%
CapEx % of Revenue0.0%
SBC % of Revenue0.0%
ROIC-410.1%
WC Change % Rev0.0%
Interest Coverage--
Forward Outlook & Risk
Short Interest
Short % of Float--
Short Shares1.3M
Days to Cover8.8
Change (vs Prior)+9.4%
Need at least 2 settlement dates for chart
Employees
Headcount22
Revenue / Employee$0
Gross Profit / Employee$0
Cash Runway
32.9months
WATCH
Institutional Ownership
Headline & net flow
NEUTRAL
Net flow · —still filing
No float data — flow unavailable.
Ownership composition
Active
30.4%(-32.6% YoY)
70 filers
hedge / family / endowment
Retail funds
—
Fidelity, Schwab, 401(k)
Passive
7.9%(+6.0% YoY)
8 filers
Vanguard, iShares, SPDR
Market makers
0.0%(+0.0% YoY)
1 filers
Citadel, Susquehanna
Insiders
—
Form 4 — latest per insider
ActiveRetail fundsPassiveMarket makersRetail direct
Top holders
| Fund | $ value | Cost basis | Δ QoQ | Δ YoY | α life | Fund AUM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Decheng Capital LLC | $14.8M | $7.51 | +$0 | +$0 | -0.4% | $661M |
| CITADEL ADVISORS LLC | $4.7M | $7.88 | −$175K | −$118K | -0.4% | $138.22B |
| Laurion Capital Management LP | $3.9M | $8.79 | +$74K | +$853K | +2.9% | $1.01B |
| BlackRock, Inc.Passive | $3.0M | $13.01 | +$31K | +$2.9M | -0.2% | $5.69T |
| VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLCPassive | $2.1M | $3.77 | +$2.1M | +$2.1M | — | $4.04T |
| Polygon Management Ltd. | $1.2M | $3.77 | +$1.2M | +$1.2M | -4.1% | $509M |
| GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLCPassive | $1.2M | $11.82 | +$44K | +$942K | +2.3% | $1.61T |
| ADAGE CAPITAL PARTNERS GP, L.L.C. | $1.1M | $9.89 | −$189K | +$189K | -0.1% | $64.61B |
| STATE STREET CORPPassive | $751K | $11.32 | +$155K | +$751K | -0.2% | $2.89T |
| TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP | $616K | $10.67 | +$130K | +$558K | -0.9% | $117.03B |
| UBS Group AG | $595K | $6.16 | +$494K | +$540K | -0.3% | $562.11B |
| AQR CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC | $507K | $3.77 | +$507K | +$507K | -0.2% | $218.19B |
| MILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC | $371K | $12.45 | −$1.5M | +$123K | -0.5% | $127.40B |
| NORTHERN TRUST CORPPassive | $334K | $12.41 | −$3K | +$281K | -0.2% | $755.34B |
| VANGUARD FIDUCIARY TRUST COPassive | $314K | $3.77 | +$314K | +$314K | — | $395.83B |
| VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLCPassive | $283K | $3.77 | +$283K | +$283K | — | $1.91T |
| Woodline Partners LP | $273K | $3.77 | +$273K | +$273K | -0.1% | $26.43B |
| RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC | $267K | $3.77 | +$267K | +$267K | +1.2% | $63.91B |
| CANTOR FITZGERALD, L. P. | $251K | $9.33 | −$94K | +$0 | -3.1% | $2.75B |
| CITIGROUP INC | $174K | $4.31 | +$171K | +$174K | -0.3% | $156.55B |
Cost basis is a volume-weighted estimate from accumulation periods within our 13F history; holders who built their position before our window started will show a stale basis. % above the cost basis is the unrealized gain at the current price.
Trading behavior
Smart-money alpha (lifetime, %/qtr)BEARISH
Holders
-0.59%
avg per quarter
Holders (ex-self)
-0.13%
excl. this stock
Buyers (this Q)
-1.58%
34 buyers · $0.01B in
Sellers (this Q)
-0.43%
26 sellers · $0.03B out
alpha coverage: 93% of $ has a lifetime-alpha record
Holder behavior on this stocksource: stock
On big dips (−10%+)
-10.5%
how holders react when this stock falls
On quiet Qs
+4.1%
−10% to +10% baseline
On rallies (+10%+)
+15.0%
how they react when this stock rises
Holders' portfolio flow this Q
-2.0%
outflows — trims may be forced
Sellers' portfolio flow this Q
+2.1%
Sellers grew AUM elsewhere — opinionated cut of this stock.
▸ Compare to holder-profile behavior (across all their stocks)
Holder dip (any stock)
-5.6%
Holder mid (any stock)
-6.5%
Holder rally (any stock)
-13.9%
Biggest decreases this quarter
SymBiosis Capital Partners, LLCexited−$6.3MMILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC−$1.5Mα-0.5SILVERARC CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC−$1.0Mα-0.2SUPERSTRING CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LPexited−$912KSchonfeld Strategic Advisors LLCexited−$658KPropel Bio Management, LLCexited−$609KPoint72 Asset Management, L.P.exited−$485KJump Financial, LLCexited−$454KHRT FINANCIAL LPexited−$407KCresset Asset Management, LLC−$371Kα-0.0
New buyers this quarter
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC+$0.00BPolygon Management Ltd.+$0.00Bα-4.1AQR CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC+$0.00Bα-0.2VANGUARD FIDUCIARY TRUST CO+$0.00BVANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC+$0.00BWoodline Partners LP+$0.00Bα-0.1RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC+$0.00Bα+1.2PRELUDE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC+$0.00Bα+1.4
Top-5 holders · 73.9%
Decheng Capital LLC--
CITADEL ADVISORS LLC--
Laurion Capital Management LP--
BlackRock, Inc.--
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC--
Top Holders Over Time
5-year share-count history (top 10 holders by peak, incl. exited) + price
hover the chart for per-quarter detailprice (right axis)
Decheng Capital LLC3.9MCITADEL ADVISORS LLC1.2MLaurion Capital Management LP1.0MCormorant Asset Management, LLC—MILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC98KSymBiosis Capital Partners, LLC—ADAGE CAPITAL PARTNERS GP, L.L.C.300KSILVERARC CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC34KSchonfeld Strategic Advisors LLC—BRAIDWELL LP—
Analyst Coverage
Analyst Coverage
Price Targets
Last Quarter (2 analysts)$4.50950.0%
Last Year (6 analysts)$22.1743940.0%
Current Price$4.11
Analyst Ratings
4
4
1
Buy: 4Hold: 4Sell: 1Consensus: Buy
Corporate
Insider Trading (last 12mo)
Open-market only (Form 4 P-Purchase + S-Sale). Excludes grants, option exercises, tax withholding, gifts.
Officers & directors
Buys ($, 12mo)
$92K
2 txns · 1 insider · 9,000 sh
Sells ($, 12mo)
$0
0 txns · 0 insiders · 0 sh
Major holders (≥10% beneficial owners)
Buys ($, 12mo)
$359K
5 txns · 1 insider · 37,000 sh
Sells ($, 12mo)
$0
0 txns · 0 insiders · 0 sh
Recent transactions
| Date | Side | Insider | Title | Shares | Price | Dollars | Owned $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-11 | BUY | Lee Tien-Li | director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer | 7,000 | $14.48 | $101K | $22.48M |
| 2025-12-11 | BUY | Sun Nelson | officer: Chief Financial Officer | 3,000 | $14.40 | $43K | $1.56M |
| 2025-09-15 | BUY | Lee Tien-Li | director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer | 10,000 | $9.66 | $97K | $14.91M |
| 2025-09-12 | BUY | Lee Tien-Li | director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer | 5,000 | $8.50 | $43K | $13.04M |
| 2025-09-11 | BUY | Lee Tien-Li | director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer | 6,000 | $7.82 | $47K | $11.95M |
| 2025-09-10 | BUY | Lee Tien-Li | director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer | 9,000 | $7.91 | $71K | $12.05M |
| 2025-09-09 | BUY | Sun Nelson | officer: Chief Financial Officer | 6,000 | $8.07 | $48K | $852K |
Order Flow (FINRA, ~3w lag)
24.1%retail+0.2pp
23.4%dark+2.2pp
week of 2026-04-13
Off-exchange volume from FINRA. Retail = non-ATS (wholesaler PFOF + broker internalization). Dark = ATS (dark-pool crossing networks, institutional). Lit-exchange = remainder.
Filing Risk Analysis
Filing Risk Scores
AARDVARK THERAPEUTICS: Related Party Debt Forgiveness and Massive Off-Balance Sheet Milestones
Overall Risk
7/10
Fraud
4/10
Dilution
8/10
Insolvency
6/10
Earnings Overstated
2/10
Hidden Liabilities
9/10
Legal
3/10
Audit Warnings
5/10
Hidden Upside
4/10
Contextually Acceptable
6/10